A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[notin]

Well, let's see, 2 guys held out, Kimbrel and Keuchel. And Keuchel has pitched about exactly as expected.

 

Keuchel’s lofty 4.82 FIP might suggest he’s been a little lucky...

[jung]

I was a manager Cash fan, at first. Probably because I thought pretty much anyone was an improvement over Maddon. However, as time goes on, I'm beginning to think that Cash is Maddon 2.0. Quit micromanaging and let the players play.

 

As far as Stat-Masterson goes, he's the best.

 

I have to admit to being a Cash fan myself earlier in his managerial career thinking he was accomplishing the primary role of a Manager, getting the most he could from his assets. But clearly he has gone entirely off the deep end, utterly governed by whatever nonsense is coming out of the Rays front office data information services department and I simply have little continence for that.

[Bellhorn04]

Keuchel’s lofty 4.82 FIP might suggest he’s been a little lucky...

 

Ah yes, the dreaded FIP.

[Noles_1335]

Could this season be a sign that it's time to cut ties with LeVangie..... blame has to come from somewhere as to why our pitchers across the board are so bad!

[Maxbialystock]

Back to a Realistic View of 2019, Part II.

 

Right now I'd have to say the Sox are in trouble simple because their pitching is so awful. DD spent big bucks--$88M, not including Cashner-- for a good to great rotation, and they've been inconsistent at best. Especially Price and Sale and Porcello. He went cheap on the bullpen and is basically getting what he paid for.

 

The Sox ERA is 20th in MLB. Only 8 teams have had more runs scored against them. One year ago the Sox had the 7th best ERA in MLB.

 

It's semi-miraculous the Sox are playing winning baseball--and that's almost entirely because of the non-pitching part of the team--12 angry men, who currently lead MLB in runs scored by a margin of 19 runs.

 

Those 12 angry men have to be wondering what it takes to get this team back on track. Last weekend the Sox took the first three from the Yankees by scoring 19, 10, and 9 runs. In game 4 they scored a very nice 6 runs, only to go down, 9-6. Last night they took out a very good Morton (ERA 2.78) in the 5th, and finished with 5 runs, only to lose 6-5 because Price ran out of gas at somewhere around 80 pitches, after which he gave up 2 solo dingers and the lead (which the Sox took back, but then the bullpen gave up that lead).

 

Did I forget to mention that the Sox starter in game 4 vs. the Yankees was none other than Chris Sale? Our former ace went 5.1 innings and gave up 6 runs. In the 3d and 4th innings both, he walked the lead off batters and then served up gopher balls for two run dingers.

Edited July 31, 2019 by Maxbialystock

[Nick]

Back to a Realistic View of 2019, Part II.

 

Right now I'd have to say the Sox are in trouble simple because their pitching is so awful. DD spent big bucks--$88M, not including Cashner-- for a good to great rotation, and they've been inconsistent at best. Especially Price and Sale and Porcello. He went cheap on the bullpen and is basically getting what he paid for.

 

The Sox ERA is 20th in MLB. Only 8 teams have had more runs scored against them. One year ago the Sox had the 7th best ERA in MLB.

 

It's semi-miraculous the Sox are playing winning baseball--and that's almost entirely because of the non-pitching part of the team--12 angry men, who currently lead MLB in runs scored by a margin of 19 runs.

 

Those 12 angry men have to be wondering what it takes to get this team back on track. Last weekend the Sox took the first three from the Yankees by scoring 19, 10, and 9 runs. In game 4 they scored a very nice 6 runs, only to go down, 9-6. Last night they took out a very good Morton (ERA 2.78) in the 5th, and finished with 5 runs, only to lose 6-5 because Price ran out of gas at somewhere around 80 pitches, after which he gave up 2 solo dingers and the lead (which the Sox took back, but then the bullpen gave up that lead).

 

Did I forget to mention that the Sox starter in game 4 vs. the Yankees was none other than Chris Sale? Our former ace went 5.1 innings and gave up 6 runs. In the 3d and 4th innings both, he walked the lead off batters and then served up gopher balls for two run dingers.

 

So, my question is why should we waste our precious young talent to get a mediocre talent in return for the team that will be in a one game playoff situation at best?

[vegasbob]

Could this season be a sign that it's time to cut ties with LeVangie..... blame has to come from somewhere as to why our pitchers across the board are so bad!

 

If you ditch Dana, what are you really losing ? A bullpen catcher ??

[vegasbob]

So, my question is why should we waste our precious young talent to get a mediocre talent in return for the team that will be in a one game playoff situation at best?

 

I think the FO agreed with you, Nick, and likely ownership as well. Let the guys they are paying either come around or go in the tank. Maybe it's a motivator next year to fall down but it's become a Sox tradition over the last decade.

