A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[cp176]

I could be wrong, but I think his body type is the kind that ages well. Yes, he may get hurt crashing into walls, but I think he will be very good into his late 30's. To me, h

is main skill is his reflexes and his "twitch responses" are off the charts good.

 

I'm not sure there is a comparable comp in MLB history, but personally, I think that will help him as he ages. Besides, 37 is the new 35.

 

 

It is a fair assumption but there is no way of knowing for sure whether he will age well or not.

[Bellhorn04]

We are getting a little silly when we decide that Mookie may be worth eight years , but certainly not ten . Please .

 

Sometimes we get a little hung up on the years. Dollars and average dollars are pretty important too.

 

Would you rather sign Mookie for 10 years, $300 million or 8 years, $280 million?

[moonslav59]

Sometimes we get a little hung up on the years. Dollars and average dollars are pretty important too.

 

Would you rather sign Mookie for 10 years, $300 million or 8 years, $280 million?

 

I'd take Mookie at ages 36 and 37 for $10M a year. With inflation the way it is in MLB, $10M may be like $3-5M now.

 

I'd even give him $320M/12.

[mvp 78]

We are getting a little silly when we decide that Mookie may be worth eight years , but certainly not ten . Please .

 

You have to be very worried about this cliff in 2027!!!

[moonslav59]

lol!

[Kimmi]

He is at that point, but he’s also been worth it through the first half of his contract. If he eeks out two more great seasons, then the last three years are gravy. You don’t measure these long contracts on how they finish. Any team agreeing to a huge contract knows the last year or two will not be pretty

 

The last 3 years may be gravy in terms of money paid into the contract, but you still have to deal with the player being on the roster with a huge salary that isn't easy to eat. And what if Cano doesn't eek out two more great seasons? That's 5 years of an albatross contract to deal with.

[Kimmi]

Sometimes we get a little hung up on the years. Dollars and average dollars are pretty important too.

 

Would you rather sign Mookie for 10 years, $300 million or 8 years, $280 million?

 

I would not do either one of those contracts.

 

And IMO, two years is a significant difference.

[moonslav59]

I think Cano at 40 is quite different than Betts at 37.

[Bellhorn04]

I would not do either one of those contracts.

 

And IMO, two years is a significant difference.

 

It is a big difference. In the example I gave, though, the AAV is $30 million vs. $35 million, so it's better for tax purposes.

[Kimmi]

I think Cano at 40 is quite different than Betts at 37.

 

I don't disagree with that, but either way, 10 years is too long to give to any player, even one as good as Mookie.

[Kimmi]

It is a big difference. In the example I gave, though, the AAV is $30 million vs. $35 million, so it's better for tax purposes.

 

I hear you. If I had to choose one of the two deals, I'd probably take the AAV of $30 since it's over so many years.

 

In shorter term deals, like 2 versus 3 years, I prefer the higher AAV and fewer years.

[moonslav59]

I don't disagree with that, but either way, 10 years is too long to give to any player, even one as good as Mookie.

 

37 is not really that old. The 10 year deal might have just 1-3 years of low production, if any.

[oldtimer]

37 is not really that old. The 10 year deal might have just 1-3 years of low production, if any.

 

What do you suppose the luxury tax ceiling will be in 11 years? Will there even continue to be a competitive balance tax?

[oldtimer]

Some major trades coming down with Cano and Diaz to mets and now Segura to Phillies. Who is next? Machado? Harper?

 

When will we jump in and get the guys we need?

[moonslav59]

What do you suppose the luxury tax ceiling will be in 11 years? Will there even continue to be a competitive balance tax?

 

Who knows. All I worry about with Mookie is losing him. He's the best Sox player I have ever seen. To let him go brings me back to the the days of losing Lynn, Fisk, Burleson...

[Larry Cook]

Haven’t we learned our lesson about long contracts for tiny players from the contract we gave pedrioa?

[moonslav59]

Haven't we learned the lesson about how doing one thing that does not work out does not mean never try it again.

[Larry Cook]

Haven't we learned the lesson about how doing one thing that does not work out does not mean never try it again.

 

Which is why sandavol smiles widely when he think about boston’s Baseball operations department!

[moonslav59]

Which is why sandavol smiles widely when he think about boston’s Baseball operations department!

 

...and JD, and Price, and Lackey, and 2 rings Manny...

[Larry Cook]

...and JD, and Price, and Lackey, and 2 rings Manny...

 

And how many of them are under six foot tall?

[notin]

Haven’t we learned our lesson about long contracts for tiny players from the contract we gave pedrioa?

 

Have we learned the meaning of the word “relevance”?

[moonslav59]

And how many of them are under six foot tall?

 

Because Betts is not 6 feet tall, he's doomed to decline quicker than big hefty players?

 

I thought the opposite.

[kenmeister]

Haven’t we learned our lesson about long contracts for tiny players from the contract we gave pedrioa?

 

Big, small, whatever; I don't like giving contracts when someone is 30 or less of age that takes them past age 35.

[Bellhorn04]

Because Betts is not 6 feet tall, he's doomed to decline quicker than big hefty players?

 

I thought the opposite.

 

Logical Larry. Sometimes I think he's just trolling us.

[Bellhorn04]

Big, small, whatever; I don't like giving contracts when someone is 30 or less of age that takes them past age 35.

 

Nobody does, ken. Not even the owners and the GM's, I bet. So what do you do, just let Mookie play his prime years somewhere else?

[oldtimer]

Because Betts is not 6 feet tall, he's doomed to decline quicker than big hefty players?

 

I thought the opposite.

 

Willy Mays was 5'10" and 170 pounds. He lasted 22 years. Betts might well be of a similar ilk.

[notin]

Willy Mays was 5'10" and 170 pounds. He lasted 22 years. Betts might well be of a similar ilk.

 

Rickey Henderson wasn’t very big either. But he lasted a long time...

[Bellhorn04]

Willy Mays was 5'10" and 170 pounds. He lasted 22 years. Betts might well be of a similar ilk.

 

Rickey Henderson wasn’t very big either. But he lasted a long time...

 

Mays and Henderson are certainly much more apt comparisons to Mookie than Pedroia.

[moonslav59]

I have no evidence to back this opinion up, but my guess is smaller players last longer than big bulky ones.

 

The only argument I see as being valid on Betts and longevity is the way he plays the game all out. That does increase the odds of multiple injuries or one big one, but I think Fenway's RF may be one of the safest places to play, since you are so far away from any walls and other players or infield collisions.

[Bellhorn04]

I have no evidence to back this opinion up, but my guess is smaller players last longer than big bulky ones.

 

The only argument I see as being valid on Betts and longevity is the way he plays the game all out. That does increase the odds of multiple injuries or one big one, but I think Fenway's RF may be one of the safest places to play, since you are so far away from any walls and other players or infield collisions.

 

The RF bullpen wall is potentially lethal, but Mookie knows how to navigate it by now.