A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Kimmi]

Just because Errors or ER are never charge it doesn't mean it hasn't hurt the team. There are so many hits that are not taken away by Devers and Nunez this year. For example, a game in Toronto, Porcello did not allow the ball to be hit out the infield in an inning and still get charge with 3ER. Devers and Nunez were all over that.

 

This is a fair point about Errors, which are not the best defensive measurement.

 

Devers' DRS is currently -4.

 

Nunez' DRS is currently -10.

 

Between them they have cost us roughly a game and a half defensively.

 

That said, the team is winning at a very good clip. We can afford to be patient with Devers.

[moonslav59]

Just because Errors or ER are never charge it doesn't mean it hasn't hurt the team. There are so many hits that are not taken away by Devers and Nunez this year. For example, a game in Toronto, Porcello did not allow the ball to be hit out the infield in an inning and still get charge with 3ER. Devers and Nunez were all over that.

 

There are countless plays that are not called errors that make a difference in runs scored or not scored.

 

Our defense has not been all that bad, despite 2B and 3B.

 

I'm liking what I see from Devers at 3B. He's progressed much farther than I expected, but he started out pretty damn low.

 

Holt has looked batter at 2B, but he can't play everyday and remain productive.

 

Pedey's return could be a huge boost to our defense and our offense vs lefties. I'm still hopeful, but we'll know more at the deadline.

[oldtimer]

This is a fair point about Errors, which are not the best defensive measurement.

 

Devers' DRS is currently -4.

 

Nunez' DRS is currently -10.

 

Between them they have cost us roughly a game and a half defensively.

 

That said, the team is winning at a very good clip. We can afford to be patient with Devers.

 

I wonder if the long term plan would be to move Devers to first after Moreland's contract runs out. That would be 2020 unless we do something in the trade market with Moreland. I have read that they expect Devers physique to become more solid even then now as he gets into his prime years. The Sox could pick up a talented 3rd baseman while retaining Devers. An infield of the future with Scooter Gennett at second and Chavez at third might just work better than what we have now.

[notin]

I wonder if the long term plan would be to move Devers to first after Moreland's contract runs out. That would be 2020 unless we do something in the trade market with Moreland. I have read that they expect Devers physique to become more solid even then now as he gets into his prime years. The Sox could pick up a talented 3rd baseman while retaining Devers. An infield of the future with Scooter Gennett at second and Chavez at third might just work better than what we have now.

 

Eh. They could simply bench him. The guy makes Jonny Gomes/Chris Young money...

[OH FOY]

"If I stay healthy, I have a chance at 3,000 hits, and 1,000 Errors." - George Brett

[moonslav59]

I wonder if the long term plan would be to move Devers to first after Moreland's contract runs out. That would be 2020 unless we do something in the trade market with Moreland. I have read that they expect Devers physique to become more solid even then now as he gets into his prime years. The Sox could pick up a talented 3rd baseman while retaining Devers. An infield of the future with Scooter Gennett at second and Chavez at third might just work better than what we have now.

 

I think the Moreland signing gave Devers 2 years to show enough growth at 3B or else.

 

As you all know, I'd have preferred signing Moose and having Devers DH and share time at 1B with HRam while he still got some practice and games in at 3B along the way. It's not the ideal way to grow a prospect, but I didn't like the idea of throwing Devers to the wolves by having him struggle mightily on defense at 3B in the middle of a championship run.

 

He's done better than I expected on defense, so this is another example of proof that Sox management knows a hell of a lot more than we do.

[OH FOY]

Moustakas has been slumping after fast start, and doesn't hit Lefties good either. Career .239 hitter against Lefties. This year hitting .225 against Lefties.

 

I can see him Traded any day now for Prospects. If I was him I would welcome it.

Edited June 19, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Emp9]

I think the Moreland signing gave Devers 2 years to show enough growth at 3B or else.

 

As you all know, I'd have preferred signing Moose and having Devers DH and share time at 1B with HRam while he still got some practice and games in at 3B along the way. It's not the ideal way to grow a prospect, but I didn't like the idea of throwing Devers to the wolves by having him struggle mightily on defense at 3B in the middle of a championship run.

