A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

I hate the freaking opener play. I'm delighted whenever it fails.

[moonslav59]

I’m not sure if the opener strategy will catch on and spread, but it has worked for some teams.

 

The plan need not mess up the other 4 starters’ rythym, or the pitcher you use for 4-5 innings after you pull the opener, if that guy has been used in relief for a while up to the point where he’s needed.

 

For example, say we’ve been using Andriese out of the pen for a month, sometimes for 3-5 IP, then a starter needs to miss a start. It’s not messing Andriese up by brining him in the game after an opener, and probably not even if he is used that way for more games than just one here and there.

 

To me, the jury is still out on the concept, but hey, I’m for robo umps.

[Bellhorn04]

Is there any purpose to the opener play other than trying to screw up the other team's starting lineup strategy?

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure what the answer to that question is. Analytics has a lot to do with it. I think a lot of it is that owners and GMs want to protect their investments, and therefore managers are erring too far on the side of caution.

 

Also, people in general are much bigger wusses today than we were in the past.

 

I certainly get what you're saying, but there are so many pitchers who end up needing Tommy John surgery now. I don't feel quite right calling them wusses.

[Kimmi]

Bullpen games are a waste and probably detrimental to the staff. But using an opener does have a certain sneaky brilliance to it...

 

The idea of an opener absolutely does have a brilliance to it.

 

I still don't like it.

[Kimmi]

We are in agreement.

 

I really liked the days when we had those lineups that would work the counts and just wear the starting pitcher down. There is no longer much reward to being able to get a starter's pitch count up and knock him out of the game early.

 

On the other side, the days of a pitcher pitching a complete game are almost all but history.

[moonslav59]

[/b];1373273]Is there any purpose to the opener play other than trying to screw up the other team's starting lineup strategy?

 

Yes. You can select a one inning pitcher that matches up well with the top of the opponent’s order, and the long guy you bring in next does not usually start off facing the best 4 hitters, unless the batted 9 guys in the first.

 

For those who believe in the third time facing the same batters is a big concern, the long guy, if he’s doing well, can pitch 4-5 inning without facing the top of the order more than twice.

[Kimmi]

Is there any purpose to the opener play other than trying to screw up the other team's starting lineup strategy?

 

You get one of your best pitchers to face the top of the order to start the game.

 

Also, it helps, in theory, with the starting pitcher not having to face the top of the order the 3rd time through.

[Kimmi]

Yes. You can select a one inning pitcher that matches up well with the top of the opponent’s order, and the long guy you bring in next does not usually start off facing the best 4 hitters, unless the batted 9 guys in the first.

 

For those who believe in the third time facing the same batters is a big concern, the long guy, if he’s doing well, can pitch 4-5 inning without facing the top of the order more than twice.

 

Great minds think alike. LOL

[moonslav59]

I really liked the days when we had those lineups that would work the counts and just wear the starting pitcher down. There is no longer much reward to being able to get a starter's pitch count up and knock him out of the game early.

 

On the other side, the days of a pitcher pitching a complete game are almost all but history.

 

There is still an advantage to knocking the opponent’s better pitchers out by pitch count, but it seems less advantageous, these days.

[Bellhorn04]

For those who believe in the third time facing the same batters is a big concern, the long guy, if he’s doing well, can pitch 4-5 inning without facing the top of the order more than twice.

 

On this point, I see no difference from using a regular starter and pulling him after 4-5.

[Kimmi]

I certainly get what you're saying, but there are so many pitchers who end up needing Tommy John surgery now. I don't feel quite right calling them wusses.

 

I'm wondering, however, if the increase in TJS has anything to do with the fact that pitchers are being protected or 'babied' more along the way.

[Kimmi]

On this point, I see no difference from using a regular starter and pulling him after 4-5.

 

With an opener, you could feasibly keep the 'starter' in for an extra inning or two without having to face the top of the line up a 3rd time.

[moonslav59]

On this point, I see no difference from using a regular starter and pulling him after 4-5.

 

A starter will come up against the top of the order a third time after 6 innings of perfect pitching.

 

A lot g man who comes into a game in the 2nd inning, assuming a 1-2-3 first, would not face the top of the order the third time until after 8 innings of perfect ball (game is over).

[Bellhorn04]

I'm wondering, however, if the increase in TJS has anything to do with the fact that pitchers are being protected or 'babied' more along the way.

 

No one seems to know for sure. But there's another theory that's quite the opposite - pitchers are throwing too hard at too young an age.

[Kimmi]

There is still an advantage to knocking the opponent’s better pitchers out by pitch count, but it seems less advantageous, these days.

 

That depends on how good the pen is.

 

In many cases, a reliever pitching for one or two innings is a better pitcher than a starter.

[Bellhorn04]

A starter will come up against the top of the order a third time after 6 innings of perfect pitching.

