Sox hitting??

[Bellhorn04]

Honestly last nights game showed me that it won't take much for us to be true contenders. We really just need one or 2 strong hitters and we will be fine. Last night was only the second time in the last 12 days that we have had more than 3 runs

 

Not to be a downer, but we would have only scored 3 runs again last night if it wasn't for the extra innings...

[TylerD]

Not to be a downer, but we would have only scored 3 runs again last night if it wasn't for the extra innings...

 

Lol fair point, was just thinking that myself actually.

[Emp9]

Weird how there's no DFA or platoon HRam posts today.

 

HR made a nice stretch, (in what the 14th inning was it?) to complete a double play and then hit a walk off HR. I personally think he's been a bit hurt all season and maybe just starting to feel good enough to play 1B if needed. If so, having him DH until he's ready w/ Moreland having a nice first half has worked out very well then for us. Almost perfect. He's on pace for his typical career norm season and certainly hasn't been the problem. I think it's his salary that leaves some fans expecting a lot more.

[fxkatt]

The Sox lack of hitting has less to do with getting it, than with the lack of it in this line-up. Why Why is no one hitting above expectations. Pedroia may be slightly above, but every other hitter on the Sox has either below or at expectations. The 3 Bs is each hitting around 272.

 

This to me is the real problem--not one hitter performing above expectations. The Blue Jays have the same problem, but at least they can say it's the fatigue of a old veteran-packed lineup

[moonslav59]

HR made a nice stretch, (in what the 14th inning was it?) to complete a double play and then hit a walk off HR. I personally think he's been a bit hurt all season and maybe just starting to feel good enough to play 1B if needed. If so, having him DH until he's ready w/ Moreland having a nice first half has worked out very well then for us. Almost perfect. He's on pace for his typical career norm season and certainly hasn't been the problem. I think it's his salary that leaves some fans expecting a lot more.

 

Well said. I hope for more, too.

 

I guess I just get to wondering why some posters pick some of our so-so or strength areas as being in need of an upgrade.

 

I've always been one to look at the weakest 2-3 links (weakest not necessarily weak) to try and upgrade for a push to a ring.

 

We have a weird situation. Our weakest links all have some context involved:

 

3B: Clearly our weakness, but also an area with a lot of hope for the near and extended future with Devers. Trading for a rental makes sense, but overpaying for 2 months of a player makes little sense.

 

1B: Moreland is a big reason we are in 1st place right now. He carried the team in many a game. He's hurt now and still batting 4th vs RHPs despite a 5+ week slump. We have HRam and Travis who can play 1B, but HRam has been playing hurt and Travis might not be what we hoped he'd be.

 

C: I think Vaz and Leon are very good defenders, and catching is a key defensive position. Together they have hit well until recently, but a mid to high .600s is good enough for me with their defense. I'm not a Lucroy fan, and any big bat catcher will be very very costly.

 

So, if we truly need a big bat, and I'm still not sure we do, then 1B seems to be the best position, and sometimes the cheapest as well at the deadline.

 

[sk7326]

I think a Wilmer Flores makes sense at the deadline among names being sniffed around - who can play 3B or 1B ... and maybe having that flexibility is what we need here. This allows management to not be backed into a Devers promotion ... but does not block him either.

 

He is not super exciting - but neither is anybody else.

[moonslav59]

The Sox lack of hitting has less to do with getting it, than with the lack of it in this line-up. Why Why is no one hitting above expectations. Pedroia may be slightly above, but every other hitter on the Sox has either below or at expectations. The 3 Bs is each hitting around 272.

 

This to me is the real problem--not one hitter performing above expectations. The Blue Jays have the same problem, but at least they can say it's the fatigue of a old veteran-packed lineup

 

Reminds me of 2012 and 2014.

 

I'd say only Pedey, JBJ and Beni are close to being at expected levels of production among are hitters.

[moonslav59]

If we decide 1B is the best position to add a big bat at the deadline, here's a list of top wRC+ 1Bmen on teams that are out of it or near out of it:

 

1. Votto 159

5. Smoak 145

7. Alonso 145

9. J Bour 134

11. Mancini 131

12. Hosmer 127

13. J Abreu 124

15. B Belt 118

18. Miggy 111

21. Wil Myers 109

22. Josh Bell 107

(24. Moreland 98)

 

3B

8. Gyorko 122

11. Gallo 110

12. Suarez 109

13. Harrison 108

14. Castellanos 108

15. Y Escobar 108

16. R Healy 106

 

[Maxbialystock]

Well said. I hope for more, too.

