A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Nick]

We're at $240M in CB Payroll. Second penalty phase ends at $246M.

 

We'll have $81M coming off the books between Pablo, Xander, Sale, Porcello, Moreland, Pearce and Nunez. Say no one comes back. Our CB payroll is $165M with following line-up. Arbitration raises will be due to Betts, JBJ, E Rod and others. Say $20M. Our CB Payroll is now around $185M.

 

SP Price, Eovaldi, E Rod, Wright, Johnson, Hector. Bullpen...pretty much same as it is today.

 

C Vaz 1B Chavis 2B Dustin SS Lin 3B Devers LF Beni CF JBJ RF Betts DH JD

 

Assuming reset, we'll have $23M between Sale, Porcello and Xander. I'd say we sign Xander and let everyone else go. If JD opts out, it's possible to re sign Porcello and stay under the cap.

 

Here's a radical idea.

 

Knowing essentially that 2020 is a 'rebuilding' year, would you consider trading Betts for young talent and then turn around and sign him? That would free up another $20M or so.

[cp176]

It is probably safe to say that i value an athletes character and the intangible things that I don't think can be measured a great deal. Maybe even too much some times. Nathan Eovaldi is a character guy. He fits so very much into the type of team that has been quietly constructed here in Boston. I just want this good older kid to stay healthy and start but I bet if he was asked to go to the pen he would be a guy that would do what is best for his team. It is a signing that I have to say- I really like.

[Nick]

I'm thrilled.

 

I think some people seem to think I fret about our future every minute of the day. I don't.

 

I love how DD has run the team. I love where we are for the next 2 years. We've had 3 good years and a ring with 2 more great chances for another ring.

 

That's a tremendously long window DD built, with some help from Ben's farm, I might add.

 

I'm perfectly okay with a year or two rebuild starting 3 years from now. I'm not down at all.

 

Merry Christmas & a Happy TWO Years!

 

I'm going to repeat myself but what if we reset in 2020? We let both Sale and Porcello go along with Pearce, Moreland, Holt, Wright, and hope JD opts out. Stay with me here.

 

We re-sign Xander to long term contract.

 

We trade away Betts and his $20M anticipated salary for 2019 for younger pieces. Trade him to a team that's an outfielder away from winning it all. We do this with the thought of overpaying Betts for 2021. Hell give him $350M deal.

 

I estimate our CB Payroll going into 2021 to be around $170 with just one signing, Xander.

 

Our budget is $250M for 2021. We'll have approximately $80M to sign Betts, JBJ (incremental pay raise) and a top line starting pitcher. We start over and have a three year window. Rinse and wash.

 

For 2021

 

SP Price, E Rod, Eovaldi, $25M Man, ?????

 

LineUp

 

Betts, Beni, Xander, Devers, Chavis, Pedroia (DH), Lin, Vaz, JBJ

Edited December 6, 2018 by Nick

[Nick]

Per WEEI

 

Make no mistake out it, signing Eovaldi to this sort of deal is a risk. It always is. But considering what the Red Sox know about the 28-year-old, how Patrick Corbin's recent six-year contract reminded us all of the expense that comes with trying to garner premier starting pitching talent, and the uncertainty that will be two-thirds of the Sox' starting rotation after 2019 thanks to the contracts of Sale and Rick Porcello, this one makes sense.

 

Agian, hedging against Sale/Porcello not returning for myriads of reasons.

[jacksonianmarch]

Nick, there is absolutely no way on God's green earth that DD deals away Betts. You have to see what the ownership wants, and they want to sustain winning. Once they show a need to blow it up, DD will be long gone, so he isn't gonna deal away Betts unless the sox flop in 2019, which I don't see happening.