 

He's done better than I expected on defense, so this is another example of proof that Sox management knows a hell of a lot more than we do.

 

The logic makes sense, especially if Devers sticks at 3B for the majority of his career. It’s typically easier to solve 1B, even going on short term contracts year to year or even two- three years, which we’ve done for some time now. The hot corner seems a bit trickier to solve.

[moonslav59]

Moustakas has been slumping after fast start, and doesn't hit Lefties good either. Career .239 hitter against Lefties. This year hitting .225 against Lefties.

 

I can see him Traded any day now for Prospects. If I was him I would welcome it.

 

Yes, and many of the other options that were out there have not come close to expectations.

 

2017>2018

 

.906> .838 Jose Abreu

 

.882>.829 Eric Hosmer

 

.818>.778 Carlos Santana

 

.818>.716 Lucas Duda

 

.868> .643 Logan Morrison

 

 

3B

 

.835> .792 Moustakas

 

.725>.812 Valencia

 

.772> .722T Frazier

 

.632>.798 Sandoval

 

[Kimmi]

I wonder if the long term plan would be to move Devers to first after Moreland's contract runs out. That would be 2020 unless we do something in the trade market with Moreland. I have read that they expect Devers physique to become more solid even then now as he gets into his prime years. The Sox could pick up a talented 3rd baseman while retaining Devers. An infield of the future with Scooter Gennett at second and Chavez at third might just work better than what we have now.

 

The long term plan might be to move Devers to first, but I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon, like before Moreland's contract runs out. Devers was called up before he was ready defensively, so he is more or less learning and developing on the job. While he has cost us some runs defensively, the team as a whole has not suffered. As of now, we can afford to be patient with him, and he does seem to be improving.

[Kimmi]

"If I stay healthy, I have a chance at 3,000 hits, and 1,000 Errors." - George Brett

 

LOL

 

I don't remember the exact number off the top of my head, but Beltre made a ton of errors in his first full season.

 

It is too early to write Devers off as an adequate or ever good defensive 3B.

[Maxbialystock]

I think the Moreland signing gave Devers 2 years to show enough growth at 3B or else.

 

As you all know, I'd have preferred signing Moose and having Devers DH and share time at 1B with HRam while he still got some practice and games in at 3B along the way. It's not the ideal way to grow a prospect, but I didn't like the idea of throwing Devers to the wolves by having him struggle mightily on defense at 3B in the middle of a championship run.

 

He's done better than I expected on defense, so this is another example of proof that Sox management knows a hell of a lot more than we do.

 

Most of the time you make sense and back that up with good stats, but this time you have gone beyond the pale.

 

There is no way, no how Sox management knows anywhere near as much as people on this board. That's why this thread is called "A Realistic View"--because we are the hard core people (except for me, of course) who really know this team and the players in a way that DD and Cora could not possibly know. They're both newbies.

 

Except for that, I agree with you completely and had not thought of the 2 years angle.

[Kimmi]

Most of the time you make sense and back that up with good stats, but this time you have gone beyond the pale.

 

There is no way, no how Sox management knows anywhere near as much as people on this board. That's why this thread is called "A Realistic View"--because we are the hard core people (except for me, of course) who really know this team and the players in a way that DD and Cora could not possibly know. They're both newbies.

 

Except for that, I agree with you completely and had not thought of the 2 years angle.

 

Maybe one of us is really Dombrowski and another of us is Cora!!!

 

Not me though. I'm Theo. Let me be Theo.

[moonslav59]

Maybe one of us is really Dombrowski and another of us is Cora!!!

 

Not me though. I'm Theo. Let me be Theo.

 

I thought you'd be Ben.

[Hitch]

Nah Theo has always been Kimmi's man. I think she just felt inclined to push back against some of the more absurd and childish nonsense spouted out about Ben.

