A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[moonslav59]

2020 Tax Salary Budget:

$Millions

31.0 Price

25.6 Sale

22.0 JD (assuming option)

20.0 Bogey

17.0 Eovaldi

13.8 Pedey

4.5 Vaz

Total:$134M (7 players)

 

Arbs: (est)

27 Betts (3rd of 3 arbs)

10 JBJ (4 of 4)

9 ERod (3 of 4)

4 Beni (1 of 3)

3 Workman (3 of 3)

3 Barnes (2 of 3)

2 Hembree (2 of 3)

1 Wright (3 of 3)

1 Hernandez (1 of 3)

Total $60M (9 players)

 

Non arbs (24 players on 40 man roster)

Total: $11M

 

40 man roster with no FA signings: $205M +$15M player benefits= $220M

 

The limit is $208M, next year, so to reset, we'll need to trade about $12M in salary and sign no free agents. For argument's sake, let's say we trade JBJ & Hembree and "save" about $12M. This is what we'd have left for 2020:

 

25 man roster

SP: Sale, Price, ERod, Eovaldi, DHern,

RP: Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Walden, Johnson, Velazquez, Brasier, Wright

C: Vazquez, Centeno

1B: Dalbec

2B: Chavis, Hernandez

SS: Bogaerts, Lin or Chatham

3B: Devers

LF: Travis (or JD)

CF: Benintendi

RF: Betts

DH: JD Martinez (or Chavis/Dalbec)

 

The rest of the 40 man roster:

Pedroia IL

Lin or Chatham (1 on 25 man)

Reyes

Lakins

Poyner

Weber

Shawaryn

J Smith

Curletta

Kelley

Ockimey

 

Feltman

Houck

Duran

A Rei

T Ward

[moonslav59]

Kimbrel to the IL.

[moonslav59]

My plan for 2019.

 

Place Price and Sale on the 60 day IL. It may help them be stronger next year.

 

Stretch Eovaldi & DHern out to become starters by September. We'll need them as starters in 2020.

 

See what Marco (2B), Chavis (1B), Travis (1B/OF/DH), Johnson & Velazquez (SP) and Lakins, Taylor, Walden, Poyner and others can show us over the next 8 weeks. It may help us plan for 2020 a little better.

 

[devildavid]

As someone who warned during the off season that we were asking for trouble , and was scoffed at for it , I now say this : Why are you all giving up when we are six and a half back with forty eight to play ? While coming back is difficult , it is certainly not impossible or unprecedented. How can you give up now ?

 

I saw early on that the best to hope for was for a WC spot while many others kept thinking they could take the division. After the debacle of sweeps by the Rays and Yanks it is plain to see that this team has no great runs in them. It's all over but the shouting.

[Nick]

My plan for 2019.

 

Place Price and Sale on the 60 day IL. It may help them be stronger next year.

 

Stretch Eovaldi & DHern out to become starters by September. We'll need them as starters in 2020.

 

See what Marco (2B), Chavis (1B), Travis (1B/OF/DH), Johnson & Velazquez (SP) and Lakins, Taylor, Walden, Poyner and others can show us over the next 8 weeks. It may help us plan for 2020 a little better.

 

 

Moon with all due respect, we know what the f*** Johnson & Velazques can do as starting pitchers. Why not let Hernandez start? He was in the pen to help the Sox get into the playoffs. If they're out of it, why not start him? Johnson and Velazques aint't going to pitch any better than they have been. We know their ceiling. Move on. We're better than them.

[cp176]

i dont think anyone was a bigger detractor to the Price signing then me, but once that parade happened i will never complain about the signing again. the 2 (crawford vs price) should never be compared again. panda will have to keep crawford company from now on......

 

Nice - i like you even more than i did before. Now you know that that is hard for me to say Mr. Espnoza.

[cp176]

Moon with all due respect, we know what the f*** Johnson & Velazques can do as starting pitchers. Why not let Hernandez start? He was in the pen to help the Sox get into the playoffs. If they're out of it, why not start him? Johnson and Velazques aint't going to pitch any better than they have been. We know their ceiling. Move on. We're better than them.

 

I have been a huge supporter of Brian Johnson but I would say that it is time to let both of these boys go. If you want fillers, use someone else. I think that we all know what they have and in all honesty it just isn't enough.

[cp176]

Totally agree. Amazed how quick so many are to quit on him. Not so amazed Jackson is posting giddily along the same lines.

 

I understand that I am a big time homer when it comes to this guy Hitch but I really just don't get it with some people. They flipped the switch and are ready to put this future Hall of Fame pitcher out to pasture. I say just give him some time and he'll figure things out. He is the purist type of gamer that everyone wants on their team. He is much tougher on himself than anyone posting here. From my front row seat it is a lot easier to criticize i guess than it is to compliment.

