The Pen

[notin]

Starters often pitch partial innings also . There are always going to be little blips that happen occasionally with any stat . These things tend to even out over time and are of minimal impact to something like a career ERA .

 

Pitching for an entire career in Coors or Petco, or eve just a large chunk of it, doesn’t get “ironed out” in career ERA...

[Bellhorn04]

I will try to put it differently. To me , career ERA is the bottom line for a pitcher . Things like OPS against , batting average against , strikeouts , walks , WHIP , etc . are certainly important. But they are basically components of the bottom line . The bottom line tells the story. Preventing runs is the pitcher's goal . The other things are a means to achieving the goal . When judging a pitcher's career , I will always look at his career ERA first .

 

ERA is certainly one of the key stats.

 

Now when you think about it, ERA was one of the first 'stat geek' numbers.

 

Some geek decided that pitchers should not be victimized statistically by bad fielders, and that they needed a number that eliminates the runs resulting from errors.

 

Modern geeks have just built on that concept a bit.

[notin]

I will try to put it differently. To me , career ERA is the bottom line for a pitcher . Things like OPS against , batting average against , strikeouts , walks , WHIP , etc . are certainly important. But they are basically components of the bottom line . The bottom line tells the story. Preventing runs is the pitcher's goal . The other things are a means to achieving the goal . When judging a pitcher's career , I will always look at his career ERA first .

 

 

Preventing runs might be the pitcher’s goal, but he shares that goal with 8 other defensive players whose contributions exist but are very tough to distinguish.

 

But if I’m judging a career, I’m ok with career ERA. It’s readily understood. But depending how long that career is, it might not be the most representative of what a player can do tomorrow...

[TylerD]

ERA is certainly one of the key stats.

 

Now when you think about it, ERA was one of the first 'stat geek' numbers.

 

Some geek decided that pitchers should not be victimized statistically by bad fielders, and that they needed a number that eliminates the runs resulting from errors.

 

Modern geeks have just built on that concept a bit.

 

The pitchers I follow (specifically the Red Sox) I don't look too close at the ERA..... Of course that is pretty much all I look at when it comes to other pitchers on other teams as I don't follow them that close. But certainly ERA isn't everything. Porcello was pretty damn good for us this season but looking strictly at his ERA you wouldn't think he was anything more than average at best. There were a few pitchers that had better ERA's than he did when he won the Cy Young award in 2016.

[sk7326]

For relievers ERA is a bit dicey - especially since one bad outing can cripple it for the whole season. For relievers in particular - especially deciding who to add, give me strikeout rate and walk rate and I'll have a really good place to start. For starters, park adjusted ERA is not a terrible place to begin. But even then, between strikeout rates and batted ball statistics, we can do better in a deep dive.

[moonslav59]

Then they are getting credit for a third of an inning. Not much help to the ERA . If they happen to give up a run / runs , their ERA takes a beating. Starters can pitch a third of an inning and leave with two men on . If the reliever gets out of it , the starter is off the hook. There are always these little nuances . I'm talking about a career ERA , calculated from a large base of innings . No system is going to be perfect , but career ERA is the best yardstick.

 

You are not getting my point.

 

If a pitcher comes in with 2 outs, it is much harder for him to let up his own earned run than if he comes in with 0 or 1 out. He only needs to get one out to keep his ERA for that game at 0.00. Coming in with no outs, the pitcher has to get 3 outs or hope the guy that releives him does not let his runners score).

 

Scenario 1: Pitcher comes in with 2 outs and none on. He walks 3 guys. He needs to get just 1 out.What's the chance he lest up a run, or 2 or more?

 

Scenario 2: Pitcher comes in with 0 outs and none on. He walks 3 guys. he needs to get 3 outs. What's the chance he lest up a run, or 2 or more?

 

All things being equal, a pitcher who always comes in with 2 outs should have a much better ERA than one who always comes in with no outs (or 1 out).

 

[Slasher9]

The aforementioned DRA takes this into account, on both the starting pitcher's part and the reliever's part.

