The Pen

[notin]

I said Kimbrel's hot commodity as a top reliever is very attractive at the deadline if they want to dump his contract. You interpret it as being a seller. Beyond 2019 is pointless to discuss right now.

 

 

Beyond 2019 might be pointless for us to discuss. But it absolutely is a factor Dombrowski has to consider if he is signing Kimbrel.

 

Also I’m not so sure how taking that the Sox will be dumping a contract at that deadline as being a seller is such a questionable interpretation. That’s exactly what sellers do at the deadline...

Edited February 12, 2019 by notin

[notin]

 

Relievers, by nature, are volatile.

 

 

Biggest myth in MLB...

[jacksonianmarch]

Kimbrel isn't signing for one season. Signing Kimbrel will mean saying goodbye to another of your FA's next year. This is why he isn't coming back to Boston. I wouldn't be surprised if Kimbrel has a Britton type offer in his pocket but is holding out for more.

[Bellhorn04]

That depends on how many of Betts, Bogaerts, Martinez and Sale the Sox want to keep. Plus extending Benintendi and filling gaps for departed players...

 

Well, that's a whole different kettle of fish from simply being difficult to keep Betts.

[dgalehouse]

Alex Speier had a really nice article in the Globe today regarding bullpens. If you haven't read it yet dgalehouse, I highly recommend it.

 

Here are some of the highlights:

 

"Of the 15 free-agent relievers who signed deals of at least $5 million per year, none was worth a single Win Above Replacement. Davis, Holland, Brandon Morrow, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, Tommy Hunter, Juan Nicasio, Addison Reed, Pat Neshek, Joe Smith, Anthony Swarzak, Steve Cishek, Luke Gregerson, Yusmeiro Petit, and Brandon Kintzler averaged 0.3 Wins Above Replacement."

 

AVERAGE ANNUAL VALUE (AAV) NUMBER AVERAGE WAR WIN PROBABILITY ADDED

$5M plus 15 0.3 -0.10

Minor league deal* 17 0.1 -0.03

 

"There were eight relievers who, after signing as free agents, were worth at least 1.0 WAR out of the bullpen, but none received one of the biggest contracts. The group was topped by Craig Stammen of the Padres (2.3 WAR, two-year, $4.5 million deal)"

 

And my personal favorite:

 

"Here’s a sobering thought for teams as they invest in relievers: The correlation coefficient between the average annual values of last year’s free agent relief class and those pitchers’ WARs was 0.002 — which is to say, there was no relationship at all between the money spent on big reliever deals and the performance of those relievers."

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/02/11/looking-for-good-bullpen-investment-strategy-there-isn-one/sosV7rupp8ikAI5OuB0KOL/story.html

 

Kimmi , My post on the last page of the " Are Sox players paid enough " thread sums up my feelings on WAR . Other than that , I think the bullpen is a vital part of today's game , and is not the place to try and luck out . As for Alex Speier ; I think he is a nerd and a kiss up nerd at that .

Edited February 12, 2019 by dgalehouse

[dgalehouse]

In other words, RPs are a crapshoot. Speier used way too many words.

 

Your run of the mill reliever may be a crap shoot . Just like your run of the mill starter . The top relievers are pretty consistent. I doubt the Yankees are thinking of their bullpen as a crap shoot . They are counting on it to be consistently good .

[notin]

Your run of the mill reliever may be a crap shoot . Just like your run of the mill starter . The top relievers are pretty consistent. I doubt the Yankees are thinking of their bullpen as a crap shoot . They are counting on it to be consistently good .

 

 

Exactly. I don’t recall anyone ever saying Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman or Kimbrel were volatile or crapshoots.

 

It’s not that relievers are inconsistent pitchers, but it is true that many inconsistent pitchers become relievers...

[Bellhorn04]

It’s not that relievers are inconsistent pitchers, but it is true that many inconsistent pitchers become relievers...

 

Seems like both would be true then.

[moonslav59]

Many starters are inconsistent, too.

[Bellhorn04]

Many starters are inconsistent, too.

 

Mike Mussina said it all. He said out of 32 starts there are 8 where you have everything working, 8 where you have nothing working, and 16 where you have something working.