 

A lot g man who comes into a game in the 2nd inning, assuming a 1-2-3 first, would not face the top of the order the third time until after 8 innings of perfect ball (game is over).

 

What you're saying is it's not 'third time through the order' that matters, it's only 'third time through the top of the order'.

 

So facing the 4-5-6 hitters a third time is no big deal?

[moonslav59]

What you're saying is it's not 'third time through the order' that matters, it's only 'third time through the top of the order'.

 

So facing the 4-5-6 hitters a third time is no big deal?

 

It should be much less of a deal, but yes.

[Bellhorn04]

It should be much less of a deal, but yes.

 

Even though the book says you should have two of your best four hitters in the 4-5 spots?

 

I'm not sure I buy it.

Edited March 21, 2021 by Bellhorn04

[Kimmi]

No one seems to know for sure. But there's another theory that's quite the opposite - pitchers are throwing too hard at too young an age.

 

That's a fair point.

 

Just thinking about some rule changes recently, like the catcher not being able to block the plate to avoid collisions at the plate, or the Chase Utley Rule at 2nd base. I'm not saying that the rules are bad rules, but these are more examples of how players are being more and more protected. Maybe it's just my perception, but players (and society in general) don't seem as tough as they were back in the day.

 

Now soccer players - they are some tough cookies.

[moonslav59]

[/b]1373294]That depends on how good the pen is.

 

In many cases, a reliever pitching for one or two innings is a better pitcher than a starter.

 

Has this changed all that much?

 

In the past, there were times you wished the starter stayed in longer, especially if the team had a good and deep pen.

 

Maybe teams have better and deeper pens. I’ll agree they do, these days.

 

However, when facing a very good SPer, knocking him out earlier is still a good strategy, even if the team had a good and deep pen. Sure, it’s not as good as the days when most teams had weak 5 and 6 inning pen arms, but most good starters are still better that their team’s 5-6 and maybe even 7th inning pitchers on their team. Just maybe not to the same extent..

[Kimmi]

Even though the book says you should have two of your best four hitters in the 4-5 spots?

 

I'm not sure I buy it.

 

But you also have 2 of your best four hitters in the 1 and 2 spots. It may just buy you one extra inning, but that is an advantage.

[Kimmi]

Has this changed all that much?

 

In the past, there were times you wished the starter stayed in longer, especially if the team had a good and deep pen.

 

Maybe teams have better and deeper pens. I’ll agree they do, these days.

 

However, when facing a very good SPer, knocking him out earlier is still a good strategy, even if the team had a good and deep pen. Sure, it’s not as good as the days when most teams had weak 5 and 6 inning pen arms, but most good starters are still better that their team’s 5-6 and maybe even 7th inning pitchers on their team. Just maybe not to the same extent..

 

I do think the pens are much more specialized these days. In the past, if the starter was knocked out early, you'd bring in the 'long man' who typically wasn't as good as the starter. But I agree that if you have a really good starting pitcher, an ace type, you want him out of the game as soon as possible.

[moonslav59]

But you also have 2 of your best four hitters in the 1 and 2 spots. It may just buy you one extra inning, but that is an advantage.

 

Also, chances are the second pitcher comes in facing the #5 or 6 hitter not #4 as I suggest in my example using the minimum innings needed to get to the “third time around” facing the opp’s best hitters.

[moonslav59]

I do think the pens are much more specialized these days. In the past, if the starter was knocked out early, you'd bring in the 'long man' who typically wasn't as good as the starter. But I agree that if you have a really good starting pitcher, an ace type, you want him out of the game as soon as possible.

 

Long men are still usually pitchers not good enough to crack the rotation.

[Nick]

Buiding a playoffs sustaining ball club Part II by Bloom

 

Position players assuming club option excercised

 

C Vaz $ 4.52M-$7.00M

1B Dalbec $ 0.80M-$0.80M-$0.80M-Arb1-Arb2-Arb3 (not sure if qualified for 4 arb years, Arb 1 in 2023?)

2B E Hern $ 6.00M-$8.00M

3B Devers $ 4.58M-Arb2-Arb3

SS Xander $20.00M-$20.0M-$20.00M-$20.00M-$20.00M-$20.00M

LF Cordero $0.80M-Arb2-Arb3

CF Renfro $3.10M-Arb2-Arb3

RF Verdugo $0.80M-Arb1-Arb2-Arb3

DH JD $22.00M-$22.00M

 

Unless Vaz has a complete meltdown, his option will be picked up. He came into the season best shape of his life. It wasn't as though he was out of shape previously. If he's willing to sign a team friendly extension, I can see Sox doing it to give younger guys time to develop.

 

If Dalbec can make enough contact, then he's a keeper. Very good 4th round draft pick.

 

Hernandez is a placeholder for Jeter Downs. He can then become a valuable utility player at the right price.

 

I just don't see Xander getting more money after he ages two more years and opt out. He stays.

 

Sox will do everything to keep Devers. Position may change but his bat will be valued.

