And the off season begins (2018-19)

[Nick]

I've said it before and I'll say it again.

 

We do not have to spend a boatload in order to get a very good closer.

 

 

Let's see what we have in Barnes and Brasier.

 

'Save' stat is overrated. There are too many gratuitous saves given out.

[notin]

Let's see what we have in Barnes and Brasier.

 

'Save' stat is overrated. There are too many gratuitous saves given out.

 

I’d rather have two lights out set up guys than one lights out closer...

[moonslav59]

I’d rather have two lights out set up guys than one lights out closer...

 

I tend to agree, but can we call either Barnes or Brasier a lights out set-up man? Can we realistically hope one of them will be in 2019?

 

What chance does Thornburg have?

[Jasonbay44]

Brasier has very little track record and Barnes has been inconsistent his whole career.

[notin]

I tend to agree, but can we call either Barnes or Brasier a lights out set-up man? Can we realistically hope one of them will be in 2019?

 

What chance does Thornburg have?

 

No idea about Thornburg, but the fact DD offered arbitration does mean he’s probably in better shape Than I realize.

 

And as for the Sox pen, I would prefer Ottavino and Kelly over Kimbrel, given the anticipated contracts...

[a700hitter]

I've said it before and I'll say it again.

 

We do not have to spend a boatload in order to get a very good closer.

We have never won 3 consecutive divisions. Four in a row and back to back Championships would make the decade perfect for me. Since we are in a window period, let’s get a top closer to give us the best chance at the back to back Championships. Why roll the dice on an unknown in a window period when the team is stacked with talent.

[moonslav59]

We have never won 3 consecutive divisions. Four in a row and back to back Championships would make the decade perfect for me. Since we are in a window period, let’s get a top closer to give us the best chance at the back to back Championships. Why roll the dice on an unknown in a window period when the team is stacked with talent.

 

I can see your point, but unless Henry agrees to pay these huge taxes for several more years, I'm not sure I'm for giving up even more of our future for one more year...maybe two.

 

[oldtimer]

I can see your point, but unless Henry agrees to pay these huge taxes for several more years, I'm not sure I'm for giving up even more of our future for one more year...maybe two.

 

 

Ultimately I think DD will look for a closer in the FA market that will keep us under the upper limit on the luxury tax. I think he will try to go with our minor league prospects to bolster the BP.

[notin]

We have never won 3 consecutive divisions. Four in a row and back to back Championships would make the decade perfect for me. Since we are in a window period, let’s get a top closer to give us the best chance at the back to back Championships. Why roll the dice on an unknown in a window period when the team is stacked with talent.

 

Because Dombrowski is apparently saying a top notch closer is not in the budget...

[notin]

Ultimately I think DD will look for a closer in the FA market that will keep us under the upper limit on the luxury tax. I think he will try to go with our minor league prospects to bolster the BP.

 

Which ones? And the answer is clearly NOT Durbin Feltman, as he was not added to the 40-man roster with space still available.

 

I think DD brings in a reliever or two, and that number depends on whether or not Thornburg has anything left...

[notin]

Brasier has very little track record and Barnes has been inconsistent his whole career.

 

 

I have my doubts about Brasier.

 

The guy is 31 and has been bouncing around the minors for more than a full decade. And that he suddenly has figured out what it takes to not only make the majors, but to excel there? That he is a flash in the pan is a serious possibility....

[Dojji]

I've said it before and I'll say it again.

 

We do not have to spend a boatload in order to get a very good closer.

 

And you can say it again and again until you're blue in the face and it will still be truth that the path to the best possible closer involves considering all options, including the expensive ones!

 

You can't take options out of the solution pool arbitrarily and then demand the best possible outcome. And we are NOT in a situation where "good enough" is good enough!

[Dojji]

I tend to agree, but can we call either Barnes or Brasier a lights out set-up man? Can we realistically hope one of them will be in 2019?

 

What chance does Thornburg have?

 

I don't like the idea of counting on our relievers to step up into newer, bigger roles when our bullpen inclusive of Kelly and Kimbrel was not exactly a world beater as it was.

 

This strikes me as an attempt to use hope as a substitute for an actual solution to our bullpen issues, and I can see why that feels like a good solution, because it has the benefit of being very easy. But if you do that you're basically rolling the dice that every single reliever in an average bullpen improves and that's.... how can I put this gently... somewhat optimistic?

