A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[moonslav59]

I don't think the deferred money counts any differently. I thought (I could be wrong) it is total compensation divided by years of control.

 

cots has Sale at $25.6M per year over the next 4 years on their tax budget list.

[jacksonianmarch]

cots isn't always right, but I could be wrong as well

[moonslav59]

cots isn't always right, but I could be wrong as well

 

I've seen $25.6M in other sites, too.

[Bellhorn04]

cots isn't always right, but I could be wrong as well

 

I've seen $25.6M in other sites, too.

 

There was also a big story about how Sale wanted to do this to help the team a little.

[jung]

There was also a big story about how Sale wanted to do this to help the team a little.

 

Does he now....how about pitch better!

[Bellhorn04]

Does he now....how about pitch better!

 

C'mon now jung, cheap lines like that are not worthy of you.

[notin]

C'mon now jung, cheap lines like that are not worthy of you.

 

I was going to use it, too. I think we both agree I’m not above that type of behavior...

[jung]

C'mon now jung, cheap lines like that are not worthy of you.

 

I know....these guys are driving my cynicism to new lows.

[notin]

This team is so reminiscent of the 2012 team. Great on paper but awful on the field. Every now and then, the 2012 Sox would put together a mini streak that gave you some hope, like that Cody Ross series against the White Sox. But then they’d follow it up by floundering hopelessly and making you mad at yourself for thinking they had a chance...

[notin]

There was also a big story about how Sale wanted to do this to help the team a little.

 

He should be happy. He’s been helping a lot of teams...

[Nick]

I've seen $25.6M in other sites, too.

 

You realize that we have dead money included in AAV calculation long after he retires, right?

[moonslav59]

You realize that we have dead money included in AAV calculation long after he retires, right?

 

Yes, but it won't be much per year.

 

I'm still confident the contract will be a winner for both sides.

[dgalehouse]

Pretty dismal performance today . Facing what was probably the weakest lineup the Yankees can put out there . Should be even weaker tonight without Encarnacion .

[moonslav59]

It's over.

 

Time to think about 2020.

[Bellhorn04]

You realize that we have dead money included in AAV calculation long after he retires, right?

 

I'm 99.9% sure that deferred money will not be part of AAV for tax purposes after he retires.

 

I believe that under the new CBA, AAV of contracts with deferred money uses a present value calculation on the deferred portion. It's the only thing that makes sense.

 

Under the previous CBA, Scherzer signed a contract with a huge amount of deferred money, but there was no adjustment for it.

 

Actually now that I look at it, Scherzer's AAV seems to be discounted too.

Edited August 3, 2019 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

Pretty dismal performance today . Facing what was probably the weakest lineup the Yankees can put out there . Should be even weaker tonight without Encarnacion .

 

And yet the Yankees will still light up the Sox pitching...

[dannycater]

It's over.

 

Time to think about 2020.

 

Agreed

[moonslav59]

The sad part about this season is that Devers and Bogey really came into their own to no avail.

 

We may end up with 4 guys over .900.

 

Devers

Bogey

JD

Betts

 

Vaz and Beni over .800.

 

Sad.

[notin]

The sad part about this season is that Devers and Bogey really came into their own to no avail.

 

We may end up with 4 guys over .900.

 

Devers

Bogey

JD

Betts

 

Vaz and Beni over .800.

 

Sad.

 

Several teams might be making that claim a la the Manfred Missile...

[moonslav59]

Several teams might be making that claim a la the Manfred Missile...

 

Nobody else is even close to having 4 guys over .880.

 

We have 4 in the top 25.

 

The Astros have 2.

 

The Twins, Mets & Yanks have 2.

[moonslav59]

Some more comps to 2018.

 

2019:

10-15 when scoring 4-5 runs

2018:

33-9 when scoring 4-5 runs

 

2019/2018:

14-2 when allowing 1-2 runs/ 38-4 in 2018

10-2 when allowing 3 runs/ 22-4 in 2018

20-15 when allowing 4-5 runs/ 22-14 in 2018

10-18 when allowing 6-8 runs/10-21 in 2018

 

[moonslav59]

Should I start the "A Realistic View at 2020: Part I," now?

