And the off season begins (2018-19)

[Emp9]

If that's what Anibal Sanchez is getting, the "discount closer" DD is waiting out the market for is Matt Barnes.

 

Unless he goes all in on Jim Johnson or Brad Brach...

 

It’s high, but Sanchez DID have a bounce back season. And it’s the Nats. They’re not known as some brilliant team that are always smart with their money.

[moonslav59]

It’s high, but Sanchez DID have a bounce back season. And it’s the Nats. They’re not known as some brilliant team that are always smart with their money.

 

They do seem to do well with pitcher acquisitions.

[notin]

It’s high, but Sanchez DID have a bounce back season. And it’s the Nats. They’re not known as some brilliant team that are always smart with their money.

 

The Scherzer contract drew a lot of criticism, but it's worked out so far.

 

We'll see about Corbin and Sanchez. Ultimaltely the worst this deal does is hamstring them for 2 seasons...

[Emp9]

I was thinking more Werth than Scherzer of course.

[Emp9]

Ha! LAD trading Piug & Kemp & Wood for Bailey and some minor leaguers. It would be pretty funny if someone else swooped in right now and signed Harper right out from underneath them.

[Larry Cook]

Ha! LAD trading Piug & Kemp & Wood for Bailey and some minor leaguers. It would be pretty funny if someone else swooped in right now and signed Harper right out from underneath them.

 

If Bailey turns back the clock on his second tour of duty, this will be a huge deal for the dodgers.

 

Added bonus for the reds is they are in the hook for one year on the puig and Kemp deals, I think.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bailey is being released

[notin]

Ha! LAD trading Piug & Kemp & Wood for Bailey and some minor leaguers. It would be pretty funny if someone else swooped in right now and signed Harper right out from underneath them.

 

Not if it was the Yankees...

[Station 13]

With Kimbrel market stalling and his asking price drop, I hope we can land him for 4/60M range.

[notin]

With Kimbrel market stalling and his asking price drop, I hope we can land him for 4/60M range.

 

For all this talk about relief pitcher prices, the market seems better for closers than in previous years. Pitchers like Familia are barely paid barely better than set up guys like Joe Kelly...

[moonslav59]

With Kimbrel market stalling and his asking price drop, I hope we can land him for 4/60M range.

 

That would put us way over the $40M penalty line (for the second year in a row).

 

Also, if you look at what some RP'ers have signed for, so far, I doubt Kimbrel ends up with just $60M/4.

 

$30M/3 Familia

$25M/2 Miller

$25M/3 J Kelly

$15M/2 J Soria

$8M/2 Jesse Chavez

 

I think Kimbrel gets at least $74M/4 or $85M/5.

 

(I would not even pay $64M/4 for any closer in MLB right now.)

 

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

That would put us way over the $40M penalty line (for the second year in a row).

 

Also, if you look at what some RP'ers have signed for, so far, I doubt Kimbrel ends up with just $60M/4.

 

$30M/3 Familia

$25M/2 Miller

$25M/3 J Kelly

$15M/2 J Soria

$8M/2 Jesse Chavez

 

I think Kimbrel gets at least $74M/4 or $85M/5.

 

(I would not even pay $64M/4 for any closer in MLB right now.)

 

 

I think Kimbrel is in for a big letdown. His numbers were just not very good last year, especially when you include his postseason numbers, which were downright horrible of course.

 

I can definitely see him having to settle for $60 million.

[moonslav59]

I think Kimbrel is in for a big letdown. His numbers were just not very good last year, especially when you include his postseason numbers, which were downright horrible of course.

 

I can definitely see him having to settle for $60 million.

 

There is no indication that FA salaries are declining. RP'er salaries appear to be still on the rise. If you look at what the best closers are getting these days, one should expect Kimbrel will make at least $17-18M x more than 4 years. To me, the minimum he might see is $17M x 4, which is close to your number, but even that is too much for the Sox, who have too many better and younger players reaching free agency soon. We need the money for them NOT Kimbrel.

 

IMO, Kimbrel's biggest problem is not his inconsistent 2018, it is the fact that the Yanks and Dodgers both have an expensive closer.

[dgalehouse]

Hard to predict what Kimbrel will get . Most of the big spending contenders are set at closer . How much is a team like Atlanta willing to spend ?

