Sox hitting??

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Wouldn't I love it if Yaz could be in tomorrow.

 

Somebody mention me?

[moonslav59]

A question: if your don't believe line-up slots make a significant difference, what the heck are we arguing about?

 

Kimmi is the one who has provided studies that show line-up construction barely makes a difference.

 

I feel it does matter. You are misinterpreting my point. My point is that a small sample size showing Devers does better in the 6 or 7 slot instead of the 5 slot is near meaningless, NOT that batting him 7th vs 5th is meaningless. Your point was that batting Devers 6th instead of 5th was what was making him do better. My response was that Devers batting 5th or 6th did not affect how well he did. It was happenstance. That is different than saying it makes no difference where he bats in terms of us scoring more runs.

 

You see Devers going 4 for in the 7 slot and say, "See, I was right: he should bat 7th." I see Devers go 4 for 4 in the 7 slot and tahink, we'd have scored more runs, if he went 4 for 4 in the 4 slot instead of the 7 slot. Heck, we might score more, if he went 3 for 4 in the 4 slot vs 4 for 4 in 7 slot.

 

Where Devers bats does matter, to me. I'm not being swayed by sample sizes as low as 8 and 16 PAs. He's better than HRam and Moreland, and he should be batting 3-5 vs RHPs. I'd prefer 3 or 4.

 

 

I enjoy arguing, for one thing. But, believe me, I am normally happy with almost any lineup, especially right now thanks to your "everybody is gravitating toward the OPS mean of .750" theory. In that context, almost any lineup should work.

 

Agreed, but again, unlike Kimmi, I believe in playing the hot hand more often and in more important slots.

 

 

I like talking about the idea of any given lineup mostly because it's pre-game stuff. I like that "comfortable slot" idea, but am not wedded to it. Your numbers and reminders about Devers minor league slots are good points. Plus, as I said, I'm happy if Farrell moves him right back up to the 5th or higher slot.

 

In the heat of the moment, I will admit, I was grasping at straws when the great Devers was looking a little too human--thus the comfort zone thesis. When my prediction--moving him back down--seemed to go right, I crowed about it. But I cannot emphasize too strongly the kid has great potential, has already delivered on much of it way sooner than we expected, and can bat anywhere. You are right about that.

 

I think Devers was bound to return to earth no matter what slot they batted him in.

[Bellhorn04]

A question: if your don't believe line-up slots make a significant difference, what the heck are we arguing about?

 

I believe moon is saying it doesn't matter if, for example, Mookie is hitting 3rd or 9th as far as how he performs. But it matters as far as optimizing the lineup.

[moonslav59]

@redsoxstats

 

Chris Young is hitting .193/.302/.277 against lefties this year. Bryce Brentz is hitting .300/.411/.611 against them for Pawtucket.

 

Young has been one of the best hitters vs LHPs in MLB for 2-3 years before this year. That's solid proof he can and has done it for extended times. Brentz has a shorter time frame of success vs LHPs in the minor leagues.

 

I'd like to see Brentz called up in September and given a chance to shine, but I'm not giving up on Young yet.

 

Also, if we are going to make decisions based on just 2017 numbers, and that's what you are doing here, then Young should start vs every RHP'er.

 

2017 OPS vs RHPs:

.994 Nunez

.831 Beni

.812 Young

.807 Devers

.800 Moreland

.768 HRam

.760 Betts

.756 Pedey

.747 Bogey

.736 Vaz

.729 JBJ

 

If we went totally by lefty-righty splits in 2017, Beni would be benched vs LHPs (.656).

 

Plus, how well would any hitter do when they are asked to play as sporadically as Young?

 

Brentz plays everyday and is allowed to find and stay in a groove. Young never gets that chance.

 

He's done fine as our 4th OF'er and 2nd DH, and quite frankly, I'm baffled why his name keeps coming up so often.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Young has been one of the best hitters vs LHPs in MLB for 2-3 years before this year. That's solid proof he can and has done it for extended times. Brentz has a shorter time frame of success vs LHPs in the minor leagues.

 

I'd like to see Brentz called up in September and given a chance to shine, but I'm not giving up on Young yet.

 

Also, if we are going to make decisions based on just 2017 numbers, and that's what you are doing here, then Young should start vs every RHP'er.

 

2017 OPS vs RHPs:

.994 Nunez

.831 Beni

.812 Young

.807 Devers

.800 Moreland

.768 HRam

.760 Betts

.756 Pedey

.747 Bogey

.736 Vaz

.729 JBJ

 

If we went totally by lefty-righty splits in 2017, Beni would be benched vs LHPs (.656).

