The Pen

[Slasher9]

I’m not entirely certain Dombrowski is prioritizing 10 draft slots over a World Series...

 

EXACTLY

the 30th pick = the 40th pick. there really isnt a f***ing difference.

keep the duck boats gassed up.....

[moonslav59]

EXACTLY

the 30th pick = the 40th pick. there really isnt a f***ing difference.

keep the duck boats gassed up.....

 

The tax would be enormous.

 

Plus, Kimbrel guarantees nothing, and if he gets more than one year, it likely means saying goodbye to someone we might have been able to keep (like Bogey).

[Slasher9]

The tax would be enormous.

 

Plus, Kimbrel guarantees nothing, and if he gets more than one year, it likely means saying goodbye to someone we might have been able to keep (like Bogey).

 

i'm talking about going over the limit in 2019. not specifically for CK.

the highest tax rate is only applied to every dollar over the highest threshold. it doesn't make the tax higher on the first $240MM of the payroll.....

[moonslav59]

i'm talking about going over the limit in 2019. not specifically for CK.

the highest tax rate is only applied to every dollar over the highest threshold. it doesn't make the tax higher on the first $240MM of the payroll.....

 

Yes, but just about every dollar spent going forward would be at the high tax rate.

[notin]

Yes, but just about every dollar spent going forward would be at the high tax rate.

 

Just raise the beer price by 25 cents - BOOM!!

 

Covered that tax...

[moonslav59]

Just raise the beer price by 25 cents - BOOM!!

 

Covered that tax...

 

To $17.25 for a 12 oz Bud?

[Kimmi]

Alex Speier had a really nice article in the Globe today regarding bullpens. If you haven't read it yet dgalehouse, I highly recommend it.

 

Here are some of the highlights:

 

"Of the 15 free-agent relievers who signed deals of at least $5 million per year, none was worth a single Win Above Replacement. Davis, Holland, Brandon Morrow, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, Tommy Hunter, Juan Nicasio, Addison Reed, Pat Neshek, Joe Smith, Anthony Swarzak, Steve Cishek, Luke Gregerson, Yusmeiro Petit, and Brandon Kintzler averaged 0.3 Wins Above Replacement."

 

AVERAGE ANNUAL VALUE (AAV) NUMBER AVERAGE WAR WIN PROBABILITY ADDED

$5M plus 15 0.3 -0.10

Minor league deal* 17 0.1 -0.03

 

"There were eight relievers who, after signing as free agents, were worth at least 1.0 WAR out of the bullpen, but none received one of the biggest contracts. The group was topped by Craig Stammen of the Padres (2.3 WAR, two-year, $4.5 million deal)"

 

And my personal favorite:

 

"Here’s a sobering thought for teams as they invest in relievers: The correlation coefficient between the average annual values of last year’s free agent relief class and those pitchers’ WARs was 0.002 — which is to say, there was no relationship at all between the money spent on big reliever deals and the performance of those relievers."

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/02/11/looking-for-good-bullpen-investment-strategy-there-isn-one/sosV7rupp8ikAI5OuB0KOL/story.html

[moonslav59]

Alex Speier had a really nice article in the Globe today regarding bullpens. If you haven't read it yet dgalehouse, I highly recommend it.

 

Here are some of the highlights:

 

"Of the 15 free-agent relievers who signed deals of at least $5 million per year, none was worth a single Win Above Replacement. Davis, Holland, Brandon Morrow, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, Tommy Hunter, Juan Nicasio, Addison Reed, Pat Neshek, Joe Smith, Anthony Swarzak, Steve Cishek, Luke Gregerson, Yusmeiro Petit, and Brandon Kintzler averaged 0.3 Wins Above Replacement."

