A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[notin]

Just as an aside, as for how the team was constructed, DD himself came out and said more than once this year and most recently just today that "THE TEAM WAS BUILT AROUND ITS ROTATION".

 

 

We all get that,. And the rotation has been awful. But building a team around the rotation shouldn’t mean ignoring the bullpen. And watching the rotation flounder and struggle also shouldn’t mean you ignore any struggles in the bullpen...

[moonslav59]

We really only had one guy that Cora was willing to give the fireman role to and that was Barnes. Barnes absolutely got overused because he got so many of the high stress relief assignments as Mr Fireman. Early on Brasier got the other high stress relief innings and he folded like an aluminum lawn chair. IMO, the only guys that were really getting high stress assignments of any sort for the entire season were Barnes...overworked in that role, Hembree....broke down in that role, Brasier....folded like a cheap suit in that role and Workman who turned out to be a workhorse. He is the only guy that survived it.

 

Brasier was actually given more closing opportunities than Barnes at the start of the season. Barnes and Brasier both have 10 save opportunities. (Barnes had 3 last year.)

 

Barnes is on pace for way less innings than last year, and I didn't even count the playoff innings. Barnes pitched many high leverage innings last year.

 

2018:

8.2 IP in playoffs

99 PAs against in high leverage/162 Late & Close (Reg season only)

If you add the playoffs, it's probably more like 135 high leverage and 180 Late & Close

 

2019:

102 high leverage (on pace for about 140)

149 Late & Close (on pace for about 190)

 

I'm not buying it.

 

Barnes has just sucked.

 

[moonslav59]

We all get that,. And the rotation has been awful. But building a team around the rotation shouldn’t mean ignoring the bullpen. And watching the rotation flounder and struggle also shouldn’t mean you ignore any struggles in the bullpen...

 

Exactly. DD left about $3-4M to spend on the pen, then decided not to even spend that during the season.

 

Every team has weaker areas. We chose to build up every area, except the pen.

 

The plan failed, but not just because the pen failed us. Our rotation has been a larger factor in our losses than the pen. The pen has done more to win games than the starters.

 

Go back and look- game by game. Forget expectations, salaries or any arguments about overwork- our rotation has sucked more than the pen has sucked.

 

[jung]

Brasier was actually given more closing opportunities than Barnes at the start of the season. Barnes and Brasier both have 10 save opportunities. (Barnes had 3 last year.)

 

Barnes is on pace for way less innings than last year, and I didn't even count the playoff innings. Barnes pitched many high leverage innings last year.

 

2018:

8.2 IP in playoffs

99 PAs against in high leverage/162 Late & Close (Reg season only)

If you add the playoffs, it's probably more like 135 high leverage and 180 Late & Close

 

2019:

102 high leverage (on pace for about 140)

149 Late & Close (on pace for about 190)

 

I'm not buying it.

 

Barnes has just sucked.

 

 

Barnes has generally not sucked the first stint of back to backs. But has sucked in the second game of back to backs and has absolutely sucked in any instances when he was used back to back to back. All of those stints were high leverage in that he was being used in the Fireman role. If a fire needed to be extinguished, Barnes got it. If we were down to the 7th inning and Barnes had not been used in the Fireman role then Cora was looking at the opposing lineup and stuffing Barnes in against the toughest three hitters the opponent had coming up in the late innings. I think the combination of Fireman assignments and toughest three opponent hitters late assignments killed him. For the period of time Brasier was the closer, Barnes got everything else that qualifies as high stress. So I don't think it was the total quantity of innings as much as Barnes never got a break and in truth he could not cut it under those circumstances. So you could say he sucked. I would say he just could not get it done in circumstances where every assignment was high stress. Actually, neither Barnes nor Brasier held up in the assignments they were given and I frankly don't remember many posters here offering that they thought they would hold up in those assignments.

