The Pen

[OH FOY]

See how Dubon does, he was just called up by the Brewers.

https://www.apnews.com/f68c6311f2774255bd72457c7e6e1bac

[FredLynn]

What he says is simply an indication of what he thinks his arm can handle. Its not more than that. But its not less than that EITHER!

 

A) I put what I considered the be the key line in my post which you quoted above.

I have repeatedly said in this thread that Eovoldi to the pen...Not a problem that I can see particularly since he has to do something to get his arm back in shape. Eovoldi to Closer....a problem and the reasons should be obvious.

 

You want to dance around that...be my guest.

 

The problem with your reasoning is that DD isn't going to sign a quality closer. And the dregs we now have in the pen are incapable of doing the job. Its a bit of desperation but I think its worth a try. There is simply no reasonable alternative.

[jung]

The problem with your reasoning is that DD isn't going to sign a quality closer. And the dregs we now have in the pen are incapable of doing the job. Its a bit of desperation but I think its worth a try. There is simply no reasonable alternative.

 

So somebody who has closed somewhere in MLB, someone who has at least proven that he can warm up, throw good enough to even be nominally effective in the 9th inning, cool down and do it all over again the next day is not a more reasonable alternative to a guy we just signed for $17M who we know has a cranky wing that has not proven a darned thing in the 9th inning as a Closer?

 

Effectively that argument is "we have reached into the hat trying to pull out a rabbit all year and come up snake eyes. The only guy we have left down there in the bottom of the hat is Nate.....so what the heck. There is still a spot up on the wall we can throw Nate against."

 

That is effectively the argument.

[moonslav59]

The problem with your reasoning is that DD isn't going to sign a quality closer. And the dregs we now have in the pen are incapable of doing the job. Its a bit of desperation but I think its worth a try. There is simply no reasonable alternative.

 

Trading for a closer is not a reasonable alternative?

 

Striking gold like we did with the 2018 Eovaldi is not a possibility?

 

We even had two decent RP'ers in our own system we never knew we had: Beeks and Buttrey. Is there no chance we have one like them, now?

 

I realize the odds are long on the last point, and getting lucky by trade is not easy, but the one thing DD has been very good at is finding gems in mid season trades. He hasn't really had a Gagne moment.

 

I'm trying to stay optimistic, but it isn't easy. The next 3 weeks will be telling.

[dgalehouse]

Eovaldi is the best option to close . Trade for a decent starting pitcher and take our chances . That's all you can do at this point . Becoming a seller is out of the question. The defending champs , right in the middle of the wild card hunt do not give up . No chance of that . Edited July 11, 2019 by dgalehouse

[FredLynn]

So somebody who has closed somewhere in MLB, someone who has at least proven that he can warm up, throw good enough to even be nominally effective in the 9th inning, cool down and do it all over again the next day is not a more reasonable alternative to a guy we just signed for $17M who we know has a cranky wing that has not proven a darned thing in the 9th inning as a Closer?

 

Effectively that argument is "we have reached into the hat trying to pull out a rabbit all year and come up snake eyes. The only guy we have left down there in the bottom of the hat is Nate.....so what the heck. There is still a spot up on the wall we can throw Nate against."

 

That is effectively the argument.

 

Who exactly did you have in mind? Names.......and don't even mention expensive players because thats not going to happen.

[FredLynn]

Trading for a closer is not a reasonable alternative?

 

Striking gold like we did with the 2018 Eovaldi is not a possibility?

 

We even had two decent RP'ers in our own system we never knew we had: Beeks and Buttrey. Is there no chance we have one like them, now?

 

I realize the odds are long on the last point, and getting lucky by trade is not easy, but the one thing DD has been very good at is finding gems in mid season trades. He hasn't really had a Gagne moment.

 

I'm trying to stay optimistic, but it isn't easy. The next 3 weeks will be telling.

