The Pen

[mvp 78]

You might need to make up your mind here.

 

While no one has questioned the signing of Pearce over a reliever more than me, you were predicting he’d be worth a much higher AAV on a multi year deal.

 

And it still leaves other options. If, as you’re suggesting, Chavis can replace Pearce, you are in effect saying Chavis should produce equal to a multi year higher AAV contract player. Doesn’t that mean Chavis should have significant trade value? Maybe enough to trade for a reliever?

 

Also, CHAVIS HAS ONLY PLAYED 12 GAMES AT 1B. We don't really know what he can do at this point.

[notin]

Also, CHAVIS HAS ONLY PLAYED 12 GAMES AT 1B. We don't really know what he can do at this point.

 

Least of my concerns.

 

If a player is going to start a new position,1b is probably the easiest one to learn. Probably about half of the starting first basemen in MLB played another position in the minors and in many cases, in the majors as well...

[mvp 78]

Least of my concerns.

 

If a player is going to start a new position,1b is probably the easiest one to learn. Probably about half of the starting first basemen in MLB played another position in the minors and in many cases, in the majors as well...

 

My point is that it's dumb to say you shouldn't sign Pierce because you have Chavis in the system.

 

I guess Jacko doesn't want to sign anymore FA's since the Yankees farm system is so strong then?

[moonslav59]

Also, CHAVIS HAS ONLY PLAYED 12 GAMES AT 1B. We don't really know what he can do at this point.

 

My guess is he'd be fine, but certainly it's not a good idea to start the year with him as our platoon 1Bman.

 

As an aside, we did play Bogey at 3B after only 10 games there in AAA.

[mvp 78]

My guess is he'd be fine, but certainly it's not a good idea to start the year with him as our platoon 1Bman.

 

As an aside, we did play Bogey at 3B after only 10 games there in AAA.

 

Not one of Ben/Farrell's finer decisions.

[notin]

Not one of Ben/Farrell's finer decisions.

 

To be fair, the other option was Middlebrooks...

[moonslav59]

Not one of Ben/Farrell's finer decisions.

 

Well, it worked and we won a ring that year (2013).

 

Back then, I was in favor of keeping Iggy and having Bogey play 3B almost FT, but I was miffed by just 10 games of practice at 3B.

[Slasher9]

The Yanks have improved coming into this season. If the sox are as currently constituted, could you honestly tell yourself the same thing about your squad?

 

have they improved by 8 games?

actually let's call it 15 games since we coasted the entire month of September. did the yankees improve by 15 games?

 

2018 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox

[Slasher9]

It is going to be a dogfight. But the sox and yankees are going to use their pen about the same in terms of IP. Last year the sox got 10 more innings out of their rotation. The sox have Eovaldi for the whole year, we have Happ and Paxton for the whole year. I expect about the same workload team to team. Provided that, you take Kimbrel and Kelly away from your pen, you remove Robertson and add Ottavino and a full, healthy (presumably) year from Britton to ours. How is that not a plus to our advantage? Also, yes, the sox have the best pitcher on either team in Sale. That works well in the post season (except for Sale's penchant for being spent by October) but in the regular season, the #5 slot is as important than the #1 in theory. Our 1-5 is far more proven and actually did better than the sox did last year. Can it be replicated? I don't know, but I anticipate the yankees entire staff should outperform the sox' staff and with the back end of the pen wide open, I see a bunch of crushing late inning losses coming. The 2019 sox are worse than the 2018 sox. The 2019 Yanks are better than the 2018 Yanks

 

it was supposed to be a dog fight last year. and the year before. and the year before that.

it wasn't.

[mvp 78]

it was supposed to be a dog fight last year. and the year before. and the year before that.

it wasn't.

 

I'm looking forward to this year's Jacko thread where he'll use 50,000 words to state how the Yankees are better at every position than the Sox again this year.