 

Brasier IMO had no shot. Maybe Cora should have spread Barnes high stress assignments a bit more through the pen. Cora tried to give some of them to Hembree and that didn't last very long. Given how many innings Work ended up with I don't think we could have handed more of them to Work. Heck who knows if Work will hold up. There are still 46 games to go.

 

They might have been better off just bitting the bullet and sink or swim with DHern getting more work. But that surely looked dicey earlier in the season.

[moonslav59]

Barnes has generally not sucked the first stint of back to backs. But has sucked in the second game of back to backs and has absolutely sucked in any instances when he was used back to back to back. All of those stints were high leverage in that he was being used in the Fireman role. If a fire needed to be extinguished, Barnes got it. If we were down to the 7th inning and Barnes had not been used in the Fireman role then Cora was looking at the opposing lineup and stuffing Barnes in against the toughest three hitters the opponent had coming up in the late innings. I think the combination of Fireman assignments and toughest three opponent hitters late assignments killed him. For the period of time Brasier was the closer, Barnes got everything else that qualifies as high stress. So I don't think it was the total quantity of innings as much as Barnes never got a break and in truth he could not cut it under those circumstances. So you could say he sucked. I would say he just could not get it done in circumstances where every assignment was high stress. Actually, neither Barnes nor Brasier held up in the assignments they were given and I frankly don't remember many posters here offering that they thought they would hold up in those assignments.

 

Brasier IMO had no shot. Maybe Cora should have spread Barnes high stress assignments a bit more through the pen. Cora tried to give some of them to Hembree and that didn't last very long. Given how many innings Work ended up with I don't think we could have handed more of them to Work. Heck who knows if Work will hold up. There are still 46 games to go.

 

They might have been better off just bitting the bullet and sink or swim with DHern getting more work. But that surely looked dicey earlier in the season.

 

The fact is Brasier was given more high leverage opportunities earlier in the season. He basically lost the closer job to Barnes and Workman. That automatically limited the amount of times Barnes has been used as the closer.

 

I'm not denying that he has been counted on to close more than last year, but it's not by a whole lot.

 

Last year, he pitched in many back-to-back games in high leverage situations. He was just about lights out, last year.

 

Maybe the pressure was just too much this year, or maybe he was just due for a bad year. Maybe it was a little of both.

 

Maybe he'd have sucked had we signed Ottavino instead of Eovaldi.

 

Last year's back-to-back and back-to-back-to backs:

 

3/30-4/1

0 ER in 0.2 (2nd game)

 

5/9, 5/10, 5/11

1 IP 0 ER (2nd)

1 IP 0 ER (3rd)

 

6/9, 6/10

1 IP 2 ER

 

7/26, 7/27

0.2 IP 0 ER

 

8/10, 8/11, 8/12

1.0 0 ER

1.0 1 ER

 

This year, he's done this:

4/19, 4/20, 4/21 (1-1 and 1-1)

5/14, 5/15 (0.2-0)

6/1, 6/2 (1-3)

6/12, 6/13 (1-0)

6/21,6/22 (0.2-3)

6/25, 6/26 (0.1 2)

7/4-5-6 (1.0-0, 0.1 0)

7/14, 7/15 (0.1 0)

7/22-23 (1.0-0)

 

He's also had this....

0.2-1 ER after 2 days rest

1.0- 1 after 3

0.0- 1 after 2

1.0- 1 after 4

0.2- 2 after 2

0.1- 3 after 4

0.2- 2 after 4

1.0- 2 after 2

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

We all get that,. And the rotation has been awful. But building a team around the rotation shouldn’t mean ignoring the bullpen. And watching the rotation flounder and struggle also shouldn’t mean you ignore any struggles in the bullpen...

 

When it comes to the blame pie, rotation or bullpen, I think whichever you pick, you're not wrong. And if you pick both, you're doubly right. It's what you might call a clusterf**k.

[jung]

We all get that,. And the rotation has been awful. But building a team around the rotation shouldn’t mean ignoring the bullpen. And watching the rotation flounder and struggle also shouldn’t mean you ignore any struggles in the bullpen...

