A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

I was arguing vociferously against trading him this offseason. I think you had him in a few of your trade ideas.

 

I doubt it, but I've done so many on BTV, he probably was in on one or two.

 

I've been high on Dalbec for a while.

 

To me, OBP is huge, yet this guy gives a big SLG% with it.

 

I've never been big on K rates, unless they guy sucks. On the flip side, I'm not a big believer in FIP, because it values K pitchers, too much.

[kenmeister]

I'll be very disappointed if the Red Sox don't feature an above average offense. And I even think the starting pitching will be middle of the pack, maybe even above average later on in the year if Sale comes back and is effective. But defense and bullpen are my areas of worry.

[moonslav59]

I'll be very disappointed if the Red Sox don't feature an above average offense. And I even think the starting pitching will be middle of the pack, maybe even above average later on in the year if Sale comes back and is effective. But defense and bullpen are my areas of worry.

 

Our offense should be top 5- maybe top 3.

 

Our SP'ers are so hard to project, since health is main concern for 4 of our top 7 (Sale, ERod, Richards and Eovaldi). One could argue 4 of our top 4.

 

Our defense might be bottom 5.

 

To me, the pen is always hard to project. Even the best pens,on paper, often disappoint.

 

We had some real clowns, last year,so it's also hard to quantify how much getting better is needed to be respectable.

 

We added Ottavino, Andriese and Sawamura. We should get a lot more IP over the 2020 pro-rated innings of DHern & Taylor.

 

Barnes and Brasier may be solid- maybe not.

 

Guys like Whitlock and Bazardo, and a SP'er or two who is squeezed from the rotation, as well, assuming we get 6-7 healthy, at once, should help, too.

 

I'm hopeful the pen is near average, but I can see having a high level of concern.

 

If we end up in the race by the deadline, we may add a pen arm or two.

[moonslav59]

If Duran could pull a Fred Lynn (who actually did not come out of no where), our line-up would be golden:

 

1. Duran L (CF)

2. Bogey R (SS)

3. Verdufo L (RF)

4. Devers L (3B)

5. JD M ® (DH)

6. Cordero L /Renfro R (LF)

7. Dalbeck R (1B)

8. Vaz R ©

9. EHern R (2B)

 

Bench: Renfroe or Cordero, Arroyo, Gonzalez, Plawecki (Chavis in AAA or go with 12 pitchers.)

[notin]

So Hernandez his .313 OBP in MLB is not a good idea for leadoff but Duran and his .309 OBP in AA ball is?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So Hernandez his .313 OBP in MLB is not a good idea for leadoff but Duran and his .309 OBP in AA ball is?

 

Of course, Red Sox lore (and Bill Lee) tells us Zimmer blew '78 with his mishandling of the pitching staff and overplaying of injured regulars.

 

For some reason, I'll bet posters here might point at the middle of the order -- Rice, Yaz, Fisk and Lynn -- and point them to the top of the order to get more at bats. Dammit.

 

Here are the OBP: 1. Burleson .295; 2. Remy .321; 3. Rice .370; 4. Captain Carl .367; 5. Fisk .366; 6. Lynn .380. (somebody do me a favor and bold face Rooster and Remdog).

[notin]

Of course, Red Sox lore (and Bill Lee) tells us Zimmer blew '78 with his mishandling of the pitching staff and overplaying of injured regulars.

 

For some reason, I'll bet posters here might point at the middle of the order -- Rice, Yaz, Fisk and Lynn -- and point them to the top of the order to get more at bats. Dammit.

 

Here are the OBP: 1. Burleson .295; 2. Remy .321; 3. Rice .370; 4. Captain Carl .367; 5. Fisk .366; 6. Lynn .380. (somebody do me a favor and bold face Rooster and Remdog).

 

 

Soooooo ..... you are saying a 309 OBP in AA is a better qualification to leadoff than a .313 OBP in MLB?

[moonslav59]

So Hernandez his .313 OBP in MLB is not a good idea for leadoff but Duran and his .309 OBP in AA ball is?