[draws]

Time for Barnes to either retire or get sent down to single A. I thought there was a chance but tonight takes the cake. He's useless.

[illinoisredsox]

Time for Barnes to either retire or get sent down to single A. I thought there was a chance but tonight takes the cake. He's useless.

 

If he’s so worthless, how did he go the entire month of July giving up no runs and only 3 hits over 10 appearances?

[moonslav59]

Moon with all due respect, we know what the f*** Johnson & Velazques can do as starting pitchers. Why not let Hernandez start? He was in the pen to help the Sox get into the playoffs. If they're out of it, why not start him? Johnson and Velazques aint't going to pitch any better than they have been. We know their ceiling. Move on. We're better than them.

 

I said stretch DHern out to starter this year.

 

Johnson & Velazquez looked good last year and bad this year. I'd like to see more before I pull the plug. It's not like there's some hot prospect they are blocking.

 

I'm not expecting Johnson or Velazquez to show a higher ceiling, but one could be our 5th starter next year. DHern will get as many innings as he needs under my plan.

[moonslav59]

If he’s so worthless, how did he go the entire month of July giving up no runs and only 3 hits over 10 appearances?

 

Weber is our ace, and Barnes should be demoted.

 

This site is getting loopy.

[oldtimer]

2020 Tax Salary Budget:

$Millions

31.0 Price

25.6 Sale

22.0 JD (assuming option)

20.0 Bogey

17.0 Eovaldi

13.8 Pedey

4.5 Vaz

Total:$134M (7 players)

 

Arbs: (est)

27 Betts (3rd of 3 arbs)

10 JBJ (4 of 4)

9 ERod (3 of 4)

4 Beni (1 of 3)

3 Workman (3 of 3)

3 Barnes (2 of 3)

2 Hembree (2 of 3)

1 Wright (3 of 3)

1 Hernandez (1 of 3)

Total $60M (9 players)

 

Non arbs (24 players on 40 man roster)

Total: $11M

 

40 man roster with no FA signings: $205M +$15M player benefits= $220M

 

The limit is $208M, next year, so to reset, we'll need to trade about $12M in salary and sign no free agents. For argument's sake, let's say we trade JBJ & Hembree and "save" about $12M. This is what we'd have left for 2020:

 

25 man roster

SP: Sale, Price, ERod, Eovaldi, DHern,

RP: Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Walden, Johnson, Velazquez, Brasier, Wright

C: Vazquez, Centeno

1B: Dalbec

2B: Chavis, Hernandez

SS: Bogaerts, Lin or Chatham

3B: Devers

LF: Travis (or JD)

CF: Benintendi

RF: Betts

DH: JD Martinez (or Chavis/Dalbec)

 

The rest of the 40 man roster:

Pedroia IL

Lin or Chatham (1 on 25 man)

Reyes

Lakins

Poyner

Weber

Shawaryn

J Smith

Curletta

Kelley

Ockimey

 

Feltman

Houck

Duran

A Rei

T Ward

 

Do you really think Betts season will justify and arb raise of 7 million?

 

You cut Holt out presumably because he's tradeable and will be on the decline by 2021. I would replace both Johnson and Velazquez and bring D. Hernandez up and possibly he could be a 5th or 6th starter in 2021. Wright probably should go as well and Barnes and Hembree are hard throwers and may be tradeable but aren't guys I see as helping us going forward. Weber looks like a 25 man roster pitcher. I'm then missing two relief pitchers who need to be picked up unless some of our 40 man can suppy them.

 

I like Chatham over Lin long term for utility, Hernandez at second and Chavis at 1st. I can see the need for Travis for utility 1st and outfield but would give Duran a look to see if he can play at the ML level in 2020. Another CF candidate with great speed might be a help. If he fit, then Dalbec vs Travis might be worth a look.

[oldtimer]

Weber is our ace, and Barnes should be demoted.

 

This site is getting loopy.

 

I tend to agree that Barnes needs to be traded. He has been horrible of late and blew some saves early.

[harmony]

I tend to agree that Barnes needs to be traded. He has been horrible of late and blew some saves early.

One website gives Matt Barnes a surplus value of $29.6 million, just ahead of Eduardo Rodriguez ($26.9 million) and J.D. Martinez ($25 million):

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

[moonslav59]

I tend to agree that Barnes needs to be traded. He has been horrible of late and blew some saves early.

 

1) The post was not about trading Barnes.

2) Barnes had 3 good to very good seasons before this one.

3) Trading a player when his stock is down is usually not a good idea.

4) I'm hopeful Barnes will be good going forward, and this "bad year" may lower his arb cost.

[Nick]

I said stretch DHern out to starter this year.

 

Johnson & Velazquez looked good last year and bad this year. I'd like to see more before I pull the plug. It's not like there's some hot prospect they are blocking.