 

Yup....and I still don't think closer by committee makes a hill of beans of sense. I will however repeat that bullpens and relief pitchers generally have always been a DD blind spot. For all of DD's "experience" it is no less a blind spot now than it has always been for him, right in the face of bullpens being transitioning to being a much more significant component of an MLB team than they ever were in the past.

Edited August 8, 2019 by jung

[jung]

The fact is Brasier was given more high leverage opportunities earlier in the season. He basically lost the closer job to Barnes and Workman. That automatically limited the amount of times Barnes has been used as the closer.

 

I'm not denying that he has been counted on to close more than last year, but it's not by a whole lot.

 

Last year, he pitched in many back-to-back games in high leverage situations. He was just about lights out, last year.

 

Maybe the pressure was just too much this year, or maybe he was just due for a bad year. Maybe it was a little of both.

 

Maybe he'd have sucked had we signed Ottavino instead of Eovaldi.

 

Last year's back-to-back and back-to-back-to backs:

 

3/30-4/1

0 ER in 0.2 (2nd game)

 

5/9, 5/10, 5/11

1 IP 0 ER (2nd)

1 IP 0 ER (3rd)

 

6/9, 6/10

1 IP 2 ER

 

7/26, 7/27

0.2 IP 0 ER

 

8/10, 8/11, 8/12

1.0 0 ER

1.0 1 ER

 

This year, he's done this:

4/19, 4/20, 4/21 (1-1 and 1-1)

5/14, 5/15 (0.2-0)

6/1, 6/2 (1-3)

6/12, 6/13 (1-0)

6/21,6/22 (0.2-3)

6/25, 6/26 (0.1 2)

7/4-5-6 (1.0-0, 0.1 0)

7/14, 7/15 (0.1 0)

7/22-23 (1.0-0)

 

He's also had this....

0.2-1 ER after 2 days rest

1.0- 1 after 3

0.0- 1 after 2

1.0- 1 after 4

0.2- 2 after 2

0.1- 3 after 4

0.2- 2 after 4

1.0- 2 after 2

 

 

 

 

Yea...if Cora had not used Barnes as a fireman earlier in a particular game he would look over the opponent's projected lineup for innings 7-9 and insert Barnes where he saw the most threatening hitters appearing for the opposing team. There was no mystery to what Cora was doing.

 

Brasier got the 9th UNLESS the opponent's most threatening hitters were projected to come up in the 9th. I think Cora BECAME less inclined to that formula as Workman came on, Brasier disappeared and Hembree broke down. Cora grew to have more confidence in Workman and for the most part that confidence has been rewarded.

 

The simplistic view of the closer role and the fireman is that a team really needs two closer quality arms. It needs one guy that actually closes and a 2nd guy that gets to deal with the putting out fires and innings other than the 9th that the manager determines poses a significant threat.

 

Where you could tell Cora was not all that sold on Brasier in the first place is that if the most threatening hitters were projected to show up in the 9th he would push Barnes to the 9th inning. It is sort of odd to have a closer that under certain conditions you don't allow to close.

 

That is not really on Cora though. DD left him with that mess.

Edited August 8, 2019 by jung

[Bellhorn04]

Yea...if Cora had not used Barnes as a fireman earlier in a particular game he would look over the opponent's projected lineup for innings 7-9 and insert Barnes where he saw the most threatening hitters appearing for the opposing team. There was no mystery to what Cora was doing.

 

Brasier got the 9th UNLESS the opponent's most threatening hitters were projected to come up in the 9th. I think Cora BECAME less inclined to that formula as Workman came on, Brasier disappeared and Hembree broke down. Cora grew to have more confidence in Workman and for the most part that confidence has been rewarded.

 

The simplistic view of the closer role and the fireman is that a team really needs two closer quality arms. It needs one guy that actually closes and a 2nd guy that gets to deal with the putting out fires and innings other than the 9th that the manager determines poses a significant threat.

