A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[mvp 78]

Tampa doesn't seem to care about service time when using young guys. Maybe it's because they know they'll probably flip most of them before they get expensive. If you know that going in, you'll always call up and use a guy when you need him, to maximize his value to your franchise... and that includes replacing him with viable prospects to keep revolv-- I mean, evolving...

 

It remains to be seen what they do with Wander Franco. It certainly looks like they messed around with service time the year they brought up Snell. Adames probably should have been ready opening day in 2018 too. Archer in 2013?

[Bellhorn04]

Hate "the clock". Fix rules pls.

[mvp 78]

Hate "the clock". Fix rules pls.

 

Replace with pitch clock instead!

[notin]

Hate "the clock". Fix rules pls.

 

The Players Union fought very hard to get a service time clock and free agency. It's not going way easily....

[Bellhorn04]

The Players Union fought very hard to get a service time clock and free agency. It's not going way easily....

 

But they hate the manipulation factor, no?

[notin]

But they hate the manipulation factor, no?

 

But is there any type of system that can be put in place that will not allow some sort of manipulation?

[moonslav59]

But is there any type of system that can be put in place that will not allow some sort of manipulation?

 

Yes. Flat amount of years after drafted- maybe another amount for IFAs.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But is there any type of system that can be put in place that will not allow some sort of manipulation?

 

Here's one the league devised: they built a room connecting each clubhouse and dugout, then installed monitors with game videos for employees to review for instant replay... and told them to ignore the catcher's signs.

[Nick]

I’m far from negative in Houck. I’d like to make sure we have one more year of team control with him- something some feel is just for upper echelon players. One could argue I am valuing him too highly.

 

Look, the kid is suddenly a lock for a slot in our rotation based on a 17 inning sample size from a messed up 2020 season? I’m very hopeful that was not a fluke, so much so that I want another year of him in a Sox uniform guaranteed.

 

Also, I’m very high on Pivetta- perhaps too high?

 

I could ask why you are so negative on Pivetta, but I won’t,

 

My response was to the original poster. I don't really care what 'most people think'.

 

I always listen to those that's in power to make decisions. It's very possible that Houck will end up in the pen. But the management has decided to give 'starter' role a chance for Houck. He'll work on his third pitch to get closer to that goal.

 

In my former life, I was a CPA. I like numbers. I like budgets. I like projections. I like spreadsheets.

 

To me, player controllable years is important. Look at Dalbec. He has already established himself as a potential power bat. Maybe he'll fail. But as an 'accountant', I'm excited to know that he's under team control for next six years despite having already had a taste of major league at bats.

 

There's no point in burning Houck's major league service time this year. He can work on his craft in the minors. He can be brought back if someone goes down or as a reliever later in the year. Succeed or fail, he'll have six years of team control as he begins 2022.

 

I'm happy to see Pivetta in the starting rotation. He's under team control for next four years. He was a good 'get' by Bloom.

 

Same goes for Verdugo. Four years of team control.

 

I'd like to see Sox extend Devers over the next twelve months. This was his first arbitration year.

 

This is how I think.......baseball is a business. As a big market club, I see luxury tax limit as the 'artificial player budget'. Having our highest paid player injured this year skews our payroll for 2021 along with payout for Pedey and Price. That's almost $55M of waste. That's how I see it as an accountant.

Edited March 18, 2021 by Nick

[mvp 78]

In my former life, I was a CPA. I like numbers. I like budgets. I like projections. I like spreadsheets.

 

 

We are legion.

[notin]

My response was to the original poster. I don't really care what 'most people think'.

 

I always listen to those that's in power to make decisions. It's very possible that Houck will end up in the pen. But the management has decided to give 'starter' role for Houck. He'll work on his third pitch.

 

In my former life, I was a CPA. I like numbers. I like budgets. I like projections. I like spreadsheets.

 

To me, player controllable years is important. Look at Dalbec. He has already established himself as a potential power bat. Maybe he'll fail. But as a fan, I'm excited to know that he's under team control for next six years despite having had a taste of major league bats.

 

There's no point in burning Houck's major league service time this year. He can work on his craft in the minors. He can be brought back if someone goes down or as a reliever later in the year.

 

I'm happy to see Pivetta in the starting rotation. He's under team control for next four years. Same goes for Verdugo. I'd like to see Sox extend Devers over the next twelve months.

 

This is how I think.......

 

It's one think to not bring up a 21yo Triston Casas now only to see him reach free agency at age 27, just as he is entering his "prime" years. But Houck will be entering his age 25 season this year. Delaying his service time therefore buys the Sox his age 32 season, which might not be worth it, if it ever even exists. I don't see service time being an issue here...

[Nick]

It's one think to not bring up a 21yo Triston Casas now only to see him reach free agency at age 27, just as he is entering his "prime" years. But Houck will be entering his age 25 season this year. Delaying his service time therefore buys the Sox his age 32 season, which might not be worth it, if it ever even exists. I don't see service time being an issue here...

 

My point is as follows. Mgmt wants Houck to be a starter. Mgmt thinks he needs a reasonable third pitch as a starter. We already have five starters as we start 2021 season. It's not his age that I'm concerned about. Why not have his 'clock' start later if we don't need him and give him additional time to develop?

 

If someone goes down and we need him, then by all means, f*** the player controllable years, bring him up.

[mvp 78]

My point is as follows. Mgmt wants Houck to be a starter. Mgmt thinks he needs a reasonable third pitch as a starter. We already have five starters as we start 2021 season. It's not his age that I'm concerned about. Why not have his 'clock' start later if we don't need him and give him additional time to develop?

