A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

NESN has hired Ellis Burks, Mo Vaughn, Kevin Youkilis and Jonathan Papelbon to make limited appearances on broadcasts this year. Don't know about their on-air talent, but that's some pretty good baseball talent.

[dgalehouse]

Gossage once said a one inning save felt cheap to him, and it was too easy.

 

A few years back, back when he was into baseball and not politics, Nate Silver threw out the idea of a new way to evaluate relief pitchers with a stat called the "goose egg." A goose egg was basically an outing in which the reliever entered a close game (lead of 2 runs or less) after the 6th inning and did not give up any earned runs. For every shutout inning, the reliever gets credited with one "goose egg." Per his research, Gossage was the all time leader in goose eggs (and, yes, they were named after him)...

 

I don't think teams have any inclination to go back to the system where the closer pitches multiple innings. Today's bullpens are deeper and more specialized. You have matchup guys , setup men and a mostly one inning closer . Most teams have several really hard throwers in the pen. It seems to work pretty well and the relievers are more effective with that system. The top closers of the past decade like Kimbrel , Chapman and Jansen have career ERAs considerably lower than Gossage.

[notin]

I don't think teams have any inclination to go back to the system where the closer pitches multiple innings. Today's bullpens are deeper and more specialized. You have matchup guys , setup men and a mostly one inning closer . Most teams have several really hard throwers in the pen. It seems to work pretty well and the relievers are more effective with that system. The top closers of the past decade like Kimbrel , Chapman and Jansen have career ERAs considerably lower than Gossage.

 

Oh they aren't going back.

 

But the modern usage has obscured how we view some of the greater relievers from the past because the new kid got more "saves" by being a ninth inning specialist...

[notin]

Gifford, Cosell and Meredith made a great team.

 

I like Cosell because he must have had a sense of humor about himself, often playing unflattering portrayals of himself in Woody Allen movies...

[notin]

Gee, let's see: exactly one year after blowing a three-run lead just five outs away from going to the World Series and finally beating our arch-rivals who had won five pennants the past seven years, down three games to none in the bottom of the 9th with the season on the line vs. the greatest postseason closer of all-time who would someday become the only unanimous Hall of Famer in history... all we needed to come back was to win four straight for the first time in baseball history.

 

I'm sure there were loads of confident Red Sox fans who knew we had it in the bag.

 

My point was Mueller owned Rivera like very few other hitters. You know, like the stats showed.

 

Maybe you remember, way back on July 24th, 2004, Bill Mueller launched a 3 run walk off blast off Rivera to jump start the 52-44 Red Sox off to a 46-20 finish to the season.

 

Maybe THAT was Mueller's truly underrated hit?

[harmony]

My point was Mueller owned Rivera like very few other hitters. You know, like the stats showed.

 

Maybe you remember, way back on July 24th, 2004, Bill Mueller launched a 3 run walk off blast off Rivera to jump start the 52-44 Red Sox off to a 46-20 finish to the season.

 

Maybe THAT was Mueller's truly underrated hit?

Hall of Fame designated hitter Edgar Martinez posted a .625/.700/1.188/1.888 line in 20 career plate appearances against Mariano Rivera:

 

https://stathead.com/baseball/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?pitcher=riverma01&utm_medium=br&utm_source=player-finder-links&utm_campaign=baseball

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

My point was Mueller owned Rivera like very few other hitters. You know, like the stats showed.

 

Maybe you remember, way back on July 24th, 2004, Bill Mueller launched a 3 run walk off blast off Rivera to jump start the 52-44 Red Sox off to a 46-20 finish to the season.

 

Maybe THAT was Mueller's truly underrated hit?

 

That HR was great, and I'll bet a lot of fans forget it won the game when Varitek stuffed his mitt in ARod's face. But I'm sticking with Mueller's game-tying slapshot past Rivera's late kick-save as the most underrated, mainly because of what it represented, where and when it occurred, why it's overlooked (after Roberts steal), and who wasn't there -- like a Yankee upside-down in the bullpen, a cop refereeing a touchdown, and an announcer yelling, "Billy Muel-LER, Billy Muel-LER, Billy Muel-LER!"

[Kimmi]

Was it the Cubs manager getting criticized for not using his best reliever is a loss? Maybe it was someone else....

 

I can't remember any specific games or managers, but I know that it has happened, and that managers are often questioned about why they didn't bring in their best reliever.