 

We were somewhat in need of a boost to the top end of the bullpen even with Kimbrel, I felt that out setup options were underwhelming and there never seemed to be that other guy you could trust in the 9th when Kimbrel was marginal, I'm sure that contributed to his issues at the end of the year. Now picture the same thing with even less depth and one fewer reliable options at the back end.

 

If we don't add to this pen, and add a good arm at that we're running a pretty serious risk of another 2003 campaign. Or perhaps 2012 where we were convinced that we didn't have to pay Papelbon and all we needed to do to have a satisfactory situation at closer is promote Aceves and he'd be fine. How'd that one end? Because that's exactly the mistake we're making now it we convince ourselves that we can go ahead and NOT replace a closer and key setup man in a bullpen that already wasn't fantastic.

Edited December 26, 2018 by Dojji

[jacksonianmarch]

If you go into the season with your pen as is, you might end up okay. You might end up great. But you also might end up abhorrent. Brasier looked great in 2018, but there’s a reason he was in the minors in Japan. He put it together for the first time in his life at 30. What are the chances he come out and loses the zone again? Probably pretty high? You guy talk about Brasier like he’s a sure thing, but he very possibly could be Aaron Small or Shawn Chacon and the bloom could fall off the rose. Barnes has a heck of a season from a peripherals perspective, but he’s always been homer prone and that’s a deathknell of a bullpen. Limiting homeruns, especially for a closer, is paramount. Listen, I understand the predicament. If you bring Kimbrel back, you’re making one more run at this and then the gang will fall apart. But it leaves your team with few holes heading into 2019. Or you can have holes going into 2019 but better keep the band together thereafter without Kimbrel on the books

[a700hitter]

If you go into the season with your pen as is, you might end up okay. You might end up great. But you also might end up abhorrent. Brasier looked great in 2018, but there’s a reason he was in the minors in Japan. He put it together for the first time in his life at 30. What are the chances he come out and loses the zone again? Probably pretty high? You guy talk about Brasier like he’s a sure thing, but he very possibly could be Aaron Small or Shawn Chacon and the bloom could fall off the rose. Barnes has a heck of a season from a peripherals perspective, but he’s always been homer prone and that’s a deathknell of a bullpen. Limiting homeruns, especially for a closer, is paramount. Listen, I understand the predicament. If you bring Kimbrel back, you’re making one more run at this and then the gang will fall apart. But it leaves your team with few holes heading into 2019. Or you can have holes going into 2019 but better keep the band together thereafter without Kimbrel on the books

DD will go into the season with an established closer. He can build the rest of the pen on the fly. Everything else is already in place.

[moonslav59]

Ultimately I think DD will look for a closer in the FA market that will keep us under the upper limit on the luxury tax. I think he will try to go with our minor league prospects to bolster the BP.

 

I think we have about $5M left after signing Eovaldi & Pearce. What closer can you get for $5M? What if we need to pick-up someone mid season?

[moonslav59]

DD will go into the season with an established closer. He can build the rest of the pen on the fly. Everything else is already in place.

 

I think we trade for a solid closer who does not put us over the $40M line.

[notin]

And you can say it again and again until you're blue in the face and it will still be truth that the path to the best possible closer involves considering all options, including the expensive ones!

 

You can't take options out of the solution pool arbitrarily and then demand the best possible outcome. And we are NOT in a situation where "good enough" is good enough!

 

And you can tell Kimmi that until you’re blue in the face. But she isn’t the one looking into the discount closer market.

 

We also shouldn’t play the game that “most expensive” or “most experienced” means “best.” Jim Johnson is an experienced closer. Shawn Kelley is an experienced closer. Matt Barnes is not. Does this mean Johnson and Kelley are better options than Barnes?

[a700hitter]

I think we trade for a solid closer who does not put us over the $40M line.

I don’t know what route DD will take, but I am confidant that he will not half ass it and cross his fingers. He’ll get someone solid.

[notin]

DD will go into the season with an established closer. He can build the rest of the pen on the fly. Everything else is already in place.

 

 

I think he will go in with the best option he can this season.

 

But unlike fans, the GM can’t always and shouldn’t always just go for it . As a fan we can think “ the window is closing soon!! Let’s not pinch pennies.” But the GM really can’t always do that, and sometimes he has to do things like pinch pennies today in order to keep that window open for another year or two.

 

If signing Kimbrel today, for example, means losing Bogaerts at the end of the season, is it worth it? And will you be thinking that if the 2020 season really misses Bogaerts? If you complained at all at any point in 2014, you’re lying if you say “Kimbrel is worth it if we win it all.”...

