2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[notin]

I think the Sox have already unloaded most if not all of their non-tenders...

[Bellhorn04]

I think the Sox have already unloaded most if not all of their non-tenders...

 

For some strange reason this discussion is giving me a craving for breaded chicken strips.

[mvp 78]

Last year, Sox grabbed three non tender guys: Plawecki, Pillar and Peraza.

 

Sox non tendered Osich and Marco Hernandez.

[notin]

Last year, Sox grabbed three non tender guys: Plawecki, Pillar and Peraza.

 

Sox non tendered Osich and Marco Hernandez.

 

They also re-signed both Osich and Hernandez...

[moonslav59]

I could see us adding a lot more non tenders, this year, as the quality should be much better, and our bottom 20-22 on our 40 man roster is about as weak as ever.

[mvp 78]

They also re-signed both Osich and Hernandez...

 

Yeah, which means they could non tender a lot of these guys and still keep them in the system (Stock, Brewer, Springs, Walden) if they wanted to. Helps clean up the 40 man and still keep some AAAA guys around for depth.

[mvp 78]

A good primer for today's rule V deadline: https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/11/20/21579098/boston-red-sox-rule-5-groome-mata-seabold-wong-rosario-potts-bazardo-pedroia-hall-stock

 

I agree that Potts/Rosario/Wong/Downs/Groome/Seabold will all most likely be added to the 40 man. Bazardo was on the outside looking in IMO but apparently had a really strong showing in fall instructs as his velo ticked up substantially per scouts. Maybe they'll keep 7?

 

This article suggests Castellanos and Joan Martinez could be kept as well, but I'm not bullish on them.

 

The cuts to the 40 man will be interesting. I don't think Pedey is gone just yet because there has been no smoke from the FO about it. If there was, we'd be hearing about a press conference today.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, which means they could non tender a lot of these guys and still keep them in the system (Stock, Brewer, Springs, Walden) if they wanted to. Helps clean up the 40 man and still keep some AAAA guys around for depth.

 

Exactly, although we may be able to get even better non-tendered players than those you listed to sign minor league deals.

[notin]

Yeah, which means they could non tender a lot of these guys and still keep them in the system (Stock, Brewer, Springs, Walden) if they wanted to. Helps clean up the 40 man and still keep some AAAA guys around for depth.

 

But at that point, coming back to the system becomes their choice. None of them have made themselves such attractive options that they will be fending off offers, but some might be able to secure other opportunities, possibly overseas...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But at that point, coming back to the system becomes their choice. None of them have made themselves such attractive options that they will be fending off offers, but some might be able to secure other opportunities, possibly overseas...

 

Since the 2020 Red Sox team ERA was 5.58, I won't even count anyone average in the 5s. But here are The Lucky Sevens > 7.00 ERA (minimum 6 games or 10% of season)... in ass-ending order: Covey 7.07, Springs 7.08, Kickham 7.71, Godley 8.16, Walden 9.45, Taylor 9.82, Leyer 21.21 (but in only 4.2 IP... so special recognition must also go out to Hall 18.69 and Hart 15.55). Now I never want to type a post like this again.

[mvp 78]

Since the 2020 Red Sox team ERA was 5.58, I won't even count anyone average in the 5s. But here are The Lucky Sevens > 7.00 ERA (minimum 6 games or 10% of season)... in ass-ending order: Covey 7.07, Springs 7.08, Kickham 7.71, Godley 8.16, Walden 9.45, Taylor 9.82, Leyer 21.21 (but in only 4.2 IP... so special recognition must also go out to Hall 18.69 and Hart 15.55). Now I never want to type a post like this again.

 

I think Taylor could/should stick around because he was much better in 2019 before he contracted COVID. He gets a pass for this year.

