A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Either way, Allen is a better prospect than every pitching prospect in the Sox farm system right now. Every. Single. One. Hard to support that he knew who to keep and who to trade when that is true.

 

Not really, when you consider that our pitching prospects generally either stink or something bad happens to them (like Groome).

 

Kidding. Well, half kidding...sort of...

[Fisk]

I saw an article by him from September that had Allen #7 overall, which I found surprising. Either way, if the Sox kept Allen, he would very likely be #1 in the Sox system, unless he was headed for the MLB rotation...

 

I agree he would be number 1 no disputing that. He was considered the throw in for the Kimbrel trade after having just been drafted, his biggest mistake to me in the prospect trades. Right now I have no qualms on any of those trades.

[Fisk]

Either way, Allen is a better prospect than every pitching prospect in the Sox farm system right now. Every. Single. One. Hard to support that he knew who to keep and who to trade when that is true.

 

Dombrowski really isn’t known for minor league talent evaluation. He is known for emptying farm systems to acquire MLB talent. He did that in Florida, Detroit, and Boston. Interestingly, he then tried the reverse inFlorida and traded away his players to refill the farm, and it didn’t work so well. (Granted, That was 15 years ago.)

 

He didn’t keep the right prospects and deal away the bad ones in Boston. He traded away nearly the entire top layer of the farm system, made mid-season deals only using unranked reach prospects, and made some truly bizarre moves involving keeping/releasing players on the 40man roster.

 

You can like Dombrowski as a GM and like what he has done for this team and still acknowledge that many of the players he traded away will be good...

Do you realize Dombrowski’s history he built the powerhouse Expos farm system from the mid 90’s. He built the Marlins championship team in 97 in 4 years. forced to strip that team down he was the architect of the 03 championship Marlins.

Then took over one of the worst teams in history the early 2000 tigers and made them a very good team. There is no doubting his talent evaluation.

[dgalehouse]

Some have a strange and undying love for Ben Cherington. They think that if he was still in charge, the team would have had the same success. And the farm would be lush with prospects. Pure speculation . Here is the reality: Ben was the man for four years. One championship and three last place teams . Dombrowski has been at the helm for three years . One championship and an unprecedented three straight A.L. East titles. Spin it any way you want . It doesn't change the reality.

[Fisk]

Some have a strange and undying love for Ben Cherington. They think that if he was still in charge, the team would have had the same success. And the farm would be lush with prospects. Pure speculation . Here is the reality: Ben was the man for four years. One championship and three last place teams . Dombrowski has been at the helm for three years . One championship and an unprecedented three straight A.L. East titles. Spin it any way you want . It doesn't change the reality.

 

Ben did a great job with the farm have to give him that, but to discredit DD’s history and ability to evaluate talent is just ludicrous.

[moonslav59]

Well if you call that logic and not being snarky you are being an idiot. Try not being condescending your knowledge is no greater then mine.

 

It's not about who is smarter. I've mentioned how DD seems to make his best deals mid season or under the radar deals, so that is a reason to argue not to make the deal now. I get that about your point, but we do have other pitchers like Shawaryn that we could trade next July, and hopefully DD can find another starter like Eovaldi.

 

I'm sorry for coming across as condescending, but the idiocy comment was worse, IMO.

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski doesn't win in 2018 without the foundation set by Ben and Theo.

 

Theo doesn't win in 2004 without the foundation set by Duquette.

 

Ben doesn't win in 2013 without the foundation set by Theo.

 

The statements are all true. But does that diminish the accomplishments?

 

I don't think sharing the glory diminishes anything.

 

One could think of it this way: the amount Theo's glory is diminished by Douquette, he gains back by helping Ben's glory for 2013, and so on.

 

It remains to be seen what DD leaves the next GM, but that could be a long way off.

[Fisk]

It's not about who is smarter. I've mentioned how DD seems to make his best deals mid season or under the radar deals, so that is a reason to argue not to make the deal now. I get that about your point, but we do have other pitchers like Shawaryn that we could trade next July, and hopefully DD can find another starter like Eovaldi.

 

I'm sorry for coming across as condescending, but the idiocy comment was worse, IMO.

 

My idiocy comment was because of your snarky comment

[Nick]

Looking at our window.

