A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not really against this move, but it's not a choice between Eovaldi and nothing. We could sign or trade for players who are cheaper or shorter term, and still be highly favored in 2019 AND better positioned in 2020 and 2021 to keep other stars.

 

And maybe Eovaldi will be a star.

[Bellhorn04]

I have a feeling the Sox are very interested in Herrera for the pen. Strictly a hunch.

[notin]

I have a feeling the Sox are very interested in Herrera for the pen. Strictly a hunch.

 

Like with Cervelli, I imagine he’ll have be moving forward with numerous options, most of which will cancel each other out as the chips land. Sign Familia? Maybe no more Herrera or Robertson. That kind of stuff...

[kenmeister]

And maybe Eovaldi will be a star.

 

There are a fair number of star pitchers who finally "figured it out" around age 29. I agree, I do think Eovaldi may be one of those guys. He certainly has the stuff. I think the concern is more health-related than concerns about mediocrity.

[Nick]

I'm not really against this move, but it's not a choice between Eovaldi and nothing. We could sign or trade for players who are cheaper or shorter term, and still be highly favored in 2019 AND better positioned in 2020 and 2021 to keep other stars.

 

This is where you and I disagree. Signing Eovaldi will serve two purposes. One, it will elevate our success chance for 2019 and more importantly in the playoffs. If I recall, aren't you always advocating acquiring top tier talent for SP as opposed to a fifth starter?

 

Secondly, it will mitigate urgency for signing both Sale and Porcello after the 2019 season. My guess is it will take close to $20M 'delta' to sign both Sale and Porcello. Eovladi money can be thought of as coming from anticipated salary increase for Sale in 2020. (say a bump from $15M to $33M). It's possible Eovaldi may come close to Price's talent. As much as I want Price, 4-years for Eovaldi may be less riskier than going say 6 years, $200M for Sale.

 

In essence, Eovaldi is taking money from Pearce/Moreland/Nunez for 2020. Between Sandoval, Sale and Porcello, that's another $45M to pay for arbitration raises. If JD and his $22M opts out, we can reset after 2019 and and will have enough money to sign Betts and JBJ.

Edited December 6, 2018 by Nick

[cp176]

Signing any starting pitcher or maybe even any pitcher today comes with a risk. Lots of things can happen to them regardless of their health status when you sign them. Is their a risk in signing Eovaldi and his rebuilt arm? of course. The but for me is do you sign someone like him who if he continues to be healthy could be very very good or do you go cheaper and pay for mediocrity? since there is always going to be a risk, I'm in favor of going big and signing him.

[mvp 78]

This is where you and I disagree. Signing Eovaldi will serve two purposes. One, it will elevate our success chance for 2019 and more importantly in the playoffs. If I recall, aren't you always advocating acquiring top tier talent for SP as opposed to a fifth starter?

 

Secondly, it will mitigate urgency for signing both Price and Porcello after the 2019 season. My guess is it will take close to $20M 'delta' to sign both Price and Porcello. Eovladi money can be thought of as coming from anticipated salary increase for Sale in 2020. (say a bump from $15M to $33M). It's possible Eovaldi may come close to Price's talent. As much as I want Price, 4-years for Eovaldi may be less riskier than going say 6 years, $200M for Sale.

 

Good news is that the Sox won't have to worry about re-signing Price until November 2022.

[mvp 78]

Since this "cliff" seems to be inevitable I'd rather see them go all in for Eovaldi and make a solid run in 2019 than start a slide in 2019 that slides over the cliff in 2020.

 

You keep saying this like it's a thing. It's not.

[notin]

Signing any starting pitcher or maybe even any pitcher today comes with a risk. Lots of things can happen to them regardless of their health status when you sign them. Is their a risk in signing Eovaldi and his rebuilt arm? of course. The but for me is do you sign someone like him who if he continues to be healthy could be very very good or do you go cheaper and pay for mediocrity? since there is always going to be a risk, I'm in favor of going big and signing him.

 

Would you sign Eovaldi over Keuchel if the money was close?

 

Keuchel has a better track record, a Cy Young award, and a much, much better health history and is only 2 years older. His only drawback seems to be that he is left-handed. He might require 5 or 6 years, but that is TBD.

[Nick]

Good news is that the Sox won't have to worry about re-signing Price until November 2022.

 

You probably knew that I meant Sale. Corrected.

[notin]

Good news is that the Sox won't have to worry about re-signing Price until November 2022.

 

 

Well it’s not like he said how long after the 2019 season...

[cp176]

You keep saying this like it's a thing. It's not.

 

I agree with you but I can't counter the deluge of support that emphasizes the "cliff" being at our doorstep.

[mvp 78]

@Ken_Rosenthal

 

Free-agent RHP Nathan Eovaldi in agreement with #RedSox, pending physical, sources tell The Athletic.

[mvp 78]

I agree with you but I can't counter the deluge of support that emphasizes the "cliff" being at our doorstep.

 

It's a doomsday cult.

[cp176]

Would you sign Eovaldi over Keuchel if the money was close?

 

Keuchel has a better track record, a Cy Young award, and a much, much better health history and is only 2 years older. His only drawback seems to be that he is left-handed. He might require 5 or 6 years, but that is TBD.