 

I do think Eovaldi has as much to do with Sale and Porcello as it does about 2019. The sox are trying to prop open a window with a guy who's elbow has seen two reconstructions and, up until his injury shortened contract year, was an enigma. This is a huge outlay for a guy who doesn't have a great track record. That being said, it was an absolute necessity for Boston to do. If they stayed with 4 lefties in the rotation and had to face off with a now primed NY team with an addition of another generational talent and more left handedness to their rotation and depth to their team, they would have fallen. Eovaldi, assuming good health, evens the playing field as his RH power arsenal matches up well with the Yankees RH dominated lineup. We don't hit RH power well at all. We absolutely murder everything left handed. Heck, if Eo stays healthy and the sox and yanks square off in the ALDS again in 2019, I wouldn't be surprised to see Eo be the game 1 and game 5 starter

[moonslav59]

I'm going to repeat myself but what if we reset in 2020? We let both Sale and Porcello go along with Pearce, Moreland, Holt, Wright, and hope JD opts out. Stay with me here.

 

We re-sign Xander to long term contract.

 

We trade away Betts and his $20M anticipated salary for 2019 for younger pieces. Trade him to a team that's an outfielder away from winning it all. We do this with the thought of overpaying Betts for 2021. Hell give him $350M deal.

 

I estimate our CB Payroll going into 2021 to be around $170 with just one signing, Xander.

 

Our budget is $250M for 2021. We'll have approximately $80M to sign Betts, JBJ (incremental pay raise) and a top line starting pitcher. We start over and have a three year window. Rinse and wash.

 

For 2021

 

SP Price, E Rod, Eovaldi, $25M Man, ?????

 

LineUp

 

Betts, Beni, Xander, Devers, Chavis, Pedroia (DH), Lin, Vaz, JBJ

 

I have said re-setting after 2019 might make more sense, especially the way so many big contracts all end after next season, but it also won't take a whole lot to keep a strong enough team together for one more year... maybe no Sale, Moreland and Pearce, and we go with Wright, Johnson, Chavis and Dalbec.

[Bellhorn04]

He being here may mean someone else isn't.

 

That's kind of obvious isn't it?

[Nick]

Nick, there is absolutely no way on God's green earth that DD deals away Betts. You have to see what the ownership wants, and they want to sustain winning. Once they show a need to blow it up, DD will be long gone, so he isn't gonna deal away Betts unless the sox flop in 2019, which I don't see happening.

 

I do think Eovaldi has as much to do with Sale and Porcello as it does about 2019. The sox are trying to prop open a window with a guy who's elbow has seen two reconstructions and, up until his injury shortened contract year, was an enigma. This is a huge outlay for a guy who doesn't have a great track record. That being said, it was an absolute necessity for Boston to do. If they stayed with 4 lefties in the rotation and had to face off with a now primed NY team with an addition of another generational talent and more left handedness to their rotation and depth to their team, they would have fallen. Eovaldi, assuming good health, evens the playing field as his RH power arsenal matches up well with the Yankees RH dominated lineup. We don't hit RH power well at all. We absolutely murder everything left handed. Heck, if Eo stays healthy and the sox and yanks square off in the ALDS again in 2019, I wouldn't be surprised to see Eo be the game 1 and game 5 starter

 

Good points on Eovaldi. We play each other, what, 19 times? You do have to think about how to beat your nemesis.

[jacksonianmarch]

Good points on Eovaldi. We play each other, what, 19 times? You do have to think about how to beat your nemesis.

 

It's not just your nemesis, it's your nemesis who won 100 games and in most seasons would have won the division. It's also your nemesis who is likely to improve dramatically this offseason while you're trying to keep the band together.

[moonslav59]

That's kind of obvious isn't it?

 

Yes, but when I here someone say we got Eovaldi to cover for losing Porcello, I think maybe getting Eovaldi means we chose him over Porcello and not to cover for him, in case we lose him. Losing Porcello will likely be because of Eovaldi.

 

I'm fine with getting Eovaldi. I'm fine with us maybe being a little worse down the line, because we have to let Porcello (or Sale) go.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, but when I here someone say we got Eovaldi to cover for losing Porcello, I think maybe getting Eovaldi means we chose him over Porcello and not to cover for him, in case we lose him. Losing Porcello will likely be because of Eovaldi.

 

I'm fine with getting Eovaldi. I'm fine with us maybe being a little worse down the line, because we have to let Porcello (or Sale) go.

 

I firmly believe they will try to retain one of Sale or Porcello.