 

I'm not expecting Johnson or Velazquez to show a higher ceiling, but one could be our 5th starter next year. DHern will get as many innings as he needs under my plan.

 

My apologies...I was wondering who DHern the prospect I never heard was.........got it...

[jacksonianmarch]

Barnes is a candidate for a change of scenery. He’s going to get some cash from the arb fairy and has looked like a deer in headlights in big spots. He’s got a great arsenal, but it’s either he’s tipping pitches or he’s got no deception and hitters see him well.

[Bellhorn04]

Barnes is a candidate for a change of scenery. He’s going to get some cash from the arb fairy and has looked like a deer in headlights in big spots.

 

Well, he'll always have the 2018 postseason:

 

10 appearances

2 wins, 3 holds

8.2 IP

1 ER

.464 OPSa

 

I think we hold onto him and see how he does with a new pitching coach.

[jacksonianmarch]

You might for sure. Stuff isn’t a problem.

[Slasher9]

Well, he'll always have the 2018 postseason:

 

10 appearances

2 wins, 3 holds

8.2 IP

1 ER

.464 OPSa

.

 

wait...i thought he was a deer in headlights??? thats what jacksonianmarch says. those numbers cant be right because the Postseason is the biggest stage you can get on. not some f***ing regular season games in the bronx with half empty seats. Please recheck your numbers....he is a "deer in headlights" as deemed by the non troll troll. so it must be true.

[Bellhorn04]

One website gives Matt Barnes a surplus value of $29.6 million, just ahead of Eduardo Rodriguez ($26.9 million) and J.D. Martinez ($25 million):

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

I'm a little surprised to see JDM with that much 'surplus value', considering his age, DH status, and player-friendly contract.

[oldtimer]

You might for sure. Stuff isn’t a problem.

 

The problem is between the ears. Not good under any pressure this year.

[oldtimer]

My apologies...I was wondering who DHern the prospect I never heard was.........got it...

 

I went to bed last night wondering the same thing and then realized he was talking about D Hernandez. I certainly agree that he is our besst hope for getting a starter from our prospect list. Just needs to be more consistent with location. If he was with the Astros, he would already be better, they have a knack with their pitchers .

[notin]

Time for Barnes to either retire or get sent down to single A. I thought there was a chance but tonight takes the cake. He's useless.

 

Retire? He’s 29!

 

And got better every year from 2015 through 2018.

 

But he took one step back, so he has to go? Betts took a step back this year, too. Should he retire?

[OH FOY]

Whole team took step backward, be hard pressed to win 88 games. That's a 20 game difference from last year. Team and Fans thought it would be a cake walk. I'm one of those Fans too. 16 in the loss column to the Yanks. Talk about Beatdown.

Yanks won 100 last year and they will win 100+ again this year, that's consistency.

Edited August 6, 2019 by OH FOY!

[notin]

Whole team took step backward, be hard pressed to win 88 games. That's a 20 game difference from last year. Team and Fans thought it would be a cake walk. I'm one of those Fans too. 16 in the loss column to the Yanks. Talk about Beatdown.

 

It’s ok for fans to think it would be a cakewalk. The problem is it looks like the Sox management and players did, as well...

[Maxbialystock]

wait...i thought he was a deer in headlights??? thats what jacksonianmarch says. those numbers cant be right because the Postseason is the biggest stage you can get on. not some f***ing regular season games in the bronx with half empty seats. Please recheck your numbers....he is a "deer in headlights" as deemed by the non troll troll. so it must be true.

 

I think deer in the headlights can happen to almost any pitcher because the demands are so great: you have to be able to throw the ball pretty hard, hopefully put some spin on it, and hit your spots. Most pitchers can throw strikes 2/3 of the time, but it's hard to keep hitting spots while getting strikes 2/3 of the time. Barnes has a pretty good fastball and curve--and other pitches--but his command comes and goes.

 

Last year Kelly was the embodiment of a pitcher whose command was suspect and he drove most of us nuts during the regular season, but in the postseason he was terrific.

 

ERod is an even better example. See especially his last start against the Yankees. He didn't have it in the 1st inning, gave up 2 walks and a hit, and then, with the pressure on, threw a fat pitch that became a grand slam. He then pitched 6 innings of shut out baseball despite giving up 4 more walks.

[OH FOY]

I agree. Notin.

[jacksonianmarch]

wait...i thought he was a deer in headlights??? thats what jacksonianmarch says. those numbers cant be right because the Postseason is the biggest stage you can get on. not some f***ing regular season games in the bronx with half empty seats. Please recheck your numbers....he is a "deer in headlights" as deemed by the non troll troll. so it must be true.

 

He was being relied upon early in higher leverage situations and he failed. Now it’s snowballed. He was nails in the post season last year, but he always had Kimbrel to back him up. Coming into the year, he was the best reliever back there and he’s been an abject disaster