 

SP Price 2019-2020-2021-2022

SP Eovaldi 2019-2020-2021-2022

SP E Rod 2019-2020-2021

SP Sale 2019

SP Porcello 2019

SP Wright 2019-2020

SP Johnson 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023

SP Hector 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023

C Vazquez 2019-2020-2021

1B Platoon 2019

2B Pedroia 2019-2020-2021

3B Devers 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023

SS Xander 2019

LF Beni 2019-2020-2021-2022

CF JBJ 2019-2020

RF Betts 2019-2020

DH Martinez 2019

Closer

RP Brasier 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023

RP Barnes 2019-2020-2021

RP Workman 2019-2020

RP Poyner 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023-2024

RP Scott 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023

[moonslav59]

My idiocy comment was because of your snarky comment

 

It wasn't snarky- maybe a little condescending, which was unintentional, as I have made the point several times that we should just put off some signings and wait for DD to work his midseason magic as a legitimate strategy.... like the Eovalid and Pearce deals... like the Nunez and Reed deals in 2017...

[Bellhorn04]

Looking at our window.

 

SP Price 2019-2020-2021-2022

SP Eovaldi 2019-2020-2021-2022

SP E Rod 2019-2020-2021

SP Sale 2019

SP Porcello 2019

SP Wright 2019-2020

SP Johnson 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023

SP Hector 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023

C Vazquez 2019-2020-2021

1B Platoon 2019

2B Pedroia 2019-2020-2021

3B Devers 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023

SS Xander 2019

LF Beni 2019-2020-2021-2022

CF JBJ 2019-2020

RF Betts 2019-2020

DH Martinez 2019

Closer

RP Brasier 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023

RP Barnes 2019-2020-2021

RP Workman 2019-2020

RP Poyner 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023-2024

RP Scott 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023

 

Nice job!

[moonslav59]

Looking at our window.

 

SP Price 2019-2020-2021-2022

SP Eovaldi 2019-2020-2021-2022

SP E Rod 2019-2020-2021

SP Sale 2019

SP Porcello 2019

SP Wright 2019-2020

SP Johnson 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023

SP Hector 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023

C Vazquez 2019-2020-2021

1B Platoon 2019

2B Pedroia 2019-2020-2021

3B Devers 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023

SS Xander 2019

LF Beni 2019-2020-2021-2022

CF JBJ 2019-2020

RF Betts 2019-2020

DH Martinez 2019

Closer

RP Brasier 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023

RP Barnes 2019-2020-2021

RP Workman 2019-2020

RP Poyner 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023-2024

RP Scott 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023

 

The Pablo contract expiring can not cover all the rising costs of arbs and raises needed to keep our core intact.

 

What will it cost to re-sign or replace in kind these free agents to be?

 

After 2019

Sale $15M>$30M+

Porcello $21M> $24M+

JD $22M>$24M+

Bogaerts> ~$11M> $24M+

Pearce/Moreland> $13M> ??? (Chavis/Dalbec/Ockimey)

Maybe the RP'er we sign to a 1 yr deal> ???

 

After 2020

Betts

JBJ

Wright

Workman

Maybe a RP'er we sign to a 2 year deal

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

The Pablo contract expiring can not cover all the rising costs of arbs and raises needed to keep our core intact.

 

What will it cost to re-sign or replace in kind these free agents to be?

 

After 2019

Sale $15M>$30M+

Porcello $21M> $24M+

JD $22M>$24M+

Bogaerts> ~$11M> $24M+

Pearce/Moreland> $13M> ??? (Chavis/Dalbec/Ockimey)

Maybe the RP'er we sign to a 1 yr deal> ???

 

After 2020

Betts

JBJ

Wright

Workman

Maybe a RP'er we sign to a 2 year deal

 

 

 

 

Maybe we can hope Chavis and Dalbec can replace Pearce & Moreland. That $13M saving can pay Bogey's raise.

 

Pablo's contract pays the arb raises.

 

Incremental raises to JD and Porcello can keep us even.

 

That leaves Sale's $15M raise.

 

This is also assuming we stay even with 2019's budget.

 

If we re-set the budget, several top players have to go in order to shed $40-50M from the 2019 budget.

 

My guess is we wait until after 2020 to reset, but who knows?

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe we can hope Chavis and Dalbec can replace Pearce & Moreland. That $13M saving can pay Bogey's raise.

 

Pablo's contract pays the arb raises.

 

Incremental raises to JD and Porcello can keep us even.

 

That leaves Sale's $15M raise.

