A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[notin]

Sign Ottavino

 

Trade: Hembree, Swihart & Shawaryn

 

For: Kirby Yates

 

 

San Diego might not like that package much.

 

Any reason your hellbent on trading Hembree?

[oldtimer]

Here's an updated look at our 2019 budget in Tax dollars and arb estimates:

 

31M Price

22M JD

20.6 Porcello

19.5 M Betts

17.0 Eovaldi

15.0 Sale

13.8 Pedey

11.3 Bogey

8.9 JBJ

6.5 Moreland

6.3 Pearce

5.0 Nunez

4.5 Vaz

4.3 ERod

3.5 Holt

3.3 Barnes

3.0 Leon

3.0 Wright

1.8 Thornburg

1.3 Hembree

1.0 Workman

1.0 Swihart

 

$203.6 Sub Total

 

+$18.5 Pablo

+$4.4M Others on 40 man roster

+$14.5M Player benefits

 

$241M Total

 

That's $35M over the limit.

 

Cots has us at $240M.

 

 

 

Our 40 man will probably not have Swihart, Kimbrel, Carson Smith, Drew Pomeranz, Kinsler, Phillips returning. Some of those are certain and others my projection.

 

For various reasons, there are risk factors and reasons why some may not be on the team in 2019 or not be able to contribute and need to be replaced.

My list of those include Pedroia, Wright,Workman, Johnson, Hernandez, Scott, Velazquez, Travis, Shepard, Poyner, Walden, Taylor and Reyes. Not many impact players in that list and not a lot of monetary commitment except Pedey. Some may be used as trade bait.

 

Maybe we pick Kelly up off of free agency. I'm for it if we can find the money.

 

I believe we will bring up a couple of pitchers from the minors to add to the 40 man and that will necessitate some from the 2nd list to be dealt.

[Fisk]

San Diego might not like that package much.

 

Any reason your hellbent on trading Hembree?

 

I think if you substitute Lakins for Hembree there could be a deal. I’m not sure if I was the Redsox I would do that deal.

[moonslav59]

San Diego might not like that package much.

 

Any reason your hellbent on trading Hembree?

 

I think he has value. Gotta give to get.

 

He's out of options, as is Swihart.

 

He might do better with a change of scenery.

 

I thought of giving Velazquez or Johnson instead of Shawaryn.

 

[moonslav59]

I think if you substitute Lakins for Hembree there could be a deal. I’m not sure if I was the Redsox I would do that deal.

 

I'd do it.

 

How about subbing Lakins for Shawaryn?

[Fisk]

I'd do it.

 

How about subbing Lakins for Shawaryn?

 

You had Shawaryn in your original proposal. I like Shawaryn for potential starting depth.

[moonslav59]

You had Shawaryn in your original proposal. I like Shawaryn for potential starting depth.

 

He reminds me of Beeks.

[Fisk]

He reminds me of Beeks.

 

Who we got Eovaldi for, Shawaryn could be a good trade deadline chip.

[moonslav59]

Who we got Eovaldi for, Shawaryn could be a good trade deadline chip.

 

So, a deadline chip is better than an offseason chip?

[Fisk]

So, a deadline chip is better than an offseason chip?

 

What would we have gotten for Beeks last off-season?not a starter throwing a 100 miles an hour. Always depends if it’s a buyer or sellers market

[moonslav59]

What would we have gotten for Beeks last off-season?not a starter throwing a 100 miles an hour. Always depends if it’s a buyer or sellers market

 

So, why sign Eovaldi? We should have just waited for July and traded Shawaryn, Lakins and Velzquez for 3 Eovaldi's.

[Fisk]

So, why sign Eovaldi? We should have just waited for July and traded Shawaryn, Lakins and Velzquez for 3 Eovaldi's.

 

You just trying to be an idiot you are succeeding at it

[moonslav59]

Funny that extending your logic is idiocy.

[Fisk]

Funny that extending your logic is idiocy.

Well if you call that logic and not being snarky you are being an idiot. Try not being condescending your knowledge is no greater then mine.

[Bellhorn04]

Dombrowski gets this team nowhere without the foundation set by Ben and Theo.

 

Dombrowski doesn't win in 2018 without the foundation set by Ben and Theo.

 

Theo doesn't win in 2004 without the foundation set by Duquette.

 

Ben doesn't win in 2013 without the foundation set by Theo.

 

The statements are all true. But does that diminish the accomplishments?

[Kimmi]

Dombrowski doesn't win in 2018 without the foundation set by Ben and Theo.

 

Theo doesn't win in 2004 without the foundation set by Duquette.

 

Ben doesn't win in 2013 without the foundation set by Theo.

 

The statements are all true. But does that diminish the accomplishments?

 

Of course each GM works with the foundation set by the previous GM or GMs.

