The Pen

[sk7326]

My point is that games are decided by runs scored , not base runners. Ultimately, the only base runners who matter are the ones who scored . I am not saying that WHIP has no value . Just saying that career ERA is the best method for judging pitchers . All of the little discrepancies will tend to even out over the course of a career . Of course, nothing is going to be perfect .

 

Can't get home without getting to first. Baserunners are the ingredients for runs and there is no evidence that a pitcher can control the latter without controlling the former.

[Bellhorn04]

I've mentioned this before about Kimbrel, but I will mention it again.

 

His WHIP with Boston is almost identical to his WHIP with Atlanta, but his ERA is higher.

 

The simple reason appears to be more long balls.

[moonslav59]

I've mentioned this before about Kimbrel, but I will mention it again.

 

His WHIP with Boston is almost identical to his WHIP with Atlanta, but his ERA is higher.

 

The simple reason appears to be more long balls.

 

Yes, which would be and is captured by SLG% and its influence on OPS against.

 

.448 ATL (.208 SLG)

 

.569 SDP

 

.514 BOS (.267 SLG)

[dgalehouse]

Can't get home without getting to first. Baserunners are the ingredients for runs and there is no evidence that a pitcher can control the latter without controlling the former.

 

Some base runners score and some don't. ERA will reflect that . WHIP won't. WHIP gives the same value to a base on balls or an infield single that it gives to a home run. ERA is the better stat .

[notin]

Some base runners score and some don't. ERA will reflect that . WHIP won't. WHIP gives the same value to a base on balls or an infield single that it gives to a home run. ERA is the better stat .

 

Batting average treats a home run and an infield single the same, but plenty of people use it.

 

ERA also gives the same credit for the runners the pitcher allows to score and the inherited runners that score on the following reliever. ERA is also more influenced by ballpark than WHIP.

 

ERA has the advantage of being more popular and more recognizable, but for relievers it gets easily blown up by one bad inning. If an RP throws 60 IP per year, every earned run is worth 0.15 on his ERA. So one 4 ER inning can make a substantial difference, and your season long 2.40 is now 3.00.

 

Also what about all those unearned runs? Why do they get completely ignored? If the team behind a reliever plays great defense, the pitcher benefits. But if they play poor defense, no impact at all? It just gets ignored? Like it never happened? Even if the reliever pitches like complete s*** after the error?

Edited January 31, 2019 by notin

[dgalehouse]

Batting average treats a home run and an infield single the same, but plenty of people use it.

 

ERA also gives the same credit for the runners the pitcher allows to score and the inherited runners that score on the following reliever. ERA is also more influenced by ballpark than WHIP...

Career ERA is the definitive stat for a pitcher . I tried to explain why . If you prefer WHIP , good .

[kenmeister]

Career ERA is the definitive stat for a pitcher . I tried to explain why . If you prefer WHIP , good .

 

For a relief pitcher, is there a stat that reflects inherited runners scoring?

[Bellhorn04]

For a relief pitcher, is there a stat that reflects inherited runners scoring?

 

Yes.

[notin]

Career ERA is the definitive stat for a pitcher . I tried to explain why . If you prefer WHIP , good .

 

To me, that’s situational.

 

If I’m looking at a pitcher for Hall of Fame candidacy, I like career ERA. But if I’m trying to decide if the Sox should acquire a pitcher or if one they did acquire was a good choice, I only look at the last 3 years. Nothing a pitcher did back in 2012 is relevant to how he’ll pitch today...

[Slasher9]

My point is that games are decided by runs scored , not base runners. Ultimately, the only base runners who matter are the ones who scored . I am not saying that WHIP has no value . Just saying that career ERA is the best method for judging pitchers . All of the little discrepancies will tend to even out over the course of a career . Of course, nothing is going to be perfect .

 

cool. so rbi's are the only offense stat that matters.

[dgalehouse]

cool. so rbi's are the only offense stat that matters.

 

Huh ? Who said anything about that ? I said that career ERA is the best stat for evaluating a pitcher . I guess I shouldn't be surprised that some would disagree. Some will disagree with just about anything.

[moonslav59]

Some base runners score and some don't. ERA will reflect that . WHIP won't. WHIP gives the same value to a base on balls or an infield single that it gives to a home run. ERA is the better stat .

 

OPS against is a better stat than WHIP, and I think both WHIP and OPS against are better than ERA for RP'ers who often come in for partial innings.

[moonslav59]

cool. so rbi's are the only offense stat that matters.

 

and runs, apparently.

 

Mybe just GWRBI should count.

[dgalehouse]

I find that condescending replies are usually an effective way to end a debate .

[mvp 78]

I find that condescending replies are usually an effective way to end a debate .

 

The debate never ends on here.

[Kimmi]

I think Koji is my favorite. I like most of the guys mentioned, wasn't the biggest Papelbon fan, I thought he was kind of douche, but besides him lol.

 

I don't know that he was my favorite, but he was my favorite when it came to closing out games. He just didn't mess around and almost never created any 9th inning drama.

[Kimmi]

Giving up a run and not giving up a run isn’t always the responsibility of the pitcher alone...

 

Deserved Run Average (DRA) - A stat whose time is well past due.

[Kimmi]

Some base runners score and some don't. ERA will reflect that . WHIP won't. WHIP gives the same value to a base on balls or an infield single that it gives to a home run. ERA is the better stat .