[moonslav59]

we did offer him the QO though? it was close to $20MM

 

We knew he'd say "No," and we'd have not signed Eovaldi, if he said "Yes."

[Slasher9]

We knew he'd say "No," and we'd have not signed Eovaldi, if he said "Yes."

 

agreed on both.

[moonslav59]

I'm surprised we didn't make a minor deal for a decent RP'er.

 

I almost feel like we should have been sellers, rather than do nothing.

 

[Slasher9]

I'm surprised we didn't make a minor deal for a decent RP'er.

 

I almost feel like we should have been sellers, rather than do nothing.

 

 

it would have been interesting to see what we could have moved if we were sellers.

did you watch DD's interview/presser during the NESN pregame last night?

[moonslav59]

it would have been interesting to see what we could have moved if we were sellers.

did you watch DD's interview/presser during the NESN pregame last night?

 

No, I missed it.

[Maxbialystock]

No, I missed it.

 

Apparently, he said very little new because he has made it clear all along that he and his boss have shelled out a lot of money for players good enough to win 108 games, 11 of 14 postseason games, and the WS just one year ago. They think, and I wholeheartedly agree with them, that it's up to the players to perform.

 

The lineup players--the guys I call the 12 angry men--are doing just fine and leading MLB in runs scored.

 

The bullpen ain't that great, but they ain't getting paid much.

 

So, clearly and irrefutably, management, including the owner, is singling out the rotation, which is paid a king's ransom and is vastly under performing this year. And I think they are right to do so.

[moonslav59]

Apparently, he said very little new because he has made it clear all along that he and his boss have shelled out a lot of money for players good enough to win 108 games, 11 of 14 postseason games, and the WS just one year ago. They think, and I wholeheartedly agree with them, that it's up to the players to perform.

 

The lineup players--the guys I call the 12 angry men--are doing just fine and leading MLB in runs scored.

 

The bullpen ain't that great, but they ain't getting paid much.

 

So, clearly and irrefutably, management, including the owner, is singling out the rotation, which is paid a king's ransom and is vastly under performing this year. And I think they are right to do so.

 

We still could have traded far away prospects for a decent RP'er and not strayed from this philosophy.

[OH FOY]

That is a big stat from last year, we were 46-46 scoring 5 runs or less #1 in MLB, to 13-42 #25 in baseball.

Only Detroit, KC, Baltimore, Seattle, and Toronto worse.

Big turn around.

[moonslav59]

That is a big stat from last year, we were 46-46 scoring 5 runs or less #1 in MLB, to 13-42 #25 in baseball.

Only Detroit, KC, Baltimore, Seattle, and Toronto worse.

Big turn around.

 

More specifically, we are 10-14 when scoring 4-5 runs. We've also lost 7 games when scoring 7 or more runs (5 when scoring 8 or more).

 

Last year, we were were 33-9 in games where we scored 4-5 runs, and we only lost 2 games when scoring 7 or more runs- both at 7 runs.

 

The 4-5 runs scored games have killed us.

 

Our SP'ers often let up 5 runs by themselves.

 

Sale: 6 times allowing 5+ runs, including 4 of his last 6 GS'd (5 times with 4 runs allowed)

 

Price: 2 times plus 4 with 4 runs allowed (3 of last 4 starts with 4 or more runs allowedZ)

 

Porcello: 9 times with 3 at 4 runs allowed ( 6 of last 7 at 4 or more).

 

15 times, Porcello and Sale have left the game after allowing 5 or more runs. That's over a third of their starts. 23 times allowing 4 or more. That's over half.

[moonslav59]

2020 Tax Salary Budget:

$Millions

31.0 Price

25.6 Sale

22.0 JD (assuming option)

20.0 Bogey

17.0 Eovaldi

13.8 Pedey

4.5 Vaz

Total:$134M (7 players)

 

Arbs: (est)

27 Betts (3rd of 3 arbs)

10 JBJ (4 of 4)

9 ERod (3 of 4)

4 Beni (1 of 3)

3 Workman (3 of 3)

3 Barnes (2 of 3)

2 Hembree (2 of 3)

1 Wright (3 of 3)

1 Hernandez (1 of 3)

Total $60M (9 players)

 

Non arbs (24 players on 40 man roster)

Total: $16M

 

40 man roster with no FA signings: $210M +$15M player benefits= $225M

 

Bye-bye:

Porcello, Cashner, Moreland & Pearce

Holt (maybe back) & Leon (unless back for near min)

 

To get under the $208M limit, we'd have to not only avoid signing any FAs, we'd have to trade about $17M in salary. That would likely be JBJ ($10M) and maybe Eovaldi (by paying about 1/3 his salary) or getting Pedey to retire and forgo his salary (fat chance).