 

That said, we must also remember that we don't know what the outcome of the game would have been even if the manager had brought in his best reliever. Managerial moves like this actually make a very small difference in win expectancy. I would still go with the my best reliever in the 7th or 8th if the situation called for it, and take my chances with another reliever in the 9th.

[Bellhorn04]

My point was Mueller owned Rivera like very few other hitters. You know, like the stats showed.

 

What about sample size?

[Kimmi]

NESN has hired Ellis Burks, Mo Vaughn, Kevin Youkilis and Jonathan Papelbon to make limited appearances on broadcasts this year. Don't know about their on-air talent, but that's some pretty good baseball talent.

 

I am interested to see/hear them on the broadcasts. I'm not sure how that baseball talent will translate to broadcasting talent, but they should have some good insight and stories to share.

[Bellhorn04]

That said, we must also remember that we don't know what the outcome of the game would have been even if the manager had brought in his best reliever. Managerial moves like this actually make a very small difference in win expectancy. I would still go with the my best reliever in the 7th or 8th if the situation called for it, and take my chances with another reliever in the 9th.

 

Another point about that is that if your best reliever gets the job done, your offense might score another run or more and make it easier in the 9th.

[Kimmi]

I don't think teams have any inclination to go back to the system where the closer pitches multiple innings. Today's bullpens are deeper and more specialized. You have matchup guys , setup men and a mostly one inning closer . Most teams have several really hard throwers in the pen. It seems to work pretty well and the relievers are more effective with that system. The top closers of the past decade like Kimbrel , Chapman and Jansen have career ERAs considerably lower than Gossage.

 

On a slightly different note, I think too much emphasis is being placed on bullpens these days. Teams need to go back to the system where starting pitchers had more importance and bullpens had less. I really don't like the devaluing of the starting pitcher that we've been seeing.

[Kimmi]

Another point about that is that if your best reliever gets the job done, your offense might score another run or more and make it easier in the 9th.

 

Exactly Bell. You could be saving your best reliever for a 9th inning situation in which he isn't even needed. Use him when you know he's needed.

[Bellhorn04]

On a slightly different note, I think too much emphasis is being placed on bullpens these days. Teams need to go back to the system where starting pitchers had more importance and bullpens had less. I really don't like the devaluing of the starting pitcher that we've been seeing.

 

That's metrics at work, I'm afraid.

[notin]

What about sample size?

 

Mentioned in the post. Mueller had 12 career PA against Rivera.

 

Not many hitters have a bunch of PA against a closer...

[notin]

That's metrics at work, I'm afraid.

 

No, that’s finances at work. The finances are the reason (good SP costs a lot more than good RP) and the metrics show teams how to make it work...

[Kimmi]

That's metrics at work, I'm afraid.

 

Yes, it is.

 

That 3rd time through the order penalty is real, even when a pitcher was cruising up to that point.

[Kimmi]

No, that’s finances at work. The finances are the reason (good SP costs a lot more than good RP) and the metrics show teams how to make it work...

 

If starting pitcher are going to be devalued, their salaries need to reflect this shift.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

On a slightly different note, I think too much emphasis is being placed on bullpens these days. Teams need to go back to the system where starting pitchers had more importance and bullpens had less. I really don't like the devaluing of the starting pitcher that we've been seeing.

 

Good point. If modern athletes are bigger/stronger/faster, then why can't starting pitchers go deeper in games on the mound -- like the bad, old days? I'm sure analytics has stats about burn-out, and trainers can cite more frequent injury risk in muscle-joint ratios... but how were smaller/weaker/slower and even fatter pitchers once able to throw hundreds of more innings per year? Maybe the quicker-paced games and four-man rotations kept them in a different kind of condition: more loose, warm, durable, too-desperate-for-jobs-and-money-to-care, etc.

 

It couldn't have been ancient medicine, old-fashioned diets, and obsolete training techniques... could it? Were recreational, pre-craft beer drugs cleaner, cut with less toxins?

[Bellhorn04]

Mentioned in the post. Mueller had 12 career PA against Rivera.

 

Not many hitters have a bunch of PA against a closer...

 

So what is the point then of pointing to success in the first 10 or 11 PA's as being meaningful?

[notin]

So what is the point then of pointing to success in the first 10 or 11 PA's as being meaningful?

