2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[Bellhorn04]

Bogey has 2 rings.

 

Yep. I meant "with Bogey and Devers as the left side of the infield".

[Bellhorn04]

I'm a very petty person, but not petty enough to pick out the old posts where you told me that I was wrong for thinking Devers would get called up in 2017.

 

But you could do so in your capacity as Talksox Historian.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Really the only question surrounding Devers is - first or third base?

 

With Cora back in the fold, the most likely answer is third base. This leaves 1B open for Dalbec or Chavis, and very likely means another LHH 1B will be brought into the mix. Mitch Moreland headlines a group of possibilities that also includes Matt Adams, Carlos Santana, Jake Lamb, Justin Smoak, Logan Morrison and Danny Murphy. And also likely Travis Shaw once Toronto non-tenders him...

 

I think this is a question they won't ask until after next season. Cora and Rafie (and the Sox) are certainly expecting improvement and progress at the hot corner now that there's a reunion between mentor and pupil. I also think the same question may be asked about X, at the end of his current contract (if he's still here).

 

As for first, the best player right now is Santana, but he'd also be the most expensive. I just want him to join so we can sing, "Everything's Coming Our Way."

[moonslav59]

I'm a very petty person, but not petty enough to pick out the old posts where you told me that I was wrong for thinking Devers would get called up in 2017.

 

You won't find them, because they are not there.

 

I have always been super high on Devers, and was fine with the time they called him up.

 

My position back then was precisely this: "I trust Sox management to know when Devers is ready for the bigs." I was certain his bat was ML ready but was not sure about his defense and didn't pretend to know more than the Sox brass on that area and his overall readiness. I never, ever said "Don't call him up: he's not ready," nor did I say, "Call him up, right now!"

 

I was thrilled when they called him up- just as I was with JBJ so very long ago.

 

I thought they did not give Bogey enough time at 3B (10 games) to call him up to play out of position, but I felt he was ML ready.

 

I don't usually take strong positions, I know, me, right? No strong positions? on calling the timing of calling up minor leaguers.

Edited November 12, 2020 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

But you could do so in your capacity as Talksox Historian.

 

I could use my cudgel, yes.

[S5Dewey]

The choice need not be all of one or the other.

 

Do I need to say this again?.... "Solid up the middle". Obviously your 'middle' people can't be black holes offensively but anything you get from them that's slightly better than average is a plus. Power and offense from the corners.

[notin]

Do I need to say this again?.... "Solid up the middle". Obviously your 'middle' people can't be black holes offensively but anything you get from them that's slightly better than average is a plus. Power and offense from the corners.

 

Good defense at 3B and RF also helps.

 

Really, the weaker gloves are typically placed at 1B and LF, which are the easiest positions to play....

[Bellhorn04]

Infield defense has changed a bit, of course, thanks to all the wonderful shifts.

[notin]

Infield defense has changed a bit, of course, thanks to all the wonderful shifts.

 

Yes but 1B still remains where you put the guy who can hit but not field. And is also the position least effected by the shift...

[mvp 78]

You won't find them, because they are not there.

 

I have always been super high on Devers, and was fine with the time they called him up.

 

My position back then was precisely this: "I trust Sox management to know when Devers is ready for the bigs." I was certain his bat was ML ready but was not sure about his defense and didn't pretend to know more than the Sox brass on that area and his overall readiness. I never, ever said "Don't call him up: he's not ready," nor did I say, "Call him up, right now!"

 

I was thrilled when they called him up- just as I was with JBJ so very long ago.

 

I thought they did not give Bogey enough time at 3B (10 games) to call him up to play out of position, but I felt he was ML ready.

 

I don't usually take strong positions, I know, me, right? No strong positions? on calling the timing of calling up minor leaguers.

 

Per review of 2017 realistic season view posts:

 

Mea culpa. You did use lots of "I don't think he'll be ready until 2018-2019, but trust management to call him up when he's ready." I think that's terrible fence sitting and a stance I'd never take. However, that's the stance you took at the time. Over and over you stated that they needed to find a bridge for 2017 because Devers wouldn't be ready until 2018. You kept saying he was 1-2 years away. You even wanted to trade him for Quintana after lamenting that DD gutted the farm to get Sale. Prior to his promotion you stated that you "doubt they'll give him a chance in September." But I guess that you couched it with "I trust the management to make the right call" once or twice.