 

First, this is not 2018. Nowhere near it. We both agree that unless Sale, ERod, and Porcello begin to do their jobs obtaining a closer is going to be a waste of money and resources. Sure, if we can steal a proven effective closer from some sap of a GM lets go for it-but don't trade away a single valuable prospect to get him because without the current guys stepping up its a waste. As I asked Jung-who did you have in mind? And what would it cost us?

[notin]

Trading for a closer is not a reasonable alternative?

 

Striking gold like we did with the 2018 Eovaldi is not a possibility?

 

We even had two decent RP'ers in our own system we never knew we had: Beeks and Buttrey. Is there no chance we have one like them?

 

Three if you count Roenis Elias...

[moonslav59]

Updated Game by Game Pen vs Starter Numbers:

 

Game 83: L 17-13 NYY: Porcello 6/0.1- Pen 11/8.2 (SP loss and -2/ Pen -2)

Game 84: L 12-8 NYY: ERod 2/5.1- Pen 9/3.2 (RP loss and +2 SP/ Pen-2)

Game 85: W 10-6 TOR: Price 2/6.0- Pen 4/3 (SP win and +2/ Pen -2)

Game 86: L 6-3 TOR: Sale 5/5.2- Pen 1/2.1 (SP loss and -2/ Pen 0)

Game 87: W 8-7 TOR: Velaz 3/2.1- Pen 4/6.2 (Pen win and -2/ SP -1)

Game 88: W 9-6 DET: ERod 1/5.0- Pen 3/4 (SP win and +2/ Pen -2)

Game 89: W 10-6 DET: Porce 6/5.2- Pen 0/3.1 (RP win and +2/SP -2)

Game 90: W 6-3 DET: Price 1/5.0- Pen 2/4 (SP win and +2/Pen 0)

 

By Wins and Losses Responsibility Game by Game (who did better in wins or worse in losses):

Starters 19-24 (-5)

Relievers 30-17 (+13)

 

Scoring System (+2, +1, 0, -1, -2)

SP +21

RP +38

[moonslav59]

First, this is not 2018. Nowhere near it. We both agree that unless Sale, ERod, and Porcello begin to do their jobs obtaining a closer is going to be a waste of money and resources. Sure, if we can steal a proven effective closer from some sap of a GM lets go for it-but don't trade away a single valuable prospect to get him because without the current guys stepping up its a waste. As I asked Jung-who did you have in mind? And what would it cost us?

 

Yes, I agree, we need our big 4 starters to do well, or we have little chance of making a strong run at a ring this year.

 

I'm not an expert on other teams' talent, but there are probably 28 teams with a better closer than us, and half will be sellers.

 

We don't need a great closer. If we can improve our save% from 50% to 75% we'd be much better off. Plus, getting a closer would move our best RP'ers down a notch and remove the worst from the roster. If we can add Eovaldi to the mix in an Andrew Miller type role, we'd move the others down another notch and rop another one off the 25 man roster. We may even be able to go with a 7 man pen for a while.

 

Chances are, we don't get a closer. We seemed locked in on the Eovaldi as closer idea and will probably find a 5th starter and move Velazquez or Johnson into the long relief role.

[FredLynn]

Yes, I agree, we need our big 4 starters to do well, or we have little chance of making a strong run at a ring this year.

 

I'm not an expert on other teams' talent, but there are probably 28 teams with a better closer than us, and half will be sellers.

 

We don't need a great closer. If we can improve our save% from 50% to 75% we'd be much better off. Plus, getting a closer would move our best RP'ers down a notch and remove the worst from the roster. If we can add Eovaldi to the mix in an Andrew Miller type role, we'd move the others down another notch and rop another one off the 25 man roster. We may even be able to go with a 7 man pen for a while.

 

Chances are, we don't get a closer. We seemed locked in on the Eovaldi as closer idea and will probably find a 5th starter and move Velazquez or Johnson into the long relief role.

