Dave Dombrowski

[Hitch]

Ben is one flash in the pan, lucky as hell 2013 season away from being a total flop on the field as a GM. This 2018 team had two consecutive ALE titles under their belts coming into the season then rattled off 108 wins and a 12-3 postseason record. That’s 120-57. Ben got lucky on the field. DD built a damn juggernaut. Ben was paralyzed as to when to go for it. When he did go for it, he rushed it and got Fas that weren’t top tier. He was afraid to deal from his surplus of minor league talent. DD took over and essentially said, “Hey kid, this is how you go for it.” I said early in his tenure that Dave’s tenure will be punctuated by a big rise and a huge fall, butnif he takes a title, he’ll be immortalized and his plan will have worked. 2018 did that for him

 

You're right. He would have been a total flop if it wasn't for his great trades, his great drafting and use of the International players and winning a World Series. If only he hadn't come here and left a foundation for the most dominant team in Red Sox history and ANOTHER World Series.

Edited October 31, 2018 by Hitch

[Tedballgame]

If DD was truly "going for it" he would have gotten Cora a little bullpen help at the deadline.

I think the starters, Porcello and Eovaldi in particular, and Cora should get the lion's share of credit for keeping the bullpen afloat during the playoffs.

 

It seems to me that Dave knew Eovaldi could pitch in the bullpen and I would guess he had already had conversations with Cora about using starters in relief in the playoffs. That made the bullpen much, much stronger. Plus, he had faith in Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes and Braiser. DD knows more than you, I, the fans and the media. He went for it. He won it. He did it. Let the parade begin.

[SoxnCycles]

It seems to me that Dave knew Eovaldi could pitch in the bullpen and I would guess he had already had conversations with Cora about using starters in relief in the playoffs. That made the bullpen much, much stronger. Plus, he had faith in Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes and Braiser. DD knows more than you, I, the fans and the media. He went for it. He won it. He did it. Let the parade begin.

 

In July?

Ok...

[oldtimer]

Ben is one flash in the pan, lucky as hell 2013 season away from being a total flop on the field as a GM. This 2018 team had two consecutive ALE titles under their belts coming into the season then rattled off 108 wins and a 12-3 postseason record. That’s 120-57. Ben got lucky on the field. DD built a damn juggernaut. Ben was paralyzed as to when to go for it. When he did go for it, he rushed it and got Fas that weren’t top tier. He was afraid to deal from his surplus of minor league talent. DD took over and essentially said, “Hey kid, this is how you go for it.” I said early in his tenure that Dave’s tenure will be punctuated by a big rise and a huge fall, butnif he takes a title, he’ll be immortalized and his plan will have worked. 2018 did that for him

 

I don't see the big fall off coming in 2019. We may put a team on the field that is very similar to that of 2018 and we know how that went.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't see the big fall off coming in 2019. We may put a team on the field that is very similar to that of 2018 and we know how that went.

 

It isn't coming in 2019. The sox will have about $25 mil to spend this offseason, which they may put towards Eovaldi or Kimbrel or someone else. The big fall off comes after 2019, when Sale, JD, JBJ, Porcello, and Bogaerts become FA's.

[notin]

Not JBJ, and possibly not JDM...

[jacksonianmarch]

Rotoworld and Spotrac are disagreeing on when JBJ is a free agent. I usually use rotoworld.

 

JDM will be a FA unless he has a catastrophically bad 2019. I would say you should hope JD opts out. That would mean he had a good 2019

[Slasher9]

Ben is one flash in the pan, lucky as hell 2013 season away from being a total flop on the field as a GM. This 2018 team had two consecutive ALE titles under their belts coming into the season then rattled off 108 wins and a 12-3 postseason record. That’s 120-57. Ben got lucky on the field. DD built a damn juggernaut. Ben was paralyzed as to when to go for it. When he did go for it, he rushed it and got Fas that weren’t top tier. He was afraid to deal from his surplus of minor league talent. DD took over and essentially said, “Hey kid, this is how you go for it.” I said early in his tenure that Dave’s tenure will be punctuated by a big rise and a huge fall, butnif he takes a title, he’ll be immortalized and his plan will have worked. 2018 did that for him

11-3.

We didn’t need no stinkin playin game....

[Nick]

Rotoworld and Spotrac are disagreeing on when JBJ is a free agent. I usually use rotoworld.

 

JDM will be a FA unless he has a catastrophically bad 2019. I would say you should hope JD opts out. That would mean he had a good 2019

 

JBJ is a four year arb guy. He become FA with Betts.

 

You are right about others.

Porcello, Price, Xander, and JD will have option to opt out twice, either after 2019 or 2020.

 

This is why I'd like to see the Sox sign Eovaldi. We can let Porcello go and try to sign Sale and Xander. With Pablo's $18M, Moreland's $6.5M and Porcello's $20M, we'll have $43M to sign Sale, JD and Xander. Remember, we're talking 'delta'. These three guys are already making decent money.

