A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[oldtimer]

It speaks to a very specific time frame and a very heated debate about what the "win now" philosophy was doing to our future outlook. The time period many spoke of is here and now.

 

I'm not sure why it should be a word that bothers anyone. You or others may think another word was or is more appropriate. That's fine.

 

I use the word, because most here know what I'm talking about by just saying one word.

 

Part of that debate centered on how long the "downturn" would last. (There, I changed the word for you.) Many stated things like, "We'll build the farm back up, like we always do (in no time was implied)." I disagreed on how quickly the farm could be rebuilt, due mainly to how the rules have changed since our glory days of farm building while still winning.

 

I wanted to point out that I felt like our farm has been getting better at a faster pace than I imagined back in the days of that discussion, and the context of that discussion is needed, IMO.

 

The trades we made, last summer helped.

 

The Betts trade gave the farm a significant boost. That was not really expected back from 2017-2018.

 

We got higher than expected draft picks last year and very high one coming up, this year.

 

Our IFA signings have been flat for years.

 

You don't have to defend yourself. The course of action we took was bound to lead to a turn down, by whatever name. It was heightened by the loss of Sale and E-Rod and the diminished farm system. Now we are on the road to recovery with an opening of the purse strings in order for the 2022 season.

[Bellhorn04]

The fact is that the franchise has been on a roller coaster ride since 2011.

[moonslav59]

The fact is that the franchise has been on a roller coaster ride since 2011.

 

In terms of wins each season, yes, but in terms of pre-season expectations for the following year and beyond, this is different.

[Bellhorn04]

In terms of wins each season, yes, but in terms of pre-season expectations for the following year and beyond, this is different.

 

This year's pre-season expectations are muddled because of the X factors. I felt much the same way before the 2015 season.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In terms of wins each season, yes, but in terms of pre-season expectations for the following year and beyond, this is different.

 

In the mid-teens we still had Big Papi, and Pedroia was a star we didn't have to worry would opt-out if the front office punted. Plus, back in the day, Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley all were exhibiting at least one skill at the MLB level that promised future stardom.

 

None of the current young Sox are at similar levels yet. Verdugo looks like a good player; maybe he will mix in a great year or two. Devers isn't Ortiz yet (except -- so far -- if Papi was forced to play third). We think and hope we have some future All-Stars -- name your favorites: Dalbec, Duran, Yorke, etc. But until they make it to Boston and have a few good months, the Sox are what they are.

[a700hitter]

To NOT make you look easily deceived and gullible?

That’s what you thought?

[Kimmi]

65 is putrid. That winning percentage was vomit inducing. I don’t see them doing much better than 70-72 wins this season unless there are additions to this squad or pleasant surprises.

 

87 wins.

[Kimmi]

87 wins.

 

Competing with the Jays.

[a700hitter]

Competing with the Jays.

i love your optimism.

[Larry Cook]

87 wins.

 

What kind of odds is Vegas giving on that win total?

[moonslav59]

What kind of odds is Vegas giving on that win total?

 

Not sure, but fangraphs projected 87.

[kenmeister]

It might end up 87 wins, but it will be frustrating because some of those losses will be 9th inning meltdowns without a closer.

[mvp 78]

In the mid-teens we still had Big Papi, and Pedroia was a star we didn't have to worry would opt-out if the front office punted. Plus, back in the day, Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley all were exhibiting at least one skill at the MLB level that promised future stardom.

 

None of the current young Sox are at similar levels yet. Verdugo looks like a good player; maybe he will mix in a great year or two. Devers isn't Ortiz yet (except -- so far -- if Papi was forced to play third). We think and hope we have some future All-Stars -- name your favorites: Dalbec, Duran, Yorke, etc. But until they make it to Boston and have a few good months, the Sox are what they are.

 

At Devers' age, he's far beyond what Ortiz was at his. Ortiz didn't hit like 2019 Devers until 2004 when he was 29.

[moonslav59]

It might end up 87 wins, but it will be frustrating because some of those losses will be 9th inning meltdowns without a closer.

 

I'm hopeful Ottavino can win the job and do well.

 

Our starters and pen should be much better than last year, so maybe we can reduce the amount of save opportunities available to blow.

[moonslav59]

At Devers' age, he's far beyond what Ortiz was at his. Ortiz didn't hit like 2019 Devers until 2004 when he was 29.

 

There is still a real possibility that Devers can blow away his 2019 season.

 

I'm more than just hopeful he can do that. I am fairly confident he will.

[Bellhorn04]

There is still a real possibility that Devers can blow away his 2019 season.

 

I'm more than just hopeful he can do that. I am fairly confident he will.

 

Devers had a .916 OPS and led the majors in total bases in 2019. I don't really see him blowing that away. Doing similar things would be enough for me.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

At Devers' age, he's far beyond what Ortiz was at his. Ortiz didn't hit like 2019 Devers until 2004 when he was 29.

 

In my post, age is only a factor when considering the players' actual performance and developed skills at the time during the rebuilds -- the middle of last decade and the start of this one.

 

I wasn't comparing Devers to Ortiz at age 20 or 25 or 30, but Devers during this rebuild vs. Ortiz during his Sox rebuild. By 2014, Papi had averaged 40 home runs and a .954 OPS in Boston for over a decade. Rafie has had one great year and led the AL in errors for three.

 

I'm not saying Devers can't be another Oritz... he just has a long way to go.