 

I just don't think Dombrowski is as great as everyone else thinks he is.

 

Dombrowski deserves some credit for 2018. He's not the otherworldly savior to this team that everyone makes him out to be. I could have made this team a championship team walking into the situation that Dombrowski walked into and paying what he paid for Price, Sale, and Kimbrel, as could any of us posting here with some baseball knowledge, and I say that with all sincerity.

 

I give Dombrowski all the credit in the world for his 2018 moves. Those were great moves. Even Kinsler.

[Bellhorn04]

Of course each GM works with the foundation set by the previous GM or GMs.

 

I just don't think Dombrowski is as great as everyone else thinks he is.

 

Dombrowski deserves some credit for 2018. He's not the otherworldly savior to this team that everyone makes him out to be. I could have made this team a championship team walking into the situation that Dombrowski walked into and paying what he paid for Price, Sale, and Kimbrel, as could any of us posting here with some baseball knowledge, and I say that with all sincerity.

 

I give Dombrowski all the credit in the world for his 2018 moves. Those were great moves. Even Kinsler.

 

I think some of this is pretty unfair.

 

First of all, no one should be making him into an otherworldly savior, and I think very few if any of the knowledgeable Sox fans here have actually done that.

 

As for Price, Sale and Kimbrel, why shouldn't he be given credit for picking the right guys?

 

Spending a pile of money is no slam-dunk guarantee of success, as we all know.

 

Under Ben we spent over $250 million on Hanley, Pablo and Castillo for a tiny sliver of net WAR.

[Kimmi]

I think some of this is pretty unfair.

 

First of all, no one should be making him into an otherworldly savior, and I think very few if any of the knowledgeable Sox fans here have actually done that.

 

As for Price, Sale and Kimbrel, why shouldn't he be given credit for picking the right guys?

 

Spending a pile of money is no slam-dunk guarantee of success, as we all know.

 

Under Ben we spent over $250 million on Hanley, Pablo and Castillo for a tiny sliver of net WAR.

 

There are several posters on here who thing Dombrowski can do no wrong and have more or less bestowed savior status to him, while at the same time bashing Ben.

 

Is it really that difficult to identify the top pitchers and then overpay for them?

 

Ben did not have the autonomy or the open wallet that Dombrowski has.

 

Castillo turned out to be a really bad move. IMO, that was all Ben.

[Fisk]

There are several posters on here who thing Dombrowski can do no wrong and have more or less bestowed savior status to him, while at the same time bashing Ben.

 

Is it really that difficult to identify the top pitchers and then overpay for them?

 

Ben did not have the autonomy or the open wallet that Dombrowski has.

 

Castillo turned out to be a really bad move. IMO, that was all Ben.

What Dave did in June and July was a royal flush could not have been more perfect. Also has done a great job picking what prospects to stay and which to hold.

[notin]

I think some of this is pretty unfair.

 

First of all, no one should be making him into an otherworldly savior, and I think very few if any of the knowledgeable Sox fans here have actually done that.

 

As for Price, Sale and Kimbrel, why shouldn't he be given credit for picking the right guys?

 

Spending a pile of money is no slam-dunk guarantee of success, as we all know.

 

Under Ben we spent over $250 million on Hanley, Pablo and Castillo for a tiny sliver of net WAR.

 

Dombrowski did walk into a really good situation and did what he had to to capitalize on it. He did what he has always done - strip down the farm in order to acquire All Star talent. While it doesn’t always work, it is a really effective method of building a team.

 

Going forward, we’ll see what DD can do. He’s setting up 2019 so that anything short of another title is a failure, which is good. But we will see how good he is come 2020 when he has to deal with a contract crisis he created...

[Kimmi]

What Dave did in June and July was a royal flush could not have been more perfect. Also has done a great job picking what prospects to stay and which to hold.

 

I 100% agree with your first sentence. I mostly agree with your second sentence, though the verdict is still out on that.

[notin]

What Dave did in June and July was a royal flush could not have been more perfect. Also has done a great job picking what prospects to stay and which to hold.

 

He traded Logan Allen for Kimbrel. As of September, Jim Callis of Baseball America ranked Logan Allen as the top pitching prospect in all of MLB and the #7 overall prospect. Are you sayings Dombrowski chose to trade him but knew enough to keep Trey Ball?

 

DD traded away good players and plenty of them. The strategy worked but people really need to stop justifying it just because Yoan Moncada isn’t an All Star or because Kopech got injured or because Carlis Asuaje got... well, he should never come up anyway since he was an organizational filler and s throw in.

 

The trophy is fine for justifying things. All those players could have spent 15 years inBoston and never won a title. The Red Sox had Hall of Famers in left field for roughly 50 consecutive seasons and none of them got a single ring.