 

will it be the same guy deciding DRA that supposedly watches every defensive play in every MLB game to come up with DWAR?

he gonna be tired......

[Slasher9]

also...

Koji coming into the game in the 9th inning had about 1/100millionth of the anxiety that kimbrel gave us. does anyone want to argue this?

based on that fact alone...i would take koji 7 days a week and twice in a doubleheader over the leprechaun.......

this dude was a sinking line drive/great catch by beni from being the 21st century calvin shiraldi.........

[dgalehouse]

Pitching for an entire career in Coors or Petco, or eve just a large chunk of it, doesn’t get “ironed out” in career ERA...

 

Yeah . You can go crazy with all this stuff. I'll take career ERA as the best yardstick in evaluating a pitcher . It is not perfect . If you want to alter it by considering altitude, wind velocity, temperature, humidity, short porches , green monsters , rafters , death valleys , length of grass and so forth , have fun . We can have ERA + , ERA - , ERA *** , ERA x , ERA y , ERA z and on and on ad nauseum .

[mvp 78]

also...

Koji coming into the game in the 9th inning had about 1/100millionth of the anxiety that kimbrel gave us. does anyone want to argue this?

based on that fact alone...i would take koji 7 days a week and twice in a doubleheader over the leprechaun.......

this dude was a sinking line drive/great catch by beni from being the 21st century calvin shiraldi.........

 

Ok, how can we build a time machine to get 2013 Koji? I'm not sure there is anyone available like that at the moment.

[Slasher9]

Ok, how can we build a time machine to get 2013 Koji? I'm not sure there is anyone available like that at the moment.

 

sorry...i may have been mistaken on what we are discussing?. i thought we were comparing all sox closers. if i have to choose any of them to pitch in 2019 at their current age i'll take eckersly.....

just say no to kimbrel.

[mvp 78]

sorry...i may have been mistaken on what we are discussing?. i thought we were comparing all sox closers. if i have to choose any of them to pitch in 2019 at their current age i'll take eckersly.....

just say no to kimbrel.

 

Eck's arm is dead. I'd have to hold my nose and grab Paplebum.

[notin]

You’re right!! Career ERA is the best stat EVER!!! I can’t believe anyone even came up with other stats!!! Why it not only tells you how good a pitcher is, but it also does windows and makes a fine dessert topping!! And the best thing about it - it cannot be improved upon because it is solely based on pitcher ability!!! It’s so perfect, next to it perfection itself is a giant pile of poop!!!

[moonslav59]

You’re right!! Career ERA is the best stat EVER!!! I can’t believe anyone even came up with other stats!!! Why it not only tells you how good a pitcher is, but it also does windows and makes a fine dessert topping!! And the best thing about it - it cannot be improved upon because it is solely based on pitcher ability!!! It’s so perfect, next to it perfection itself is a giant pile of poop!!!

 

Sometimes, you really grasp the full scope of something!

[notin]

Ok, how can we build a time machine to get 2013 Koji? I'm not sure there is anyone available like that at the moment.

 

Koji didn’t even start pitching for the Sox until he was 38. Kimbrel’s desired contract this off-season that’s every team apparently thinks was too long would have only taken him through age 36...

[notin]

sorry...i may have been mistaken on what we are discussing?. i thought we were comparing all sox closers. if i have to choose any of them to pitch in 2019 at their current age i'll take eckersly.....

just say no to kimbrel.

 

Koji is a stretch at age 43. And Eckersley has already thrown a no hitter in MLB before Koji was even born...

[dgalehouse]

You’re right!! Career ERA is the best stat EVER!!! I can’t believe anyone even came up with other stats!!! Why it not only tells you how good a pitcher is, but it also does windows and makes a fine dessert topping!! And the best thing about it - it cannot be improved upon because it is solely based on pitcher ability!!! It’s so perfect, next to it perfection itself is a giant pile of poop!!!

 

I stand corrected. ERA is a trash , baseball card stat . I will try to do better.

