The Pen

[dgalehouse]

The problem with the logic of waiting until the deadline, of course, is that it's 2/3 into the season and we're in the same division as the Yankees and it does make a big difference now to win the division.

 

Absolutely . You don't want to be making panic deals if you find yourself trailing the Yankees by seven games in July . I'm trying to understand all of this , but it sure seems like an odd way for a championship team to be doing business .

[Kimmi]

If he waits until July 31st, the cost should be about 1/3 or $2M for a 6 million dollar man. He could get two and still be under the max line.

 

It makes sense to go into the season with what we have, and take the first couple of months to assess what our real needs will be. It may turn out that our BP ends up being a strength, and we're in dire need of a 2B.

 

If we really do have so little wiggle room, I'd rather make sure we use it to fill our true holes, not our imagined holes, which may or may not be the same thing.

[Kimmi]

The problem with the logic of waiting until the deadline, of course, is that it's 2/3 into the season and we're in the same division as the Yankees and it does make a big difference now to win the division.

 

I am pretty sure that Henry and Dombrowski will not let the season get out of hand.

 

They do not have to wait until the deadline to acquire a player of need.

[Kimmi]

Absolutely . You don't want to be making panic deals if you find yourself trailing the Yankees by seven games in July . I'm trying to understand all of this , but it sure seems like an odd way for a championship team to be doing business .

 

You don't want to make panic moves in the offseason to fill a hole that might not even exist.

[moonslav59]

It makes sense to go into the season with what we have, and take the first couple of months to assess what our real needs will be. It may turn out that our BP ends up being a strength, and we're in dire need of a 2B.

 

If we really do have so little wiggle room, I'd rather make sure we use it to fill our true holes, not our imagined holes, which may or may not be the same thing.

 

I agree, but IMO, we have a need for at least one solid pen arm. I'm fine with waiting to see if someone steps it up, but making a deal now or in the summer would not be a panic move, unless we had t o part with someone really important or spend foolishly to do so.

[sk7326]

I agree, but IMO, we have a need for at least one solid pen arm. I'm fine with waiting to see if someone steps it up, but making a deal now or in the summer would not be a panic move, unless we had t o part with someone really important or spend foolishly to do so.

 

It makes sense to just wait during the season to see where the bullpen is. Right now it looks like it could be bad - or it could be fine. I have no issue riding it out and seeing what happens. They will probably add one more arm as the relief pitcher pool filter shakes things out.

[moonslav59]

It makes sense to just wait during the season to see where the bullpen is. Right now it looks like it could be bad - or it could be fine. I have no issue riding it out and seeing what happens. They will probably add one more arm as the relief pitcher pool filter shakes things out.

 

Certainly, if we start off slow due to poor pen performance, and we end up losing the division by a game or two, there can be a strong argument made that it was a mistake waiting to make a move to strengthen the move mid season, but I think DD did a great job making us a super strong team. Fixing the pen is probably one of the easiest mid season fixes, although several times those deals don't work out too well.

 

I know avoiding the play-in game is a worthy goal, and it is risky putting serious pen issues on the back burner by "waiting it out," but we've already done a lot to build this team to the top, I'm not going complain about one weak area on paper in February.

 

[sk7326]

Certainly, if we start off slow due to poor pen performance, and we end up losing the division by a game or two, there can be a strong argument made that it was a mistake waiting to make a move to strengthen the move mid season, but I think DD did a great job making us a super strong team. Fixing the pen is probably one of the easiest mid season fixes, although several times those deals don't work out too well.

 

I know avoiding the play-in game is a worthy goal, and it is risky putting serious pen issues on the back burner by "waiting it out," but we've already done a lot to build this team to the top, I'm not going complain about one weak area on paper in February.

 

 

I think the range of outcomes for ANY bullpen is so high that even if we spent more - things would not feel solved. The Sox moves to that end so far - find a bunch of guys with some swing and miss in their arsenal and see what Cora and the staff can do - make sense to me.

[moonslav59]

I think the range of outcomes for ANY bullpen is so high that even if we spent more - things would not feel solved. The Sox moves to that end so far - find a bunch of guys with some swing and miss in their arsenal and see what Cora and the staff can do - make sense to me.

 

I agree 100%.

 

I'm think of the "I told you so" aspect of the issue. If we made some move to make our pen better, and it didn't work, then at least we could say we tried, and the naysayers' arguments would be hard to make.