 

I guess I just get to wondering why some posters pick some of our so-so or strength areas as being in need of an upgrade.

 

I've always been one to look at the weakest 2-3 links (weakest not necessarily weak) to try and upgrade for a push to a ring.

 

We have a weird situation. Our weakest links all have some context involved:

 

3B: Clearly our weakness, but also an area with a lot of hope for the near and extended future with Devers. Trading for a rental makes sense, but overpaying for 2 months of a player makes little sense.

 

1B: Moreland is a big reason we are in 1st place right now. He carried the team in many a game. He's hurt now and still batting 4th vs RHPs despite a 5+ week slump. We have HRam and Travis who can play 1B, but HRam has been playing hurt and Travis might not be what we hoped he'd be.

 

C: I think Vaz and Leon are very good defenders, and catching is a key defensive position. Together they have hit well until recently, but a mid to high .600s is good enough for me with their defense. I'm not a Lucroy fan, and any big bat catcher will be very very costly.

 

So, if we truly need a big bat, and I'm still not sure we do, then 1B seems to be the best position, and sometimes the cheapest as well at the deadline.

 

 

You and Kimmi are turning into pollyannas, which is probably a good thing given the general cynicism, especially mine, on this board.

 

But overall I have felt for sometime that I don't want a trade because I too see some good in just about every position. The Marrero/Lin fix at 3b worked amazingly well because it helped the hitting a little and the defense a lot. Good for you for remembering what Moreland did early on. Plus I need to remind myself that Moreland and Ramirez are playing hurt right now.

 

I think the Yankees gave up too much for Frazier.

[Emp9]

Well said. I hope for more, too.

 

I guess I just get to wondering why some posters pick some of our so-so or strength areas as being in need of an upgrade.

 

I've always been one to look at the weakest 2-3 links (weakest not necessarily weak) to try and upgrade for a push to a ring.

 

We have a weird situation. Our weakest links all have some context involved:

 

3B: Clearly our weakness, but also an area with a lot of hope for the near and extended future with Devers. Trading for a rental makes sense, but overpaying for 2 months of a player makes little sense.

 

1B: Moreland is a big reason we are in 1st place right now. He carried the team in many a game. He's hurt now and still batting 4th vs RHPs despite a 5+ week slump. We have HRam and Travis who can play 1B, but HRam has been playing hurt and Travis might not be what we hoped he'd be.

 

C: I think Vaz and Leon are very good defenders, and catching is a key defensive position. Together they have hit well until recently, but a mid to high .600s is good enough for me with their defense. I'm not a Lucroy fan, and any big bat catcher will be very very costly.

 

So, if we truly need a big bat, and I'm still not sure we do, then 1B seems to be the best position, and sometimes the cheapest as well at the deadline.

 

 

Lucroy having a very disappointing season,don't think he'd be an upgrade. Not this year anyway, and he's sat a lot so it's not like he's burnt-out. In fact I just dropped him from my Fantasy league, so nobody can claim I'm not patient. An upgrade at 1B and leave HanRam at DH, and status quo at 3B or until they promote Devers at least ... could be the plan.

 

Moon did you like that Yank/ChiSox trade? Frazier was like 4th or 5th on my list of 3Bmen to trade for. He may have been even lower on yours now that I think about it.

[harmony]

I think a Wilmer Flores makes sense at the deadline among names being sniffed around - who can play 3B or 1B ... and maybe having that flexibility is what we need here. This allows management to not be backed into a Devers promotion ... but does not block him either.

 

He is not super exciting - but neither is anybody else.

For what it's worth, ZiPS, Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project Wilmer Flores with rest-of-season WAR of 0.1 in 57 games, 0.8 in 64 games and 0.7 in 67 games:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5827&position=3B/SS

 

Flores has a UZR/150 of a negative 6.2 in 893 career innings at third base, including a negative 9.4 in 299 innings this year.

 

The nearly 26-year-old Flores remains under team control for two more seasons working off his 2017 arbitration salary of $2.2 million.

Edited July 19, 2017 by harmony

[Emp9]

The Sox also were looking into JD Martinez, which tellsme that if HanRam can indeed play 1B on the regular now, we could be sniffing around for a DH in whatever capacity. Dh-1B, DH-OF, DH-3B, DH-DH... just a thought

[moonslav59]

You and Kimmi are turning into pollyannas, which is probably a good thing given the general cynicism, especially mine, on this board.