[moonslav59]

Devers had a .916 OPS and led the majors in total bases in 2019. I don't really see him blowing that away. Doing similar things would be enough for me.

 

I'm talking over 1.050 and 50 HRs!

 

Yes, BLOW AWAY!

 

He's still a couple years from peak prime, and his "rawness" is wearing off.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm talking over 1.050 and 50 HRs!

 

Yes, BLOW AWAY!

 

Think big!

 

Just don't be disappointed if he can't reach those thermonuclear levels.

[moonslav59]

Think big!

 

Just don't be disappointed if he can't reach those thermonuclear levels.

 

I realize I could be wrong. I once projected 50 HRs from AGon.

 

Devers is a pure hitter. He's played at every level at the youngest age. He's still 1-3 years from peak prime.

 

I'm just expecting a bell curve.

[mvp 78]

I realize I could be wrong. I once projected 50 HRs from AGon.

 

Devers is a pure hitter. He's played at every level at the youngest age. He's still 1-3 years from peak prime.

 

I'm just expecting a bell curve.

 

AGon had 40 one year in SD. Not hard to think he could do 50 in BOS. He just fell off a cliff at 30.

[Bellhorn04]

I realize I could be wrong. I once projected 50 HRs from AGon.

 

Devers is a pure hitter. He's played at every level at the youngest age. He's still 1-3 years from peak prime.

 

I'm just expecting a bell curve.

 

Ruth, Williams, Gehrig, Bonds. Those are the players with a career OPS of 1.05 or higher.

 

Mike Trout 1.000

Manny Ramirez .996

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

AGon had 40 one year in SD. Not hard to think he could do 50 in BOS. He just fell off a cliff at 30.

 

He never recovered from being forced to play all those Sunday night Yankee games on FOX.

 

Speaking of the c-word, it's interesting that LA was ever able to recover from taking on all that contract responsibility the Sox stuck them with in the AGon trade. The Dodgers have only finished first every single year since that 2012 blockbuster.

[jad]

He never recovered from being forced to play all those Sunday night Yankee games on FOX.

 

Speaking of the c-word, it's interesting that LA was ever able to recover from taking on all that contract responsibility the Sox stuck them with in the AGon trade. The Dodgers have only finished first every single year since that 2012 blockbuster.

 

Right. And Agon? One of the most consistent modern players--put up almost the same numbers with the RS as everywhere else. (But ... well ... he didn't ... as they say ... 'fit in' ... I mean ... you know ... I'm not racist ... no one is in Boston ... but ... jes' sayin' ...)

[moonslav59]

Ruth, Williams, Gehrig, Bonds. Those are the players with a career OPS of 1.05 or higher.

 

Mike Trout 1.000

Manny Ramirez .996

 

I never said career 1.050.

 

I'm talking a season or two at around 1.050 when he reaches peak prime.

 

A hitter has hit over 1.050 forty-six times since 2000.

 

A hitter has hit over 1.030 nearly seventy times since 2000, including JD Martinez, Ozuna, Jim Edmonds, Brian Giles and Carlos Pena.

 

I don't think it's a stretch to think Devers has a season around 1.050 in the next 1-4 years.

 

I'm not big on comparing Devers to Big Papi, and Papi was somewhat of a "late bloomer." He actually had his 4th best OPS year in his final season at age 40!

 

Papi did follow, almost perfectly, a blee curve from ages 24 to 33, then saw a second bell curve from 33-38 or 39.

 

24-33

810> 799>839>961>983>1001>1049>1066>877>794

 

33-40

794>899>953>1026>959>873>913>1021

Edited March 3, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Right. And Agon? One of the most consistent modern players--put up almost the same numbers with the RS as everywhere else. (But ... well ... he didn't ... as they say ... 'fit in' ... I mean ... you know ... I'm not racist ... no one is in Boston ... but ... jes' sayin' ...)

 

The problem with AGon was that he was the most valuable asset at the trade deadline and wouldn't have been able to move Carl Crawford without him. It didn't help that he complained about ownership and management throughout 2012 (headphone-gate, team travel-gate, etc.).

[moonslav59]

Right. And Agon? One of the most consistent modern players--put up almost the same numbers with the RS as everywhere else. (But ... well ... he didn't ... as they say ... 'fit in' ... I mean ... you know ... I'm not racist ... no one is in Boston ... but ... jes' sayin' ...)

 

His highest OPS by team was with the Sox at ages 29-30.

 

.895 BOS

.888 SDP (ages 24-28)

.793 LAD (ages 31-35)

.673 TEX (ages 22-23)

.672 NYM (age 36)

 

He followed the bell curve pretty closely (kinda flat at the top):

 

862>849>871>958>904>957>806>803>817>830>784>642>

[moonslav59]

The problem with AGon was that he was the most valuable asset at the trade deadline and wouldn't have been able to move Carl Crawford without him. It didn't help that he complained about ownership and management throughout 2012 (headphone-gate, team travel-gate, etc.).

 

Plus, that trade, IMO, just happened to be one of the best trades the Sox have ever made, so there is that component to the deal.

[notin]

Plus, that trade, IMO, just happened to be one of the best trades the Sox have ever made, so there is that component to the deal.

 

Despite getting absolutely nothing in return...

[harmony]

At Devers' age, he's far beyond what Ortiz was at his. Ortiz didn't hit like 2019 Devers until 2004 when he was 29.

At Rafael Devers' current age Pablo Sandoval had slightly better numbers than Devers to date.

 

A wide range of outcomes awaits.