 

But just because you want to pretend Dombrowski selected prospects to trade who went on to do nothing doesn’t make it true. In fact, it already isn’t....

[Fisk]

He traded Logan Allen for Kimbrel. As of September, Jim Callis of Baseball America ranked Logan Allen as the top pitching prospect in all of MLB and the #7 overall prospect. Are you sayings Dombrowski chose to trade him but knew enough to keep Trey Ball?

 

DD traded away good players and plenty of them. The strategy worked but people really need to stop justifying it just because Yoan Moncada isn’t an All Star or because Kopech got injured or because Carlis Asuaje got... well, he should never come up anyway since he was an organizational filler and s throw in.

 

The trophy is fine for justifying things. All those players could have spent 15 years inBoston and never won a title. The Red Sox had Hall of Famers in left field for roughly 50 consecutive seasons and none of them got a single ring.

 

But just because you want to pretend Dombrowski selected prospects to trade who went on to do nothing doesn’t make it true. In fact, it already isn’t....

Logan Allen is a good prospect but not the top pitching prospect in baseball that is just foolish. Dombrowski is known for talent evaluation and I stick by my story.

[Bellhorn04]

There are several posters on here who thing Dombrowski can do no wrong and have more or less bestowed savior status to him, while at the same time bashing Ben.

 

Yes, but you said 'everyone', and you said it twice in fact.

[Fisk]

He traded Logan Allen for Kimbrel. As of September, Jim Callis of Baseball America ranked Logan Allen as the top pitching prospect in all of MLB and the #7 overall prospect. Are you sayings Dombrowski chose to trade him but knew enough to keep Trey Ball?

 

DD traded away good players and plenty of them. The strategy worked but people really need to stop justifying it just because Yoan Moncada isn’t an All Star or because Kopech got injured or because Carlis Asuaje got... well, he should never come up anyway since he was an organizational filler and s throw in.

 

The trophy is fine for justifying things. All those players could have spent 15 years inBoston and never won a title. The Red Sox had Hall of Famers in left field for roughly 50 consecutive seasons and none of them got a single ring.

 

But just because you want to pretend Dombrowski selected prospects to trade who went on to do nothing doesn’t make it true. In fact, it already isn’t....

 

Jim Callis writes for mlb pipeline they have Allen rated as the 71st overall prospect and he’s number 8 in the Padres system, which is a great system.

[notin]

Logan Allen is a good prospect but not the top pitching prospect in baseball that is just foolish. Dombrowski is known for talent evaluation and I stick by my story.

 

Either way, Allen is a better prospect than every pitching prospect in the Sox farm system right now. Every. Single. One. Hard to support that he knew who to keep and who to trade when that is true.

 

Dombrowski really isn’t known for minor league talent evaluation. He is known for emptying farm systems to acquire MLB talent. He did that in Florida, Detroit, and Boston. Interestingly, he then tried the reverse inFlorida and traded away his players to refill the farm, and it didn’t work so well. (Granted, That was 15 years ago.)

 

He didn’t keep the right prospects and deal away the bad ones in Boston. He traded away nearly the entire top layer of the farm system, made mid-season deals only using unranked reach prospects, and made some truly bizarre moves involving keeping/releasing players on the 40man roster.

 

You can like Dombrowski as a GM and like what he has done for this team and still acknowledge that many of the players he traded away will be good...

[notin]

Jim Callis writes for mlb pipeline they have Allen rated as the 71st overall prospect and he’s number 8 in the Padres system, which is a great system.

 

I saw an article by him from September that had Allen #7 overall, which I found surprising. Either way, if the Sox kept Allen, he would very likely be #1 in the Sox system, unless he was headed for the MLB rotation...

[Bellhorn04]

Dombrowski really isn’t known for minor league talent evaluation. He is known for emptying farm systems to acquire MLB talent. He did that in Florida, Detroit, and Boston. Interestingly, he then tried the reverse inFlorida and traded away his players to refill the farm, and it didn’t work so well. (Granted, That was 15 years ago.)

 

He didn’t keep the right prospects and deal away the bad ones in Boston. He traded away nearly the entire top layer of the farm system, made mid-season deals only using unranked reach prospects, and made some truly bizarre moves involving keeping/releasing players on the 40man roster.

 

Does this mean that Benintendi and Devers don't count as prospects?

[notin]

Jim Callis writes for mlb pipeline they have Allen rated as the 71st overall prospect and he’s number 8 in the Padres system, which is a great system.

 

Okthink about this. Allen is #71 overall but #7 in the San Diego system. That means the Padres have nearly 1 of every 10 of the best 70 prospects in baseball. That’s crazy...

[Fisk]

Okthink about this. Allen is #71 overall but #7 in the San Diego system. That means the Padres have nearly 1 of every 10 of the best 70 prospects in baseball. That’s crazy...

 

San Diego has a crazy system.