The Pen

[kenmeister]

So according to Olney, DD has said he’s done with the bullpen . (Is DD to be believed? That’s another thing altogether.)

 

If DD is done, it looks like the Sox have a bullpen with Barnes, Brasier, and Hembree as locks. Johnson is probably a lock, too. Thornburg and Workman are likely. That leaves at least one spot for at least one of Tapia, Brewer, Mejia, Lakins, and Poyner while Wright, Smith and Putnam all probably start the year on the DL...

 

I'd be surprised if Thornburg survives spring training. Happy to be wrong.

 

I'd like Velazquez back on the ML team.

 

Does Wright start on the DL? I thought he was healthy now.

[notin]

Velasquez shouldn’t make the team if every is healthy; he should go to Pawtucket as a sixth starter option.

[cp176]

So is it all significant that Kimbrel is currently spending time working out in Boston? I'm not going to give up hope just yet.

[moonslav59]

I am not shortchanging Koji by any means . I am a big fan of his . His career numbers are not as good as Kimbrel's. Plain and simple.

 

He wasn't a closer, so that hurts when comparing, but to me, the numbers that count the most are WHIP or OPS against and K rate/ BB rate (I like K/BB that covers both) show them very close.

 

In my previous comp, I left off the first years of both and took away Uehara's last year. Here are their full career numbers:

 

You said the rest of Koji's career, he was "good," but I think he was much more than good for a long time (7 years).

 

OPS Against

.485 Kim (.476 Late & Close)

.588 Koji (.566 Late & Close)

 

WHIP

0.890 Koji

0.920 Kim

 

K/BB

7.33 Koji

4.23 Kim

 

K/9

14.7 Kim

10.7 Koji

 

BB/9

1.5 Koji

3.5 Kim

 

ERA+

211 Kim

162 Koji

 

 

Post Season WHIP- K/9

0.833- 10.5

1.258- 2.1

 

Save%

91% Kim (333/372)

84% (95/113) Koji

 

IS%

19% (15/77)

26% (27/105)

 

I think it's closer than it might seem.

 

I have no beef with anyone saying Kimbrel is better, but it's close, and I think Uehara was more than just good outside of 2013.

 

Edited January 31, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Velasquez shouldn’t make the team if every is healthy; he should go to Pawtucket as a sixth starter option.

 

If everyone is healthy, here's my list in order of best chance at making the 12 man pitching staff on opening day. (Options remaining will play a factor.)

 

1. Sale 3

2. Price 2

3. Porcello 0

4. Eovaldi 0

5. Rodriguez 2

6. Barnes 2

7. Wright 0

8. Brasier 2

9. Hembree 0

10. Johnson 0

11. Thornburg 0

12. Workman 0

13. Velazquez 2

14. Poyner 2

15. Walden 1

 

Brewer 2, DHernandez 3, Lakins 3, J Taylor 3, DReyes 3, Shepherd 2

 

[dgalehouse]

He wasn't a closer, so that hurts when comparing, but to me, the numbers that count the most are WHIP or OPS against and K rate/ BB rate (I like K/BB that covers both) show them very close.

 

In my previous comp, I left off the first years of both and took away Uehara's last year. Here are their full career numbers:

 

You said the rest of Koji's career, he was "good," but I think he was much more than good for a long time (7 years).

 

OPS Against

.485 Kim (.476 Late & Close)

.588 Koji (.566 Late & Close)

 

WHIP

0.890 Koji

0.920 Kim

 

K/BB

7.33 Koji

4.23 Kim

 

K/9

14.7 Kim

10.7 Koji

 

BB/9

1.5 Koji

3.5 Kim

 

ERA+

162 Koji

160 Kim

 

Post Season WHIP- K/9

0.833- 10.5

1.258- 2.1

 

Save%

91% Kim (333/372)

84% (95/113) Koji

 

IS%

19% (15/77)

26% (27/105)

 

I think it's closer than it might seem.

 

I have no beef with anyone saying Kimbrel is better, but it's close, and I think Uehara was more than just good outside of 2013.