 

At least you weren't one of the posters who said the following:

 

In regards to Devers promotion: "panic move" and "a mistake."

 

"(Sam) Travis will outhit Devers."

 

Outright stating that playing Devers isn't an upgrade from Marrero since Marrero had a better glove. (Marrero had 0.2 fWAR, his only positive fWAR season while Devers had 0.8 fWAR in fewer games).

 

However, the worst part of doing this research was all of the references to Daniel Flores.

[moonslav59]

Do I need to say this again?.... "Solid up the middle". Obviously your 'middle' people can't be black holes offensively but anything you get from them that's slightly better than average is a plus. Power and offense from the corners.

 

100%

[moonslav59]

Per review of 2017 realistic season view posts:

 

Mea culpa. You did use lots of "I don't think he'll be ready until 2018-2019, but trust management to call him up when he's ready." I think that's terrible fence sitting and a stance I'd never take. However, that's the stance you took at the time. Over and over you stated that they needed to find a bridge for 2017 because Devers wouldn't be ready until 2018. You kept saying he was 1-2 years away. You even wanted to trade him for Quintana after lamenting that DD gutted the farm to get Sale. Prior to his promotion you stated that you "doubt they'll give him a chance in September." But I guess that you couched it with "I trust the management to make the right call" once or twice.

 

At least you weren't one of the posters who said the following:

 

In regards to Devers promotion: "panic move" and "a mistake."

 

"(Sam) Travis will outhit Devers."

 

Outright stating that playing Devers isn't an upgrade from Marrero since Marrero had a better glove. (Marrero had 0.2 fWAR, his only positive fWAR season while Devers had 0.8 fWAR in fewer games).

 

However, the worst part of doing this research was all of the references to Daniel Flores.

 

I admitted I did not take a strong position on calling up Devers- one of the few times I sat on the fence.

 

I'm no expert on prospects. I have my opinions, and I loved Devers from the start. I have never had a beef with Sox management's decisions on calling up or not calling up prospects. I did think they rushed Bogey to learn 3B too quickly, but it was an emergency.

 

I don't recall the Devers for Quintana trade suggestion, but I'm not doubting your detective work. There are times, I say, "I'm not sure I'd do this deal, but..."

 

I'm sure I could go back and find 100 times more glowing statements on Devers by me... much more than most posters early on.

 

I was part of the "maybe he'd be better at 1B brigade."

Edited November 12, 2020 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

I was part of the "maybe he'd be better at 1B brigade."

 

I didn't want to go over my notes on that! Would have been too snippy.

 

I'm just glad the Sox didn't move Devers to another team. They won an WS and were able to keep him around. Somehow, DD identified that Devers was their best prospect and he was right to keep him.

[harmony]

Each offseason SB Nation permits one volunteer to play general manager for each team, negotiating with the volunteers for the other teams.

 

https://www.royalsreview.com/2020/11/1/21544545/the-2019-sb-nation-off-season-simulation-official-thread#comments

 

This year the unnamed Red Sox volunteer:

 

-- traded Chris Sale, Nick Decker and $32 million to the Cardinals for righthander Miles Mikolas

-- traded J.D. Martinez and $20 million to the Tigers for lefthander Daniel Norris

-- traded C.J. Chatham to the Athletics for righthander Norge Ruiz

-- declined option on Martin Perez before signing Perez to a one-year, $3 million contract

-- signed outfielder Eddie Rosario to a four-year, $45 million contract

-- signed lefthander Rich Hill to a one-year, $11 million contract

-- signed righthanded reliever Alex Colome to a two-year, $14 million contract

-- signed lefthanded reliever Tony Watson to a two-year, $6 million contract

-- signed lefthhanded reliever Chasen Shreve to a one-year, $2 millon contract

-- non-tendered Austin Brice and Jose Peraza

 

Better deals have been found on this forum.

 

The award for the most lopsided trade goes to the volunteer general manager for the Seattle Mariners:

 

-- a trade of three Top 100 prospects -- Julio Rodriguez, Emerson Hancock and George Kirby -- for one year of Chicago Cubs third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant.