 

Plus, how well would any hitter do when they are asked to play as sporadically as Young?

 

Brentz plays everyday and is allowed to find and stay in a groove. Young never gets that chance.

 

He's done fine as our 4th OF'er and 2nd DH, and quite frankly, I'm baffled why his name keeps coming up so often.

 

 

We all get a little knee-jerky at times. You were advocating banishing Moreland to the bench not long ago.

[illinoisredsox]

The 5 hole has been death for whoever we've put in there; it's the worst hitting position on the team (by far):

 

1 .264/.332/.762

2 .284/.361/.785

3 .285/.351/.810

4 .245/.330/.755

5 .219/.310/.674

6 .284/.356/.776

7 .242/.306/.700

8 .284/.346/.773

9 .245/.311/.666

 

No one player has numbers like the 5 hole aggregate; whoever has gone in there has sucked.

Edited August 30, 2017 by illinoisredsox

[Bellhorn04]

The 5 hole has been death for whoever we've put in there; it's the worst hitting position on the team (by far):

 

1 .264/.332/.762

2 .284/.361/.785

3 .285/.351/.810

4 .245/.330/.755

5 .219/.310/.674

6 .284/.356/.776

7 .242/.306/.700

8 .284/.346/.773

9 .245/.311/.666

 

No one player has numbers like the 5 hole aggregate; whoever has gone in there has sucked.

 

That is what Kimmi would call an enigma.

[illinoisredsox]

That is what Kimmi would call an enigma.

 

wrapped in a conundrum

[moonslav59]

I get the mentality of "what have you done lately", and I do agree that is very important, but I think these numbers speak volumes:

 

ALL MLB Hitters vs LHPs from 2015-2016 (250+ PAs)

 

1.076 Goldschmidt

1.061 N Cruz

1.011 Trout

.984 Ryan Braun (159 wRC+)

.980 Chris Young (164 wRC+)

 

Only 3-4 players in all of MLB were better than Young over the prior two years.

 

Young has an .875 OPS vs LHPs from 2014-2016. That places him 24th in MLB and ahead of everyone on the Sox, except HRam.

 

He's at .872 from 2015-2017, which places him 23rd, which is better than HRam and Bogey (the next best Sox players).

 

Young had had a rough couple weeks, but it's too early to give up on a guy who has been a proven lefty killer.

 

 

[mvp 78]

Also, if we are going to make decisions based on just 2017 numbers, and that's what you are doing here, then Young should start vs every RHP'er.

 

 

I was just posting some interesting stats and wasn't advocating for anything.

[moonslav59]

We all get a little knee-jerky at times. You were advocating banishing Moreland to the bench not long ago.

 

Yes, I fely he needed a 10 day DL stint while recovering from the toe injury. He got hot shortly after I suggested that.

 

Like I said, I have never claimed to know more than JF and DD. I have been wrong enough to prove that.

 

[moonslav59]

I believe moon is saying it doesn't matter if, for example, Mookie is hitting 3rd or 9th as far as how he performs. But it matters as far as optimizing the lineup.

 

I wish I could say it like that without a 1000 page dissertation.

[cp176]

I can't argue that Yaz was not the hitter he had been at the end of his career.

 

But I have absolutely no confidence in some yo-yo somehow deducing that he was a poor defender.

 

That is complete foolishness and anyone here that watched him and has an once of integrity would agree.

 

f*** dWAR and especially assigning value to a player who stopped playing decades ago.

 

It is an arguement that you probably could never win because the stats say so. What was the other good line - guys like us don't let the facts get in our way. We have our memories. I'll take Yaz and his bad stats.

[oldtimer]

Young has been one of the best hitters vs LHPs in MLB for 2-3 years before this year. That's solid proof he can and has done it for extended times. Brentz has a shorter time frame of success vs LHPs in the minor leagues.

 

I'd like to see Brentz called up in September and given a chance to shine, but I'm not giving up on Young yet.

 

Also, if we are going to make decisions based on just 2017 numbers, and that's what you are doing here, then Young should start vs every RHP'er.

 

2017 OPS vs RHPs:

.994 Nunez

.831 Beni

.812 Young

.807 Devers

.800 Moreland

.768 HRam

.760 Betts

.756 Pedey

.747 Bogey

.736 Vaz

.729 JBJ

 

If we went totally by lefty-righty splits in 2017, Beni would be benched vs LHPs (.656).