[jung]

The last time any MLB team had the top offense in baseball and did not even make the post season was.......the 2011 Chicken and Beer Red Sox. Does this look familiar or what?

[moonslav59]

The Good

 

.731 to .939 Devers

.883 to .959 Bogaerts

.540 to .809 Vazquez

n/a to .862 Hernandez

n/a to .773 Chavis

.774 to .782 Holt

3.27 to 2.08 Workman

3.82 to 4.19 ERod

n/a to 3.62 Walden

 

The Bad

1.031 to 913 JD

1.078 to .885 Betts

.830 to 826 Beni

.758 to .812 Moreland (IL too much)

.717 to 720 JBJ

.511 to .559 Leon

3.58 to 3.86 Price

 

The Ugly

2.11 to 4.48 Sale

4.28 to 5.74 Porcello

3.65 to 4.01 Barnes

1.60 to 4.46 Brasier

3.33 to 6.66 Eovaldi

3.18 to 5.67 Velazquez

[moonslav59]

The last time any MLB team had the top offense in baseball and did not even make the post season was.......the 2011 Chicken and Beer Red Sox. Does this look familiar or what?

 

Kinda-sorta.

 

That team had a nice pen:

Papelbon 31 saves 2.94 ERA/0.93 WHIP

D Bard 3.33/0.96

Aceves 2.61/1.11

 

The rotation looked to be very good, but 3 guys flopped:

6.41 Lackey (injured)

5.12 Wake

5.54 A Miller (12 GS'd)

Beckett (2.89), Buch (3.48) and Lester (3.47) did well.

 

Top OPS:

.957 AGon

.953 Papi

.928 Ells

.861 Pedey

.833 Youk

 

[oldtimer]

Should I start the "A Realistic View at 2020: Part I," now?

 

Really, 2019 is no longer viable. Just a requiem.

[oldtimer]

The Good

 

.731 to .939 Devers

.883 to .959 Bogaerts

.540 to .809 Vazquez

n/a to .862 Hernandez

n/a to .773 Chavis

.774 to .782 Holt

3.27 to 2.08 Workman

3.82 to 4.19 ERod

n/a to 3.62 Walden

 

The Bad

1.031 to 913 JD

1.078 to .885 Betts

.830 to 826 Beni

.758 to .812 Moreland (IL too much)

.717 to 720 JBJ

.511 to .559 Leon

3.58 to 3.86 Price

 

The Ugly

2.11 to 4.48 Sale

4.28 to 5.74 Porcello

3.65 to 4.01 Barnes

1.60 to 4.46 Brasier

3.33 to 6.66 Eovaldi

3.18 to 5.67 Velazquez

 

Why do you pur Beni in the bad column when his OPS is essentially the same and he is playing well now?

[Nick]

Moon, it's almost time for Realistic View at 2019 Part III

 

It's time to follow Kimmi's approach and rebuild......

 

I'm excited about Dalbec moving up to AAA.

 

I'm excited for our young/veteran talent under contract/control, led by Xavier, Devers, Chavis, Hernandez (both).

 

Mookie and JBJ are rentals as far as I'm concerned.

 

Let's rebuild. Quit starting guys like Johnson. He's got no future, no ceiling. Mediocre at best. I rather see younger guys get his opportunity.

 

This organization need to have a Jesus meeting and discuss its failure of developing young starting pitching. What the hell?

 

If we're going to lose, lose with younger kids. Thank Moreland and Pearce, let them sit this one out.

 

It's time to move on.....

[cp176]

This team is so reminiscent of the 2012 team. Great on paper but awful on the field. Every now and then, the 2012 Sox would put together a mini streak that gave you some hope, like that Cody Ross series against the White Sox. But then they’d follow it up by floundering hopelessly and making you mad at yourself for thinking they had a chance...

