A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

You clearly ignored me on BDC when I was predicting this 10 years ago.

 

It’s not happening exactly as you say, but the Moneyball era tried to find underpaid aspects of the game for poorer teams to capitalize on. First was OBP. Then defense. Then came middle relief, which allowed teams to spend less on the rotation and still be competitive. Tampa and KC have been doing this for a long time...

 

But when Cash yanked Snell in the WS, that was purely a metrics decision, no?

[notin]

Yeah, your 20/20 hindsight answer...

 

Yes, and my hindsight is apparently ahead of your reality.

[notin]

But when Cash yanked Snell in the WS, that was purely a metrics decision, no?

 

That’s one specific decision not related to team construction or salary negotiation. Are you arguing if Snell stayed in, he’d get paid more?

[Bellhorn04]

That’s one specific decision not related to team construction or salary negotiation. Are you arguing if Snell stayed in, he’d get paid more?

 

No, I just think the development of the "third time through the order" philosophy has more to do with analytics than anything else.

[notin]

No, I just think the development of the "third time through the order" philosophy has more to do with analytics than anything else.

 

Maybe, but the Royals and Rays have been pumping the bullpen and spending less on the rotation for years now.

 

Can you name the best starter from the 2015 World Series champion Royals without looking it up? I bet you can name 4 or 5 relievers from that team faster...

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe, but the Royals and Rays have been pumping the bullpen and spending less on the rotation for years now.

 

Can you name the best starter from the 2015 World Series champion Royals without looking it up? I bet you can name 4 or 5 relievers from that team faster...

 

Edinson Volquez? I swear I didn't look it up.

 

I definitely think 'bullpen games' are a cost-conscious innovation...

[Nick]

Days of paying a starting pitcher $30M plus may become fewer and reserved for top 3 in the majors.

 

Look at how Bloom is constructing our rotation.

 

Assuming we pick up club option.

 

1. Sale Singed thr 2025

2. Eovaldi $17.0M-$17.0M

3. Richards $8.50M-$8.50M

4. Perez $4.00M-$6.00M

5. Pivetta $0.80M-A2-A3-A4

6. E Rod $8.30-FA

7 Houck Six yrs of team control

8 Whitlock Six yrs of team control

 

I guess we'll see what happens to E Rod.....we can walk away from E Rod, Richards and Perez after 2021.

 

I know many of you disagree but I like what Bloom is doing.

[Nick]

“I’ll tell you exactly the same thing we told him when we reassigned him the other day,” Bloom said Friday on MLB Network Radio. “He has the physical ability not just to be a good player but a great player. And that stands out every time he takes the field. He’s strong. He’s powerful. He’s fast. The athleticism is there. He re-worked his swing to where now that strength can play in him driving the baseball.

 

And this is what Bloom thinks of Duran. Hell, they want him to take over the center fielder position and move Verdugo to right and have a platoon situation in left. Many of you many disagree but he's our top guy on baseball side and I would listen to him. He's piecing together a sustainable playoff contending team.

Edited March 20, 2021 by Nick

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

By the time he got to “fatter”, I assumed he’d gone all the way back to the days of Babe Ruth and Hippo Vaughn...

 

I really wasn't, and though virtually all my research begins with the Integration Era, I was thinking more of the faces and bodies on my baseball cards when I was a kid. Most weren't porkers, just not quite the physical specimens that tower over modern mounds and often get drafted for their dimensions.

 

Back in 1974, for example, the Top 10 in Complete Games had nine men with 20 or more CG. But to Bell's point, they were all staff aces, which is how it should be -- if a guy was mowing 'em down, a manager let him finish (cough, Nate Snell). From that '74 list, only one had his career cut short via injury: Busby, he of two no-hitters.

 

CG Leaders, 1974: Jenkins 29, GPerry 28, Lolich 27, Ryan 26, Tiant 25, Hunter 23, Wood 22, Busby 20, Cuellar 20, Blyleven 19.

 

Most were also in the Top 10 in Innings Pitched, all pushing 300 IP...

IP Leaders 1974: Ryan 332, Jenkins 328, GPerry 322, Wood 320, Hunter 318, Tiant 311, Lolich 308, PNiekro 302, Grimsley 292, Busby 292, Messersmith 292.

 

Extending it to 200 IP -- ERod's goal he reached for the first time in 2019 -- in '74, the number of hurlers throwing a minimum of 200 frames was 65. In '19 there were 15.

 

1974 was also the third year in a row Oakland won the World Series with ace reliever Rollie Fingers pitching the fourth-most innings in those postseasons, behind the A's top three starters. Just tying this back into the multiple-inning bullpen guy discussion...

Edited March 20, 2021 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[Bellhorn04]

Days of paying a starting pitcher $30M plus may become fewer and reserved for top 3 in the majors.