 

I love our team, as is. We have a little budget wiggle room for the mid season.

 

I'm ready for the season to begin.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree 100%.

 

I'm think of the "I told you so" aspect of the issue. If we made some move to make our pen better, and it didn't work, then at least we could say we tried, and the naysayers' arguments would be hard to make.

 

I love our team, as is. We have a little budget wiggle room for the mid season.

 

I'm ready for the season to begin.

 

I am finding this very, very funny. The pen was a concern at the outset. Then it was Eovaldi can close if need be. No, he is in the rotation. Oh, we are going after Robertson and Ottavino, maybe Britton. Nope. Then it was Shawn Kelley. Nope. Um, I'm ok how it is! No, you're not. There is definitely a high delta for bullpens, unless you bring in guys with swing and miss stuff AND a history of success. Redundancy is key in a pen. Nearly every season you lose a reliever to either the yips or injury. Last year for us it was Kahnle. Not sure who you guys really "lost" in the pen last year. In terms of pen guys, Barnes had some hip issue, but you had a lot of health in the pen. It helps to have the bridge and the closer role defined at the outset. It helps with the mindset of the pen and it helps add a chip to the shoulder of the guys who want to bully themselves into a role. When it is a free for all from the beginning with one good reliever (Barnes) and a bunch of guys with talent yet no track record, it becomes a mess. This is not a division that is easily won. You cannot turn wins into losses and win the division. A bad pen almost always leads to an underperforming Pythag.

[Kimmi]

I am finding this very, very funny. The pen was a concern at the outset. Then it was Eovaldi can close if need be. No, he is in the rotation. Oh, we are going after Robertson and Ottavino, maybe Britton. Nope. Then it was Shawn Kelley. Nope. Um, I'm ok how it is! No, you're not. There is definitely a high delta for bullpens, unless you bring in guys with swing and miss stuff AND a history of success. Redundancy is key in a pen. Nearly every season you lose a reliever to either the yips or injury. Last year for us it was Kahnle. Not sure who you guys really "lost" in the pen last year. In terms of pen guys, Barnes had some hip issue, but you had a lot of health in the pen. It helps to have the bridge and the closer role defined at the outset. It helps with the mindset of the pen and it helps add a chip to the shoulder of the guys who want to bully themselves into a role. When it is a free for all from the beginning with one good reliever (Barnes) and a bunch of guys with talent yet no track record, it becomes a mess. This is not a division that is easily won. You cannot turn wins into losses and win the division. A bad pen almost always leads to an underperforming Pythag.

 

Stop Jacko. Just stop.

 

You are also neglecting our secret weapon, one Alex Cora. Dude has the Midas touch.

[notin]

I am finding this very, very funny. The pen was a concern at the outset. Then it was Eovaldi can close if need be. No, he is in the rotation. Oh, we are going after Robertson and Ottavino, maybe Britton. Nope. Then it was Shawn Kelley. Nope. Um, I'm ok how it is! No, you're not. There is definitely a high delta for bullpens, unless you bring in guys with swing and miss stuff AND a history of success. Redundancy is key in a pen. Nearly every season you lose a reliever to either the yips or injury. Last year for us it was Kahnle. Not sure who you guys really "lost" in the pen last year. In terms of pen guys, Barnes had some hip issue, but you had a lot of health in the pen. It helps to have the bridge and the closer role defined at the outset. It helps with the mindset of the pen and it helps add a chip to the shoulder of the guys who want to bully themselves into a role. When it is a free for all from the beginning with one good reliever (Barnes) and a bunch of guys with talent yet no track record, it becomes a mess. This is not a division that is easily won. You cannot turn wins into losses and win the division. A bad pen almost always leads to an underperforming Pythag.

 

I think it’s just Dombrowski being sporting.

 

If he did build a killer bullpen, what chance would the Yankees even have this season?

[jacksonianmarch]

I think it’s just Dombrowski being sporting.

 

If he did build a killer bullpen, what chance would the Yankees even have this season?

 

The Yanks have improved coming into this season. If the sox are as currently constituted, could you honestly tell yourself the same thing about your squad?