[notin]

K

I stand corrected. ERA is a trash , baseball card stat . I will try to do better.

 

Was that so hard?

[dgalehouse]

K

 

Was that so hard?

 

The" Editor " has spoken .

[Jack Flap]

I don't think over-reliance on any one stat, to the exclusion of additional information and context, is ever a good idea. (Ironically, those of us who use WAR are often falsely accused of this.) I don't believe anyone is saying throw out ERA altogether, and I'm sure it will remain the first and most authoritative number most people use to judge a pitcher's effectiveness, but I don't see the problem with looking at it alongside newer metrics that seek to dig a little deeper.

 

Anyway, if the argument is that ERA belongs above all else because it tells us how good a pitcher was at preventing runs, period, without any of that wishy-washy stuff about what could or should have happened, shouldn't its proponents be arguing to get rid of the highly subjective "earned run" aspect and use something like RA9 instead?

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think over-reliance on any one stat, to the exclusion of additional information and context, is ever a good idea. (Ironically, those of us who use WAR are often falsely accused of this.) I don't believe anyone is saying throw out ERA altogether, and I'm sure it will remain the first and most authoritative number most people use to judge a pitcher's effectiveness, but I don't see the problem with looking at it alongside newer metrics that seek to dig a little deeper.

 

Anyway, if the argument is that ERA belongs above all else because it tells us how good a pitcher was at preventing runs, period, without any of that wishy-washy stuff about what could or should have happened, shouldn't its proponents be arguing to get rid of the highly subjective "earned run" aspect and use something like RA9 instead?

 

That's what I said too. I think ERA was probably the first real 'stat geek' stat.

[moonslav59]

That's what I said too. I think ERA was probably the first real 'stat geek' stat.

 

Maybe after BA.

[Kimmi]

Or, a RP'er comes in with 2 outs, loads the bases and gets one out for a 0.00 ERA. Another RP'er comes in with no outs and loads the bases. He has to get 3 outs to get a 0.00 ERA while the other guys just one.

 

Guys like Kimbrel almost always come in for clean innings, but other RP'ers hardly ever do.

 

There are so many scenarios like this that show the problems with ERA. I'm not saying it's a terrible or useless stat, and I will quote ERA myself because of its simplicity and familiarity, but there are better stats by which to measure a pitcher.

[Kimmi]

DRA is old and hard to find.

 

I think FIP, xFIP and SIERA are all good measures...

 

I agree that FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are all good measures.

 

I think DRA is better. It's not hard to find (Baseball Prospectus sortable stats), but BP does not allow you to filter stats the way Fangraphs or BR does, unless you have a subscription.

[Kimmi]

Starters often pitch partial innings also . There are always going to be little blips that happen occasionally with any stat . These things tend to even out over time and are of minimal impact to something like a career ERA .

 

I'm not so sure that these things tend to even out over time.

[Kimmi]

I liked that he was a shutdown closer, who usually ended the game quick, but I also loved his personally, he seemed like a really good dude and great teammate, not saying the others weren't, but I loved Koji.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that I didn't like Koji off the field. I agree that he seemed like a really good guy. I just like those other guys, Foulke, Kimbrel, and even Papelbon, maybe especially Papelbon, as well.

[Kimmi]

FTR, in case there was any doubt, let me say that I love stat geeks.

[harmony]

The Red Sox reportedly to sign lefty reliever Dan Runzler to a minor league contract:

 

[moonslav59]

There are so many scenarios like this that show the problems with ERA. I'm not saying it's a terrible or useless stat, and I will quote ERA myself because of its simplicity and familiarity, but there are better stats by which to measure a pitcher.

 

Agreed, but ERA for RP'ers is even worse.

[notin]

The Red Sox reportedly to sign lefty reliever Dan Runzler to a minor league contract:

 

 

 

I know there’s no such thing as a bad minor league contract. But Runzler has throw 7 MLB innings since 2011.

 

The Giants DFAd Derek Law today, who is far more intriguing than Runzler...