 

I agree. I think we will pick up a dumpster bin #5 SP. JH just isn't going to spend a lot of money or trade away more prospects. He sees what we all see: a team that has the talent to make the playoffs if everyone does their job. Why waste money and prospects on a bunch of guys who are underperforming? They made this cake; let them eat it.

[moonslav59]

Our pen has blown way too many saves (games), and although 1 BS was turned into a win later and 2 BS were in the same game, we've still had about 6-8 too many games blown by the pen.

 

That being said, here's a look at JUST the good to great 53 games by our pen:

 

0 ERs in 2+ IP, 1 ER in 3+ IP, 2 ER in 5+ IP, 3 ER in 7+IP

 

31 Games Highlighted in Red= 0 ER in 3+ IP, 1 ER in 4+ IP, 2 ER in 6+ IP or 3 ER in 8+ IP

 

Game# Result SP-Pen

2. W 7-6 Eovaldi 6/5- Pen 0/4

3. L 6-5 ERod 5/4.1- Pen 0/3.2

4. L 10-8 Porcello 4/2.2- Pen 1/5.1

6. L 1-0 Sale 1/6- Pen 0/2

7. W 6-3 Eovaldi 3/5- Pen 0/4

8. L 7-3 ERod 6/3.2- Pen 1/4.1

10. W 5-4 Price 4/6- Pen 1/3

11. W 1-0 Velaz 0/3- Pen 0/6

12. L 7-5 Sale 5/4- Pen 2/5

13. W 7-6 Eovaldi 5/5- Pen 1/4

16. W 4-0 Price 0/7- Pen 0/2

20. W 6-4 ERod 3/5.1- Pen 0/3.2

22. W 4-3 Price 2/5- Pen 1/6

24. L 4-2 Velaz 3/3.1- Pen 1/5.9

26. W 7-2 Porcello 3/6- Pen 0/3

27. L 2-1 Price 2/6- Pen 0/3

29. W 9-4 ERod 4/4.2- Pen 0/4.1

31. W 7-3 Velaz 1/2- Pen 2/7

33. W 6-1 Sale 0/6- Pen 1/3

34. W 15-2 ERod 1/6- Pen 1/3

35. W 9-2 Porcello 2/6- Pen 0/3

36. L 4-1 Smith 4/3.1- Pen 0/4.2

37. W 8-5 Velaz 2/3- Pen 3/7

38. W 2-1 Sale 1/8- Pen 0/4

40. W 9-5 Porcello 4/6.2- Pen 1/2.2

41. W 11-2 Velz 2/5- Pen 0/4

43. W 6-5 ERod 5/6- Pen 0/4

44. L 3-1 Porcello 2/7 - Pen 0/2

45. L 7-3 Velaz 5/0.1 -Pen 2/8.2

46. W 4-3 Sale 3/5.1- Pen 0/3.2

47. W 12-2 Price 0/5 (2 unER)- Pen 0/4

51. L 4-3 Sale 2/6- Pen 0/2

53. W 4-1 ERod 1/6- Pen 0/3

54. W 12-5 Porcello 3/6.2 2 unER- Pen 0/2.1

57. L 4-1 Sale 4/6- Pen 0/2

58. L 5-3 Porcello 5/4.2- Pen 0/3.1

60: W8-3 KCR: ERod 2/5.2 2/ RP 1/3.1 1

62: W 7-5 KCR: Weber 2/1.1- Pen: 3/7.2

63: L 5-1 TBR: Porcello 4/6 IP- Pen 1/3.0

65: W 5-1 TBR: Price 1/6.0 IP-Pen 0/3.0

66: L 6-1 TBR: ERod 4/5.2- Pen 2/4.1

69: W 4-3 TEX: Porcello 2/6.2-Pen 0/2.1

70: W 7-6 TEX: Price 6/1.1- Pen 0/7.9

72: W 7-2 BAL: Sale 2/6.0- Pen 0/2.0

73: W 8-6 BAL: Johnson 1/3.0 IP- Pen 3/7.0

74: W 2-0 MN: Porcell 0/7- Pen 0/2.0

75: L 4-3 MN (17 inn): Price 1/5.0- Pen 3/11.1

76: W 9-4 MN: ERod 4/7- Pen 0/2.0

77. W 7-5 TOR: Sale 3/5.0- (1 unER)/ Pen 1/5.0

79: L 6-1 TOR: Porcello 5/6.0- Pen 1/3.0