 

Baseball Trade Values assigns median surplus values of $5.3 million for Bryant, $73.8 million for Rodriguez, $19.4 million for Hancock and $14.7 million for Kirby. In other words the proposed trade represented a combined $107.9 million for $5.3 million.

[Bellhorn04]

The award for the most lopsided trade goes to the volunteer general manager for the Seattle Mariners:

 

-- a trade of three Top 100 prospects -- Julio Rodriguez, Emerson Hancock and George Kirby -- for one year of Chicago Cubs third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant.

 

Baseball Trade Values assigns median surplus values of $5.3 million for Bryant, $73.8 million for Rodriguez, $19.4 million for Hancock and $14.7 million for Kirby. In other words the proposed trade represented a combined $107.9 million for $5.3 million.

 

Sounds like a kid who's a big Kris Bryant fan.

[S5Dewey]

Good defense at 3B and RF also helps.

 

Really, the weaker gloves are typically placed at 1B and LF, which are the easiest positions to play....

 

Without a doubt good defense at all positions helps. However, the old maxim of "solid up the middle"is an old maxim for a reason - it's true. Nearly everything I've read agrees that the defensive spectrum is C SS 2B CF 3B RF LF 1B DH, with the top four being 'up the middle'.

[moonslav59]

Without a doubt good defense at all positions helps. However, the old maxim of "solid up the middle"is an old maxim for a reason - it's true. Nearly everything I've read agrees that the defensive spectrum is C SS 2B CF 3B RF LF 1B DH, with the top four being 'up the middle'.

 

Yes. Fenway's RF is more important than many other teams, but SS, C and CF, with 2B not far behind are the top 4.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yes. Fenway's RF is more important than many other teams, but SS, C and CF, with 2B not far behind are the top 4.

 

Especially since second basemen play in right field half the time nowadays... and stand in shallow center behind the bag the other half.

[notin]

Yes. Fenway's RF is more important than many other teams, but SS, C and CF, with 2B not far behind are the top 4.

 

While true, the Sox might have RF covered...

[notin]

Without a doubt good defense at all positions helps. However, the old maxim of "solid up the middle"is an old maxim for a reason - it's true. Nearly everything I've read agrees that the defensive spectrum is C SS 2B CF 3B RF LF 1B DH, with the top four being 'up the middle'.

 

I’ve actually seen that with 2b and CF reversed, which doesn’t change up the middle. And isn’t a rule breaker on that maxim.

 

I think I agree with 5GoldGloves that the shift has impacted/should impact how we look at 2b...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I’ve actually seen that with 2b and CF reversed, which doesn’t change up the middle. And isn’t a rule breaker on that maxim.

 

I think I agree with 5GoldGloves that the shift has impacted/should impact how we look at 2b...

 

The doubleplay -- getting two outs on one pitch -- is just as vital as ever. But maybe the third base "men" are just as much or more important than second sackers these days, at least when playing shortstop in shifts. Such scenarios -- manning the entire left side -- might make a superior defender like Bregman that much more valuable than a guy like Devers.

[notin]

The doubleplay -- getting two outs on one pitch -- is just as vital as ever. But maybe the third base "men" are just as much or more important than second sackers these days, at least when playing shortstop in shifts. Such scenarios -- manning the entire left side -- might make a superior defender like Bregman that much more valuable than a guy like Devers.

 

So the old adage of “Strong up the middle” needs to include 3b about 1/4 of the time...

[mvp 78]

@Rotoworld_BB

Jackie Bradley 'is a priority' for Astros

[kenmeister]

Will you feel any better, if we do not do all that well over the next 2 years and lose Bogey for next to nothing?

 

(BTW, I'd like to keep Bogey, too, but the opt out is real, and we have to consider ways to get better for the long run.)

 

I'm quite bullish on our 2022 chances. But beyond that, part of being a fan is enjoying watching the team win, and another part is getting attached to the players and rooting for them personally. You've been a big JBJ fan all these years, and I've been a big Bogaerts fan.

[moonslav59]

I'm quite bullish on our 2022 chances. But beyond that, part of being a fan is enjoying watching the team win, and another part is getting attached to the players and rooting for them personally. You've been a big JBJ fan all these years, and I've been a big Bogaerts fan.