 

This is also assuming we stay even with 2019's budget.

 

If we re-set the budget, several top players have to go in order to shed $40-50M from the 2019 budget.

 

My guess is we wait until after 2020 to reset, but who knows?

 

One way to approach the 2021 conundrum:

 

Take the guys who are under team control in 2021 as per Nick's list above.

Assume we keep Mookie (which I really think we will).

Assume the other guys-Sale/Porcello/XB/JBJ are GONE.

See what you have and the payroll numbers and how we might be able to fill the gaps.

[Fisk]

Maybe we can hope Chavis and Dalbec can replace Pearce & Moreland. That $13M saving can pay Bogey's raise.

 

Pablo's contract pays the arb raises.

 

Incremental raises to JD and Porcello can keep us even.

 

That leaves Sale's $15M raise.

 

This is also assuming we stay even with 2019's budget.

 

If we re-set the budget, several top players have to go in order to shed $40-50M from the 2019 budget.

 

My guess is we wait until after 2020 to reset, but who knows?

 

I’m curious how far they will go over the tax and if resetting is really an issue. They will not be able to reset after next season and remain as competitive.

[moonslav59]

One way to approach the 2021 conundrum:

 

Take the guys who are under team control in 2021 as per Nick's list above.

Assume we keep Mookie (which I really think we will).

Assume the other guys-Sale/Porcello/XB/JBJ are GONE.

See what you have and the payroll numbers and how we might be able to fill the gaps.

 

Any way you look at it, if we reset the tax after 2019, 2020 or 2021, even if we stay just $1 under for just 1 year, I can't see how we remain very competitive for at least that one year (Betts or no Betts).

[moonslav59]

I’m curious how far they will go over the tax and if resetting is really an issue. They will not be able to reset after next season and remain as competitive.

 

We will be very close to the $40M over line in 2019, and that's with just spending very little from now through next summer. I'm not sure if we really went over $40M this year, but we will find out at some point, when the official numbers come out.

 

I can't really see us going over $40M 3-4 years in a row, but who know. If it's only by a little, the tax and penalties are not that much more than going over by $39.9M every year.

[Fisk]

We will be very close to the $40M over line in 2019, and that's with just spending very little from now through next summer. I'm not sure if we really went over $40M this year, but we will find out at some point, when the official numbers come out.

 

I can't really see us going over $40M 3-4 years in a row, but who know. If it's only by a little, the tax and penalties are not that much more than going over by $39.9M every year.

 

I don’t think the tax is the issue it’s the draft pick penalty, and if it’s only moving back 10 spots don’t think it’s much of an issue. Don’t think there’s any international restrictions unless we sign a free agent with a qualifying offer.

[dgalehouse]

The way I see it John Henry will let Dombrowski know just what the budgetary limitations are . Dombrowski will then endeavor to assemble the best roster possible , looking for quality. They both would love to repeat , but neither is stupid enough to think that we can spend wildly now and then not be able to sign Mookie in the future . I am sure there is a plan in place . Reset notwithstanding , I think we remain competitive for the foreseeable future . Enjoy what we have , don't worry so much about 2021 and beyond.

[moonslav59]

I don’t think the tax is the issue it’s the draft pick penalty, and if it’s only moving back 10 spots don’t think it’s much of an issue. Don’t think there’s any international restrictions unless we sign a free agent with a qualifying offer.

 

The 10 slot penalty is not bad, but it does have an effect if it's every year.

 

The tax is the issue, as it rises to 50% after for the third year. I doubt any owner wants to pat that every year. Even the wild spending Yanks and Dodgers chose to reset.

 

I'm almost certain we will at some point in the next 3 years.

[Fisk]

The 10 slot penalty is not bad, but it does have an effect if it's every year.

 

The tax is the issue, as it rises to 50% after for the third year. I doubt any owner wants to pat that every year. Even the wild spending Yanks and Dodgers chose to reset.

 

I'm almost certain we will at some point in the next 3 years.

The Sox are knee deep in money I’m not sure they reset. Again a lot will depend on the next basic agreement.

[Kimmi]

Yes, but you said 'everyone', and you said it twice in fact.

 

My bad on saying 'everyone'. Twice.