 

Look at how Bloom is constructing our rotation.

 

Assuming we pick up club option.

 

1. Sale Singed thr 2025

2. Eovaldi $17.0M-$17.0M

3. Richards $8.50M-$8.50M

4. Perez $4.00M-$6.00M

5. Pivetta $0.80M-A2-A3-A4

6. E Rod $8.30-FA

7 Houck Six yrs of team control

8 Whitlock Six yrs of team control

 

I guess we'll see what happens to E Rod.....we can walk away from E Rod, Richards and Perez after 2021.

 

I know many of you disagree but I like what Bloom is doing.

 

"Just win, baby".

 

E-Rod is an interesting one, though. I wonder if they will make him a serious extension offer.

[dgalehouse]

As spring training winds down and opening day approaches, there is hope and optimism in the air. It will be important to get off to a good start and maintain that optimism. It looks to me that the early schedule is very conducive to doing just that. Let's get it on.

[notin]

I really wasn't, and though virtually all my research begins with the Integration Era, I was thinking more of the faces and bodies on my baseball cards when I was a kid. Most weren't porkers, just not quite the physical specimens that tower over modern mounds and often get drafted for their dimensions.

 

Back in 1974, for example, the Top 10 in Complete Games had nine men with 20 or more CG. But to Bell's point, they were all staff aces, which is how it should be -- if a guy was mowing 'em down, a manager let him finish (cough, Nate Snell). From that '74 list, only one had his career cut short via injury: Busby, he of two no-hitters.

 

CG Leaders, 1974: Jenkins 29, GPerry 28, Lolich 27, Ryan 26, Tiant 25, Hunter 23, Wood 22, Busby 20, Cuellar 20, Blyleven 19.

 

Most were also in the Top 10 in Innings Pitched, all pushing 300 IP...

IP Leaders 1974: Ryan 332, Jenkins 328, GPerry 322, Wood 320, Hunter 318, Tiant 311, Lolich 308, PNiekro 302, Grimsley 292, Busby 292, Messersmith 292.

 

Extending it to 200 IP -- ERod's goal he reached for the first time in 2019 -- in '74, the number of hurlers throwing a minimum of 200 frames was 65. In '19 there were 15.

 

1974 was also the third year in a row Oakland won the World Series with ace reliever Rollie Fingers pitching the fourth-most innings in those postseasons, behind the A's top three starters. Just tying this back into the multiple-inning bullpen guy discussion...

 

The “multiple innings” thing is a big part of why I think today’s closers are overrated and pitchers like Gossage are comparatively undervalued.

 

Of course, in building a team today, the specialized closer is a “need” whereas a lights out bullpen workhorse who pitched more innings but in fewer games is a relic from the past...

[jacksonianmarch]

"Just win, baby".

 

E-Rod is an interesting one, though. I wonder if they will make him a serious extension offer.

 

At this point, I’m assuming he’s hitting the market. It would be dumb for the Sox to try and re-sign him now as you don’t know how he will respond to his year off over a full 162. By the time ERod proves he is capable, he would be stupid to sign an extension. If he doesn’t prove it, the Sox will have played the situation well. I’m expecting something in the middle with a trade before the deadline

[Bellhorn04]

At this point, I’m assuming he’s hitting the market. It would be dumb for the Sox to try and re-sign him now as you don’t know how he will respond to his year off over a full 162. By the time ERod proves he is capable, he would be stupid to sign an extension. If he doesn’t prove it, the Sox will have played the situation well. I’m expecting something in the middle with a trade before the deadline

 

Of course you are!

[notin]

At this point, I’m assuming he’s hitting the market. It would be dumb for the Sox to try and re-sign him now as you don’t know how he will respond to his year off over a full 162. By the time ERod proves he is capable, he would be stupid to sign an extension. If he doesn’t prove it, the Sox will have played the situation well. I’m expecting something in the middle with a trade before the deadline

 

And this is why you are not a GM...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

At this point, I’m assuming he’s hitting the market. It would be dumb for the Sox to try and re-sign him now as you don’t know how he will respond to his year off over a full 162. By the time ERod proves he is capable, he would be stupid to sign an extension. If he doesn’t prove it, the Sox will have played the situation well. I’m expecting something in the middle with a trade before the deadline

 

Right? Why would a rebuilding club with designs on returning to the postseason soon want to lock up an ace pitcher just entering his prime in his 20s? He's exactly the kind of guy any GM would love to trade for prospects who might -- I dunno, someday mature into an ace pitcher in his 20s and lead a rebuilding club back to contention...

[moonslav59]

[/b]:OF,75;1373228]Right? Why would a rebuilding club with designs on returning to the postseason soon want to lock up an ace pitcher just entering his prime in his 20s? He's exactly the kind of guy any GM would love to trade for prospects who might -- I dunno, someday mature into an ace pitcher in his 20s and lead a rebuilding club back to contention...