 

AVERAGE ANNUAL VALUE (AAV) NUMBER AVERAGE WAR WIN PROBABILITY ADDED

$5M plus 15 0.3 -0.10

Minor league deal* 17 0.1 -0.03

 

"There were eight relievers who, after signing as free agents, were worth at least 1.0 WAR out of the bullpen, but none received one of the biggest contracts. The group was topped by Craig Stammen of the Padres (2.3 WAR, two-year, $4.5 million deal)"

 

And my personal favorite:

 

"Here’s a sobering thought for teams as they invest in relievers: The correlation coefficient between the average annual values of last year’s free agent relief class and those pitchers’ WARs was 0.002 — which is to say, there was no relationship at all between the money spent on big reliever deals and the performance of those relievers."

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/02/11/looking-for-good-bullpen-investment-strategy-there-isn-one/sosV7rupp8ikAI5OuB0KOL/story.html

 

Looks like DD is doing the right thing.

[FredLynn]

The tax would be enormous.

 

Plus, Kimbrel guarantees nothing, and if he gets more than one year, it likely means saying goodbye to someone we might have been able to keep (like Bogey).

 

Kimbrel should get only one year. Period. Or we let him play somewhere else.

[FredLynn]

Alex Speier had a really nice article in the Globe today regarding bullpens. If you haven't read it yet dgalehouse, I highly recommend it.

 

Here are some of the highlights:

 

"Of the 15 free-agent relievers who signed deals of at least $5 million per year, none was worth a single Win Above Replacement. Davis, Holland, Brandon Morrow, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, Tommy Hunter, Juan Nicasio, Addison Reed, Pat Neshek, Joe Smith, Anthony Swarzak, Steve Cishek, Luke Gregerson, Yusmeiro Petit, and Brandon Kintzler averaged 0.3 Wins Above Replacement."

 

AVERAGE ANNUAL VALUE (AAV) NUMBER AVERAGE WAR WIN PROBABILITY ADDED

$5M plus 15 0.3 -0.10

Minor league deal* 17 0.1 -0.03

 

"There were eight relievers who, after signing as free agents, were worth at least 1.0 WAR out of the bullpen, but none received one of the biggest contracts. The group was topped by Craig Stammen of the Padres (2.3 WAR, two-year, $4.5 million deal)"

 

And my personal favorite:

 

"Here’s a sobering thought for teams as they invest in relievers: The correlation coefficient between the average annual values of last year’s free agent relief class and those pitchers’ WARs was 0.002 — which is to say, there was no relationship at all between the money spent on big reliever deals and the performance of those relievers."

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/02/11/looking-for-good-bullpen-investment-strategy-there-isn-one/sosV7rupp8ikAI5OuB0KOL/story.html

 

In other words, RPs are a crapshoot. Speier used way too many words.

[Station 13]

Kimbrel comes down to years for the Red Sox. If his market is 3 year they'll reel him back. He can be traded easily after 2019

[cp176]

I still think that there is a chance that Kimbrel comes back to Boston. Possibly because I like him and partly because I think that the primary people worrying about the Red sox budget to an extreme might be a few posters here.

[notin]

I still think that there is a chance that Kimbrel comes back to Boston. Possibly because I like him and partly because I think that the primary people worrying about the Red sox budget to an extreme might be a few posters here.

 

 

Actually the only person apparently worried about the Sox budget is David Dombrowski. A few posters here have acknowledged he is worried about it, which is not the same thing...

[notin]

Kimbrel comes down to years for the Red Sox. If his market is 3 year they'll reel him back. He can be traded easily after 2019

 

 

Why is he so tradable after 2019 when teams are not exactly lining up to get him now without giving up prospects?

[Bellhorn04]

I still think that there is a chance that Kimbrel comes back to Boston. Possibly because I like him and partly because I think that the primary people worrying about the Red sox budget to an extreme might be a few posters here.

 

But we haven't signed any relievers at all, and there were quite a few available. That does suggest there wasn't much in the budget for relievers.

[Station 13]

Why is he so tradable after 2019 when teams are not exactly lining up to get him now without giving up prospects?

 

Relievers are always a hot commodity at the trade deadline.

[notin]

Relievers are always a hot commodity at the trade deadline.

 

For contenders. Think the Sox will be buying or selling mid-2020?

[Station 13]

For contenders. Think the Sox will be buying or selling mid-2020?

 

Buyers.