 

No, of course not, and that's why I prefaced my comment with a conditional phrase.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Soooooo ..... you are saying a 309 OBP in AA is a better qualification to leadoff than a .313 OBP in MLB?

 

No, I'm saying before I joined this forum, I never knew that Burleson batting leadoff was quite possibly the reason Boston finished second in 1978. Is there any doubt that Lynn's .380 OBP may have translated into more runs than Burleson's .295 OBP batting in front of three Hall of Famers? I can't help but think some of those additional runs could have resulted in one more victory in the 162-game slate... and thus, a division title, and maybe the pennant and World Series the other great team that year won instead of the Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

No, I'm saying before I joined this forum, I never knew that Burleson batting leadoff was quite possibly the reason Boston finished second in 1978. Is there any doubt that Lynn's .380 OBP may have translated into more runs than Burleson's .295 OBP batting in front of three Hall of Famers? I can't help but think some of those additional runs could have resulted in one more victory in the 162-game slate... and thus, a division title, and maybe the pennant and World Series the other great team that year won instead of the Red Sox.

 

Almost every team put their best hitters 3 and 4. Many put a contact hitter up 2nd, even if they had a .290 OBP. The idea was to move the guy to second for your best hitters.

 

Oh, and by the way, Burleson was not a bad lead off hitter. That .305 OBP in 1975 was below his career .328 mark and was .330 from 1976 until his trade after 1980.

 

Here were the Sox lead off hitters from 1975>1979

 

OBP/PAs

 

1975

.399 Carbo 339

.347 Beniquez 226

.303 Cooper 111

.333 Miller 33

.429 Lynn 15

.455 Evans 11

 

1976

.403 Burleson 328

.294 Cooper 155

.344 Miller 127

.361 Dillard 36

 

1977

.338 Burleson 721

.464 Carbo 28

 

1978

.297 Burleson 597

.307 Remy 37

 

1979

.311 Burleson360

.350 Remy 337

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Almost every team put their best hitters 3 and 4. Many put a contact hitter up 2nd, even if they had a .290 OBP. The idea was to move the guy to second for your best hitters.

 

Oh, and by the way, Burleson was not a bad lead off hitter. That .305 OBP in 1975 was below his career .328 mark and was .330 from 1976 until his trade after 1980.

 

Here were the Sox lead off hitters from 1975>1979

 

OBP/PAs

 

1975

.399 Carbo 339

.347 Beniquez 226

.303 Cooper 111

.333 Miller 33

.429 Lynn 15

.455 Evans 11

 

1976

.403 Burleson 328

.294 Cooper 155

.344 Miller 127

.361 Dillard 36

 

1977

.338 Burleson 721

.464 Carbo 28

 

1978

.297 Burleson 597

.307 Remy 37

 

1979

.311 Burleson360

.350 Remy 337

 

Thanks for the research. Love me some Rooster. He's still one of my favorite shortstops, right up there with X and '04 Cabrera.

 

My query is exclusive to '78: if Lynn and his .380 OBP batted leadoff all year instead of Burleson and his .295 OBP -- in front of the the majors' top slugger, Jim Ed Rice -- would/could that have resulted in one more stinking victory on the entire season... thus, eliminating the initials BFD from the history of Boston fandom forevermore???

[moonslav59]

Thanks for the research. Love me some Rooster. He's still one of my favorite shortstops, right up there with X and '04 Cabrera.

 

My query is exclusive to '78: if Lynn and his .380 OBP batted leadoff all year instead of Burleson and his .295 OBP -- in front of the the majors' top slugger, Jim Ed Rice -- would/could that have resulted in one more stinking victory on the entire season... thus, eliminating the initials BFD from the history of Boston fandom forevermore???

 

Maybe? Probably? It's hard to judge mid season, "Oh, the Rooster is not getting on baselike last year and will continue not to do so."

 

We shoulda never canned Carbo... among others.