[Kimmi]

It is going to be a dogfight. But the sox and yankees are going to use their pen about the same in terms of IP. Last year the sox got 10 more innings out of their rotation. The sox have Eovaldi for the whole year, we have Happ and Paxton for the whole year. I expect about the same workload team to team. Provided that, you take Kimbrel and Kelly away from your pen, you remove Robertson and add Ottavino and a full, healthy (presumably) year from Britton to ours. How is that not a plus to our advantage? Also, yes, the sox have the best pitcher on either team in Sale. That works well in the post season (except for Sale's penchant for being spent by October) but in the regular season, the #5 slot is as important than the #1 in theory. Our 1-5 is far more proven and actually did better than the sox did last year. Can it be replicated? I don't know, but I anticipate the yankees entire staff should outperform the sox' staff and with the back end of the pen wide open, I see a bunch of crushing late inning losses coming. The 2019 sox are worse than the 2018 sox. The 2019 Yanks are better than the 2018 Yanks

 

I agree that the 2019 Yankees are better than the 2018 Yankees. I'm not sure that I agree about the 2019 Sox being worse than last year's version. Either way, is the difference enough to make up the 4 games according to our Pythagorean W-L records?

 

Maybe you closed the gap some. Maybe you evened up the score, though I don't think so. But you did not surpass us. The Red Sox still remain the team to beat.

[Kimmi]

Not one of Ben/Farrell's finer decisions.

 

I think it was a fine decision.

[Kimmi]

have they improved by 8 games?

actually let's call it 15 games since we coasted the entire month of September. did the yankees improve by 15 games?

 

2018 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox

 

That's all that needs to be said.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree that the 2019 Yankees are better than the 2018 Yankees. I'm not sure that I agree about the 2019 Sox being worse than last year's version. Either way, is the difference enough to make up the 4 games according to our Pythagorean W-L records?

 

Maybe you closed the gap some. Maybe you evened up the score, though I don't think so. But you did not surpass us. The Red Sox still remain the team to beat.

 

How do you not think the sox are worse? You returned everyone you had at the end of the year except Kimbrel and Kelly. You have nobody ready in the minors to bust out. Your team, on the whole, achieved as expected or exceeded expectations. Your 2019 starts with Chris Sale as an injury concern. And any time a team wins 108 games, one has to assume just due to the natural order of things, there will be a dropoff. So going by the lack of a real down year, pre season health questions, loss of your best reliever plus another and the ebb and flow of season to season performance, how can you not say the sox are worse?

[moonslav59]

How do you not think the sox are worse? You returned everyone you had at the end of the year except Kimbrel and Kelly. You have nobody ready in the minors to bust out. Your team, on the whole, achieved as expected or exceeded expectations. Your 2019 starts with Chris Sale as an injury concern. And any time a team wins 108 games, one has to assume just due to the natural order of things, there will be a dropoff. So going by the lack of a real down year, pre season health questions, loss of your best reliever plus another and the ebb and flow of season to season performance, how can you not say the sox are worse?

 

Sale says he's fine. I find it funny you won't let go of Sale's health concerns while downplaying Paxton's lack of big inning seasons.

 

You want to compare our playoffs team to the team we have to start the 2019 season, but then speak of 108 wins like we got those wins with the current team.

 

We won a ton of games before we got Eovaldi & Pearce. We won a ton of games while Sale was on the shelf. We breezed through the playoffs basically without Sale and an extremely shaky Kimbrel.

 

Be consistent with your comps.

 

If we might be worse off because Sale might be like he was in October of 2018, then why not then claim we'll be better off without Kimbrel, because he sucked in October of 2018.

 

4 more months of Eovaldi & Pearce could very well make up for the loss of CK & JK.

 

We might get more starts from Sale & ERod and more good appearances from Brasier.

 

We might get something from Thornburg.

 

We might not.

 

The Yanks might miss Didi. The Yanks may see a swoon from Voit. Yes, you had injuries last year, too and expecting more from Sanchez and Judge is reasonable, but we saw Betts, Bogey, Devers and others miss time and Pedey miss a whole season.