 

Well said.

[jad]

I don't know whether it is simply my own naiveté or the reality of these post-DT and Bloomian times, but I find it impossible to determine whether anything said or done is serious, and equally impossible to say anything outrageous enough to be recognized as ironic.

[Kimmi]

Good point. If modern athletes are bigger/stronger/faster, then why can't starting pitchers go deeper in games on the mound -- like the bad, old days? I'm sure analytics has stats about burn-out, and trainers can cite more frequent injury risk in muscle-joint ratios... but how were smaller/weaker/slower and even fatter pitchers once able to throw hundreds of more innings per year? Maybe the quicker-paced games and four-man rotations kept them in a different kind of condition: more loose, warm, durable, too-desperate-for-jobs-and-money-to-care, etc.

 

It couldn't have been ancient medicine, old-fashioned diets, and obsolete training techniques... could it? Were recreational, pre-craft beer drugs cleaner, cut with less toxins?

 

I'm not sure what the answer to that question is. Analytics has a lot to do with it. I think a lot of it is that owners and GMs want to protect their investments, and therefore managers are erring too far on the side of caution.

 

Also, people in general are much bigger wusses today than we were in the past.

[Kimmi]

And that is undoubtedly the goal of ownership. Players and agents, however, do not necessarily agree.

 

Really what’s happening now is middle relief pitchers get paid more than they used to. The salaries are adjusting, but not how teams want them to...

 

I don't like it. I don't like bullpen games and I don't like the idea of an opener.

[Kimmi]

Days of paying a starting pitcher $30M plus may become fewer and reserved for top 3 in the majors.

 

Look at how Bloom is constructing our rotation.

 

Assuming we pick up club option.

 

1. Sale Singed thr 2025

2. Eovaldi $17.0M-$17.0M

3. Richards $8.50M-$8.50M

4. Perez $4.00M-$6.00M

5. Pivetta $0.80M-A2-A3-A4

6. E Rod $8.30-FA

7 Houck Six yrs of team control

8 Whitlock Six yrs of team control

 

I guess we'll see what happens to E Rod.....we can walk away from E Rod, Richards and Perez after 2021.

 

I know many of you disagree but I like what Bloom is doing.

 

I like what Bloom is doing as well. There will come a time when he signs players to those larger contracts, but I like what he's doing in the meantime.

[Kimmi]

As spring training winds down and opening day approaches, there is hope and optimism in the air. It will be important to get off to a good start and maintain that optimism. It looks to me that the early schedule is very conducive to doing just that. Let's get it on.

 

Six of our first 9 games are against the Orioles. If we start off 3-6, I'm packing it in.

 

Let's go!

[notin]

I don't like it. I don't like bullpen games and I don't like the idea of an opener.

 

Bullpen games are a waste and probably detrimental to the staff. But using an opener does have a certain sneaky brilliance to it...

[jacksonianmarch]

I have zero problem with an opener if you have a guy who can give you 5-6 innings after the opener. An opener without a starter afterwards is a pen game

[a700hitter]

I don't like it. I don't like bullpen games and I don't like the idea of an opener.

We are in agreement.

[moonslav59]

Bullpen games are a waste and probably detrimental to the staff. But using an opener does have a certain sneaky brilliance to it...

 

If we go with 14 pitchers, and some are long men like Andriese and Whitlock or 2-3 inning guys like DHern and Valdez, maybe having a pen game here and there wouldn’t be such a bad idea.

[moonslav59]

I have zero problem with an opener if you have a guy who can give you 5-6 innings after the opener. An opener without a starter afterwards is a pen game

 

We have Andriese and Whitlock, so we could go “opener” or pen game.

[Bellhorn04]

I have zero problem with an opener if you have a guy who can give you 5-6 innings after the opener. An opener without a starter afterwards is a pen game

 

It worked great for the Yankees last year in the playoffs, as I recall.

[moonslav59]

It worked great for the Yankees last year in the playoffs, as I recall.

 

They didn’t do too well in games started by traditional starters either.

[jacksonianmarch]

It worked great for the Yankees last year in the playoffs, as I recall.

 

No kidding, right? I am really not a fan of openers. Pitcher's are creatures of habit more than probably any other individual position in sports. You do everything you can not to f*** up that rhythm.

 

Our ace pitcher in college wouldn't talk to anyone before a game. He was always there 3 hours early, got stretched out, threw, ran, everything in silence with headphones on. Coaches and captains told us not to talk to him on game day. Funny thing is, he was the loudest SOB on days he wasn't pitching! And then he would go out there, first words were with his catcher as he took warmups. Then he would just shut down the other team. As soon as he was pulled, he was the loudest guy on the bench