[jacksonianmarch]

You’ll need all $43 mil delta to keep those guys then you’ll have to re-sign Betts the following year. DD is gonna proper this thing open for as long as he can.

 

I do wonder if the Sox re-sign Sale. He’s got issues with his shoulder, his body habitus and his endurance. I think they say goodbye after 2019 unless he shows those issues are in the past

[Nick]

You’ll need all $43 mil delta to keep those guys then you’ll have to re-sign Betts the following year. DD is gonna proper this thing open for as long as he can.

 

I do wonder if the Sox re-sign Sale. He’s got issues with his shoulder, his body habitus and his endurance. I think they say goodbye after 2019 unless he shows those issues are in the past

 

I agree with you. Pitchers are so fragile these days. Pitching must be an unnatural motion. Maybe it'll be more durable Porcello we end up signing. This may sound stupid but someone should open up a Knuckleball Academy.

Teach younger players to throw a knuckleball. No base running though.

Edited October 31, 2018 by Nick

[Kimmi]

Agreed.

 

Once they bungled the Lester negotiations, I liked the idea of the fire sale.

 

I was puzzled by the Cespedes return, but when we got Porcello and extended him, I was fully on board.

 

I loved the Miller for ERod deal, but I had hoped we could re-sign Miller.

 

I loved the 1 year of Lackey for 5 years of Kelly, and I also thought maybe Craig could be our solution to the 1B issue.

 

I liked the Peavy for Hembree & Escobar trade and Doubront for Marco Hernandez.

 

I called the Dodger dump one of the greatest Red Sox trades in history.

 

I even liked the Miley trade.

 

It's Ben's signings that sucked. Even the ones that worked, like Vic and Dempster were at least a year too long.

 

I more or less agree with what you've posted here. What I liked about most of Ben's FA signings is that were relatively short term. I was fully on board with the Hanley signing. I didn't think a 4 year contract for a player of his caliber (at the time of the signing) was a bad deal. The Pablo signing was bad, though I'm convinced that that was not Ben's doing. Even so, I understand the rationale for signing him.

[Kimmi]

Ben is one flash in the pan, lucky as hell 2013 season away from being a total flop on the field as a GM. This 2018 team had two consecutive ALE titles under their belts coming into the season then rattled off 108 wins and a 12-3 postseason record. That’s 120-57. Ben got lucky on the field. DD built a damn juggernaut. Ben was paralyzed as to when to go for it. When he did go for it, he rushed it and got Fas that weren’t top tier. He was afraid to deal from his surplus of minor league talent. DD took over and essentially said, “Hey kid, this is how you go for it.” I said early in his tenure that Dave’s tenure will be punctuated by a big rise and a huge fall, butnif he takes a title, he’ll be immortalized and his plan will have worked. 2018 did that for him

 

Dombrowski does not get to where he is with the Red Sox today without Ben's foundation.

[Kimmi]

You're right. He would have been a total flop if it wasn't for his great trades, his great drafting and use of the International players and winning a World Series. If only he hadn't come here and left a foundation for the most dominant team in Red Sox history and ANOTHER World Series.

 

Ha.

[Kimmi]

Not JBJ, and possibly not JDM...

 

JD may or may not opt out, but what I hope the Sox don't do is renegotiate JD's contract to more years. The thing that was so great about his signing was the reasonable length of the contract.

[cp176]

The comparison GM thing just keeps on giving. We currently have at the helm as good a GM as there is in baseball. That works for me. I am overjoyed that he came along when he did. Our future is in good hands.

[cp176]

I agree with you. Pitchers are so fragile these days. Pitching must be an unnatural motion. Maybe it'll be more durable Porcello we end up signing. This may sound stupid but someone should open up a Knuckleball Academy.

Teach younger players to throw a knuckleball. No base running though.

 

I think that he comes back fine next year and seriously if Chris Sale has a fastball that tops out at 95 or 96 mph combined with the rest of the nasty s*** he throws, suiters will line up to sign him. They probably won't even care a whole lot whether some of our posters think that he is too light, too tall, or even too fragile. He can and likely will continue pitching at a high level for some time. I hope that it is with Boston. We need players like him. WINNERS

[notin]

JD may or may not opt out, but what I hope the Sox don't do is renegotiate JD's contract to more years. The thing that was so great about his signing was the reasonable length of the contract.

 

Exactly.

 

After his first year, it certainly looked like Price would opt out. One year later, we all knew there was no chance...

[moonslav59]

I don't see the big fall off coming in 2019. We may put a team on the field that is very similar to that of 2018 and we know how that went.

 

Depending on when (notice I didn't say if) Henry decides to reset, I've been guessing all along it will be after 2020 for the major decision point of our GM and owner.

[jacksonianmarch]

Here’s the timeline...

 

2019- championship caliber team, able to stay around upper level lux tax limit with a fair amount of useful depth on offensive side. Pitching should be top notch assuming Sale’s health. Pen to take a bit of a hit, likely to improve in season with callups or trades.