80: W6-5 CWS: ERod 5/6.0- Pen 0/3.0

81: W6-3 CWS: Price 2/6.0- Pen 0/3.0

91: W 8-1 LAD: ERod 1/7.0- Pen 0/2.0

 

Edited July 13, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

20 Exceptional Pen Games:

 

0 ER in 3.2+ IP, 1 ER in 5+ IP, 2 ER in 7+ IP or 3 ER in 9+ IP

 

Game# Result SP-Pen

2. W 7-6 Eovaldi 6/5- Pen 0/4

3. L 6-5 ERod 5/4.1- Pen 0/3.2

4. L 10-8 Porcello 4/2.2- Pen 1/5.1

7. W 6-3 Eovaldi 3/5- Pen 0/4

11. W 1-0 Velaz 0/3- Pen 0/6

20. W 6-4 ERod 3/5.1- Pen 0/3.2

22. W 4-3 Price 2/5- Pen 1/6

24. L 4-2 Velaz 3/3.1- Pen 1/5.9

29. W 9-4 ERod 4/4.2- Pen 0/4.1

31. W 7-3 Velaz 1/2- Pen 2/7

36. L 4-1 Smith 4/3.1- Pen 0/4.2

38. W 2-1 Sale 1/8- Pen 0/4

41. W 11-2 Velz 2/5- Pen 0/4

43. W 6-5 ERod 5/6- Pen 0/4

45. L 7-3 Velaz 5/0.1 -Pen 2/8.2

46. W 4-3 Sale 3/5.1- Pen 0/3.2

47. W 12-2 Price 0/5 (2 unER)- Pen 0/4

70: W 7-6 TEX: Price 6/1.1- Pen 0/7.9

75: L 4-3 MN (17 inn): Price 1/5.0- Pen 3/11.1

77. W 7-5 TOR: Sale 3/5.0- (1 unER)/ Pen 1/5.0

[vegasbob]

Trading for a closer is not a reasonable alternative?

 

Striking gold like we did with the 2018 Eovaldi is not a possibility?

 

We even had two decent RP'ers in our own system we never knew we had: Beeks and Buttrey. Is there no chance we have one like them, now?

 

I realize the odds are long on the last point, and getting lucky by trade is not easy, but the one thing DD has been very good at is finding gems in mid season trades. He hasn't really had a Gagne moment.

 

I'm trying to stay optimistic, but it isn't easy. The next 3 weeks will be telling.

 

This is the key to the season. By July 31, they are either moving up or heading south. Playing teams ahead in the standings and trying to make up April lost ground.

[devildavid]

Erod's game against the Dodgers just demonstrated the best solution to the bullpen problem.

[Slasher9]

Erod's game against the Dodgers just demonstrated the best solution to the bullpen problem.

 

Yup. Although I was a bit nervous in the top of the first when it only took 5 pitches to get the first 2 outs of the inning but then took another 17 or so to get the 3rd out. Thankfully we got the first 2 out Erod the rest of the way.

[Kimmi]

Erod's game against the Dodgers just demonstrated the best solution to the bullpen problem.

 

Bingo.

[Kimmi]

Christopher Smith‏Verified account @SmittyOnMLB 33m33 minutes ago

 

Red Sox's Darwinzon Hernandez has pitched well out of the bullpen for Pawtucket. 3 outings, 3 1/3 innings, 0 hits, 0 runs, 0 walks, 5 Ks.