[jacksonianmarch]

The job of the GM is to put the best team on paper on the field. The jobs of the coaches and the players is to play to or above the potential. If DD doesn’t get creative, he’s has failed. Re-signing Pearce to a platoon role at the given rate with Chavis sitting in the minors was a dumb move and something I’m sure he’d say in retrospect he hadn’t done. Take the $6 mil he spent on Pearce plus the buffer and go out and get Wilson and Kelley and you’ve got at least some big league level options out there

[Bellhorn04]

Re-signing Pearce to a platoon role at the given rate with Chavis sitting in the minors was a dumb move

 

Settle down. As if Chavis was sure to give us the same results as a proven veteran like Pearce.

[moonslav59]

I am finding this very, very funny. The pen was a concern at the outset. Then it was Eovaldi can close if need be. No, he is in the rotation. Oh, we are going after Robertson and Ottavino, maybe Britton. Nope. Then it was Shawn Kelley. Nope. Um, I'm ok how it is! No, you're not. There is definitely a high delta for bullpens, unless you bring in guys with swing and miss stuff AND a history of success. Redundancy is key in a pen. Nearly every season you lose a reliever to either the yips or injury. Last year for us it was Kahnle. Not sure who you guys really "lost" in the pen last year. In terms of pen guys, Barnes had some hip issue, but you had a lot of health in the pen. It helps to have the bridge and the closer role defined at the outset. It helps with the mindset of the pen and it helps add a chip to the shoulder of the guys who want to bully themselves into a role. When it is a free for all from the beginning with one good reliever (Barnes) and a bunch of guys with talent yet no track record, it becomes a mess. This is not a division that is easily won. You cannot turn wins into losses and win the division. A bad pen almost always leads to an underperforming Pythag.

 

You said our pen was bad last year, and yours was the best.

 

How did that work out?

 

[dgalehouse]

You said our pen was bad last year, and yours was the best.

 

How did that work out?

 

I don't think our bullpen last year was all that bad . We don't win 108 games if it was . I do like the Yankee's approach to building a strong pen . It is very important in today's game . They did win 100 games last year despite some serious issues with their starters .

[notin]

The Yanks have improved coming into this season. If the sox are as currently constituted, could you honestly tell yourself the same thing about your squad?

 

Did the improvements the Yankees made make up an 8 game deficit?

[moonslav59]

I don't think our bullpen last year was all that bad . We don't win 108 games if it was . I do like the Yankee's approach to building a strong pen . It is very important in today's game . They did win 100 games last year despite some serious issues with their starters .

 

My point was that our pen was viewed as weak last February and into March, including myself calling it "our weakest, but not weak area" going into 2018.

 

Certainly, I view our pen as being weaker this February than last February, but maybe I will be surprised again by an over-performing pen.

 

[moonslav59]

Did the improvements the Yankees made make up an 8 game deficit?

 

Of course, wait for the pythagorean differential to be introduced (BOS 103- NYY 100).

[Kimmi]

The job of the GM is to put the best team on paper on the field. The jobs of the coaches and the players is to play to or above the potential. If DD doesn’t get creative, he’s has failed. Re-signing Pearce to a platoon role at the given rate with Chavis sitting in the minors was a dumb move and something I’m sure he’d say in retrospect he hadn’t done. Take the $6 mil he spent on Pearce plus the buffer and go out and get Wilson and Kelley and you’ve got at least some big league level options out there

 

In terms of the 2019 team, Dombrowski has in no way failed.

 

Be serious.

[Kimmi]

Of course, wait for the pythagorean differential to be introduced (BOS 103- NYY 100).

 

Pythagorean differential is the way it should be approached. And not to nitpick, but BR has the Yankees Pythagorean total at 99 wins, not 100.

 

Have the Yankees made up 4 games this offseason against us? I don't think so.

 

By early projections, Fangraphs have the Red Sox and Yankees as being the two best teams in baseball, with 97 and 96 wins, respectively.

 

To be fair to Jacko, Davenport has the besting the Sox by a whopping 6 games, 96 wins to 90 wins.

 

IMO, the title is ours to lose. Back to back.

[moonslav59]

Some of that Pythagorean differential can be attributed to the two managers.

 

That has not changed.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pythagorean differential is the way it should be approached. And not to nitpick, but BR has the Yankees Pythagorean total at 99 wins, not 100.

 

Have the Yankees made up 4 games this offseason against us? I don't think so.