[notin]

Seems like both would be true then.

 

 

Except for the sweeping generalization one...

[moonslav59]

Mike Mussina said it all. He said out of 32 starts there are 8 where you have everything working, 8 where you have nothing working, and 16 where you have something working.

 

...and he was consistent!

[Kimmi]

Looks like DD is doing the right thing.

 

Yes, very much so.

[Kimmi]

In other words, RPs are a crapshoot. Speier used way too many words.

 

LOL Don't knock my man Speier.

 

But yes, relievers are a crapshoot and they are the most easily replaced players on the team.

[Kimmi]

First off, last year was a terrible year for relief free agents to begin with. Then consider that the three best on the market all went to Colorado and you probably have your reasoning as to why none went above the 1.0 WAR line.

 

Relievers, by nature, are volatile. This offseason, you’ve had some of the most consistent and dominant ones hit the market. Not dipping into the market may prove to be the Sox downfall in 2019, especially if the Sox have to spend prospects AND money for relief at the deadline when it could just cost cash now

 

I am guessing that the correlation coefficient between AAV and WARs for relief pitchers is pretty low, regardless of the year. Yes, you may have a high priced reliever who performs really well, but at the same time you'd have a very inexpensive reliever performing just as well.

 

At any rate, I am not concerned with the Sox bullpen.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi , My post on the last page of the " Are Sox players paid enough " thread sums up my feelings on WAR . Other than that , I think the bullpen is a vital part of today's game , and is not the place to try and luck out . As for Alex Speier ; I think he is a nerd and a kiss up nerd at that .

 

The bullpen is a vital part of today's game. I don't think anyone is suggesting otherwise.

 

As for Alex Speier, I am a big fan of baseball nerds, and nerds in general.

[Kimmi]

Exactly. I don’t recall anyone ever saying Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman or Kimbrel were volatile or crapshoots.

 

It’s not that relievers are inconsistent pitchers, but it is true that many inconsistent pitchers become relievers...

 

Speier did point out the remarkableness of Rivera and Kimbrel, given the volatile nature of relievers.

 

Yes, relievers are volatile creatures. There are exceptions to every rule, but relievers are most definitely volatile, on the whole.

[dgalehouse]

The bullpen is a vital part of today's game. I don't think anyone is suggesting otherwise.

 

As for Alex Speier, I am a big fan of baseball nerds, and nerds in general.

 

If you want to learn about weight lifting / body building , go to Arnold Schwarzenegger not Arnold Stang . If you want to learn about baseball , go to Alex Rodriguez ( I know , I know ) not Alex Speier .

[dgalehouse]

One more thing : This talk about a " crap shoot " sets up a convenient excuse for failure . You see it all the time in the post season . And now you see it when talking about bullpen construction. Should the bullpen fail , you can say " I told you it was a crap shoot . We happened to roll snake eyes , but it was not our fault. These things happen in a crap shoot " .

[Slasher9]

One more thing : This talk about a " crap shoot " sets up a convenient excuse for failure . You see it all the time in the post season . And now you see it when talking about bullpen construction. Should the bullpen fail , you can say " I told you it was a crap shoot . We happened to roll snake eyes , but it was not our fault. These things happen in a crap shoot " .

 

you have better odds playing craps than a professional player has getting a basehit in MLB.....so maybe "crapshoot" isnt so bad?

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

 

Dombrowski: ‘I still believe that pitching the ninth inning is different from pitching the other innings.’ Says Barnes, Brasier clearly have the stuff to close but ‘time will tell’ whether they are comfortable in the ninth.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

 

Dombrowski on replacing Kimbrel: ‘It’s not easily done. He is, to me, a future HOF reliever.’ But mentions opportunities that will exist for internal options, mentioning Barnes, Brasier, Kimbrel, and Wright. Dombrowski says Thornburg is healthy, and has been very good in the past

[FredLynn]

Exactly. I don’t recall anyone ever saying Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman or Kimbrel were volatile or crapshoots.

 

It’s not that relievers are inconsistent pitchers, but it is true that many inconsistent pitchers become relievers...