 

I have a high opinion of both Koji and Kimbrel . The fact is that Kimbrel's career achievements have been better than Koji's . Kimbrel has 333 saves , the youngest to ever reach that total . Koji had 95 saves in his career . Kimbrel is a seven time all star . Koji made one all star team . Koji had a career OPS against of .588 . Kimbrel has a career OPS against of .485 , which is not only better than Koji , but better than anyone else. Koji had a career ERA of 2.66 . Kimbrel has a career ERA of 1.91 , which is not only better than Koji , but better than anyone else. There are a million different stats out there . You can probably find some to use for debate . But none are more important than career ERA . Koji was terrific . Kimbrel has been even better .

[harmony]

Brandon Maurer is off the board:

 

[Kimmi]

I think there are two issues working against Kimbrel.

 

1.) control issues in 2018 that escalated during the playoffs. Stats guys see that as a red flag.

 

2.) ridiculous contract demands.

 

I wonder how much the control issues are affecting our decision to not sign kimbrel?

 

I do not disagree with either of those statements. His BB/9 and HR/9, along with his crazy BABIP of .216 are all causes for concern. I think he can be effective for another year or two, but he is not worth the risk of anything over 3 years. Even 3 years might be pushing one's luck.

[Kimmi]

Closers do get a bit of a rough ride from fans. Maybe that's why they think they should be paid more LOL

 

Who is the best-loved closer in Red Sox history?

 

It's Koji, of course. There may not be any other contenders. Foulke, Papelbon, Kimbrel all fell out of favor with a lot of fans for performance regression.

 

I am a fan of all of the aforementioned closers.

 

I'm just not a fan of signing any of them to big deals.

 

Truth be told, when the Sox re-signed Koji for $18 mil/2 yrs, I winced.

 

That said, with Koji's deal at least it was only for 2 years.

[Jasonbay44]

Closers do get a bit of a rough ride from fans. Maybe that's why they think they should be paid more LOL

 

Who is the best-loved closer in Red Sox history?

 

It's Koji, of course. There may not be any other contenders. Foulke, Papelbon, Kimbrel all fell out of favor with a lot of fans for performance regression.

I think Koji is my favorite. I like most of the guys mentioned, wasn't the biggest Papelbon fan, I thought he was kind of douche, but besides him lol.

[moonslav59]

I have a high opinion of both Koji and Kimbrel . The fact is that Kimbrel's career achievements have been better than Koji's . Kimbrel has 333 saves , the youngest to ever reach that total . Koji had 95 saves in his career . Kimbrel is a seven time all star . Koji made one all star team . Koji had a career OPS against of .588 . Kimbrel has a career OPS against of .485 , which is not only better than Koji , but better than anyone else. Koji had a career ERA of 2.66 . Kimbrel has a career ERA of 1.91 , which is not only better than Koji , but better than anyone else. There are a million different stats out there . You can probably find some to use for debate . But none are more important than career ERA . Koji was terrific . Kimbrel has been even better .

 

Yes, Koji was terrific and for 7 years.

 

I like ERA- and ERA+ rather than ERA, and Koji has a slight edge there, but ERA is not a great stat for RP'ers.

[dgalehouse]

Yes, Koji was terrific and for 7 years.

 

I like ERA- and ERA+ rather than ERA, and Koji has a slight edge there, but ERA is not a great stat for RP'ers.

 

To me , ERA is the ultimate stat for a pitcher. The name of the game for pitchers is to not give up runs . All the other stats just play into that . Anyway , you have to admit , an ERA of 1.91 for a nine year career is pretty special for any pitcher .

Edited January 31, 2019 by dgalehouse

[harmony]

Yes, Koji was terrific and for 7 years.

 

I like ERA- and ERA+ rather than ERA, and Koji has a slight edge there, but ERA is not a great stat for RP'ers.

Trivia: Koji Uehara and current Arizona reliever Yoshihisa Hirano came over to the United States approaching their 34th birthdays.

 

In their first MLB seasons, Uehara pitched 66.2 innings (in 12 starts) with an ERA+ 113 while Hirano pitched 66.1 innings (all in relief) with an ERA+ of 178.