[Bellhorn04]

Would Kimbrel now settle for Wade Davis money?

[Station 13]

Would Kimbrel now settle for Wade Davis money?

 

He may not have much of a choice.

[Bellhorn04]

He may not have much of a choice.

 

It really looks that way.

[moonslav59]

Relievers are always a hot commodity at the trade deadline.

 

Not with 2 years left at a high cost, and especially if he shows further decline from 2018.

[mvp 78]

They'll go over the limit. Just waiting to get him at their price.

 

This is how I feel.

[notin]

Buyers.

 

So the Sox will be buyers - likely looking for bullpen help. And they will have Kimbrel and try to move him?

 

That might make Kimbrel the best reliever on the market, which means no matter who the Sox acquire, trading Kimbrel weakens the bullpen...

[Bellhorn04]

So the Sox will be buyers - likely looking for bullpen help. And they will have Kimbrel and try to move him?

 

That might make Kimbrel the best reliever on the market, which means no matter who the Sox acquire, trading Kimbrel weakens the bullpen...

 

In theory, you keep him if you're in it and trade him if you're not.

[notin]

In theory, you keep him if you're in it and trade him if you're not.

 

That theory also makes it more difficult to keep Betts. I think that is part of the dilemma Dombrowski has with signing Kimbrel’...

[jacksonianmarch]

Alex Speier had a really nice article in the Globe today regarding bullpens. If you haven't read it yet dgalehouse, I highly recommend it.

 

Here are some of the highlights:

 

"Of the 15 free-agent relievers who signed deals of at least $5 million per year, none was worth a single Win Above Replacement. Davis, Holland, Brandon Morrow, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, Tommy Hunter, Juan Nicasio, Addison Reed, Pat Neshek, Joe Smith, Anthony Swarzak, Steve Cishek, Luke Gregerson, Yusmeiro Petit, and Brandon Kintzler averaged 0.3 Wins Above Replacement."

 

AVERAGE ANNUAL VALUE (AAV) NUMBER AVERAGE WAR WIN PROBABILITY ADDED

$5M plus 15 0.3 -0.10

Minor league deal* 17 0.1 -0.03

 

"There were eight relievers who, after signing as free agents, were worth at least 1.0 WAR out of the bullpen, but none received one of the biggest contracts. The group was topped by Craig Stammen of the Padres (2.3 WAR, two-year, $4.5 million deal)"

 

And my personal favorite:

 

"Here’s a sobering thought for teams as they invest in relievers: The correlation coefficient between the average annual values of last year’s free agent relief class and those pitchers’ WARs was 0.002 — which is to say, there was no relationship at all between the money spent on big reliever deals and the performance of those relievers."

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/02/11/looking-for-good-bullpen-investment-strategy-there-isn-one/sosV7rupp8ikAI5OuB0KOL/story.html

 

First off, last year was a terrible year for relief free agents to begin with. Then consider that the three best on the market all went to Colorado and you probably have your reasoning as to why none went above the 1.0 WAR line.

 

Relievers, by nature, are volatile. This offseason, you’ve had some of the most consistent and dominant ones hit the market. Not dipping into the market may prove to be the Sox downfall in 2019, especially if the Sox have to spend prospects AND money for relief at the deadline when it could just cost cash now

[Station 13]

So the Sox will be buyers - likely looking for bullpen help. And they will have Kimbrel and try to move him?

 

That might make Kimbrel the best reliever on the market, which means no matter who the Sox acquire, trading Kimbrel weakens the bullpen...

 

I said Kimbrel's hot commodity as a top reliever is very attractive at the deadline if they want to dump his contract. You interpret it as being a seller. Beyond 2019 is pointless to discuss right now.

[Bellhorn04]

That theory also makes it more difficult to keep Betts. I think that is part of the dilemma Dombrowski has with signing Kimbrel’...

 

I think there's plenty of room for Betts regardless.

[notin]

I think there's plenty of room for Betts regardless.

 

 

That depends on how many of Betts, Bogaerts, Martinez and Sale the Sox want to keep. Plus extending Benintendi and filling gaps for departed players...