[notin]

Since the 2020 Red Sox team ERA was 5.58, I won't even count anyone average in the 5s. But here are The Lucky Sevens > 7.00 ERA (minimum 6 games or 10% of season)... in ass-ending order: Covey 7.07, Springs 7.08, Kickham 7.71, Godley 8.16, Walden 9.45, Taylor 9.82, Leyer 21.21 (but in only 4.2 IP... so special recognition must also go out to Hall 18.69 and Hart 15.55). Now I never want to type a post like this again.

 

Not that I have very much in the way of expectations for that crowd, but it might be worth noting the leader in IP of those pitchers was Godley with 28.2.

 

And FIP indicates the numbers from Covey (3.91) and Springs (4.81)

 

With samples that small, every run becomes far too significant. For example, with Taylor and his whopping 7.2 IP, every run was worth 1.23 on his ERA. Give him one or two good defensive plays behind him, and that ERA could plummet to as low as 6.13, which still is not good, but it does show the massive impact of a single play...

[mvp 78]

Not that I have very much in the way of expectations for that crowd, but it might be worth noting the leader in IP of those pitchers was Godley with 28.2.

 

And FIP indicates the numbers from Covey (3.91) and Springs (4.81)

 

With samples that small, every run becomes far too significant. For example, with Taylor and his whopping 7.2 IP, every run was worth 1.23 on his ERA. Give him one or two good defensive plays behind him, and that ERA could plummet to as low as 6.13, which still is not good, but it does show the massive impact of a single play...

 

I feel like Covey was getting beat up every time I saw him pitch. I'm surprised at his FIP.

[moonslav59]

Since the 2020 Red Sox team ERA was 5.58, I won't even count anyone average in the 5s. But here are The Lucky Sevens > 7.00 ERA (minimum 6 games or 10% of season)... in ass-ending order: Covey 7.07, Springs 7.08, Kickham 7.71, Godley 8.16, Walden 9.45, Taylor 9.82, Leyer 21.21 (but in only 4.2 IP... so special recognition must also go out to Hall 18.69 and Hart 15.55). Now I never want to type a post like this again.

 

This is a great post, and it's an area we can improve upon without major financial investments.

 

I'm not usually one to suggest rebuilding the bottom of the roster. I normally suggest building from the top, and through attrition the other players move down slot by slot until all the deadweight players are replaced by mediocre ones- not other replacement level players (or worse).

 

One hope with Bloom was that he could find these gems, at low costs. He's not perfect in this area, and sometimes through quantity signings, you end up with a few that stick and suffer through the trial and error process as some, like those on your list, fail miserably.

 

Hopefully, next season's bottom feeders will be at a much higher level that we saw, this year and even some in 2019.

 

Here are the ERA- for all 25 Sox pitchers with 20+ IP from 2019-2010:

 

202 Shawaryn

176 Godley

153 Springs

 

129 Cashner

125 Johnson

120 Josh Smith

114 Porcello

113 Velazquez

 

106 Eovaldi

104 Mazza

100 Weber

 

97 Perez, Walden & Brewer

96 Brasier

91 Sale

89 Price

88 Hembree

 

83 Taylor

82 D Hern & Barnes

80 Lakins

79 ERod

71 Valdez

 

43 Workman

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not that I have very much in the way of expectations for that crowd, but it might be worth noting the leader in IP of those pitchers was Godley with 28.2.

 

And FIP indicates the numbers from Covey (3.91) and Springs (4.81)

 

With samples that small, every run becomes far too significant. For example, with Taylor and his whopping 7.2 IP, every run was worth 1.23 on his ERA. Give him one or two good defensive plays behind him, and that ERA could plummet to as low as 6.13, which still is not good, but it does show the massive impact of a single play...

 

I was thinking: Imagine Yankee fans reading this discussion on how Red Sox pitcher ERAs fit into the 7 column or the 6 column... then I thought: Imagine Red Sox fans reading this.

 

Baby-Bloomers need us some serious signings, trades, Rule 5s, Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes! Turn and face the strange... Ehhh-SAP.