 

Each righthander had pitched 11 seasons in Japan's Pacific League. The 6-foot-2, 195-pound Uehara had an ERA of 3.02 in 1,583.2 innings while the 6-foot-1, 185-pound Hirano had an ERA of 3.10 in 974.2 innings.

 

Hirano is owed $3 million in 2019 and apparently remains under team control for an additional four seasons.

[notin]

To me , ERA is the ultimate stat for a pitcher. The name of the game for pitchers is to not give up runs . All the other stats just play into that . Anyway , you have to admit , an ERA of 1.91 for a nine year career is pretty special for any pitcher .

 

I actually don’t like ERA for relievers, especially closers.

 

If they come in with men on base and those men score, the relievers ERA for that game might still be 0.00. That’s not really representative of the poor job he did.

 

Of course, fWAR isn’t great, either, since nearly all relievers have 2.0 or below with the majority being below 1.0.

 

So I tend to just like WHIP and K/BB...

[notin]

To me , ERA is the ultimate stat for a pitcher. The name of the game for pitchers is to not give up runs . All the other stats just play into that . Anyway , you have to admit , an ERA of 1.91 for a nine year career is pretty special for any pitcher .

 

Also ERA+ and ERA- are better than ERA. A 2.50 ERA in Coors isn’t the same as a 2.50 ERA in Petco. But a 115 ERA+ is the same everywhere...

[dgalehouse]

There are discrepancies in many stats . A reliever ' s career ERA , when compared to other relievers , is still the best measuring stick as far as I am concerned. No system is perfect . WHIP concerns the number of base runners. But those base runners only matter if and when they score . A guy who goes one inning and gives up a single and a walk , then strikes out the side , has an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 2 . A guy who goes one inning and gives up a home run , then strikes out the side , has an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 1 . Which one did a better job ?

[notin]

There are discrepancies in many stats . A reliever ' s career ERA , when compared to other relievers , is still the best measuring stick as far as I am concerned. No system is perfect . WHIP concerns the number of base runners. But those base runners only matter if and when they score . A guy who goes one inning and gives up a single and a walk , then strikes out the side , has an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 2 . A guy who goes one inning and gives up a home run , then strikes out the side , has an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 1 . Which one did a better job ?

 

Obviously the WHIP of 2.00. But which pitcher would you use the next day?

[dgalehouse]

Obviously the WHIP of 2.00. But which pitcher would you use the next day?

 

I would have to check out all the variables first . Wind velocity , wind direction , temperature, relative humidity, beer sales and so forth . The game has become so complicated. I think I need to get out.

[notin]

I would have to check out all the variables first . Wind velocity , wind direction , temperature, relative humidity, beer sales and so forth . The game has become so complicated. I think I need to get out.

 

 

You can’t just answer?

[moonslav59]

To me , ERA is the ultimate stat for a pitcher. The name of the game for pitchers is to not give up runs . All the other stats just play into that . Anyway , you have to admit , an ERA of 1.91 for a nine year career is pretty special for any pitcher .

 

RP'ers are different.

 

1) They sometimes come in with 1 or 2 outs (not so often with Kimbrel). That should automatically lower their ERA;s because the only need to get 1 or 2 outs in the inning.

 

2) ERA- and ERA+ adjusts the ERA based on other factors. It's still all about runs allowed, but it adjusts for factors out of the pitcher's control.

 

ERA- (fangraphs)

47 Kimbrel

57 Uehara

 

ERA+ (baseball reference)

211 Kimbrel

162 Uehara

 

(I had made a mistake in my earlier ERA+ data.)

 

 

[kenmeister]

If everyone is healthy, here's my list in order of best chance at making the 12 man pitching staff on opening day. (Options remaining will play a factor.)