[moonslav59]

I firmly believe they will try to retain one of Sale or Porcello.

 

Well, then they might have been able to keep both, if they did not sign Eovaldi.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, then they might have been able to keep both, if they did not sign Eovaldi.

 

Possibly. They might lose them both too. There are plenty of scenarios and I'm sure DD and the front office have given them all a lot of consideration. Both DD and Cora have raved about Eovaldi. They placed a bet on him.

[moonslav59]

Possibly. They might lose them both too. There are plenty of scenarios and I'm sure DD and the front office have given them all a lot of consideration. Both DD and Cora have raved about Eovaldi. They placed a bet on him.

 

I'm sure they thought long and hard about Eovaldi's contractual effect on 2020, 2021 and 2022.

 

I'm not being critical. I trust they know what they are doing, but I also think there is a re-set plan somewhere in the next 3 years. (They could end up trading Eovaldi at the point we re-set, if they so choose.)

[Nick]

I'm sure they thought long and hard about Eovaldi's contractual effect on 2020, 2021 and 2022.

 

I'm not being critical. I trust they know what they are doing, but I also think there is a re-set plan somewhere in the next 3 years. (They could end up trading Eovaldi at the point we re-set, if they so choose.)

 

Point 1. Good to have Eovaldi for 2019 as opposed to relying on Wright, Johnson and Hector. My guess is we will still need the latter three to fill in for injuries and heavy schedule. Also don't forget the fatigue factor early in the year.

 

Point 2. There's a good possibility that Eovaldi's career in on the upswing. Don't you think it's possible that he can duplicate or exceed Porcello?I certainly believe that's what DD, Cora and others are thinking. From where I sit, we simply extended Porcello for three years, we are paying $5M less and for 2019 we signed his twin. I just don't see any downside.

[Bellhorn04]

Point 1. Good to have Eovaldi for 2019 as opposed to relying on Wright, Johnson and Hector. My guess is we will still need the latter three to fill in for injuries and heavy schedule. Also don't forget the fatigue factor early in the year.

 

Point 2. There's a good possibility that Eovaldi's career in on the upswing. Don't you think it's possible that he can duplicate or exceed Porcello?I certainly believe that's what DD, Cora and others are thinking. From where I sit, we simply extended Porcello for three years, we are paying $5M less and for 2019 we signed his twin. I just don't see any downside.

 

Eovaldi and Porcello are not exactly twins, Nick. Porcello is fantastically durable, a guy who makes every start and normally goes 6 innings. I would not expect Eovaldi to replicate that.

[cp176]

Eovaldi and Porcello are not exactly twins, Nick. Porcello is fantastically durable, a guy who makes every start and normally goes 6 innings. I would not expect Eovaldi to replicate that.

 

I have grown accustomed to Porcello. High end mid- rotation kind of guy if you ask me. Tough to find pitchers these days who are as durable and when he is on he is a good one. We make a lot of educated guesses here as to what the future might bring. And by future I don't mean next year. I don't do it for a couple of reasons one of which is that I am not knowledgeable enough about the whole process to add much but the more important one is that I tend to focus on the next season and I like what I see heading toward spring training. I also don't think that DD is done either. As for the future, as sure as some people think the landscape looks, a part of me just thinks that a lot of things can change. I'm not naive enough to think that something this good lasts forever but I absolutely feel that as long as ownership and our front office as well as current coaching staff for the most part stays in tact we likely will continue to compete for the American League East. Unless someone has a true crystal ball, a prediction of what this team is going to look like beyond next year is pure speculation. Maybe educated speculation but still speculation. If there is an honest attempt to sign Betts, does anybody really think that our ownership will be content to just accept a down year or two? I don't.