 

Red Sox's Tanner Houck promoted to Pawtucket. He'll pitch out of the bullpen in the short-term.

[dgalehouse]

The bullpen was not properly addressed in the off season . It figured to be a problem , and it has been a problem. No amount of spin or excuses changes that . The idea that they have been greatly overworked is just not true . Their number of innings pitched are pretty much in line with the other top relievers in MLB . No doubt the starters have disappointed, but that does not excuse the bullpen. The bullpen has hurt the team . Hopefully , Eovaldi can be a difference maker .

[moonslav59]

The bullpen was not properly addressed in the off season . It figured to be a problem , and it has been a problem. No amount of spin or excuses changes that . The idea that they have been greatly overworked is just not true . Their number of innings pitched are pretty much in line with the other top relievers in MLB . No doubt the starters have disappointed, but that does not excuse the bullpen. The bullpen has hurt the team . Hopefully , Eovaldi can be a difference maker .

 

The pen has sucked. It is not spin to say the rotation has sucked, too.

 

The pen actually did better than the rotation for the first 2-3 months and overall has helped us win more games than the starters have and lose less games than the starters have.

 

The fact is, our pen and rotation have both sucked.

 

Yes, the pen is now just 7th in most IP'd in the AL, so that cannot be used as an excuse, but coming in after your starter has let up 5 runs (5 times each by Sale, Porcello and ERod) does not make it easy on them.

 

We pretty much all agree, we need a RP'er. Whether Eovaldi proves to be enough is open for debate, but I, for one, hope we trade for a decent closer ASAP and let Eovaldi be gravy or not.

 

 

 

[dgalehouse]

The pen has sucked. It is not spin to say the rotation has sucked, too.

 

The pen actually did better than the rotation for the first 2-3 months and overall has helped us win more games than the starters have and lose less games than the starters have.

 

The fact is, our pen and rotation have both sucked.

 

Yes, the pen is now just 7th in most IP'd in the AL, so that cannot be used as an excuse, but coming in after your starter has let up 5 runs (5 times each by Sale, Porcello and ERod) does not make it easy on them.

 

We pretty much all agree, we need a RP'er. Whether Eovaldi proves to be enough is open for debate, but I, for one, hope we trade for a decent closer ASAP and let Eovaldi be gravy or not.

 

 

 

. Do you think the closer situation should have been addressed during the off season ? Instead of when we are 10 games behind the Yankees ? And before it would cost prospects?

[Kimmi]

The bullpen was not properly addressed in the off season . It figured to be a problem , and it has been a problem. No amount of spin or excuses changes that . The idea that they have been greatly overworked is just not true . Their number of innings pitched are pretty much in line with the other top relievers in MLB . No doubt the starters have disappointed, but that does not excuse the bullpen. The bullpen has hurt the team . Hopefully , Eovaldi can be a difference maker .

 

I am not excusing the bullpen, nor am I saying that the bullpen hasn't been bad recently. What I am saying is that I think the pen is worse than it would have been if the starters had done their job all season long. The pen has been asked to do more than what should be expected of them, which doesn't allow them to do their job as well as they could.

 

I don't have any problem with the way Dombrowski addressed the pen this offseason. It is currently not working. I don't think the solution is that you need an expensive or 'proven' closer. The first part of the solution is to have the starters get deeper into games. The second part of the solution is to keep throwing pieces out there until you find the ones that work.

[Kimmi]

Red Sox Stats‏ @redsoxstats 4h4 hours ago

 

Three games out of the break and the Sox bullpen already desperately needs an off day and there isn't one coming for 14 more days. Porcello may have to throw 120 pitches tomorrow no matter, and wouldn't be surprised to see a roster move. This stinks.

[moonslav59]

. Do you think the closer situation should have been addressed during the off season ? Instead of when we are 10 games behind the Yankees ? And before it would cost prospects?

 

In hindsight, yes. I wasn't so sure last winter/spring. With budget concerns, I felt we could spend the remaining $3M on a pro-rated, deadline deal and done better.