 

Where you could tell Cora was not all that sold on Brasier in the first place is that if the most threatening hitters were projected to show up in the 9th he would push Barnes to the 9th inning. It is sort of odd to have a closer that under certain conditions you don't allow to close.

 

That is not really on Cora though. DD left him with that mess.

 

Right on all counts, I'd say.

[moonslav59]

Right on all counts, I'd say.

 

Agreed.

[notin]

Yup....and I still don't think closer by committee makes a hill of beans of sense. I will however repeat that bullpens and relief pitchers generally have always been a DD blind spot. For all of DD's "experience" it is no less a blind spot now than it has always been for him, right in the face of bullpens being transitioning to being a much more significant component of an MLB team than they ever were in the past.

 

Fans don’t like it, but closer by committee does make a lot of sense. Unfortunately what Sox fans have seen from it twice is “don’t spend money and just dump anyone in the bullpen,” with the latter half of that “plan” being the most notable. But if the Yankees rotated saves between Chapman, Ottavino, Britton, Holder, Green, and Kahnle, I don’t think the concept would be so readily questioned...

[jacksonianmarch]

Fans don’t like it, but closer by committee does make a lot of sense. Unfortunately what Sox fans have seen from it twice is “don’t spend money and just dump anyone in the bullpen,” with the latter half of that “plan” being the most notable. But if the Yankees rotated saves between Chapman, Ottavino, Britton, Holder, Green, and Kahnle, I don’t think the concept would be so readily questioned...

 

Closer by committee cannot be a mishmash of s*** talents. Closer by committee should be that you have multiple solid talents out there and you're going to pick the matchup based on who is gonna be batting in the 9th

[jung]

I do like the idea of having junkers for starters and flame throwers for relief pitchers. If you have enough flame throwers and can keep them healthy or keep them coming, ya' got something.

 

Problem is that too many hard throwers don't have a good technique nor good physical characteristics for throwing hard and hence both keep them healthy AND keep them coming becomes a problem.

[oldtimer]

Changing the subject a little, I have a hypothetical question that illustrates our current state of affairs.

 

If the Astros could come into the Red Sox and take any players from our roster and displace their own players at the same posiition, who would they take, if aanyone?

 

I suppose that the candidates would be Bogaerts, Devers and Betts. Frankly, I don't see where any of those moves would help them. Certainly no red Sox pitcher would help and the only other players of interest might be Beni and JDM.

 

You could ask the same about any of the top teams and might get one or two takers but not many.

[cp176]

Closer by committee cannot be a mishmash of s*** talents. Closer by committee should be that you have multiple solid talents out there and you're going to pick the matchup based on who is gonna be batting in the 9th

 

pretty much i'd say

pitching be it starter or bullpen is not simply about quantity.

[kenmeister]

Certainly no red Sox pitcher would help and the only other players of interest might be Beni and JDM.

 

Brandon Workman has a 1.95 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 12.3 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched. They'd be crazy not to take him. For instance, Hector Rondon has a 4.14 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.

[notin]

Closer by committee cannot be a mishmash of s*** talents. Closer by committee should be that you have multiple solid talents out there and you're going to pick the matchup based on who is gonna be batting in the 9th

 

Exactly. But when your headline relievers include names like Ryan Brasier and Chad Fox, you’re not assembling a bullpen committee; you’re spending as little as possible and hoping it all works out somehow...

[moonslav59]

Also, if you are going to go with a committee, why not add a few more mediocre arms to the mix at minimal cost?

 

[OH FOY]

Guardians 1 game behind the Twins, with 3 more games head-to-head, this weekend. Wish Sunday nights game on ESPN was this. Giants vs. Phillies. OH BoY! Edited August 9, 2019 by OH FOY!

[notin]

Also, if you are going to go with a committee, why not add a few more mediocre arms to the mix at minimal cost?