 

Plus, how well would any hitter do when they are asked to play as sporadically as Young?

 

Brentz plays everyday and is allowed to find and stay in a groove. Young never gets that chance.

 

He's done fine as our 4th OF'er and 2nd DH, and quite frankly, I'm baffled why his name keeps coming up so often.

 

 

 

My tendency is to advocate going with the hot bats at the current time. Just because Bogey has roughly a 750 ops for the year doesn't mean he is doing that in the second half split. In fact, his performance every year of his career but one had a worse performance in the second half. This year his injury hampered him but it appears to be more than that, so why bat him 5th in the lineup tonight following another underperforming hitter in Betts. Believe me when I say I would love for both of them to turn it around but evidence indicates they are off right now. Both taking early strikes and swinging at balls out of the zone. If they both act as rally killers tonight it won't help us. I don't understand JFs thinking.

 

I prefer to group hitters who at least make solid contact so they can get more runs across the plate. Now Young is being used to take Moreland out of the second game in a row when he has been one of our hottest hitters. Young has been pathetic of late and consistently so. Quoting when he has done in the past doesn't mean much when you have to win a game tonight.

 

Heres hoping that this lineup idea will work but I am hiighly skeptical and also believe lineups do matter.

[moonslav59]

Now Young is being used to take Moreland out of the second game in a row when he has been one of our hottest hitters. Young has been pathetic of late and consistently so. Quoting when he has done in the past doesn't mean much when you have to win a game tonight.

 

As we saw tonight, starting Young over Moreland does not mean Moreland won't play.

 

Bat alive tonight!

[moonslav59]

For those obsessed with how well players do in certain batting slots or situations based on tiny sample sizes, and you know who you are , here's a number to ponder...

 

OPS 1.457 before tonight

 

Moreland's OPS as a sub. Add 2 for 2 from tonight's game, and we're looking at Moreland being 8 for 16 with 3 HRs and 10 RBI.

 

Maybe starting Young is not such a bad thing despite his poor numbers (although Young did get on base once in 2 PAs tonight).

[oldtimer]

For those obsessed with how well players do in certain batting slots or situations based on tiny sample sizes, and you know who you are , here's a number to ponder...

 

OPS 1.457 before tonight

 

Moreland's OPS as a sub. Add 2 for 2 from tonight's game, and we're looking at Moreland being 8 for 16 with 3 HRs and 10 RBI.

 

Maybe starting Young is not such a bad thing despite his poor numbers (although Young did get on base once in 2 PAs tonight).

 

Moreland got a hit against a lefty tonight as well as a home run earlier. The night before, JF stuck with Young in a close game. I was afraid he might do that again tonight. Young isn't getting much done. Go with the hot bats.

[oldtimer]

Now Young is being used to take Moreland out of the second game in a row when he has been one of our hottest hitters. Young has been pathetic of late and consistently so. Quoting when he has done in the past doesn't mean much when you have to win a game tonight.

 

As we saw tonight, starting Young over Moreland does not mean Moreland won't play.

 

Bat alive tonight!

 

Last night JF stuck with Young in a close game with Moreland sitting. I was afraid JF would do the same tonight. I say go with the hot bat.

[S5Dewey]

Moreland got a hit against a lefty tonight as well as a home run earlier. The night before, JF stuck with Young in a close game. I was afraid he might do that again tonight. Young isn't getting much done. Go with the hot bats.

 

I SO like this philosophy. It may not be the right thing to do statistically but I'd rather take the chance that a hot hand will remain hot than believe that a cold hand will suddenly turn hot.

[Maxbialystock]

For those obsessed with how well players do in certain batting slots or situations based on tiny sample sizes, and you know who you are , here's a number to ponder...

 

OPS 1.457 before tonight

 

Moreland's OPS as a sub. Add 2 for 2 from tonight's game, and we're looking at Moreland being 8 for 16 with 3 HRs and 10 RBI.

 

Maybe starting Young is not such a bad thing despite his poor numbers (although Young did get on base once in 2 PAs tonight).

 

I choose to call it my hobby horse. Moreland as PH was discussed on game thread. Tiny sample sizes are good for weight control, cholesterol, lots of stuff. Over consumption of data can be fattening, even addictive. A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds.

[Bellhorn04]

I choose to call it my hobby horse. Moreland as PH was discussed on game thread. Tiny sample sizes are good for weight control, cholesterol, lots of stuff. Over consumption of data can be fattening, even addictive. A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds.

