A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

Not sure Thad Ward is close enough. More realistic for him would be end of 2022.

 

Being that close still makes him a better option than Kyle Hart. But then, I think I'd prefer to see Kevin Hart out there on the mound over Kyle Hart...

[mvp 78]

Being that close still makes him a better option than Kyle Hart. But then, I think I'd prefer to see Kevin Hart out there on the mound over Kyle Hart...

 

I don't think Kyle Hart makes another spot start. Maybe if Charlie Zink is the only other option.

[notin]

I don't think Kyle Hart makes another spot start. Maybe if Charlie Zink is the only other option.

 

Ryan Weber, who I am definitely not a fan of, is better option than Kyle Hart. Hart is simply not an MLB pitcher. At least Weber is one every now and then..

[notin]

Available free agents high on my list for the Sox:

 

Keone Kela - who has expressed interest via Instagram in playing for Alex Cora. (He might not run his own account)

Brandon Workman

Yasiel Puig - OK, there is definite baggage,

Kevin Pillar - Hey, Bloom has signed him before.

Jake Odorizzi - but I think he is by far the most unlikely. Still if you;re building for 2022, getting a mid-rotation All Star starter for 3 years is an excellent step.

[mvp 78]

Ryan Weber, who I am definitely not a fan of, is better option than Kyle Hart. Hart is simply not an MLB pitcher. At least Weber is one every now and then..

 

Yes.

[mvp 78]

Available free agents high on my list for the Sox:

 

Keone Kela - who has expressed interest via Instagram in playing for Alex Cora. (He might not run his own account)

Brandon Workman

Yasiel Puig - OK, there is definite baggage,

Kevin Pillar - Hey, Bloom has signed him before.

Jake Odorizzi - but I think he is by far the most unlikely. Still if you;re building for 2022, getting a mid-rotation All Star starter for 3 years is an excellent step.

 

Maybe Pillar and Workman? Pillar more likely than Workman.

[mvp 78]

Puig in RF could be kinda fun.

[moonslav59]

I'm still sticking with my call of Marisnick- now more than ever. He'll be cheaper than most on notin's list.

 

Who is the best 2Bman let on the market?

 

Lowrie?

[moonslav59]

Puig in RF could be kinda fun.

 

Fun like Manny, yes.

 

Fun like Carl Everitt, maybe not so much, although he put up some nice numbers.

[a700hitter]

Have you looked at the rosters of most AL teams?

Yes, and that is why I think they have a chance to avoid 90 losses.

[a700hitter]

Available free agents high on my list for the Sox:

 

Keone Kela - who has expressed interest via Instagram in playing for Alex Cora. (He might not run his own account)

Brandon Workman

Yasiel Puig - OK, there is definite baggage,

Kevin Pillar - Hey, Bloom has signed him before.

Jake Odorizzi - but I think he is by far the most unlikely. Still if you;re building for 2022, getting a mid-rotation All Star starter for 3 years is an excellent step.

There isn’t enough available talent to get this team to .500.

[moonslav59]

There isn’t enough available talent to get this team to .500.

 

Odorizzi and JBJ would get us over .500.

 

We won't sign either, but it's there.

[notin]

Puig in RF could be kinda fun.

 

I've been saying that for months!!

[moonslav59]

Yes, and that is why I think they have a chance to avoid 90 losses.

 

The O's, Rangers, Mariners and Tigers are all horrific. fangraphs projects 65-74 wins for all 4 teams.

 

The Royals and Guardians are projected under .500.

 

It's interesting how they project 6 of the 15 AL teams to be under .500 and 10 of the 15 NL teams to be under .500. I doubt that works out that way, but I think we can all agree the Sox are significantly better than those 6 AL teams and 10 NL teams, of which we won't play most of them.

 

That leaves the Rays (82 projected wins), A's (83), Angels (85), CWS (86) all pretty close to the Sox (88), Astros, Jays & Twins (89). The Yanks are by themselves in the AL at 96 projected wins.

 

I can't see how anyone can say the teams projected between 82-89 wins, all look better than us, on paper, or at least significantly better where they take 2 our of 3 against us every series.

 

Sure, if nobody comes back from injury, and all our players who had down years in 2019 or 2020 continue doing poorly, we may come close to 90 wins, but other teams will experience the same things, too.

 

If you truly believe the 2019 team was as bad as they showed, despite being just slightly different from the record setting 2018 team, then I can see why you see little hope for 2021, but many of those players still on the team from 2018 are still in their primes or not that far past prime to expect something good from most of them. Some were not quite at prime in 2018 or 2019 and could be expected to do better in 2021.

 

Our 2021 health is nearly impossible to project, so much depends on how you feel players like Sale, Eovaldi, Richards and ERod will do, and how many innings they give us.

[notin]

I'm still sticking with my call of Marisnick- now more than ever. He'll be cheaper than most on notin's list.

 

Who is the best 2Bman let on the market?

 

Lowrie?

 

A second attempt at the Travis Shaw experiment?

 

The remaining 2B FA do not thrill me more than just trying Chavis/Arroyo/Munoz

[moonslav59]

A second attempt at the Travis Shaw experiment?

 

The remaining 2B FA do not thrill me more than just trying Chavis/Arroyo/Munoz

 

I see Chavis at a make or break point. We should find out, sooner rather than later, if he's the next Middy or what. With low expectations, this year, why not give him a long enough look to find out- not that he couldn't be cut and comeback with another team, but keeping him around in AAA for the next year or two would just prolong the indecisions. Yes, it's nice to have some AAA depth with ML experience, so even if he does not get a long look, he will not be on the top of our DFA list.