[Nick]

If Duran could pull a Fred Lynn (who actually did not come out of no where), our line-up would be golden:

 

1. Duran L (CF)

2. Bogey R (SS)

3. Verdufo L (RF)

4. Devers L (3B)

5. JD M ® (DH)

6. Cordero L /Renfro R (LF)

7. Dalbeck R (1B)

8. Vaz R ©

9. EHern R (2B)

 

Bench: Renfroe or Cordero, Arroyo, Gonzalez, Plawecki (Chavis in AAA or go with 12 pitchers.)

 

I like it for now.

 

Remember that Cora has already stated that at Fenway, center fielder only has to worry about the balls going to his left. Balls headed to his right is just about playing it off the Green Monster. Right field is the more difficult position. He said it.

 

Cora also made it clear that Hernandez will play every day, at different positions, 2B and CF

 

I would hope Jeter Downs will own second base in 2022.

 

My guess is we will extend Vaz at some point after 2021 after his option is excercised.

[notin]

Thanks for the research. Love me some Rooster. He's still one of my favorite shortstops, right up there with X and '04 Cabrera.

 

My query is exclusive to '78: if Lynn and his .380 OBP batted leadoff all year instead of Burleson and his .295 OBP -- in front of the the majors' top slugger, Jim Ed Rice -- would/could that have resulted in one more stinking victory on the entire season... thus, eliminating the initials BFD from the history of Boston fandom forevermore???

 

Maybe.

 

But that way back in the day when OBP was ignored, walks were not viewed as a skillset, and batting average and stolen bases were king, and the entire lineup was constructed around the strategy of hitting a grand slam in the first inning...

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe.

 

But that way back in the day when OBP was ignored, walks were not viewed as a skillset, and batting average and stolen bases were king, and the entire lineup was constructed around the strategy of hitting a grand slam in the first inning...

 

Another point pertinent to 1978 is that the Yankees leadoff hitter that year was Mickey Rivers, with a .302 OBP.

[mvp 78]

Another point pertinent to 1978 is that the Yankees leadoff hitter that year was Mickey Rivers, with a .302 OBP.

 

He did have a .350 OBP the prior year.

 

I feel gross standing up for Mickey Rivers.

[notin]

Another point pertinent to 1978 is that the Yankees leadoff hitter that year was Mickey Rivers, with a .302 OBP.

 

Exactly.

 

Back then, stolen bases were the prerequisite for batting leadoff. And Rivers stole 25 bases. Not a huge amount, but not something to ignore either.

 

Of course, in the next few seasons, every team outide of the Red Sox would embrace the stolen base as a necessary facet of the game, and many of the previous records in that category would just tumble further down the list...

[Bellhorn04]

He did have a .350 OBP the prior year.

 

I feel gross standing up for Mickey Rivers.

 

Ha, you're not. I think this is more about us exonerating Rooster in the leadoff spot being the reason we lost in 1978.

[moonslav59]

He did have a .350 OBP the prior year.

 

I feel gross standing up for Mickey Rivers.

 

...and Burleson had a .365 OBP in 1976 and a respectable .338 in 1977 (.351 combining the previous 2 seasons).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Exactly.

 

Back then, stolen bases were the prerequisite for batting leadoff. And Rivers stole 25 bases. Not a huge amount, but not something to ignore either.

 

Of course, in the next few seasons, every team outide of the Red Sox would embrace the stolen base as a necessary facet of the game, and many of the previous records in that category would just tumble further down the list...

 

Steals and speed in general were more valued in that era, especially through the mid-80s, because of Astroturf stadiums -- most of which were in the National League. The Royals had turf, and were the closest thing to an NL team in the AL. From '76-85, our slugging Sox had a winning record against Kansas City once in 10 years.

[moonslav59]

Steals and speed in general were more valued in that era, especially through the mid-80s, because of Astroturf stadiums -- most of which were in the National League. The Royals had turf, and were the closest thing to an NL team in the AL. From '76-85, our slugging Sox had a winning record against Kansas City once in 10 years.

 

I remember that stretch against KC. UGH-LEEEEE!