 

2020- much more long term cash pumped in, stay top level with less contingencies. Spots that used to have quality regulars or good role players now have fill in/throw away level players (like 2b, 1b). Injuries or ineffectiveness will be far more apparent. This will be the first year where a depleted farm will show on the big league field. If everyone stays healthy, theyll be good. One big injury and it’ll be felt considerab. Pen will be patchwork

 

2021- reallocation of resources. Core is maintained with Betts, Beni, Bogey, Bradley?, Devers. Big fall off seen on the pitching front. Drift towards mediocrity. Sell off of more expensive but still useful parts. Dombrowski exits after the season to leave the rebuild to someone else

 

2022- year to pump more money in or just blow it up

[jacksonianmarch]

And the above coincides with the fall of Houston and Cleveland and the rise of NYY. If things break right, the Yanks could be looking at a solid window of contention where our team comes into its own while the current titans in the AL fade.

[notin]

And the above coincides with the fall of Houston and Cleveland and the rise of NYY. If things break right, the Yanks could be looking at a solid window of contention where our team comes into its own while the current titans in the AL fade.

 

So “ Wait till next year!” can be replaced by “Wait till 4 years from now!!” ?

[Dojji]

The Yankee core is no younger than the Red Sox core. The very same pressures you're talking to vis-a-vis the Red Sox will also be affecting NYY.

 

Also, the Red Sox core has inexpensive players at a few key positions right now. Whether we dive off a cliff really depends on our ability to continue to find diamonds in the rough to augment the core, like we did this year with Brazier, Eovaldi and Pearce.

[Bellhorn04]

Here’s the timeline...

 

2019- championship caliber team, able to stay around upper level lux tax limit with a fair amount of useful depth on offensive side. Pitching should be top notch assuming Sale’s health. Pen to take a bit of a hit, likely to improve in season with callups or trades.

 

2020- much more long term cash pumped in, stay top level with less contingencies. Spots that used to have quality regulars or good role players now have fill in/throw away level players (like 2b, 1b). Injuries or ineffectiveness will be far more apparent. This will be the first year where a depleted farm will show on the big league field. If everyone stays healthy, theyll be good. One big injury and it’ll be felt considerab. Pen will be patchwork

 

2021- reallocation of resources. Core is maintained with Betts, Beni, Bogey, Bradley?, Devers. Big fall off seen on the pitching front. Drift towards mediocrity. Sell off of more expensive but still useful parts. Dombrowski exits after the season to leave the rebuild to someone else

 

2022- year to pump more money in or just blow it up

 

Your predictions are predictable.

[Dojji]

The chart is long gone, but its legacy endures

[jacksonianmarch]

You couldn’t be more wrong Dojji. The age isn’t the issue. The years of control are where it’s at. We don’t have to worry about FA for Judge or Sanchez for 4 years. Torres 6 years. Andujar 5 years. Severino 4 years. That’s where a window comes in.

[jacksonianmarch]

Your heads are in the sand. And you’re right to have them there. You did just win a title. Your 2019 team has something like $25 mil to play with. You are losing some valuable talent in Eovaldi, Kelly, Pearce and Kimbrel. You can not retain them all. Your 2019 team will not be as good as the 2018 due to the attrition. And it’s kinda hard to stay 108 wins level good, ie it doesn’t happen. But will the 2019 team be a 92-100 win club with the changes, I assume so.

 

Our window is propped open as long as our cheap talent is under control. Even through arbitration, the salaries are far less than the FA salaries. We have to decide on 2 players after 2019 in Didi and Hicks. From there, we don’t have cheap attrition until Judge, Sanchez and Severino hit the market before 2023. On the contrary, Tanaka and Ellsbury are FAs after 2020. Stanton can opt out after 2020 as well, although I think that’s unlikely.

[Bellhorn04]

You couldn’t be more wrong Dojji. The age isn’t the issue. The years of control are where it’s at. We don’t have to worry about FA for Judge or Sanchez for 4 years. Torres 6 years. Andujar 5 years. Severino 4 years. That’s where a window comes in.

 

Judge: good to great player

Sanchez: lousy catcher, one-dimensional hitter

Torres: too early to call

Andujar: too early

Severino: some nasty signs in second half and postseason

[Bellhorn04]

Your heads are in the sand.

 

And you're biased as heck, bordering on blind homer.

 

You were telling us early in 2018 that you had 5 starters in the minors who were already good enough to be big leagues starters. You were talking about guys like Cessa, Adams and Sheffield and the other flameouts when you were talking crap like this.

[jacksonianmarch]

That’s just dumb.

 

Too early on Andujar and Torres? They’re gonna be 1-2 in ROY.

 

Severino has been one of the best pitchers in the AL over the last two seasons. Yes he faded late. So did Sale, right?

 

Sanchez is a one dimensional hitter. He’s not a good catcher. He is a far better hitter than he was this year.

 

Judge is a great player. He was 8WAR in 2017 and was on pace for a 7WAR season before he broke his wrist.

 

Cmon now, you’re better than that