 

I'm not super high on Arroyo, but he, too, might be primed to show he belongs. He's 25, and that's about the age many players start showing they are starter material. The guy only has 300 PAs in the bigs, so what do we really know, at this point. Let's find out. If he could hit like his .775 minor league number, which includes an OBP of .340 and an XBH every 10 ABs.

 

I'm higher on Munoz than many here, but as of now, he's just depth and not even on the 40 man roster, so his chance will only come after Chavis and/or Arroyo have failed or gotten hurt.

 

As everyone knows by now, I want EHern in CF almost FT. Maybe Renfroe can start vs some RHPs he's shown success against, and Beni can vs some LHPs, and each OF'er will need some days off for rest, but EHern is my CF'er.

[moonslav59]

FAs remaining at positions of need:

 

2B (move EHern to CF)

Logan Forsythe

Marwin Gonzalez

Jason Kipnis

Joe Panik

Neil Walker

Daniel Descalso

 

CF

JBJ

Pillar

Jake Marisnick

Jon Jay

Jarrod Dyson

Brett Gardner

Brian Goodwin

Billy Hamilton

Danny Santana

 

SP

Odorizzi

Paxton

Walker

Teheran

Porcello

Arrieta

A Sanchez

Rich Hill

B Anderson, T Anderson, H Bailey, T Cahill, Z Godley, G Gonzalez, C Hamels, M Leake, T Milone, T Ross, J Samardzjija, M Shoemaker

 

RP

Rosenthal

Melancon

Workman

Sawamura

McHugh

Kela

Greene

Clippard

Giles

Peacock

(Several others)

 

??? 1B ???

Mitch Moreland and many others

 

[moonslav59]

Biggest Projected Changes in WAR from 2020 (adjusted) to 2021l

 

No Sox on the leader boards for declines.

 

Devers 7th in projected gain+2.4 in WAR

 

SP'er Gains

Sale 3rd at +2.6

ERod 5th at +2.5

[mvp 78]

Fun like Manny, yes.

 

Fun like Carl Everitt, maybe not so much, although he put up some nice numbers.

 

I was in the stands for a Pedro game against Bartolo and the crowd was chanting MVP at Carl.

[harmony]

Biggest Projected Changes in WAR from 2020 (adjusted) to 2021l

 

No Sox on the leader boards for declines.

 

Devers 7th in projected gain+2.4 in WAR

 

SP'er Gains

Sale 3rd at +2.6

ERod 5th at +2.5

On the flip side, the Seattle Mariners have none on the improvement leader board with Marco Gonzales, Justus Sheffield and Dylan Moore on the decline leader board.

 

FanGraphs apparently prefers the Red Sox pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery and myocarditis.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

On the flip side, the Seattle Mariners have none on the improvement leader board with Marco Gonzales, Justus Sheffield and Dylan Moore on the decline leader board.

 

FanGraphs apparently prefers the Red Sox pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery and myocarditis.

 

That's only one sore-ce...

[moonslav59]

So, minus Beni and plus Sawamura, Codero & Winckowski, and that's now it for the winter?

[mvp 78]

So, minus Beni and plus Sawamura, Codero & Winckowski, and that's now it for the winter?

 

They still need another OFer. Maybe Pillar and Mitch? Marisnick and Mitch?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They still need another OFer. Maybe Pillar and Mitch? Marisnick and Mitch?

 

Good ballclubs need players who can catch the ball and hit the ball. This offseason the last-place Red Sox have added two clunky, swing-and-miss outfielders.

[oldtimer]

So, minus Beni and plus Sawamura, Codero & Winckowski, and that's now it for the winter?

 

Maybe they bring up Duran and/or move E/Hern to CF. Bloom isn't trying to be popular with these moves but instead is trying to build an organization that can compete year by year. Climbing the cliff left by DD, the Sox need to build the farm while improving the winning percent. I was for the Beni move and the Sawamura move (has it become official?)

[notin]

Maybe they bring up Duran and/or move E/Hern to CF. Bloom isn't trying to be popular with these moves but instead is trying to build an organization that can compete year by year. Climbing the cliff left by DD, the Sox need to build the farm while improving the winning percent. I was for the Beni move and the Sawamura move (has it become official?)

 

That is the plan, but it also should not necessarily mean making the team unwatchable for another year...

[moonslav59]

They still need another OFer. Maybe Pillar and Mitch? Marisnick and Mitch?

 

I don't see us signing Mitch. I do think our OF choice will be Pillar or Marisnick.

 

I may be in the minority, and I'm not big Chavis fan, but I think he starts the year on the 26 man roster and is given a chance to prove he belongs on the 26 and 40 man roster at all.

 

Find out as early as we can.

[notin]

I don't see us signing Mitch. I do think our OF choice will be Pillar or Marisnick.

 

I may be in the minority, and I'm not big Chavis fan, but I think he starts the year on the 26 man roster and is given a chance to prove he belongs on the 26 and 40 man roster at all.

 

Find out as early as we can.

 

Won't be Marisnick, who just signed with the Cubs.,..

[moonslav59]

Maybe they bring up Duran and/or move E/Hern to CF. Bloom isn't trying to be popular with these moves but instead is trying to build an organization that can compete year by year. Climbing the cliff left by DD, the Sox need to build the farm while improving the winning percent. I was for the Beni move and the Sawamura move (has it become official?)

 

I don't think we rush Duran. I could be wrong, but what's the hurry?

 

He's still learning the OF position. He'll need, at least, a few months to "get ready." His bat may not be ML ready, either.

 

If we add a CF'er or 2Bman (EHern to CF), Duran may end up being a September call-up, if no OF'er get hurt.

[moonslav59]

Won't be Marisnick, who just signed with the Cubs.,..

 

All the best dominoes are falling fast!