 

If someone goes down and we need him, then by all means, f*** the player controllable years.

 

If he just can't develop that 3rd pitch, you then call him up and slot him in the pen. That probably wouldn't be until later in the season though.

 

It could make more sense to bring up Seabold instead of Houck if the Sox really need a starter.

[notin]

If he just can't develop that 3rd pitch, you then call him up and slot him in the pen. That probably wouldn't be until later in the season though.

 

It could make more sense to bring up Seabold instead of Houck if the Sox really need a starter.

 

I think this will be the ultimate fate of Houck - bullpen arm. Hey, that slider is the stuff of closers.

 

Right now, toying with making him a starter is fine, and especially since he is a depth starter. Starters are harder to come by than relievers. But I think Houck ends up in the pen, possibly as a high leverage reliever if not a flat out closer...

[Bellhorn04]

This is how I think.......baseball is a business. As a big market club, I see luxury tax limit as the 'artificial player budget'. Having our highest paid player injured this year skews our payroll for 2021 along with payout for Pedey and Price. That's almost $55M of waste. That's how I see it as an accountant.

 

Another accountant here. I see that $55M more as a 'cost of doing business', only because the 3 players involved actually contributed to our success. If it was Sandoval, I would call it waste.

[moonslav59]

A fair question is:

 

Why not start the season with a 6 man rotation of ERod/Eovaldi/Richards/Perez/Pivetta/Houck? Minimizes injury risk?

 

These guys are creatures of habit. I wouldn’t mess with their timing.

 

We’d likely switch to 5 at some point and mess with them again.

[moonslav59]

It's one think to not bring up a 21yo Triston Casas now only to see him reach free agency at age 27, just as he is entering his "prime" years. But Houck will be entering his age 25 season this year. Delaying his service time therefore buys the Sox his age 32 season, which might not be worth it, if it ever even exists. I don't see service time being an issue here...

 

Pitchers are often very good at age 32.

[notin]

Pitchers are often very good at age 32.

 

Some are. But a greater amount of others are out of MLB by then. Sometimes due to ineffectiveness. Sometimes due to injury.

 

And sometimes they just cannot get a deal. Look at 32yo Rick Porcello...

[Nick]

If he just can't develop that 3rd pitch, you then call him up and slot him in the pen. That probably wouldn't be until later in the season though.

 

It could make more sense to bring up Seabold instead of Houck if the Sox really need a starter.

 

Good point....

[Nick]

Another accountant here. I see that $55M more as a 'cost of doing business', only because the 3 players involved actually contributed to our success. If it was Sandoval, I would call it waste.

 

I'm thinking non productive assets for 2021. We'll dispose one after 2021 season and another after 2022. Third asset maybe placed in service latter third of 2021, so there's that.

Edited March 18, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Some are. But a greater amount of others are out of MLB by then. Sometimes due to ineffectiveness. Sometimes due to injury.

 

And sometimes they just cannot get a deal. Look at 32yo Rick Porcello...

 

I still think the chances are we need the 32 year old Houck years from now more than we need him in a rebuild season.

 

Had Houck not had those 17 IP in 2020, this wouldn’t even be talked about.

[moonslav59]

If he just can't develop that 3rd pitch, you then call him up and slot him in the pen. That probably wouldn't be until later in the season though.

 

It could make more sense to bring up Seabold instead of Houck if the Sox really need a starter.

 

Andriese will likely get the call before Houck, as well.

Edited March 18, 2021 by moonslav59

[a700hitter]

Andriese will likely get the call before Houck, as well.

I was hoping that Houck would show enough promise to leap over Andriese.

[moonslav59]

I was hoping that Houck would show enough promise to leap over Andriese.

 

He does still have a lot of promise, but Andriese has looked good, too and is out of options.

[a700hitter]

He does still have a lot of promise, but Andriese has looked good, too and is out of options.

Andriese is more of a known quantity. And what we know is that his is barely average.

[moonslav59]

Andriese is more of a known quantity. And what we know is that his is barely average.

 

If GMS and managers went by promise over the pretty much known quantities, we’d see a lot of changes in MLB. On the Sox, DHern would be our closer.

 

I certainly see more upside with Houck but maybe a lower floor, too. The options make it tough to pick Houck as we will likely use 20+ pitchers this year, and Houck should get plenty of opportunities to show he belongs.

 

Plus, Houck will be on Limited IP or pitch count anyway.

[notin]

He does still have a lot of promise, but Andriese has looked good, too and is out of options.

 

The difference is if Andriese is not in the rotation, he will be in the bullpen. Houck looks like Boston rotation or Worcester rotation right now...

[mvp 78]

I was hoping that Houck would show enough promise to leap over Andriese.

 

There are other guys on the 26 man roster worse than Andriese, namely Brice.

[moonslav59]

The difference is if Andriese is not in the rotation, he will be in the bullpen. Houck looks like Boston rotation or Worcester rotation right now...

 

Andriese pitched multiple innings in STing and will likely be our long man, so moving him to starter, if needed, seems like choice #1, if someone goes down. Choice 2 could be Houck, Seabold & Whitlock.

[mvp 78]

Andriese pitched multiple innings in STing and will likely be our long man, so moving him to starter, if needed, seems like choice #1, if someone goes down. Choice 2 could be Houck, Seabold & Whitlock.

 

Has Whitlock been throwing multiple innings in ST?