[Kimmi]

Some have a strange and undying love for Ben Cherington. They think that if he was still in charge, the team would have had the same success. And the farm would be lush with prospects. Pure speculation . Here is the reality: Ben was the man for four years. One championship and three last place teams . Dombrowski has been at the helm for three years . One championship and an unprecedented three straight A.L. East titles. Spin it any way you want . It doesn't change the reality.

 

Exhibit A

 

The defense rests.

[jacksonianmarch]

The 10 slot penalty is not bad, but it does have an effect if it's every year.

 

The tax is the issue, as it rises to 50% after for the third year. I doubt any owner wants to pat that every year. Even the wild spending Yanks and Dodgers chose to reset.

 

I'm almost certain we will at some point in the next 3 years.

 

 

The 10 slot penalty is definitely bad. I know they say everything beyond the first ten picks is a crap shoot, but it doesn't help your chances when you have ten more teams picking in front of you. The other thing you must consider is the slot value. The drop costs the sox $489.5K in value plus the 5% overage on that money brings it to a draft pool loss of $513K. That is 2018 value, as the 2019 value will make that number bigger. That's 10% of your draft budget.

 

Also, in year's past, losing a guy like Kimbrel would get the sox a pick right after the top 30. That isn't the case. Because the sox were over the lux tax, the Kimbrel comp pick will be after the fourth round. So, let's say for a second that the sox were under the threshold in 2018. They'd have pick #30 and pick #33 (I am assuming Kimbrel is graded behind Harper and Corbin) and that would entail $4.6 mil in draft pool when accounting for the 5% overage on those two picks alone. Instead, they're gonna see picks 40 and 135 (using this year as an example) which would give them $2.3 mil. Being over the lux tax limit and then surpassing the final hurdle will cost the sox $2.3 mil in draft budget. That is an immense amount of money for anyone drafting.

 

You need to consider this when the sox are surpassing that final hurdle. Are you willing to let 10 more players come off the board and see your draft pot drop by 10% every season while also paying immense financial penalties. The penalties get stiffer each year and the more past that final threshold that the sox need to go, the more they'll have to pay. For 2019, they will see a surcharge of 30% over $206 mil. As second time offenders, they would see a 75% surcharge for every penny over the final threshold and what amounts to 42% for the dollar amounts between $226-$246 mil. 2020 is when it hurts. 50% surcharge over the first bracket, 62% for the second surcharge ($20 mil over first hurdle) and 95% over the final hurdle. If the sox in 2020 are $50 mil over the first hurdle, they will pay $10 mil for the first surcharge, $12.5 mil for the second and a whopping $9.5 mil for the final $10 mil. That would be a $32 mil lux tax bill as third time offenders. Needless to say, I doubt the sox hit the final threshold in 2020 and if they do, they're gonna reset in 2021

Edited December 9, 2018 by jacksonianmarch

[cp176]

I love loyalty. And I guess I understand the unwavering dedication that some posters here have for past General Managers. I'll bet some of you can even remember their names. I'm a fan of the one that is doing the job. I actually think that they all play a significant role in team development just not as large a role as some think. They don't hit the ball - throw the ball- catch the ball - run the bases. I happen to like how dd does business. I've been told on numerous occasions that I have some unexplainable adoring respect for him. That offends me for sure but oh well. Normally I get accused of this when i disagree with someone about something baseball related. I can live with it. Liking the way Dave Dombrowski does his job, does not mean that someone is directly criticizing any past GM what ever their names might be. I have forgotten them. They do not work for the Red Sox and they do not play the game.

[moonslav59]

The 10 slot penalty is definitely bad. I know they say everything beyond the first ten picks is a crap shoot, but it doesn't help your chances when you have ten more teams picking in front of you. The other thing you must consider is the slot value. The drop costs the sox $489.5K in value plus the 5% overage on that money brings it to a draft pool loss of $513K. That is 2018 value, as the 2019 value will make that number bigger. That's 10% of your draft budget.

 

Also, in year's past, losing a guy like Kimbrel would get the sox a pick right after the top 30. That isn't the case. Because the sox were over the lux tax, the Kimbrel comp pick will be after the fourth round. So, let's say for a second that the sox were under the threshold in 2018. They'd have pick #30 and pick #33 (I am assuming Kimbrel is graded behind Harper and Corbin) and that would entail $4.6 mil in draft pool when accounting for the 5% overage on those two picks alone. Instead, they're gonna see picks 40 and 135 (using this year as an example) which would give them $2.3 mil. Being over the lux tax limit and then surpassing the final hurdle will cost the sox $2.3 mil in draft budget. That is an immense amount of money for anyone drafting.