[moonslav59]

Not that I have very much in the way of expectations for that crowd, but it might be worth noting the leader in IP of those pitchers was Godley with 28.2.

 

.

 

But when you add them all up, it's a pretty large percentage (or way too large) of the 2020 team IP.

 

We had 11 guys with an ERA- of above 150 and another 4 guys between 121-129.

 

We had 17 guys over 102.

We had 6 below 80 and only 9 below 90.

 

That Zack Godley character at 28.2 IP was 6th on the team in IP'd!

28.2 Godley

25.2 Brewer (7th)

20.1 Springs (10th)

19.2 Brice (11th)

15.2 Osich (13th)

14.0 Covey (14th)

14.0 Kickham (14th)

13.1 Stock (16th)

13.1 Walden (17th)

11.0 Hart (18th)

8.2 Hall (21st)

9.2 Hembree (22nd)

7.1 Taylor (24th)

4.2 Leyer (26th)

1.0 Lin, 0.2 Plawecki & 0.1 Peraza should not be counted.

 

Looking at this list, we had 10 of our top 18 pitchers by IP over 5.00.

 

202 total innings combined! The team had 524 IP total!

 

That's almost 40% of all the Sox IP, last year.

[notin]

But when you add them all up, it's a pretty large percentage (or way too large) of the 2020 team IP.

 

We had 11 guys with an ERA- of above 150 and another 4 guys between 121-129.

 

We had 17 guys over 102.

We had 6 below 80 and only 9 below 90.

 

That Zack Godley character at 28.2 IP was 6th on the team in IP'd!

28.2 Godley

25.2 Brewer (7th)

20.1 Springs (10th)

19.2 Brice (11th)

15.2 Osich (13th)

14.0 Covey (14th)

14.0 Kickham (14th)

13.1 Stock (16th)

13.1 Walden (17th)

11.0 Hart (18th)

8.2 Hall (21st)

9.2 Hembree (22nd)

7.1 Taylor (24th)

4.2 Leyer (26th)

1.0 Lin, 0.2 Plawecki & 0.1 Peraza should not be counted.

 

Looking at this list, we had 10 of our top 18 pitchers by IP over 5.00.

 

202 total innings combined! The team had 524 IP total!

 

That's almost 40% of all the Sox IP, last year.

 

And that is what happens when you use the minor league guys who are supposed to be for depth in place of actual starters. But the Sox simply could not spend on anyone any better...

[notin]

Rule 5 draft protection deadlie is tonight.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/mlb-deadline-protect-players-rule-5-draft-2020.html

 

Sox currently have only 4 spots....

[moonslav59]

I was thinking: Imagine Yankee fans reading this discussion on how Red Sox pitcher ERAs fit into the 7 column or the 6 column... then I thought: Imagine Red Sox fans reading this.

 

Baby-Bloomers need us some serious signings, trades, Rule 5s, Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes! Turn and face the strange... Ehhh-SAP.

 

Looking at our 40 man roster hurts.

 

Even some of our "keepers" are thought of as "trade bait" or are over-priced or close to the end of their team control.

 

Yes, we have some promising players not on the 40 man roster, yet, but here is one way to look at the 40 man roster, as is right now (actually 36 players):

 

3-5* True keepers (3 or more years of team control)

Devers (3)

Verdugo (4)

D Hernandez (5)

*Dalbec (6) largely unproven (could be place in lower category)

*Houck (6) largely unproven, too.

 

2 True Keepers with qualifications:

Bogaerts (opt out could remove him from this category)

Sale (overpaid due to injury?)

 

3-5 Keepers with just 1-2 years of team control/some qualified*(untradeable)

*JD (2) overpaid

*Eovaldi (2) overpaid

Vazquez (2)

Beni (2)

Erod (1)

 

3 Serviceable players (3 or more years of control)

Pivetta (4)

Brasier (3)

Taylor (5)

 

1 Serviceable players (1-2 years of control)

Barnes (1)

 

3 Borderline serviceable:

Chavis (5)

Munoz (4)

Arroyo (4)

 

Add the 5 or 6 Rule 5 protectees, and it doesn't help all that much!