[moonslav59]

Team Record in Starter Starts

 

13-1 ERod

 

10-4 Price

 

9-6 Porcello

 

8-7 Sale

 

4-4 Pomeranz (22-10 last year)

 

2-0 Velazquez

1-0 Johnson

0-1 Beeks

[moonslav59]

Team Record in Starter Starts

 

13-1 ERod

 

10-4 Price

 

9-6 Porcello

 

8-7 Sale

 

4-4 Pomeranz (22-10 last year)

 

2-0 Velazquez

1-0 Johnson

0-1 Beeks

 

Who'd have thunk we'd be tied for first place with our two best 2017 starters, Sale and Pom, combining for a 12-11 record in games they started?

[Maxbialystock]

Who'd have thunk we'd be tied for first place with our two best 2017 starters, Sale and Pom, combining for a 12-11 record in games they started?

 

Shows how important pitching depth--especially starters--can be. Sale is probably still our ace this year, but can't hardly buy a win. I don't miss Pom one bit, but am delighted Price, Porcello ERod, and Wright are able to pick up the slack.

[Bellhorn04]

Who'd have thunk we'd be tied for first place with our two best 2017 starters, Sale and Pom, combining for a 12-11 record in games they started?

 

Well, it helps if you're a big believer in randomness.

[moonslav59]

Shows how important pitching depth--especially starters--can be. Sale is probably still our ace this year, but can't hardly buy a win. I don't miss Pom one bit, but am delighted Price, Porcello ERod, and Wright are able to pick up the slack.

 

I miss the 2017 Pom and the first half 2016 Pom.

 

He's struggled to return from his injury, but he's still a quality pitcher, when healthy.

 

I was never too worried about our starter depth. Maybe, it's because I've always been high on Wright.

 

Yes, Sale is still our ace, and the records I posted shows how little wins and losses judge how well a starting pitcher has been doing.

 

Right now, I'd say our playoff rotation might look like this:

 

Game 1: Sale

Game 2: Price

Game 3: Wright

Game 4: ERod

 

Porcello on the outside looking in.

 

Much can change between now and then.

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

I miss the first half 2016 Pom.

 

You watch a lot of Padres games then?

[moonslav59]

You watch a lot of Padres games then?

 

No, but I miss those numbers. I missed them more in the second half of '16.

[oldtimer]

I wonder if the long term plan would be to move Devers to first after Moreland's contract runs out. That would be 2020 unless we do something in the trade market with Moreland. I have read that they expect Devers physique to become more solid even then now as he gets into his prime years. The Sox could pick up a talented 3rd baseman while retaining Devers. An infield of the future with Scooter Gennett at second and Chavez at third might just work better than what we have now.

 

More on the second baseman idea. I watched the Yankee/Washington game yesterday and noticed Daniel Murphy was hobbling around. It turns out he also has had microfracture surgery on his knee and is taking a long time to get back from the surgery. Looking at his play, you have to wonder if he will actually make it back to what he was. Pedroia and Murphy are close to the same age, both are second basemen and both are finding it difficult to make the return from this surgery.

[Kimmi]

I thought you'd be Ben.

 

LOL Ben would be my second choice.

[Kimmi]

Nah Theo has always been Kimmi's man. I think she just felt inclined to push back against some of the more absurd and childish nonsense spouted out about Ben.

 

You are correct, as usual.

 

I think Ben gets undue criticism and doesn't get the credit he deserves, but Theo is the man.

[Kimmi]

Well, it helps if you're a big believer in randomness.

 

I don't think anyone can deny the huge part that randomness plays in baseball. Sometimes it's called other things, like whacky, crazy, insane, but it all boils down to the same thing.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think anyone can deny the huge part that randomness plays in baseball. Sometimes it's called other things, like whacky, crazy, insane, but it all boils down to the same thing.

 

I still have to do my baseball philosophy thread. I'm just not sure what sort of reactions it will get LOL

[moonslav59]

I still have to do my baseball philosophy thread. I'm just not sure what sort of reactions it will get LOL

 

Save it for an off day, or better yet, for the allstar break.

[Bellhorn04]

Save it for an off day, or better yet, for the allstar break.

 

ASB is a good call.

[Kimmi]

I still have to do my baseball philosophy thread. I'm just not sure what sort of reactions it will get LOL

 

LOL You know I'm on board with it.