 

 

Exactly. Both Dombrowski and Epstein built their committee with mediocre and bad pitchers. High leverage situations still happen, even if they're not in the ninth inning. You need a couple reliable arms out there...

[Kimmi]

Exactly. Both Dombrowski and Epstein built their committee with mediocre and bad pitchers. High leverage situations still happen, even if they're not in the ninth inning. You need a couple reliable arms out there...

 

We have a couple of reliable arms out there in Barnes and Workman.

 

They can't help that they have been misused, due to no fault of Cora.

 

I do agree that Dombrowski failed in not adding more BP depth during the season.

[notin]

We have a couple of reliable arms out there in Barnes and Workman.

 

They can't help that they have been misused, due to no fault of Cora.

 

I do agree that Dombrowski failed in not adding more BP depth during the season.

 

But with the Sox, after Barnes and Workman (who would not have been considered a reliable “go to” any other season), the drop off is fast and steep. Who would you say is the third best arm out there? That Josh Taylor is in the argument only proves my point...

[Bellhorn04]

But with the Sox, after Barnes and Workman (who would not have been considered a reliable “go to” any other season), the drop off is fast and steep. Who would you say is the third best arm out there? That Josh Taylor is in the argument only proves my point...

 

Darwinzon?

 

Walden's numbers are also perfectly acceptable.

[notin]

Darwinzon?

 

Walden's numbers are also perfectly acceptable.

 

Walden is a career minor leaguer who's been having some good stretches, but could also implode at any time and surprise no one in doing so. He's having a good year, but if you're building a bullpen you hope someone like Walden can hold the fifth or sixth spot and not be the third best option.

 

In 2020, do you expect a repeat performance from Walden?

 

Hernandez' career right now is at 15IP. He has a live arm, but major control issues. Hopefully he can be a useful pen arm. I doubt he can handle starting...

[Bellhorn04]

Walden is a career minor leaguer who's been having some good stretches, but could also implode at any time and surprise no one in doing so. He's having a good year, but if you're building a bullpen you hope someone like Walden can hold the fifth or sixth spot and not be the third best option.

 

In 2020, do you expect a repeat performance from Walden?

 

Hernandez' career right now is at 15IP. He has a live arm, but major control issues. Hopefully he can be a useful pen arm. I doubt he can handle starting...

 

I tried.

[notin]

I tried.

 

We all knew this bullpen would be questionable back in December. That Walden has stepped up and is still on the roster is a huge credit to his performance this year. I expected him to be back in Pawtucket by June...

[Carpin]

Changing the subject a little, I have a hypothetical question that illustrates our current state of affairs.

 

If the Astros could come into the Red Sox and take any players from our roster and displace their own players at the same posiition, who would they take, if aanyone?

 

I suppose that the candidates would be Bogaerts, Devers and Betts. Frankly, I don't see where any of those moves would help them. Certainly no red Sox pitcher would help and the only other players of interest might be Beni and JDM.

 

You could ask the same about any of the top teams and might get one or two takers but not many.

 

I agree with you on Betts, but I don't see the Astros picking Devers (bWAR 4.0, OPS+ 133) over Bregman (bWAR 5.3, OPS+ 147) or Bogaerts (bWAR 3.8, OPS+ 141) over Correa (bWAR 2.8, OPS+ 143),

[notin]

I agree with you on Betts, but I don't see the Astros picking Devers (bWAR 4.0, OPS+ 133) over Bregman (bWAR 5.3, OPS+ 147) or Bogaerts (bWAR 3.8, OPS+ 141) over Correa (bWAR 2.8, OPS+ 143),

 

Bregman could one day soon challenge Trout for the title of "Best Player in the Game Today".

[Carpin]

Bregman could one day soon challenge Trout for the title of "Best Player in the Game Today".

 

He's part of that small second group which can challenge Trout for it, along with Bellinger, Betts, Yelich, Arenado and a couple more

[Bellhorn04]

Trout seems to be in a class of his own.