[moonslav59]

Rule 5 draft protection deadlie is tonight.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/mlb-deadline-protect-players-rule-5-draft-2020.html

 

Sox currently have only 4 spots....

 

...and maybe 5-6 players to protect.

 

Who goes?

 

Pedey?

or

Stock

Springs

Hall

Brice

Hart

Walden

Wilson

[mvp 78]

...and maybe 5-6 players to protect.

 

Who goes?

 

Pedey?

or

Stock

Springs

Hall

Brice

Hart

Walden

Wilson

 

Stock, Hall and Hart will be in first wave of cuts IMO. That gives them 7 spots for the guys we've mentioned. The rest shouldn't be too far behind.

[moonslav59]

Stock, Hall and Hart will be in first wave of cuts IMO. That gives them 7 spots for the guys we've mentioned. The rest shouldn't be too far behind.

 

I'd add Springs to your list of 3.

[moonslav59]

We may end up claiming several players DFA'd by other clubs, forcing us to DFA more than the 3-4 needed to clear space for rule 5 protectees.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Looking at our 40 man roster hurts.

 

Even some of our "keepers" are thought of as "trade bait" or are over-priced or close to the end of their team control.

 

Yes, we have some promising players not on the 40 man roster, yet, but here is one way to look at the 40 man roster, as is right now (actually 36 players):

 

3-5* True keepers (3 or more years of team control)

Devers (3)

Verdugo (4)

D Hernandez (5)

*Dalbec (6) largely unproven (could be place in lower category)

*Houck (6) largely unproven, too.

 

2 True Keepers with qualifications:

Bogaerts (opt out could remove him from this category)

Sale (overpaid due to injury?)

 

3-5 Keepers with just 1-2 years of team control/some qualified*(untradeable)

*JD (2) overpaid

*Eovaldi (2) overpaid

Vazquez (2)

Beni (2)

Erod (1)

 

3 Serviceable players (3 or more years of control)

Pivetta (4)

Brasier (3)

Taylor (5)

 

1 Serviceable players (1-2 years of control)

Barnes (1)

 

3 Borderline serviceable:

Chavis (5)

Munoz (4)

Arroyo (4)

 

Add the 5 or 6 Rule 5 protectees, and it doesn't help all that much!

 

So... about 10 Keepers, and the rest Jeepers-Creepers.

[mvp 78]

I'd add Springs to your list of 3.

 

There was a lot of talk early in the offseason how Springs was going to stick around. I still can't quite explain it.

[notin]

There was a lot of talk early in the offseason how Springs was going to stick around. I still can't quite explain it.

 

If the 3 batter minimm rule sticks, it does take away the advantage Springs and Hall had...

[mvp 78]

If the 3 batter minimm rule sticks, it does take away the advantage Springs and Hall had...

 

Hall had a 1.321 OPS against LHB last year.

 

It was .981 in 2019.

 

It was 1.582 in 2018.

[oldtimer]

...and maybe 5-6 players to protect.

 

Who goes?

 

Pedey?

or

Stock

Springs

Hall

Brice

Hart

Walden

Wilson

 

We have been speculating on moves for weeks. Now the Rule 5 Draft Protection deadline will force some real moves to occur and much of what has been batted around will be settled. I look forward to real moves being made by the Sox management.

[moonslav59]

We have been speculating on moves for weeks. Now the Rule 5 Draft Protection deadline will force some real moves to occur and much of what has been batted around will be settled. I look forward to real moves being made by the Sox management.

 

The next day or two will see a lot of trades and signings of DFA's players cut to make room for rule 5 players.

 

Let the fun begin!

[mvp 78]

The next day or two will see a lot of trades and signings of DFA's players cut to make room for rule 5 players.

 

Let the fun begin!

 

It's a shame that this won't happen during the week while I'm avoiding work.