 

I totally understand where you are coming from.

[Bellhorn04]

Player opt outs in contracts are brutal. Bogey having an opt out after 2022 is worse than him being a free agent after 2022. In the latter case, there's some certainty at least. Instead you have the 'will he or won't he' situation. If the guy tails off like Price and JD, they don't opt out.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Player opt outs in contracts are brutal. Bogey having an opt out after 2022 is worse than him being a free agent after 2022. In the latter case, there's some certainty at least. Instead you have the 'will he or won't he' situation. If the guy tails off like Price and JD, they don't opt out.

 

Agreed. If you think the guy wants to leave, like Mookie (his opt-out was impending free agency), then you're compelled to move him. If the guy wants to stay, like X (so far), then you have to "adjust" his contract; as long as he's still producing -- and part of the plan going forward -- the cost-of-living increase is worth it.

 

But it also has to be looked at from a marketing standpoint. A winning team is the best fan attraction, but as some posters echo, stars are a draw no matter what. This Face-of-the-Franchise value can't be found in WAR, but it's definitely part of what the Dodgers saw in Betts, and which the Red Sox seemed to overlook (at least, some analysts consumed by only quantitative and not also qualitative data).

 

The latter is also a factor that has to be considered when deciding whether to extend Bogie... or to ask him to switch positions for a charismatic Mr. Smiles-type acquisition... and why Lindor may be worth a bigger and better investment than Trevor Story, even though both are comparable players (24.4 vs 20.7 bWAR the past five years) on the verge of their primes.

 

Lindor turns 27 tomorrow, Story turns 28 on Sunday.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Agreed. If you think the guy wants to leave, like Mookie (his opt-out was impending free agency), then you're compelled to move him. If the guy wants to stay, like X (so far), then you have to "adjust" his contract; as long as he's still producing -- and part of the plan going forward -- the cost-of-living increase is worth it.

 

But it also has to be looked at from a marketing standpoint. A winning team is the best fan attraction, but as some posters echo, stars are a draw no matter what. This Face-of-the-Franchise value can't be found in WAR, but it's definitely part of what the Dodgers saw in Betts, and which the Red Sox seemed to overlook (at least, some analysts consumed by only quantitative and not also qualitative data).

 

The latter is also a factor that has to be considered when deciding whether to extend Bogie... or to ask him to switch positions for a charismatic Mr. Smiles-type acquisition... and why Lindor may be worth a bigger and better investment than Trevor Story, even though both are comparable players (24.4 vs 20.7 bWAR the past five years) on the verge of their primes.

 

Lindor turns 27 tomorrow, Story turns 28 on Sunday.

 

In contrast, Bogaerts' bWAR the past half decade is 17.4; still good, but the stark difference is in the D -- 2016-2020 dWAR: Lindor 8.3, Story 7.5, Bogaerts negative 1.6

[moonslav59]

In contrast, Bogaerts' bWAR the past half decade is 17.4; still good, but the stark difference is in the D -- 2016-2020 dWAR: Lindor 8.3, Story 7.5, Bogaerts negative 1.6

 

This is one reason I am open to seeing what return we could get. I'm not for pushing to trade him, but maybe someone offers us a nice package in return.

 

Defense up the middle is a big priority.

 

We do not have a great defensive catcher.

2B is an open slot.

CF is an open slot.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This is one reason I am open to seeing what return we could get. I'm not for pushing to trade him, but maybe someone offers us a nice package in return.

 

Defense up the middle is a big priority.

 

We do not have a great defensive catcher.

2B is an open slot.

CF is an open slot.

 

This is true but depressing. No Fisk/Lynn/Burleson in sight. Which of this century's title teams had the best D up the middle?

 

'04: Varitek/Cabrera/Bellhorn/Damon?

 

'07: Varitek/Lugo/Pedroia/Ellsbury?

 

'13: Ross/Drew/Pedroia/Ellsbury?

 

'18: Vazquez/Bogaerts/Kinsler/Bradley?

 

The Best Team Ever had the most Gold Glovers, with JBJ, Kinsler and Mookie, with Beni a finalist in left, and Moreland a past winner at first. But I may give the edge to the Bearded Bros, after Ross took over in the postseason; Pedey and Stephen Drew were that good in October.