 

Those guys are exceptions and you know it. Furthermore, at times Kimbrel WAS a crapshoot last year. Way too much drama. And numbers significantly below his career average. The examples of guys who far exceeded expectations as RPs or underperformed are too many to list. Starters-probably because they have a much larger sample size in terms of innings pitched-are more predictable (though by no means can Fangraphs or any other model say for certain how a player will pitch). So yes, RPs ARE a crapshoot-mostly.

[notin]

Those guys are exceptions and you know it. Furthermore, at times Kimbrel WAS a crapshoot last year. Way too much drama. And numbers significantly below his career average. The examples of guys who far exceeded expectations as RPs or underperformed are too many to list. Starters-probably because they have a much larger sample size in terms of innings pitched-are more predictable (though by no means can Fangraphs or any other model say for certain how a player will pitch). So yes, RPs ARE a crapshoot-mostly.

 

Even then, I can name numerous other relievers who are reliable the majority of the time.

 

Some teams just build bullpens using primarily cheaper high upside/no consistency pitchers. But do you think the Yankee bullpen with Chapman, Britton, Ottavino, Green, and Betances has a lot of volatile pitchers? Or the Brewers bullpen with Hader, Jeffress, Knebel, Barnes, etc? Or when the Royals had Holland, Davis, Crow and Collins?

 

Some teams just use good pitchers in their bullpen.

 

dgalehouse summed it up. Some relievers are crapshoots, but so are some starters...

[Bellhorn04]

The small samples play a huge part in the apparent inconsistency, of course. A reliever pitches one inning, gives up one run, that's a crappy stat line. If he was a starter he would at least have a chance to make it look better.

[FredLynn]

Even then, I can name numerous other relievers who are reliable the majority of the time.

 

Some teams just build bullpens using primarily cheaper high upside/no consistency pitchers. But do you think the Yankee bullpen with Chapman, Britton, Ottavino, Green, and Betances has a lot of volatile pitchers? Or the Brewers bullpen with Hader, Jeffress, Knebel, Barnes, etc? Or when the Royals had Holland, Davis, Crow and Collins?

 

Some teams just use good pitchers in their bullpen.

 

dgalehouse summed it up. Some relievers are crapshoots, but so are some starters...

 

More RPs are crapshoots than starters in terms of predictablity. We will see how the Yankee bullpen does this year. ON PAPER they look good. ON PAPER the Yankees should have won the ALE last year too. Far more RPs are crapshoots than RPs who are predictable. RPs are RPs because they are, in general, not good enough to be starters-in part because they are inconsistent.

Edited February 13, 2019 by FredLynn

[notin]

The small samples play a huge part in the apparent inconsistency, of course. A reliever pitches one inning, gives up one run, that's a crappy stat line. If he was a starter he would at least have a chance to make it look better.

 

 

Yes if you prefer ERA as a measure.

 

For a long time the philosophy was “best pitchers start, worse pitchers to the bullpen.” Then it evolved to “ worse pitchers to the bullpen plus one really good reliever who closes.”

 

But now, teams seem to be gravitating towards putting better pitchers in the bullpen and relying on starters less, probably driven by economics, as middle relievers tend to be the cheapest pitchers...

[jacksonianmarch]

It’s no longer bad pitchers go to the pen. It’s all about pitch development. Starters have three pitches and have the ability to not lose their velocity for 100 pitches. Some great starters have two absolutely ridiculous pitches (RJ comes to mind), but most of the time they have three at least average pitches. Pen guys still need two pitches. And with how the evolution of the pen guys has moved, you also need strikeout stuff. Most pen guys nowadays throw hard or have such great movement that they can generate swings and misses. Back in the day, your relievers were guys who could also be your 6th or 7th starters. Now, you carry one guy who can be an emergency fill in, but the rest are a maximum 1-2 inning player

[jacksonianmarch]

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/saves-and-steals/bullpen-review-al-east

 

rotoworld's writeup

[harmony]

FanGraphs columnist Jay Jaffe writes that relievers Ryan Madsen and Tony Sipp could "find homes" with the Red Sox:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-find-homes-for-a-few-more-unsigned-free-agents/