 

1. Sale 3

2. Price 2

3. Porcello 0

4. Eovaldi 0

5. Rodriguez 2

6. Barnes 2

7. Wright 0

8. Brasier 2

9. Hembree 0

10. Johnson 0

11. Thornburg 0

12. Workman 0

13. Velazquez 2

14. Poyner 2

15. Walden 1

 

Brewer 2, DHernandez 3, Lakins 3, J Taylor 3, DReyes 3, Shepherd 2

 

 

Thanks for compiling this list it helps. I agree that Thornburg should be given every chance to show he has something, but if he flames out in Spring Training like I expect him to, Velazquez hopefully makes the team instead. Likewise I think Poyner has a fair chance of outshining Hembree.

 

If Wright is healthy, he could be the reliever everybody has been looking for.

[OH FOY]

Anybody thinking giving up a Run is better then not giving up a run, is an idiot.

[jacksonianmarch]

Here is my take on this. Looking year to year, ERA will fluctuate. Looking over a full career, ERA is the ultimate determinant of effectiveness. The goal is not to allow runs. Those who allowed the least runs are the best guys to have pitching.

[notin]

Anybody thinking giving up a Run is better then not giving up a run, is an idiot.

 

 

Giving up a run and not giving up a run isn’t always the responsibility of the pitcher alone...

[OH FOY]

From that Poster I read 2 Scenarios, I responded to those. 1 is giving up a Run, the other one didn't.

There is nothing to Debate, your a fool, if chose, one that allows the run. and other doesn't.

 

ONLY, thing in Baseball that counts, is RUNS. After 9 innings, there is now WHIP, or ERA, just a score.

Knock yourself out and give one million, different examples.

[moonslav59]

Thanks for compiling this list it helps. I agree that Thornburg should be given every chance to show he has something, but if he flames out in Spring Training like I expect him to, Velazquez hopefully makes the team instead. Likewise I think Poyner has a fair chance of outshining Hembree.

 

If Wright is healthy, he could be the reliever everybody has been looking for.

 

I agree, but even if Poyner looks better than Hembree in ST'ing, we'll go with the out-of-options Hembree to keep all choices within the system.

 

I like Velazquez more than Thornburg, too, but if THornburg can return to just 80-90% of his big year with MIL, we will give him a shot to show he can do it.

 

We may also start someone on the phantom DL, if we really want to add someone below the line to the 25 man roster.

[moonslav59]

Here is my take on this. Looking year to year, ERA will fluctuate. Looking over a full career, ERA is the ultimate determinant of effectiveness. The goal is not to allow runs. Those who allowed the least runs are the best guys to have pitching.

 

So, if a RP'er who only comes in for 1 out has a 1.50 ERA, he's better than a RP'er who almost always comes in for 3 outs (like Kimbrel) and has a 2.00 ERA?

[Bellhorn04]

So, if a RP'er who only comes in for 1 out has a 1.50 ERA, he's better than a RP'er who almost always comes in for 3 outs (like Kimbrel) and has a 2.00 ERA?

 

If the sample size is big enough, the luck will even out to some degree. That guy who only comes in for one batter will also get charged with runs sometimes even though only giving up one baserunner and then departing.

 

But overall I think WHIP, OPSa and K/BB are more important for relievers.

[notin]

From that Poster I read 2 Scenarios, I responded to those. 1 is giving up a Run, the other one didn't.

There is nothing to Debate, your a fool, if chose, one that allows the run. and other doesn't.

 

ONLY, thing in Baseball that counts, is RUNS. After 9 innings, there is now WHIP, or ERA, just a score.

Knock yourself out and give one million, different examples.

 

 

And that has nothing to do deciding what stat is the best one to evaluate a relief pitcher, unless you like hypothetical one inning sample sizes...

[dgalehouse]

From that Poster I read 2 Scenarios, I responded to those. 1 is giving up a Run, the other one didn't.

There is nothing to Debate, your a fool, if chose, one that allows the run. and other doesn't.

 

ONLY, thing in Baseball that counts, is RUNS. After 9 innings, there is now WHIP, or ERA, just a score.

Knock yourself out and give one million, different examples.

 

My point is that games are decided by runs scored , not base runners. Ultimately, the only base runners who matter are the ones who scored . I am not saying that WHIP has no value . Just saying that career ERA is the best method for judging pitchers . All of the little discrepancies will tend to even out over the course of a career . Of course, nothing is going to be perfect .