 

West coast trips used to kill us, too.

 

[moonslav59]

Over/Under?

 

Sale 80 IP

 

Richards 100 IP

 

Eovaldi 120 IP

 

ERod 140 IP

 

Houck 4.00 ERA

 

Pivetta 4.50 ERA

 

Vaz .790 OPS

 

Dalbec .800 OPS

 

EHern .750

 

Devers .890

 

Bogey .890

 

JD .850

 

Verdugo .850

 

Renfroe .800

 

Cordero 100 games

 

Big Questions:

 

Who plays the more innings in CF?

Verdugo

Cordero

EHern

Duran

(Who gets the least of those 4?)

 

Who gets more saves?

Ottavino

Barnes

(Who blows more saves?)

 

Who has the best ERA in 2021 (assuming 80+ IP)?

Sale

ERod

Richards

Eovaldi

 

Who gets more PAs?

Marwin

Arroyo

Chavis

[mvp 78]

Over/Under?

 

Sale 80 IP over

 

Richards 100 IP over

 

Eovaldi 120 IP over

 

ERod 140 IP over

 

Houck 4.00 ERA under

 

Pivetta 4.50 ERA over

 

Vaz .790 OPS under

 

Dalbec .800 OPS over

 

EHern .750 over

 

Devers .890 over

 

Bogey .890 under

 

JD .850 over

 

Verdugo .850 over

 

Renfroe .800 over

 

Cordero 100 games under

 

Big Questions:

 

Who plays the more innings in CF?

Verdugo most

Cordero least

EHern

Duran

(Who gets the least of those 4?)

 

Who gets more saves?

Ottavino

Barnes most

(Who blows more saves?)

 

Who has the best ERA in 2021 (assuming 80+ IP)?

Sale best

ERod

Richards

Eovaldi

 

Who gets more PAs?

Marwin most

Arroyo

Chavis

 

Enjoy.

[moonslav59]

Enjoy.

 

LOL.

 

My picks...

 

Over/Under?

 

Over Sale 80 IP

 

Under Richards 100 IP

 

Under Eovaldi 120 IP

 

Over ERod 140 IP

 

Over Houck 4.00 ERA

 

Under Pivetta 4.50 ERA

 

Under Vaz .790 OPS

 

Over Dalbec .800 OPS

 

Over EHern .750

 

Way Over Devers .890

 

Over Bogey .890

 

Under JD .850

 

Under Verdugo .850

 

Under Renfroe .800

 

Over Cordero 100 games

 

Big Questions:

 

Who plays the more innings in CF?

X Verdugo

Cordero

EHern

Duran

(Who gets the least of those 4? Cordero)

 

Who gets more saves?

X Ottavino

Barnes

(Who blows more saves? Ottavino)

 

Who has the best ERA in 2021 (assuming 80+ IP)?

Sale

X ERod

Richards

Eovaldi

 

Who gets more PAs?

Marwin

X Arroyo

Chavis

[Larry Cook]

Do be we want sale pitching at all this year?

[moonslav59]

Do be we want sale pitching at all this year?

 

Why not? His rehab is going to advance to throwing hard at some point.

[oldtimer]

I admit to being confused about what the Sox are thinking about to fill the 26 man roster for opening day. I have heard they want to have 14 pitchers and 12 position players at the beginning but traditionally there is less need for pitching numbers early in the season. So it's either 12 position players or 13 for opening day.

 

Barring injuries or sickness it's pretty clear who those position players will be with a few exceptions

 

1st Dalbec

2nd Hernandez (probable)

SS Bogaerts

3rd Devers

C1 Vazquez

C2 Plaweki

CF Verdugo (probable)

RF Renfroe

LF (????)

DH Martinez

 

In reality, there are no clear choices at 2nd or the outfield but it does look clear that Hernandez, Verdugo and Renfroe will occupy some of those and be on the 26 man. I count 9 clear choices.

 

So how then do the Sox choose the remaining players on opening day. There can be either 3 or 4 names depending on how many pitchers we choose to keep.