 

We have a lot of hope for being as good as last year. 108 games good is hard to repeat, for sure, but to me, we look better now than we did last February. (So do the Yanks.)

[harmony]

Reliever Sergio Romo reportedly is close to signing a one-year deal with unidentified club:

 

[notin]

Reliever Sergio Romo reportedly is close to signing a one-year deal with unidentified club:

 

 

MLBTR covered this. I suspect it’s Atlanta, but Boston is certainly a candidate. Either way, it’s bad news for one Craig Kimbrel...

[Bellhorn04]

MLBTR covered this. I suspect it’s Atlanta, but Boston is certainly a candidate. Either way, it’s bad news for one Craig Kimbrel...

 

It's about time Craig's agent put out the word that he's only seeking 'Eovaldi money'...

[TylerD]

It's about time Craig's agent put out the word that he's only seeking 'Eovaldi money'...

 

The playoffs is one thing that will hurt Kimbrel for getting the money he wants. Put up some damn good numbers in regular season, but many organizations and coaches will see his failure in the playoffs and won't want to risk giving him that kind of money.... Then again.... Stranger things have happened. Teams really want a reliable closer I guess.

[Kimmi]

How do you not think the sox are worse? You returned everyone you had at the end of the year except Kimbrel and Kelly. You have nobody ready in the minors to bust out. Your team, on the whole, achieved as expected or exceeded expectations. Your 2019 starts with Chris Sale as an injury concern. And any time a team wins 108 games, one has to assume just due to the natural order of things, there will be a dropoff. So going by the lack of a real down year, pre season health questions, loss of your best reliever plus another and the ebb and flow of season to season performance, how can you not say the sox are worse?

 

Obviously, health and injuries will play a role in how good the Sox are. But assuming reasonably good health, I don't think the Sox are any worse than last year's team.

 

I just don't see the loss of Kimbrel and Kelly as being as big a deal as you think it is. Whatever loss we do get from losing Kimbrel and Kelly is made up by having Eovaldi for a full season over Pomeranz and the string of other 5th starters that we had, who collectively, gave the team a whopping 0.2 fWAR.

[notin]

Reliever Sergio Romo reportedly is close to signing a one-year deal with unidentified club:

 

 

 

I am starting to wonder what “close to signing” really means. Are the two sides even close to an agreement? Or are they just struggling to find a pen?

[notin]

The playoffs is one thing that will hurt Kimbrel for getting the money he wants. Put up some damn good numbers in regular season, but many organizations and coaches will see his failure in the playoffs and won't want to risk giving him that kind of money.... Then again.... Stranger things have happened. Teams really want a reliable closer I guess.

 

Kimbrel’s second half was worse than his postseason, made from a bigger sample, and probably a bigger issue on his signability...

[moonslav59]

Kimbrel’s second half was worse than his postseason, made from a bigger sample, and probably a bigger issue on his signability...

 

His second half numbers were only 21.1 IP (4.59/1.20), but your point is still a good one.

 

If you split his IP in half and then take the second half, his numbers are...

OPS Against/ ERA

 

.589 1st half 2.32

 

.539 2nd half 3.16

 

Last 20.2 IP

4.79 ERA

.625 OPS

 

Post Season 10.2 IP

5.91 ERA

 

Last 31.1 IP (July 23- end of playoffs)

5.17 ERA

 

 

 

[TylerD]

Kimbrel’s second half was worse than his postseason, made from a bigger sample, and probably a bigger issue on his signability...

 

Good point!

[TylerD]

His second half numbers were only 21.1 IP (4.59/1.20), but your point is still a good one.

 

If you split his IP in half and then take the second half, his numbers are...

OPS Against/ ERA

 

.589 1st half 2.32

 

.539 2nd half 3.16

 

Last 20.2 IP

4.79 ERA

.625 OPS

 

Post Season 10.2 IP

5.91 ERA

 

Last 31.1 IP (July 23- end of playoffs)

5.17 ERA

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the stats!