 

You are so so right on this one but it is also imo the beauty of sports in general. Not everything is predictable. There are so many intangibles that figure in to success in any sport. It is always fun to predict things based on past performance but until the games begin no one can say with any certainty what is going to happen. This year's team has been a huge disappointment - who could have figured that one.

[jung]

The sad part about this season is that Devers and Bogey really came into their own to no avail.

 

We may end up with 4 guys over .900.

 

Devers

Bogey

JD

Betts

 

Vaz and Beni over .800.

 

Sad.

 

I am not sure the top OPS numbers (900+) is where we should be looking for the effects of the Manfred Missile on stats because you still only get four bags for a single HR no matter how far the ball travels. Notice that none of these players are really challenging the season HR record, however there are now legions of hitters hitting 20 or more HR's to the point where that mark can no longer be a mark of distinction. 20 is now a big so what. 30 for that matter is a big so what. Worse, they have got us thinking that 200 K's for a hitter is a big so what AND ITS NOT!

 

The combination of the Manfred Missile and emphasis on velo and spin rate AT THE EXPENSE of command for pitchers plus the overload shift is driving this game to levels or boredom that are laughable.

 

The recent Paxton/ERod Yankee/Red Sox game provide two sides of this same coin and one of the most boring Sox/Yanks game I can remember in a long time.

 

Erod for example exceeded all sorts of marks for bad stats for a starting pitching especially for BB's for example but literally controlled the Yankee hitters outside of the first inning because he was not even trying to throw strikes. He simply kept completely away from the strike zone and allowed the Yankee hitters to swing themselves out of their shoelaces and out of AB's one after the other in a comical series of futile plate appearances. They were swinging at pitches more than a foot off the plate that never once threatened the strike zone. As a consequence Erod never felt threatened on the mound in the way we have seen him tighten up and throw stressfully in the past because he was never anywhere near the strike zone most of the night.....throwing fewer actual strikes to hitters than I have seen in a long time. He went 6, 2/3 innings on a 116 total stress free pitches. Since when does ERod go 116 pitches? When he is throwing stress free all night....thats when!

 

Paxton for his part threw many more hittable pitches to the Sox hitters, many of them off speed pitches in very hittable locations "wild in the strike zone". However the Sox hitters simply seemed incapable of executing the oldest rule of hitting when attacking a pitcher that has heat but is not necessarily employing it. You look for pitches in a location with less than two strikes, widen the zone with two strikes in order to protect. Deeper into the count allow room in your mind for the thought that the flame throwing hurler may just not be throwing flame on the next pitch and widen your base even slightly in the batters box. Said hitter then can stay back when a goofy looking meatball of a slider comes up to the plate instead of the gas you were expecting and can hit it as opposed to making such poor contact that he is just an out or misses it entirely and is JUST AN OUT.

 

Both examples are simply different versions of the same problem. While the problem starts with the Manfred Missile and too much emphasis on velo and spin rate with little to no concern for command from pitchers, the problem progresses to hitters simply swinging at every pitch as if the count is 2-1. Does not matter the actual count, they are all swinging as if the count starts at 2-1 and stays at 2-1 until they finally hit the damned ball, BB or K.

 

I am not saying that good pitching WON'T beat good hitting. I am simply saying that two teams of "competent" hitters being driven to utter futility and producing hours of total boredom when facing the towering pitching majesty of HOF candidates ERod and Paxton is something different than "good pitching will always beat good hitting".

 

The Manfred Missile and the emphasis on velo and spin rate with little thought given to command for pitchers is also why they can no longer throw inside effectively allowing hitters like Rafi and X and the Dodgers Bellinger and even Sam Travis.....SAM TRAVIS for God sake to simply reach out over the plate with impunity and doink balls to the opposite field. Heck you can doink balls the opposite field OVER THE FENCE with the Manfred Missile.

 

So I am not sure focusing on how many hitters are producing a .900+ OPS as much as it might be focusing on how many guys have moved from .650+ to .750+ and how many guys have moved from .750+ to .825+.

Edited August 4, 2019 by jung