[dgalehouse]

I think Kimbrel is in for a big letdown. His numbers were just not very good last year, especially when you include his postseason numbers, which were downright horrible of course.

 

I can definitely see him having to settle for $60 million.

 

Could be . Between missing spring training and the situation with his daughter he certainly had some difficulty and could realistically be expected to be better this year . Then there was the pitch tipping thing . I just watched World Series Game 1 again , and he looked as dominant as ever in that one . But his initial asking price is ridiculous. He will not get anything close to that.

[dgalehouse]

There is no indication that FA salaries are declining. RP'er salaries appear to be still on the rise. If you look at what the best closers are getting these days, one should expect Kimbrel will make at least $17-18M x more than 4 years. To me, the minimum he might see is $17M x 4, which is close to your number, but even that is too much for the Sox, who have too many better and younger players reaching free agency soon. We need the money for them NOT Kimbrel.

 

IMO, Kimbrel's biggest problem is not his inconsistent 2018, it is the fact that the Yanks and Dodgers both have an expensive closer.

Of course we have to plan for future spending needs . However , you don't want to have a terrific team only to have some jabroni blowing games at the end . We need someone we can count on to close. In lieu of Kimbrel, my choice would be Britton . He would come at least a little cheaper . Trusting the job to an Ottavino would be risky. I am not enamored with Cody Allen at all.

[moonslav59]

Of course we have to plan for future spending needs . However , you don't want to have a terrific team only to have some jabroni blowing games at the end . We need someone we can count on to close. In lieu of Kimbrel, my choice would be Britton . He would come at least a little cheaper . Trusting the job to an Ottavino would be risky. I am not enamored with Cody Allen at all.

 

I think between Ottavino, Brasier, Thornburg and Barnes, one can do well enough to keep us as the faves.

 

I know it's a gamble, but signing Kimbrel is a big gamble, too.

[dgalehouse]

I think between Ottavino, Brasier, Thornburg and Barnes, one can do well enough to keep us as the faves.

 

I know it's a gamble, but signing Kimbrel is a big gamble, too.

 

Well , signing Kimbrel or Britton or any proven closer is a gamble that could backfire . But Ottavino , Brasier , Thornburg and Barnes had a combined total of six saves this past season. And a combined grand total of 32 saves for their careers . Depending on one of them to do the job this coming year is a bigger gamble that is quite likely to backfire . I would prefer to see them as set up men for a proven closer .

[moonslav59]

Well , signing Kimbrel or Britton or any proven closer is a gamble that could backfire . But Ottavino , Brasier , Thornburg and Barnes had a combined total of six saves this past season. And a combined grand total of 32 saves for their careers . Depending on one of them to do the job this coming year is a bigger gamble that is quite likely to backfire . I would prefer to see them as set up men for a proven closer .

 

Of course Ottavino is a much bigger gamble than Kimbrel, but the cost and length of contract would lessen future problems, while arguably, we'll still be a favorite in 2019 without Kimbrel.

 

[dgalehouse]

Ottavino has good stuff. But he is three years older than Kimbrel, and has never , ever been in his class as a closer. I don't see that changing. I don't know about being the favorites, but our chances of success would be less with Ottavino as the closer. If Kimbrel is too expensive, Britton would be the best alternative. I definitely want to defend our title with a proven closer. Not an area to pinch pennies. I am not in agreement with those who think the ninth inning is just another three outs. Closing ain't easy. Let's not jeopardize our chances for a repeat by trying to economize in this vital area.

[notin]

Well , signing Kimbrel or Britton or any proven closer is a gamble that could backfire . But Ottavino , Brasier , Thornburg and Barnes had a combined total of six saves this past season. And a combined grand total of 32 saves for their careers . Depending on one of them to do the job this coming year is a bigger gamble that is quite likely to backfire . I would prefer to see them as set up men for a proven closer .

 

 

But it’s not just about the ninth inning. And the logic of “closing isn’t easy” is based on what? Not like any of us have been out in the ninth inning with men on base and Mike Trout up. How is closing different than any other non-mop up relief role?

 

Really, I’d rather see a high leverage pitcher. The game isn’t always on the line in the ninth. It isn’t. A 3-run lead means a pitcher has to get 3 outs before giving up 3 runs. This is something every major league caliber pitcher can do the overwhelming majority of the time. But protecting a 1 run lead with men on second and third, one out and the 3-4-5 hitters up? Now THAT is a job for Kimbrel or whoever. And don’t pinch the pennies there...