 

Based on what Bloom has said, CF will belong to Duran in near future.

 

Hopefully JD will revert back to pre-2020 days but his price is too high once his contract runs out in 2022.

 

Keep an eye on Casas. He will eventually inserted into the lineup no later than 2023 if not sooner. At that point, Dalbec, Devers and Casas can rotate the 3B, 1B and DH?

 

Left field can be platooned until something better shows up. Cordero and Renfro can supplement outfield spots. We still have Chavis as a depth piece for now.

 

I'm hoping we select a college starting pitcher with the #4 pick this year.

 

This team looks much better than last year's squad.

Edited March 21, 2021 by Nick

[notin]

No one seems to know for sure. But there's another theory that's quite the opposite - pitchers are throwing too hard at too young an age.

 

I believe this 100%.

 

One prime example was Lucas Giolito, who was topping 100mph in high school. You don’t need to throw 100mph to get high school hitters out. But scouts bring radar guns to high school games, and every high school pitcher knows radar gun readings can translate to scholarships or signing bonuses. It did get both for Giolito, but it also got him a TJ surgery before graduation.

 

And once on Real Time, when they were discussing the proliferation of travel baseball, the reporters were talking to parents who were trying to find doctors to perform Tommy John surgery on their healthy high school sons. And they wanted it because it reportedly adds a few mph to the radar gun. (The kicker is it doesn’t “add” velocity, but rather for many pitchers it can restore velocity lost to wear and tear. Not the same thing at all.)

[moonslav59]

Buiding a playoffs sustaining ball club Part II by Bloom

 

Position players assuming club option excercised

 

C Vaz $ 4.52M-$7.00M

1B Dalbec $ 0.80M-$0.80M-$0.80M-Arb1-Arb2-Arb3 (not sure if qualified for 4 arb years, Arb 1 in 2023?)

2B E Hern $ 6.00M-$8.00M

3B Devers $ 4.58M-Arb2-Arb3

SS Xander $20.00M-$20.0M-$20.00M-$20.00M-$20.00M-$20.00M

LF Cordero $0.80M-Arb2-Arb3

CF Renfro $3.10M-Arb2-Arb3

RF Verdugo $0.80M-Arb1-Arb2-Arb3

DH JD $22.00M-$22.00M

 

Unless Vaz has a complete meltdown, his option will be picked up. He came into the season best shape of his life. It wasn't as though he was out of shape previously. If he's willing to sign a team friendly extension, I can see Sox doing it to give younger guys time to develop.

 

If Dalbec can make enough contact, then he's a keeper. Very good 4th round draft pick.

 

Hernandez is a placeholder for Jeter Downs. He can then become a valuable utility player at the right price.

 

I just don't see Xander getting more money after he ages two more years and opt out. He stays.

 

Sox will do everything to keep Devers. Position may change but his bat will be valued.

 

Based on what Bloom has said, CF will belong to Duran in near future.

 

Hopefully JD will revert back to pre-2020 days but his price is too high once his contract runs out in 2022.

 

Keep an eye on Casas. He will eventually inserted into the lineup no later than 2023 if not sooner. At that point, Dalbec, Devers and Casas can rotate the 3B, 1B and DH?

 

Left field can be platooned until something better shows up. Cordero and Renfro can supplement outfield spots. We still have Chavis has a depth piece for now.

 

I'm hoping we select a college starting pitcher with the #4 pick this year.

 

This team looks much better than last year's squad.

 

Nice summary, as was part1.

 

I’m not so sure Downs is a lock, and I’m hoping guys like Jimenez, Potts, Rosario and Hernandez © make a difference, too.

[Bellhorn04]

That's a fair point.

 

Just thinking about some rule changes recently, like the catcher not being able to block the plate to avoid collisions at the plate, or the Chase Utley Rule at 2nd base. I'm not saying that the rules are bad rules, but these are more examples of how players are being more and more protected. Maybe it's just my perception, but players (and society in general) don't seem as tough as they were back in the day.

 

It's a tricky issue. You can say the same about football - new rules to protect players from head injuries, for example.

 

But when you read about all the ex-NFL players whose lives were basically ruined by head injuries, it's pretty hard not to get behind the new rules.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The problem some of us dinosaurs have with yanking starters too soon isn't because don't we have faith in the good relievers scheduled to follow. It's because we don't have faith in good relievers always following with good performances.

 

Let's say your starter is throwing lights-out -- we'll call him Blake Snell. You know Snell is on that night, but no one can guarantee the next arm will be (especially if that arm was used many times in the past week). And the more guys you bring in, the higher the chances that at least one of them will be ineffective.

 

This is where phrases like over-thinking, over-managing, or lately -- over-analyzing -- clash with about 100 years or so of baseball strategy. But just to show that old dawgs can learn new tricks, the three-batter minimum rule will hopefully help such some pitching-change decisions be made more logically...