 

Kind of a moot point now I guess but a good question none the less. If you could get him for the same money, the same number of years and I couldn't get them both (lol), I am conservative - I do like what Keuchel has done to date. Kind of looks like a safer bet to me but it is very unlikely that he winds up signing for 4 and 70 don't you think? One of the attractions with Eovaldi also is that if the role of a starter doesn't work out, yup as much as I don't want to see it, He could potentially be an outstanding closer Can I have them both?

[moonslav59]

Red Sox To Re-Sign Nathan Eovaldi

By Jeff Todd | December 6, 2018 at 8:53am CDT (MLBTR)

The Red Sox have struck a deal to bring back righty Nathan Eovaldi, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Terms of the agreement, which is pending a physical, have yet to be reported. Eovaldi is a client of ACES.

[moonslav59]

Kind of a moot point now I guess but a good question none the less. If you could get him for the same money, the same number of years and I couldn't get them both (lol), I am conservative - I do like what Keuchel has done to date. Kind of looks like a safer bet to me but it is very unlikely that he winds up signing for 4 and 70 don't you think? One of the attractions with Eovaldi also is that if the role of a starter doesn't work out, yup as much as I don't want to see it, He could potentially be an outstanding closer Can I have them both?

 

Good points. I think we will try our hardest to keep him starting, but if Wright is healthy and looking good, it may be an interesting decision to make.

 

I can't see Wright as a closer, but he might be a good long man or set-up man. (We'd still need a closer.)

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

Eovaldi hasn’t even yet turned 29 and sustained an average heater of over 97 mph last year. While he was a bit homer-prone during his time to open the season with the Rays, which hurt his outcomes even as he otherwise showed compelling stuff, the seven-year MLB vet was excellent down the stretch in 2018. He ultimately tossed 54 regular season frames of 3.33 ERA ball with 8.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 for the Sox. Over the course of the full campaign, Eovaldi’s swinging-strike rate surged to a career-high 10.7% while he turned in a sturdy 45.6% groundball rate that sat just under his personal mean.

 

No doubt that late run boosted Eovaldi’s stock, but it was his postseason showing that cemented his status as a top free agent arm. Eovaldi ended up turning in 22 1/3 frames over the team’s three series. He was excellent every time he took the ball, whether as a starter, late-inning reliever, or long man. Eovaldi ended up permitting just four earned runs on 15 hits and three walks while racking up 16 strikeouts.

[Nick]

MLBTR...

 

Eovaldi hasn’t even yet turned 29 and sustained an average heater of over 97 mph last year. While he was a bit homer-prone during his time to open the season with the Rays, which hurt his outcomes even as he otherwise showed compelling stuff, the seven-year MLB vet was excellent down the stretch in 2018. He ultimately tossed 54 regular season frames of 3.33 ERA ball with 8.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 for the Sox. Over the course of the full campaign, Eovaldi’s swinging-strike rate surged to a career-high 10.7% while he turned in a sturdy 45.6% groundball rate that sat just under his personal mean.

 

No doubt that late run boosted Eovaldi’s stock, but it was his postseason showing that cemented his status as a top free agent arm. Eovaldi ended up turning in 22 1/3 frames over the team’s three series. He was excellent every time he took the ball, whether as a starter, late-inning reliever, or long man. Eovaldi ended up permitting just four earned runs on 15 hits and three walks while racking up 16 strikeouts.

 

Now the focus should be on winning the Division. We have the horses to compete in the playoffs.

 

Can Brasier/Barnes fill the closer role? At least until July trade deadline?

 

This is fun.

[Nick]

Nathan Freakin' Eovaldi!

[Bellhorn04]

Nathan Freakin' Eovaldi!

 

Ha - nicely done.

[Station 13]

Nathan Freakin' Eovaldi!

 

Hot Dog we sign Nathan!

[Nick]

Moon, we're now at $240M in CB Payroll. Our mystical budget is $246M. Can we get a decent closer for $12M? That lst $6M will cost us $10.5M total, (surtax of 75%). I don't think that's way out of line.

 

Kudos to Henry for going after another title. Good to be a Sox fan.

Edited December 6, 2018 by Nick

[Nick]

Ha - nicely done.

 

I think Moon has the copy right on THAT.

[Bellhorn04]

Kudos to Henry for going after another title. Good to be a Sox fan.

 

And this shows more than just going after another title. Eovaldi will be on the 2020-2022 teams too, God willing.

[SoxnCycles]

I am sure Dave will go 4 years. I wouldn't, but Dave will.

 

Looks like he did.

[moonslav59]

And this shows more than just going after another title. Eovaldi will be on the 2020-2022 teams too, God willing.

 

He being here may mean someone else isn't.

[Nick]

He being here may mean someone else isn't.

 

Be Happy Moon. This has been a great off season. I want to feel this way next Christmas.

[moonslav59]

Be Happy Moon. This has been a great off season. I want to feel this way next Christmas.

 

I'm thrilled.

 

I think some people seem to think I fret about our future every minute of the day. I don't.

 

I love how DD has run the team. I love where we are for the next 2 years. We've had 3 good years and a ring with 2 more great chances for another ring.

 

That's a tremendously long window DD built, with some help from Ben's farm, I might add.

 

I'm perfectly okay with a year or two rebuild starting 3 years from now. I'm not down at all.

 

Merry Christmas & a Happy TWO Years!

[oldtimer]

He being here may mean someone else isn't.

 

Good point. We still need an arm for the BP. It makes talk about catching a pipe dream. We may drop a player but who would it be? Thornburn? Not enough there to give us leeway and takes away from our main need.