 

But overall I have felt for sometime that I don't want a trade because I too see some good in just about every position. The Marrero/Lin fix at 3b worked amazingly well because it helped the hitting a little and the defense a lot. Good for you for remembering what Moreland did early on. Plus I need to remind myself that Moreland and Ramirez are playing hurt right now.

 

I think the Yankees gave up too much for Frazier.

 

I get down sometimes, too, Max. I just always tell myself, it's a long season.

 

Our pitching and defense has been very good to great. That always gives us strong chance to win on a game by game or short series basis.

 

No doubt, our bats have been disappointing. I knew losing Papi would hurt, but I still thought we'd be a top 3 to 5 offense, in terms of runs scored.

 

I'm not a big proponent of line-up protection, so I do not think losing Papi is a major reason just about every batter is below expectations.

 

I still have hope for our offense, but I'm not as optimistic as I was before the season started. I feel some minor adjustments might help, but I'm not against the idea of trying to upgrade our offense (without a major impact to our future). Here are a few possible ideas:

 

A) Put Moreland on the DL. Maybe a long rest will help, even if the toe does not heal totally. Call up Devers or Travis. (I trust Sox management to know when Devers is ML ready.)

 

Tweak the batting order. I'd like to see Betts up 3rd or 4th, but I'm okay with the philosophy of giving him more PAs from the lead-off slot. I think he will heat up soon. So, here's my line-ups with Moreland on the DL:

vs RHPs

1. Betts

2. Pedey

3. Beni

4. HRam

5. JBJ

6. Bogey (until he breaks his slump)

7. Travis

8. Holt

9. Leon

 

vs LHP

1. Betts

2. Bogey

3. Pedey

4. HRam

5. Young

6. JBJ

7. Beni

8. Vaz

9. Holt/Marrero

 

C) Look to trade for a rental 3B or 1Bman at a low cost. I don't like the idea of trading for a DH and planning on HRam to play 1B FT. HRam has been playing hurt, and we need his bat.

 

D) Keep the pressure off our offense by fortifying our pen at the deadline.

 

 

[moonslav59]

The Sox also were looking into JD Martinez, which tellsme that if HanRam can indeed play 1B on the regular now, we could be sniffing around for a DH in whatever capacity. Dh-1B, DH-OF, DH-3B, DH-DH... just a thought

 

Playing HRam FT at 1B risks losing one of our power bats due to injury.

 

I think we need to look at 1B, unless Sox management has no plans to give Devers a shot this year, then I'd try 3B first.

[fxkatt]

My worry is that if we don't SOMEHOW get the hitting going, our pitching which, in many ways, has been above expectations (esp when factoring in injuries) will begin to fatigue and fold. It needs more support from the offense, because its gotta be over-extended in terms of effort. And when does disappointment begin to take its toll?

 

P.S. Seems like we have the old Mets problem which is weird for a Sox team

Edited July 19, 2017 by fxkatt

[mvp 78]

If we decide 1B is the best position to add a big bat at the deadline, here's a list of top wRC+ 1Bmen on teams that are out of it or near out of it:

 

1. Votto 159 NOT A CHANCE

5. Smoak 145 JAYS STILL THINK THEY ARE IN IT AND AREN'T DEALING

7. Alonso 145 MAYBE, BUT DOESN'T HAVE A LONG TRACK RECORD, SHOULDN'T BE EXPENSIVE TO GET

9. J Bour 134 PROBABLY EXPENSIVE AS HE HAS YEARS OF CONTROL LEFT AND IS REALLY A PLATOON GUY

11. Mancini 131 O'S AREN'T TRADING HIM

12. Hosmer 127 ROYALS STILL THINK THEY ARE IN IT

13. J Abreu 124 WOULD TAKE A BRINKS TRUCK TO GET DUE TO REMAINING TEAM CONTROL, ONLY CHISOX STAR LEFT

15. B Belt 118 BARELY AN UPGRADE AT THE PLATE, POOR DEFENDER

18. Miggy 111 HE'S 34, HAVING HIS WORST YEAR AND HAS TOO MANY $$$'S LEFT ON HIS CONTRACT

21. Wil Myers 109 LONG TERM DEAL, CHEAP MONEY FOR NEXT FEW YEARS, HE'S GOING NOWHERE FOR NOW

22. Josh Bell 107 WAY TOO YOUNG TO BE TRADED, HE'D BE A GREAT GET BUT PIRATES WOULD NEVER MOVE HIM

(24. Moreland 98)

 

Read above.