[Bellhorn04]

I have grown accustomed to Porcello. High end mid- rotation kind of guy if you ask me. Tough to find pitchers these days who are as durable and when he is on he is a good one. We make a lot of educated guesses here as to what the future might bring. And by future I don't mean next year. I don't do it for a couple of reasons one of which is that I am not knowledgeable enough about the whole process to add much but the more important one is that I tend to focus on the next season and I like what I see heading toward spring training. I also don't think that DD is done either. As for the future, as sure as some people think the landscape looks, a part of me just thinks that a lot of things can change. I'm not naive enough to think that something this good lasts forever but I absolutely feel that as long as ownership and our front office as well as current coaching staff for the most part stays in tact we likely will continue to compete for the American League East. Unless someone has a true crystal ball, a prediction of what this team is going to look like beyond next year is pure speculation. Maybe educated speculation but still speculation. If there is an honest attempt to sign Betts, does anybody really think that our ownership will be content to just accept a down year or two? I don't.

 

I think it should be pretty obvious by now that John Henry is not in this business just to make money, he's in it to win it. That is great news for Sox fans.

[cp176]

I think it should be pretty obvious by now that John Henry is not in this business just to make money, he's in it to win it. That is great news for Sox fans.

 

I'm very grateful to be alive to experience the greatest Red Sox run to date.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi, no one knows better than you the randomness of one game.

 

OK, then change my 99 wins to 101 wins.

[Kimmi]

Well, half the contract will be from ages 28-32. That's not really past prime. Ages 33-35 are many time very good to decent years, so that's 8 out of 10. Only 2 years, at ages 36-37 might be scary, but they could be very good, too.

 

 

MLB hitters peak at about 27 or 28 years of age. The decline starts after age 28. At about the age of 32, the decline becomes steep. Look at just about any aging curve for offensive metrics.

 

Now I understand that there are exceptions and that some players are going to continue to play well into their mid 30s. Those are the exceptions though, not the norm. Mookie might be one of the exceptions. Then again, he might not be.

[Kimmi]

I still think signing Eovaldi is the right move. It will allow Sox to 'go for it' one more time. If and that's a big if, he has a stellar year, it will make losing Sale little easier to swallow the following year. The staff still has some upside left in E Rod becoming a pitcher that everyone expects.

 

Question is whether the farm can produce a legit, major league starting pitcher within next couple of years.

 

I am happy that Eovaldi is back with our team.

[Kimmi]

Looks like he did.

 

Dave is so predictable. LOL

[Kimmi]

Be Happy Moon. This has been a great off season. I want to feel this way next Christmas.

 

We have a great team going into the 2019 season.

 

It will be hard to repeat, but I like our chances!

[moonslav59]

MLB hitters peak at about 27 or 28 years of age. The decline starts after age 28. At about the age of 32, the decline becomes steep. Look at just about any aging curve for offensive metrics.

 

Now I understand that there are exceptions and that some players are going to continue to play well into their mid 30s. Those are the exceptions though, not the norm. Mookie might be one of the exceptions. Then again, he might not be.

 

 

I don't think the decline after 32 is all that steep. Anyways, half the years are uo to 32,

[Bellhorn04]

OK, then change my 99 wins to 101 wins.

 

Sorry, you said 99. No do-overs.

 

Also, 101 wins would have meant a neck and neck race with the Yanks to avoid the WC game. It could have had a major impact on Cora's ability to rest guys.

 

I guarantee Cora was very happy to have that comfortable lead coming down the stretch and that it helped him get the team ready for the postseason.

Edited December 7, 2018 by Bellhorn04

[Bellhorn04]

Dave is so predictable. LOL

 

You're right, actually. He is predictable. Ben was the opposite. You never knew what the heck he was going to do.

[notin]

You're right, actually. He is predictable. Ben was the opposite. You never knew what the heck he was going to do.

 

Sure you did.

 

Hold prospects. Draft well. Make poor free agent signings...

[cp176]

Sure you did.

 

Hold prospects. Draft well. Make poor free agent signings...

 

...And there you have it.

[OH FOY]

Sure you did.

 

Hold prospects. Draft well. Make poor free agent signings...

 

And both won a WS. Remember DD used same formula with the Tigers, only difference was the kids we Drafted on this Sox Team, were huge impacts. Just be happy DD, didn't screw that up. Remember after AS Break, Sale had only 4 starts. So basically for 2 Months, he had very little impact on this team, later in season.

Price came through and not many see this, during stretch run.

Edited December 7, 2018 by OH FOY!