 

[Kimmi]

Apparently, he said very little new because he has made it clear all along that he and his boss have shelled out a lot of money for players good enough to win 108 games, 11 of 14 postseason games, and the WS just one year ago. They think, and I wholeheartedly agree with them, that it's up to the players to perform.

 

The lineup players--the guys I call the 12 angry men--are doing just fine and leading MLB in runs scored.

 

The bullpen ain't that great, but they ain't getting paid much.

 

So, clearly and irrefutably, management, including the owner, is singling out the rotation, which is paid a king's ransom and is vastly under performing this year. And I think they are right to do so.

 

I am glad that Dombrowski didn't go all out to add another piece, which IMO, isn't really needed. I'm a little surprised that he didn't add some bullpen depth, but who knows what other teams were asking.

 

Dombrowski is correct in saying that the team that we have should be good enough. It's up to the guys to decide how they're going to respond to Dombrowski's idleness.

[illinoisredsox]

2020 Tax Salary Budget:

$Millions

31.0 Price

25.6 Sale

22.0 JD (assuming option)

20.0 Bogey

17.0 Eovaldi

13.8 Pedey

4.5 Vaz

Total:$134M (7 players)

 

Arbs: (est)

27 Betts (3rd of 3 arbs)

10 JBJ (4 of 4)

9 ERod (3 of 4)

4 Beni (1 of 3)

3 Workman (3 of 3)

3 Barnes (2 of 3)

2 Hembree (2 of 3)

1 Wright (3 of 3)

1 Hernandez (1 of 3)

Total $60M (9 players)

 

Non arbs (24 players on 40 man roster)

Total: $16M

 

40 man roster with no FA signings: $210M +$15M player benefits= $225M

 

Bye-bye:

Porcello, Cashner, Moreland & Pearce

Holt (maybe back) & Leon (unless back for near min)

 

To get under the $208M limit, we'd have to not only avoid signing any FAs, we'd have to trade about $17M in salary. That would likely be JBJ ($10M) and maybe Eovaldi (by paying about 1/3 his salary) or getting Pedey to retire and forgo his salary (fat chance).

 

 

I don't see JBJ back. They can find someone to backfill at less cost. It wont save the entire $10M, but maybe half of it. Wright will be released, not that he saves that much. Leon will be gone as well.

 

I think somebody may get a bit of a bargain with Porcello but it wont be the Sox. This is by far the worst year he's ever had; someone will take a flyer on him for a year at 1/3 of what he's making now. The Sox can't afford that chance.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Sale contract was a 5 yr $145 mil deal. I thought, for lux tax purposes this year, that his option is the contract for this year and $29 mil is on the book as an AAV through the next 5 seasons.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sale contract was a 5 yr $145 mil deal. I thought, for lux tax purposes this year, that his option is the contract for this year and $29 mil is on the book as an AAV through the next 5 seasons.

 

You're right except the AAV is reduced to $25.6 million because of deferred money. This type of adjustment must have been something new in the last CBA.

[kenmeister]

I don't see JBJ back. They can find someone to backfill at less cost. It wont save the entire $10M, but maybe half of it. Wright will be released, not that he saves that much. Leon will be gone as well.

 

I think somebody may get a bit of a bargain with Porcello but it wont be the Sox. This is by far the worst year he's ever had; someone will take a flyer on him for a year at 1/3 of what he's making now. The Sox can't afford that chance.

 

Yeah I'm confused; I thought arbitration eligible meant the team, if they want, can cut the player. I'd be surprised if they keep JBJ next year.

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah I'm confused; I thought arbitration eligible meant the team, if they want, can cut the player.

 

They can, it's called non-tendering.

[moonslav59]

Offer arb and trade him.

[notin]

Offer arb and trade him.

 

Tried that last year and couldn’t move him.

 

The Sox might have to cut bait with Bradley this off-season. Personally I think the chances of non-tendering Bradley and using Castillo (of whom Dombrowski was not a fan at his tryout) are slim. But it might be the right move...

[moonslav59]

Tried that last year and couldn’t move him.

 

The Sox might have to cut bait with Bradley this off-season. Personally I think the chances of non-tendering Bradley and using Castillo (of whom Dombrowski was not a fan at his tryout) are slim. But it might be the right move...

My guess is that we could have moved JBJ last winter, but DD did not like the offers.

[TylerD]

Good inning for Cashner.

[Nick]

The Sale contract was a 5 yr $145 mil deal. I thought, for lux tax purposes this year, that his option is the contract for this year and $29 mil is on the book as an AAV through the next 5 seasons.

 

I'm not sure what you're saying but for 2019 we simply picked up his option from previous contract for $15M. His new deal kicks in next year but it's partially deferred thus lower AAV for 2020 and thereafter.

 

Never mind, I think that's exactly what you are saying.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't think the deferred money counts any differently. I thought (I could be wrong) it is total compensation divided by years of control.