[moonslav59]

Ottavino has good stuff. But he is three years older than Kimbrel, and has never , ever been in his class as a closer. I don't see that changing. I don't know about being the favorites, but our chances of success would be less with Ottavino as the closer. If Kimbrel is too expensive, Britton would be the best alternative. I definitely want to defend our title with a proven closer. Not an area to pinch pennies. I am not in agreement with those who think the ninth inning is just another three outs. Closing ain't easy. Let's not jeopardize our chances for a repeat by trying to economize in this vital area.

 

If Henry is fine with spending way more than any other team for 2-4 years straight, then I'm all for it.

 

I get how winning now makes sense as our window is closing quickly, but if fiscal responsibility is a priority, then I'd choose to keep Bogey, Betts or others over having Kimbrel for 4 years post prime.

 

[Kimmi]

I think Kimbrel is in for a big letdown. His numbers were just not very good last year, especially when you include his postseason numbers, which were downright horrible of course.

 

I can definitely see him having to settle for $60 million.

 

I agree. I don't think Kimbrel is going to get anywhere near what he was originally asking.

[Kimmi]

I've said it before and I'll say it again.

 

We do not have to spend a boatload in order to get a very good closer.

[oldtimer]

I've said it before and I'll say it again.

 

We do not have to spend a boatload in order to get a very good closer.

 

DD is probably in agreement with that line of thinking, but I do think he will go to the FA market for a closer and fill in on the rp from our minor leagues. There will be time to make adjustments if that fails.

[dgalehouse]

But it’s not just about the ninth inning. And the logic of “closing isn’t easy” is based on what? Not like any of us have been out in the ninth inning with men on base and Mike Trout up. How is closing different than any other non-mop up relief role?

 

Really, I’d rather see a high leverage pitcher. The game isn’t always on the line in the ninth. It isn’t. A 3-run lead means a pitcher has to get 3 outs before giving up 3 runs. This is something every major league caliber pitcher can do the overwhelming majority of the time. But protecting a 1 run lead with men on second and third, one out and the 3-4-5 hitters up? Now THAT is a job for Kimbrel or whoever. And don’t pinch the pennies there...

 

Well , a game can be won or lost in any of the innings. And I absolutely understand that there is a school of thought that says bring your best reliever in as early as the sixth or seventh to get out of a jam. I happen to believe that there is a particular difficulty in getting the last three outs . Everything is amped up and there is a finality to it that creates extra pressure. I think most people in the game agree with this. That is why there has not been too much change in this area.

[harmony]

I've said it before and I'll say it again.

 

We do not have to spend a boatload in order to get a very good closer.

The CBS Sports fantasy baseball website projects Red Sox reliever Ryan Brasier with a 1.56 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 35 saves in 2019.

 

That's optimistic.

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Brasier with 28 and 34 saves, respectively, each with a 3.93 ERA:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5615&position=P

 

Marcel projects Brasier with a 3.43 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and only one save:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brasiry01.shtml

Edited December 24, 2018 by harmony

[moonslav59]

I've said it before and I'll say it again.

 

We do not have to spend a boatload in order to get a very good closer.

 

Through free agency, you do. Familia got $30M/3. To me, that's a boatload for a good (not great) closer.

[notin]

Well , a game can be won or lost in any of the innings. And I absolutely understand that there is a school of thought that says bring your best reliever in as early as the sixth or seventh to get out of a jam. I happen to believe that there is a particular difficulty in getting the last three outs . Everything is amped up and there is a finality to it that creates extra pressure. I think most people in the game agree with this. That is why there has not been too much change in this area.

 

I think by the time most pitchers get to the majors, the whole concept of dealing with pressure is in their past. If you can’t do it, you’re not in the majors anyway.

 

As for the last three, none of us knows if there’s more pressure than or not. And saying “most people “ in the game would agree” is 100% conjecture. You didn’t ask any of them and I didn’t expect you to.

 

The whole idea of extra pressure in the role seems to only be supporters by the short leash typically given to new closers. Blow a save? Next! Most closers’ numbers seem to be consistent with any they had as non-closing relievers and the ones that differ usually only do so per sample size...

[Emp9]

Through free agency, you do. Familia got $30M/3. To me, that's a boatload for a good (not great) closer.

 

And he'll be their setup man most likely.