[Bellhorn04]

If signing Kimbrel today, for example, means losing Bogaerts at the end of the season, is it worth it? And will you be thinking that if the 2020 season really misses Bogaerts? If you complained at all at any point in 2014, you’re lying if you say “Kimbrel is worth it if we win it all.”...

 

Kind of a false equivalency, I think. Bogaerts is going to be looking for $200 million or so. Signing Kimbrel wouldn't be the difference-maker in keeping Bogey or not. It's not like if we sign Kimbrel we'll have an expensive bullpen compared to other teams. Right now we have a very inexpensive bullpen.

[oldtimer]

I think we trade for a solid closer who does not put us over the $40M line.

 

Who do we trade? Won't we have to free up some cap space to make a trade work? I would think Swihart, possibly Moreland would allow us some roon to take on a $10 mil contract. But then, are we sure we won't need help at 2nd base? Pedey is still and unknow and the first information is likely to come in at the beginning of January. DD needs to be careful with his moved, assuming they don't want to go over the second tier of the luxury tax threshhold.

[notin]

Who do we trade? Won't we have to free up some cap space to make a trade work? I would think Swihart, possibly Moreland would allow us some roon to take on a $10 mil contract. But then, are we sure we won't need help at 2nd base? Pedey is still and unknow and the first information is likely to come in at the beginning of January. DD needs to be careful with his moved, assuming they don't want to go over the second tier of the luxury tax threshhold.

 

The cap room requirement depends on what the closer makes. If the Sox look into AJ Minter or Josh Heder, the money is not so much. The cost in prospects, however, might be. A buy-low opportunity like Corey Knebel seems more like a better fit in terms of low salary, lesser (but not non-existent) prospect cost. But the trade-off there is he was not so good in 2018 (after a stellar 2017)...

[Kimmi]

DD is probably in agreement with that line of thinking, but I do think he will go to the FA market for a closer and fill in on the rp from our minor leagues. There will be time to make adjustments if that fails.

 

Actually, I'm not sure that Dombrowski agrees with my line of thinking. I think that he feels like we need that superstar closer in the bullpen, and his willingness to give up what he gave up for Kimbrel attests to that.

 

I do not believe for a minute that Dombrowski is okay with letting Brasier and Barnes fight it out for the closer's role. He will bring in an established closer.

[Kimmi]

The CBS Sports fantasy baseball website projects Red Sox reliever Ryan Brasier with a 1.56 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 35 saves in 2019.

 

That's optimistic.

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Brasier with 28 and 34 saves, respectively, each with a 3.93 ERA:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5615&position=P

 

Marcel projects Brasier with a 3.43 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and only one save:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brasiry01.shtml

 

I like the CBS Sports fantasy projections.

 

I guess that as of now, Brasier is our closer. Personally, I'd be okay with that, though I'm sure that I'm alone in that sentiment.

 

As I stated above, I don't believe that Dombrowski is okay with that, despite what he says.

[Kimmi]

Through free agency, you do. Familia got $30M/3. To me, that's a boatload for a good (not great) closer.

 

GMs are willing to spend money on these well known relievers who are established closers. They need to dig a little deeper, IMO.

 

That said, signing a closer to a 2 year deal, even if the AAV is a little higher, would be preferable to signing one to a 4 year deal.

[Bellhorn04]

I like the CBS Sports fantasy projections.

 

I guess that as of now, Brasier is our closer. Personally, I'd be okay with that, though I'm sure that I'm alone in that sentiment.

 

As I stated above, I don't believe that Dombrowski is okay with that, despite what he says.

 

As I said in the other thread, this is not just DD's MO. It's no different from what Theo or Ben would do in this position, if you look at their histories.

[Kimmi]

Let's see what we have in Barnes and Brasier.

 

'Save' stat is overrated. There are too many gratuitous saves given out.

 

In the immortal words of David Cassidy, I think I love you.

[Kimmi]

We have never won 3 consecutive divisions. Four in a row and back to back Championships would make the decade perfect for me. Since we are in a window period, let’s get a top closer to give us the best chance at the back to back Championships. Why roll the dice on an unknown in a window period when the team is stacked with talent.

 

I never said not to get a top closer. I just said that you don't have to pay a boatload for one.

[Kimmi]

Because Dombrowski is apparently saying a top notch closer is not in the budget...

 

A top notch closer is in our budget. Dombrowski and team just need to identify him.