 

And a foolish inconsistency is the demon of flip-floppers.

 

There, I think we have it covered.

[moonslav59]

I choose to call it my hobby horse. Moreland as PH was discussed on game thread. Tiny sample sizes are good for weight control, cholesterol, lots of stuff. Over consumption of data can be fattening, even addictive. A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds.

 

I'm one of the strongest adversaries to small sample sizes on this board. To me, 400-650 PAs is small.

 

I posted the PH and sub numbers of Moreland as a rebuttal to those using small sample sizes to suggest Young be benched or DHA'd and the hot hand Moreland played even against LHPs and/or moved up in the line-up.

 

When you look at Young's seasonal numbers- a small sample size scattered over a full season, he looks bad, Moreland has looked better, but some of his numbers are padded by his numbers coming in to replace Young when a RHP is brought in. To those where small sample situational sizes matter, this should count for something. It hardly means squat to me, since the sample sizes are tiny, but the idea all along was to platoon Moreland and Young and PH the other when the situation arose.

 

All-in-all, the platoon has done well this year. Young has struggled vs LHPs, but has done much better vs RHPs than expected. That frustrates many of us, because we really need him to kill lefties as he has for years and years (3rd to 4th best in all of MLB from 2014-2016).

 

As a sub

 

PAs Player OPS

22 Moreland 1.699 (.754 as starter)

20 Young .763 (.715 as starter)

16 Rutledge .795

12 Marrero .556

10 Beni .522

10 Holt .311

 

As PH'er

 

18 Young .857

10 Moreland 1.457

7 Beni .286

 

It's hard to expect any hitter to do well with their PAs scattered all over the place and often playing just a few innings in the games you get to play in. Young has not done great in that role so far this year, but his long history of greatness vs LHPs, to me, justifies sticking with the plan.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I guess there should be some credit to Farrell for patiently sticking to the plan there.

[moonslav59]

I guess there should be some credit to Farrell for patiently sticking to the plan there.

 

The injuries to HRam forcing him to DH only for a while forced Moreland (and Travis) to play 1B more than "the plan" called for.

 

Games started vs LHPs (31 as a team)

31 Young (but not always instead of Moreland)

12 Travis

7 Moreland

18 Beni (13 games he did not start v L)

 

102 games vs RH'd starter

99 Moreland

99 Beni

26 Young (not supposed to start this many, but his .822 OPS vs RHPs is better than Moreland's .777!)

0 Travis

 

JF has stuck to "the plan" for the most part, but the splits have not turned out as expected:

 

In games when a RH'er started:

.822 Young

.777 Moreland

 

In games when a LH'er started:

.933 Moreland (mostly as a sub)

.604 Young

 

Go figure!

 

[Kimmi]

Shows you how much managers value pitcher-catcher intangibles more than some think it's worth.

 

 

The pitcher-catcher relationship is one of the intangibles that I feel most strongly, if not the strongest, about.

 

I have said many times that what we get from our catchers offensively is gravy.

 

#BringBackVaritek

[Kimmi]

I think the age of the player has a lot to do with it.

I wouldn't want to give a 10 yr deaL to a player who's 26-30 yrs old.

23 or 24 is probably a safer bet.

 

As I've said before, if we are going to hand out a 10 year contract to anyone, Mookie is the player I'd do it for. And, it would be much more preferable to do it now than to wait until he reaches free agency.

[Kimmi]

You don't think he'd listen on a healthy 6 year offer - one that would make him wealthy for life AND give him a shot at another big payday while still in his prime?

 

I really hope that the two sides can work out a 6-7 year deal. That would be ideal for both sides, IMO.

[Kimmi]

I believe moon is saying it doesn't matter if, for example, Mookie is hitting 3rd or 9th as far as how he performs. But it matters as far as optimizing the lineup.

 

Would that mean that the idea of line up protection is mostly a myth?

[Kimmi]

That is what Kimmi would call an enigma.

 

Ha. Our entire offense this season has been rather enigmatic, if you ask me.

[Kimmi]

Yes, I fely he needed a 10 day DL stint while recovering from the toe injury. He got hot shortly after I suggested that.

 

Like I said, I have never claimed to know more than JF and DD. I have been wrong enough to prove that.

 

One thing that most managers are good about that most fans are not good about is having patience. Managers cannot react to every small sample slump or hot streak.