 

You need to consider this when the sox are surpassing that final hurdle. Are you willing to let 10 more players come off the board and see your draft pot drop by 10% every season while also paying immense financial penalties. The penalties get stiffer each year and the more past that final threshold that the sox need to go, the more they'll have to pay. For 2019, they will see a surcharge of 30% over $206 mil. As second time offenders, they would see a 75% surcharge for every penny over the final threshold and what amounts to 42% for the dollar amounts between $226-$246 mil. 2020 is when it hurts. 50% surcharge over the first bracket, 62% for the second surcharge ($20 mil over first hurdle) and 95% over the final hurdle. If the sox in 2020 are $50 mil over the first hurdle, they will pay $10 mil for the first surcharge, $12.5 mil for the second and a whopping $9.5 mil for the final $10 mil. That would be a $32 mil lux tax bill as third time offenders. Needless to say, I doubt the sox hit the final threshold in 2020 and if they do, they're gonna reset in 2021

 

I guess it's a little worse than I thought, but the players we get for going over by $40M offsets that, don't you think?

 

A 50% tax on $40M is $20M and that gets you a lot of FA talent. I still think the tax penalty far outweighs the draft choice drop.

 

[Fisk]

Paying 32 million in luxury tax I am guessing they will be willing to pay it in 2020.The decision to reset will be based on the next Cba. If it’s not favorable I’m going to guess they will reset.

Now I may be wrong (have been many times)but the Sox are worth close to 3 billion dollars I’m not sure 50 million will bother them. John Henry has always been about winning.

Edited December 9, 2018 by Fisk

[jacksonianmarch]

But how long can you drop out of the first round and drop your draft pool? For reference, I don’t think the Yankees will ever go over the final threshold. The talent you lose and the flexibility to sign talent with the draft pool drop is a big penalty. I know $513K doesn’t sound like much and it isn’t to these corporations, but when it’s 10% of your draft pool, it does add up

 

Now last year the Sox surpassed the threshold at the deadline knowing they’d be one of the final picks in the draft anyway. Let’s say the Sox surpass that final hurdle before the season and they have a WS hangover. Let’s say they are already over the final hurdle and end up at pick 20. The drop from 20-30 is almost $900K and after the 5% takes you up to $930K. That’s an immense amount to lose

Edited December 9, 2018 by jacksonianmarch

[Fisk]

But how long can you drop out of the first round and drop your draft pool? For reference, I don’t think the Yankees will ever go over the final threshold. The talent you lose and the flexibility to sign talent with the draft pool drop is a big penalty. I know $513K doesn’t sound like much and it isn’t to these corporations, but when it’s 10% of your draft pool, it does add up

 

Now last year the Sox surpassed the threshold at the deadline knowing they’d be one of the final picks in the draft anyway. Let’s say the Sox surpass that final hurdle before the season and they have a WS hangover. Let’s say they are already over the final hurdle and end up at pick 20. The drop from 20-30 is almost $900K and after the 5% takes you up to $930K. That’s an immense amount to lose

 

I do understand dropping out of the first round but those picks 20-40 are not very different. Realize it can’t go on forever, but also realize the next Cba is going to be a war, the players need the Sox, Yankees and Dodgers to freely spend.

As to the Yankees when their young guys are at the stage the Sox are they are going to be in the same spot, that means they cannot be signing the expensive free agents like Machado or they always be over.

[jacksonianmarch]

I’m aware that the Yanks need to make some decisions as the kids age out of being cheap. This is one of the reasons you’re seeing Cashman not create a cliff. Corbin for 6 years would have been the last four years of rookie control and the first two FA seasons of Judge and Sanchez. That’s how Cash must look at things now. You break that rule for a guy like Harper or Machado, but on the whole, you have to prepare for the future so as to not have a ton of guys to pay and no funds to pay them from.

 

I do agree that the next CBA will be a war. Last year’s FA market was dead when the big spenders reset and I can imagine the players are out for blood after that. I think the commish will go for an INTL draft, which will really hinder teams at the back end of the draft, and then offset that with less harsh penalties for spending.

 

I do wonder if the next CBA doesn’t have a lux tax, but has a draft penalty. That would keep the money from being pulled from the team’s and not going to the players but also penalize the larger markets.