 

You pick-em:

 

Munoz

Gonzalez

Arroyo

Arauz

Santana

Codero

Chavis

Duran

 

So if we only can take 3 of those along who do we bring? I don't think Codero is a clear cut choice. Gonzalez was picked up and I believe he will make it. Is Arroyo likely?

 

I can't make out the thinking behind the acquisitions, especially from the standpoint of bringing up Druran, Downs and possibly others this year. Is the thinking to bring in a lot of lower cost talent and hope that at least a few will perform above their average? Do they then trade away from the stockpile as the season unfolds?

[mvp 78]

Do be we want sale pitching at all this year?

 

Yes.

[mvp 78]

Cordero LF

Bench: Plawecki, Marwin, Arroyo

[moonslav59]

I admit to being confused about what the Sox are thinking about to fill the 26 man roster for opening day. I have heard they want to have 14 pitchers and 12 position players at the beginning but traditionally there is less need for pitching numbers early in the season. So it's either 12 position players or 13 for opening day.

 

Barring injuries or sickness it's pretty clear who those position players will be with a few exceptions

 

1st Dalbec

2nd Hernandez (probable)

SS Bogaerts

3rd Devers

C1 Vazquez

C2 Plaweki

CF Verdugo (probable)

RF Renfroe

LF (????)

DH Martinez

 

In reality, there are no clear choices at 2nd or the outfield but it does look clear that Hernandez, Verdugo and Renfroe will occupy some of those and be on the 26 man. I count 9 clear choices.

 

So how then do the Sox choose the remaining players on opening day. There can be either 3 or 4 names depending on how many pitchers we choose to keep.

 

You pick-em:

 

Munoz

Gonzalez

Arroyo

Arauz

Santana

Codero

Chavis

Duran

 

So if we only can take 3 of those along who do we bring? I don't think Codero is a clear cut choice. Gonzalez was picked up and I believe he will make it. Is Arroyo likely?

 

I can't make out the thinking behind the acquisitions, especially from the standpoint of bringing up Druran, Downs and possibly others this year. Is the thinking to bring in a lot of lower cost talent and hope that at least a few will perform above their average? Do they then trade away from the stockpile as the season unfolds?

 

First, the April schedule is not like "the old days." Yes, we have the day off after opening day and then another a week later, but that is followed by 16 straight days with games, assuming no rainouts.

 

I don't see the need for 14 pitchers, even with a pretty full schedule, but I guess they may want to start pitchers off very slowly.

 

Second, Munoz and Santana are not even on the 40 man roster, so unless we add them, they will not be chosen. If anyone is place on the 60 day IL, God forbid, then maybe.

 

So, your nine plus 3-4. Gonzalez has to be one. If Cordero is ready to play, he's a clear #2. That leaves 1-2 slots (I hope 2.)

 

My guess is Arroyo has the inside track, as of now. He can play SS, 2B and 3B, and Chavis cannot. Arauz can, too, and he's off to a nice start, but I think Arroyo is #3.

 

To me, Chavis needs to get a long look, so we can decide his future with the Sox. I get the excitement and hype over Duran, but I've thought all along that he could use a little more time in the minors, but since AAA does not start until May, I'd hate to think he's not playing. #4 is a tough call. I think it's all about Cordero. If he looks like he can play everyday, that would squeeze Duran out of playing time, and I like Chavis as a PH'er and back up 1B, 3B and 2Bman- maybe even LF.

 

I'd start Duran, Munoz, Santana and Arauz in AAA and go with 13 pitchers.

 

(Sale on 60 day IL)

 

SP1 ERod

SP2 Eovaldi

SP3 Richards

SP4 Pivetta

SP5 Perez

(Houck starts in AAA)

 

RP1A Ottavino

RP1B Barnes

RP3 D Hern

RP4 Brasier

RP5 Sawamura

RP6 Andriese (spot starter)

RP7 Brice (out of options)

RP8 Whitlock (Rule 5)

(Taylor & Valdez in AAA)