 

ERA gives the same value to a pitcher who has a dominant 1-2-3 inning as it does to a pitcher who walks the bases loaded without recording an out, leaves the game, and has a reliever clean up his mess.

 

And that's just one of the many flaws of ERA.

[Kimmi]

For a relief pitcher, is there a stat that reflects inherited runners scoring?

 

The aforementioned DRA takes this into account, on both the starting pitcher's part and the reliever's part.

[moonslav59]

ERA gives the same value to a pitcher who has a dominant 1-2-3 inning as it does to a pitcher who walks the bases loaded without recording an out, leaves the game, and has a reliever clean up his mess.

 

And that's just one of the many flaws of ERA.

 

Or, a RP'er comes in with 2 outs, loads the bases and gets one out for a 0.00 ERA. Another RP'er comes in with no outs and loads the bases. He has to get 3 outs to get a 0.00 ERA while the other guys just one.

 

Guys like Kimbrel almost always come in for clean innings, but other RP'ers hardly ever do.

[notin]

Or, a RP'er comes in with 2 outs, loads the bases and gets one out for a 0.00 ERA. Another RP'er comes in with no outs and loads the bases. He has to get 3 outs to get a 0.00 ERA while the other guys just one.

 

Guys like Kimbrel almost always come in for clean innings, but other RP'ers hardly ever do.

 

 

And even if Kimbrel does come in with men on base, those runs get charged on someone else’s ERA, allowing him to kee that pristine 0.00...

[notin]

Deserved Run Average (DRA) - A stat whose time is well past due.

 

DRA is old and hard to find.

 

I think FIP, xFIP and SIERA are all good measures...

[dgalehouse]

Or, a RP'er comes in with 2 outs, loads the bases and gets one out for a 0.00 ERA. Another RP'er comes in with no outs and loads the bases. He has to get 3 outs to get a 0.00 ERA while the other guys just one.

 

Guys like Kimbrel almost always come in for clean innings, but other RP'ers hardly ever do.

 

Starters often pitch partial innings also . There are always going to be little blips that happen occasionally with any stat . These things tend to even out over time and are of minimal impact to something like a career ERA .

[moonslav59]

Starters often pitch partial innings also . There are always going to be little blips that happen occasionally with any stat . These things tend to even out over time and are of minimal impact to something like a career ERA .

 

SP'er never come into a game or inning with 1-2 outs already on the board. That's a huge difference in ERA.

 

If a starter leaves with 1 out or 2 outs, his runners can still score and count against him. When a RP'er comes in with 1 or 2 outs, it makes it a lot harder for him to let up a run.

 

It's like they are playing an inning with just 1 out needed to get from the opps.

Edited February 1, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

And even if Kimbrel does come in with men on base, those runs get charged on someone else’s ERA, allowing him to kee that pristine 0.00...

 

Yes, but that shows up an his IR%.

 

My point is about coming into an inning with 1 or 2 outs and getting the huge benefit to your ERA, if you do it often.

[jacksonianmarch]

The name of the game is run prevention. Over a season sample size, especially for relievers, luck plays a big factor. But when you start getting to the career inning totals that Kimbrel reached, ERA matters.

[Jasonbay44]

I don't know that he was my favorite, but he was my favorite when it came to closing out games. He just didn't mess around and almost never created any 9th inning drama.

 

I liked that he was a shutdown closer, who usually ended the game quick, but I also loved his personally, he seemed like a really good dude and great teammate, not saying the others weren't, but I loved Koji.

[moonslav59]

The name of the game is run prevention. Over a season sample size, especially for relievers, luck plays a big factor. But when you start getting to the career inning totals that Kimbrel reached, ERA matters.

 

I agree, and my point about him almost always coming into the game in a clean inning when many other closers he is compared to do not only strengthens his already dominant ERA.

 

Kimbrel seems to thrive on higher pressure situations- most of which he creates himself.

 

I'm fine with using ERA as a major factor when comparing great RP'ers, but to me OPS against, WHIP and K/BB ratios are also important indicators of a pitchers dominance and effectiveness.

 

Kimbrel has a spectacular ERA and OPS against. His WHIP is excellent as well, but Koji was better in that area, and he blows Kimbrel away in K's to BBs.

 

I'm not trying to claim Koji is better. The longevity argument alone seals the argument, IMO, in CK's favor.

 

Koji was dominating in his own way, and 7 years is a pretty good run.

 

Kimbrel is better- no doubt here.

 

[dgalehouse]

SP'er never come into a game or inning with 1-2 outs already on the board. That's a huge difference in ERA.

 

If a starter leaves with 1 out or 2 outs, his runners can still score and count against him. When a RP'er comes in with 1 or 2 outs, it makes it a lot harder for him to let up a run.

 

It's like they are playing an inning with just 1 out needed to get from the opps.

 

Then they are getting credit for a third of an inning. Not much help to the ERA . If they happen to give up a run / runs , their ERA takes a beating. Starters can pitch a third of an inning and leave with two men on . If the reliever gets out of it , the starter is off the hook. There are always these little nuances . I'm talking about a career ERA , calculated from a large base of innings . No system is going to be perfect , but career ERA is the best yardstick.

[dgalehouse]

I will try to put it differently. To me , career ERA is the bottom line for a pitcher . Things like OPS against , batting average against , strikeouts , walks , WHIP , etc . are certainly important. But they are basically components of the bottom line . The bottom line tells the story. Preventing runs is the pitcher's goal . The other things are a means to achieving the goal . When judging a pitcher's career , I will always look at his career ERA first .