 

Hey history against pitcher you face a maximum of one time per game is always going to be small. But in his limited history, Mueller was successful against Rivera. In fact, he was very likely the most successful Red Sox hitter against Rivera ever.

 

And in that situation, having him come up with the tying run in scoring position was a very good thing for the Sox. What hitter would you have preferred?

 

Before you answer “Ortiz, obviously”, bear in mind Papi did bat in that inning with two outs and the bases loaded and popped to second...

[notin]

If starting pitcher are going to be devalued, their salaries need to reflect this shift.

 

And that is undoubtedly the goal of ownership. Players and agents, however, do not necessarily agree.

 

Really what’s happening now is middle relief pitchers get paid more than they used to. The salaries are adjusting, but not how teams want them to...

[Bellhorn04]

Hey history against pitcher you face a maximum of one time per game is always going to be small. But in his limited history, Mueller was successful against Rivera. In fact, he was very likely the most successful Red Sox hitter against Rivera ever.

 

And in that situation, having him come up with the tying run in scoring position was a very good thing for the Sox. What hitter would you have preferred?

 

Before you answer “Ortiz, obviously”, bear in mind Papi did bat in that inning with two outs and the bases loaded and popped to second...

 

Ortiz, obviously.

[Bellhorn04]

And that is undoubtedly the goal of ownership. Players and agents, however, do not necessarily agree.

 

Really what’s happening now is middle relief pitchers get paid more than they used to. The salaries are adjusting, but not how teams want them to...

 

So you think the 'third time through the order' principle is poppycock and that the real reason for hauling starters earlier now is to cut their innings and their pay?

[notin]

Good point. If modern athletes are bigger/stronger/faster, then why can't starting pitchers go deeper in games on the mound -- like the bad, old days? I'm sure analytics has stats about burn-out, and trainers can cite more frequent injury risk in muscle-joint ratios... but how were smaller/weaker/slower and even fatter pitchers once able to throw hundreds of more innings per year? Maybe the quicker-paced games and four-man rotations kept them in a different kind of condition: more loose, warm, durable, too-desperate-for-jobs-and-money-to-care, etc.

 

It couldn't have been ancient medicine, old-fashioned diets, and obsolete training techniques... could it? Were recreational, pre-craft beer drugs cleaner, cut with less toxins?

 

Well, it did help that they were pitching exclusively to equally smaller/weaker/slower/fatter white guys. You have to bear in mind that for a long time, the talent pool was not admitting everyone...

[notin]

So you think the 'third time through the order' principle is poppycock and that the real reason for hauling starters earlier now is to cut their innings and their pay?

 

You clearly ignored me on BDC when I was predicting this 10 years ago.

 

It’s not happening exactly as you say, but the Moneyball era tried to find underpaid aspects of the game for poorer teams to capitalize on. First was OBP. Then defense. Then came middle relief, which allowed teams to spend less on the rotation and still be competitive. Tampa and KC have been doing this for a long time...

[notin]

Ortiz, obviously.

 

And you already have my answer

[Bellhorn04]

Good point. If modern athletes are bigger/stronger/faster, then why can't starting pitchers go deeper in games on the mound -- like the bad, old days? I'm sure analytics has stats about burn-out, and trainers can cite more frequent injury risk in muscle-joint ratios... but how were smaller/weaker/slower and even fatter pitchers once able to throw hundreds of more innings per year? Maybe the quicker-paced games and four-man rotations kept them in a different kind of condition: more loose, warm, durable, too-desperate-for-jobs-and-money-to-care, etc.

 

I'm guessing one of the reasons is the way modern pitchers pitch. On average they throw harder and they throw more sliders and other breaking balls that put more stress on the arm.

 

Also, I think when we look at pitchers of the past we tend to focus on the ones who were really special, like Gibson, Ryan et all, as if they were typical, which they most certainly weren't.

[Bellhorn04]

And you already have my answer

 

Yeah, your 20/20 hindsight answer...

[notin]

I'm guessing one of the reasons is the way modern pitchers pitch. On average they throw harder and they throw more sliders and other breaking balls that put more stress on the arm.

 

Also, I think when we look at pitchers of the past we tend to focus on the ones who were really special, like Gibson, Ryan et all, as if they were typical, which they most certainly weren't.

 

By the time he got to “fatter”, I assumed he’d gone all the way back to the days of Babe Ruth and Hippo Vaughn...