 

Though regular season is important I agree. Playoffs is a huge concern. If you're team qualifies for the playoffs you need to have nearly 100% trust in your closer. You are battling the best of the best teams, and generally the games you play in the playoffs will for the most part be close or come down to a run or 2. I honestly can't say I trusted Kimbrel what so ever come World Series after his performance against the Yanks and Astros. I know maybe I am being a little hard on the guy, but I remember this entire board acting the same way every time he was called out to play in the playoffs. My heart still hurts. He was just lucky enough that the Sox were so good we overcame his bad play that nearly cost us some games.

[BillyWilliams]

Obviously, health and injuries will play a role in how good the Sox are. But assuming reasonably good health, I don't think the Sox are any worse than last year's team.

 

I just don't see the loss of Kimbrel and Kelly as being as big a deal as you think it is. Whatever loss we do get from losing Kimbrel and Kelly is made up by having Eovaldi for a full season over Pomeranz and the string of other 5th starters that we had, who collectively, gave the team a whopping 0.2 fWAR.

 

Maybe, but maybe not. Both started their careers in 2011 and pom has accumulated 1.5 more WAR despite pitching less innings. They do have pretty much an identical career WHIP.

[dgalehouse]

Thanks for the stats!

 

Though regular season is important I agree. Playoffs is a huge concern. If you're team qualifies for the playoffs you need to have nearly 100% trust in your closer. You are battling the best of the best teams, and generally the games you play in the playoffs will for the most part be close or come down to a run or 2. I honestly can't say I trusted Kimbrel what so ever come World Series after his performance against the Yanks and Astros. I know maybe I am being a little hard on the guy, but I remember this entire board acting the same way every time he was called out to play in the playoffs. My heart still hurts. He was just lucky enough that the Sox were so good we overcame his bad play that nearly cost us some games.

 

Mookie Betts hit .188 in the ALDS , .217 in the ALCS and .217 in the World Series . However , I am not the least bit worried about him . He is one of the two best players in the game . Craig Kimbrel is a seven time all star . He has the lowest career ERA , batting average against and OPS against of anyone in the business. Not too worried about him either . On the other hand , what we have left in our bullpen does worry me a bit .

[Kimmi]

Maybe, but maybe not. Both started their careers in 2011 and pom has accumulated 1.5 more WAR despite pitching less innings. They do have pretty much an identical career WHIP.

 

It's possible that Pom out pitches Eovaldi this season (though peripheral numbers suggest otherwise), but the issue is not which one of those guys has a better season. Our starters not named Sale, Price, Porcello, or Rodriguez, combined for a WAR of 0.2 (with Pom coming in at -0.3). I am confident that Eovaldi is going to be decent improvement over that.

[FredLynn]

Mookie Betts hit .188 in the ALDS , .217 in the ALCS and .217 in the World Series . However , I am not the least bit worried about him . He is one of the two best players in the game . Craig Kimbrel is a seven time all star . He has the lowest career ERA , batting average against and OPS against of anyone in the business. Not too worried about him either . On the other hand , what we have left in our bullpen does worry me a bit .

 

I am certainly not worried about Betts. And I am not really worried about the pen yet either because I think RPers are a crapshoot. You never know from year to year who will perform, generally, and who will not. Who would have thought that Brasier would have the year he had? Also, I don't think the pen is complete yet. DD still has a trick or two up his sleeve IMO.

[dgalehouse]

I am certainly not worried about Betts. And I am not really worried about the pen yet either because I think RPers are a crapshoot. You never know from year to year who will perform, generally, and who will not. Who would have thought that Brasier would have the year he had? Also, I don't think the pen is complete yet. DD still has a trick or two up his sleeve IMO.

 

Nobody should be worried about Mookie. I don't think anyone is . I was just pointing out the folly of small sample sizes . And the ever present hypocrisy . And the idea of relievers being a crapshoot is a popular misconception. . Some are very consistent. Just like starters . Or anybody else .