 

By early projections, Fangraphs have the Red Sox and Yankees as being the two best teams in baseball, with 97 and 96 wins, respectively.

 

To be fair to Jacko, Davenport has the besting the Sox by a whopping 6 games, 96 wins to 90 wins.

 

IMO, the title is ours to lose. Back to back.

 

It is going to be a dogfight. But the sox and yankees are going to use their pen about the same in terms of IP. Last year the sox got 10 more innings out of their rotation. The sox have Eovaldi for the whole year, we have Happ and Paxton for the whole year. I expect about the same workload team to team. Provided that, you take Kimbrel and Kelly away from your pen, you remove Robertson and add Ottavino and a full, healthy (presumably) year from Britton to ours. How is that not a plus to our advantage? Also, yes, the sox have the best pitcher on either team in Sale. That works well in the post season (except for Sale's penchant for being spent by October) but in the regular season, the #5 slot is as important than the #1 in theory. Our 1-5 is far more proven and actually did better than the sox did last year. Can it be replicated? I don't know, but I anticipate the yankees entire staff should outperform the sox' staff and with the back end of the pen wide open, I see a bunch of crushing late inning losses coming. The 2019 sox are worse than the 2018 sox. The 2019 Yanks are better than the 2018 Yanks

[cp176]

Wouldn't it be nice for some if the games were actually played out on paper. Stat folk might be happy I guess. Kind of like playing Strato - the advanced version of course. News flash - Games are played on the field. Predict away all you want folks. Quote as many reliable sources that you wish to prove your pre- season points. Have fun but remember - Sometimes all of the predictions go for naught. That is what makes the real season as opposed to the created on paper season much more entertaining. I kind of like our Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

Wouldn't it be nice for some if the games were actually played out on paper. Stat folk might be happy I guess. Kind of like playing Strato - the advanced version of course. News flash - Games are played on the field. Predict away all you want folks. Quote as many reliable sources that you wish to prove your pre- season points. Have fun but remember - Sometimes all of the predictions go for naught. That is what makes the real season as opposed to the created on paper season much more entertaining. I kind of like our Red Sox.

 

What's not to like? These guys are a tight unit. They pick each other up.

 

(BTW, I love stats but never play any stat games or fantasy baseball. The game "on the field" is what I love most, and baseball is the best game ever invented.)

[mvp 78]

Wouldn't it be nice for some if the games were actually played out on paper. Stat folk might be happy I guess. Kind of like playing Strato - the advanced version of course. News flash - Games are played on the field. Predict away all you want folks. Quote as many reliable sources that you wish to prove your pre- season points. Have fun but remember - Sometimes all of the predictions go for naught. That is what makes the real season as opposed to the created on paper season much more entertaining. I kind of like our Red Sox.

 

This is a dumb argument. It's basically just saying "don't talk about baseball until April."

[cp176]

This is a dumb argument. It's basically just saying "don't talk about baseball until April."

 

ok - not so much but if that is your interpretation it is ok. I actually thought that someone might see through parts of my statement and understand that I truly think that often times our resident Yankee fan is full of crap.

[cp176]

What's not to like? These guys are a tight unit. They pick each other up.

 

(BTW, I love stats but never play any stat games or fantasy baseball. The game "on the field" is what I love most, and baseball is the best game ever invented.)

 

For the record, I actually enjoy reading what the folks here who value all things statistical have to say. Moon - I played strato the advanced version for many years. I still have the 78 season kicking around the house. We did not have computers to do our computations for us back in the day (pre 1965). I absolutely give credit to this game for my learning some very basic math facts and being able to actually factor on the fly. I love the game and all things statistical the enhance it. Keep the flood of info coming.

[notin]

Re-signing Pearce to a platoon role at the given rate with Chavis sitting in the minors was a dumb move and something I’m sure he’d say in retrospect he hadn’t done. Take the $6 mil he spent on Pearce plus the buffer and go out and get Wilson and Kelley and you’ve got at least some big league level options out there

 

You might need to make up your mind here.

 

While no one has questioned the signing of Pearce over a reliever more than me, you were predicting he’d be worth a much higher AAV on a multi year deal.

 

And it still leaves other options. If, as you’re suggesting, Chavis can replace Pearce, you are in effect saying Chavis should produce equal to a multi year higher AAV contract player. Doesn’t that mean Chavis should have significant trade value? Maybe enough to trade for a reliever?