 

I do think we should have signed a RP'er, instead of Pearce, but with a limited budget and Moreland as fragile as Pedey, and Chavis a long shot, I can understand the decision.

 

The problem was the budget limit, and the cheaper closer option and half the expensive ones have flopped or got hurt (from Cody Allen to David Robertson).

[notin]

 

I don't have any problem with the way Dombrowski addressed the pen this offseason. It is currently not working. I don't think the solution is that you need an expensive or 'proven' closer. The first part of the solution is to have the starters get deeper into games. The second part of the solution is to keep throwing pieces out there until you find the ones that work.

 

A “proven closer” doesn’t fix the bullpen. But letting two late inning, high leverage arms go and replacing them only with Colten Brewer and wishful thinking was a bad idea.

 

I do wonder if there was some MASSIVE miscommunication here. Dombrowski built a team expecting it to be carried by the rotation, with the bullpen merely wrapping up the ends of games.. But Cora is managing the team in a way that emphasizes resting the rotation and relying more heavily on the bullpen. Not exactly coinciding plans here...

[OH FOY]

[Bellhorn04]

I do wonder if there was some MASSIVE miscommunication here. Dombrowski built a team expecting it to be carried by the rotation, with the bullpen merely wrapping up the ends of games.. But Cora is managing the team in a way that emphasizes resting the rotation and relying more heavily on the bullpen. Not exactly coinciding plans here...

 

On that point, you can probably fault Dombrowski for over-relying on this rotation to eat innings, with Sale's array of issues, Eovaldi's injury record, Price's age, and a lack of depth options.

[dgalehouse]

I am not excusing the bullpen, nor am I saying that the bullpen hasn't been bad recently. What I am saying is that I think the pen is worse than it would have been if the starters had done their job all season long. The pen has been asked to do more than what should be expected of them, which doesn't allow them to do their job as well as they could.

 

I don't have any problem with the way Dombrowski addressed the pen this offseason. It is currently not working. I don't think the solution is that you need an expensive or 'proven' closer. The first part of the solution is to have the starters get deeper into games. The second part of the solution is to keep throwing pieces out there until you find the ones that work.

 

Kimmi , I think an impartial observer would look at our off season like this : To D.D. " You lost your closer , (and 42 saves ) who has been one of your top performers for the last three years . You also lost your best ( albeit sometimes erratic) power arm in the pen . You basically did nothing to compensate for these losses . You took the position that the remaining guys could handle things . That was a real leap of faith . And it has not worked out very well . The performance of your starters has been an unexpected disappointment . The performance of your bullpen has been predictable. "

[Bellhorn04]

Kimmi , I think an impartial observer would look at our off season like this : To D.D. " You lost your closer , (and 42 saves ) who has been one of your top performers for the last three years . You also lost your best ( albeit sometimes erratic) power arm in the pen . You basically did nothing to compensate for these losses . You took the position that the remaining guys could handle things . That was a real leap of faith . And it has not worked out very well . The performance of your starters has been an unexpected disappointment . The performance of your bullpen has been predictable. "

 

If you don't mind me throwing around some really rough numbers here...

 

I would say that the 10 game difference between us and the Yanks is about 50% on the rotation and 50% on the pen.

 

Dombrowski probably isn't surprised we're trailing the Yanks, but he probably figured we'd be within a few games of them at this point, and that he could add at the deadline.

[dgalehouse]

If you don't mind me throwing around some really rough numbers here...

 

I would say that the 10 game difference between us and the Yanks is about 50% on the rotation and 50% on the pen.

 

Dombrowski probably isn't surprised we're trailing the Yanks, but he probably figured we'd be within a few games of them at this point, and that he could add at the deadline.

Bell , That could be . I don't know. I do think that when you are the defending champs , when you have the big payroll, you really should have all your ducks in a row , so to speak . The bullpen looked liked a glaring weakness from day one.