[harmony]

If we decide 1B is the best position to add a big bat at the deadline, here's a list of top wRC+ 1Bmen on teams that are out of it or near out of it:

 

1. Votto 159

5. Smoak 145

7. Alonso 145

9. J Bour 134

11. Mancini 131

12. Hosmer 127

13. J Abreu 124

15. B Belt 118

18. Miggy 111

21. Wil Myers 109

22. Josh Bell 107

(24. Moreland 98)

13. Harrison 108

The Seattle Mariners, who are almost "near out of it," have first baseman Danny Valencia, who has posted a wRC+ of 109 in his final year of team control. The 32-year-old Valencia has a .298/.353/.475/.829 line in 266 plate appearances since April.

Edited July 19, 2017 by harmony

[mvp 78]

The Seattle Mariners, who are almost "near out of it," have first baseman Danny Valencia, who has posted a wRC+ of 109 in his final year of team control. The 32-year-old Valencia has a .298/.353/.475/.829 line in 266 plate appearances since April.

 

His defensive stats have been horrible this year. Did he forget to bring his glove to Seattle?

[harmony]

His defensive stats have been horrible this year. Did he forget to bring his glove to Seattle?

With four Defensive Runs Saved, Danny Valencia is tied with Mitch Moreland and Matt Carpenter for sixth place among qualified first basemen this year:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d

 

However, at a -0.1 Valencia has the only negative UZR/150 among the top eight first basemen in DRS.

[Kimmi]

You and Kimmi are turning into pollyannas, which is probably a good thing given the general cynicism, especially mine, on this board.

 

But overall I have felt for sometime that I don't want a trade because I too see some good in just about every position. The Marrero/Lin fix at 3b worked amazingly well because it helped the hitting a little and the defense a lot. Good for you for remembering what Moreland did early on. Plus I need to remind myself that Moreland and Ramirez are playing hurt right now.

 

I think the Yankees gave up too much for Frazier.

 

Moon and I are pollyannas, except for when it comes to the cliff, in which case we are pessimists.

 

It's been frustrating. Very frustrating. But despite all the frustration, the injuries, and the underperformances, we are in first place by 2 games. Sure, we could use another bat. But it's not worth acting rashly to get one.

 

I think the package that the Yankees gave up for Frazier plus the 2 relievers was fair. I don't think the Sox should have tried to outbid the Yankees.

[d-money]

Good pitching can always stop good hitting. Any pitching can stop our hitting. It will be a quick exit from the playoffs if we make it that far unless our pitchers hurl shutouts.

 

Anything less than a ALCS and Farrell likely will be gone. This team has the pitching to even go to the World Series. It's the hitting that concerns me.

[Kimmi]

Anything less than a ALCS and Farrell likely will be gone. This team has the pitching to even go to the World Series. It's the hitting that concerns me.

 

We could have the best pitching and the best hitting in baseball, and still get eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. The first goal is to get there, and then it becomes a whole different ball game.

[mvp 78]

Anything less than a ALCS and Farrell likely will be gone. This team has the pitching to even go to the World Series. It's the hitting that concerns me.

 

If they win the division, Farrell will be back next year. I'd suspect there may be other coaching changes though.

[mvp 78]

@TimBritton

 

Best historical analogue I can find for Red Sox's 58 innings over four days? The 1977 Expos with 55 over three in late July of that season.

[sk7326]

Josh Harrison is an intriguing choice also - he won't help with power but consistency and a decent bat with some speed and again, allows the Red Sox freedom to promote or not promote Devers. He can play 3B and probably 1B.

[a700hitter]

Moon and I are pollyannas, except for when it comes to the cliff, in which case we are pessimists.

 

It's been frustrating. Very frustrating. But despite all the frustration, the injuries, and the underperformances, we are in first place by 2 games. Sure, we could use another bat. But it's not worth acting rashly to get one.

 

I think the package that the Yankees gave up for Frazier plus the 2 relievers was fair. I don't think the Sox should have tried to outbid the Yankees.

So you are a Pollyanna except when it comes to improving the current team? Quite a dilemma.

[Maxbialystock]

So you are a Pollyanna except when it comes to improving the current team? Quite a dilemma.

 

For the record, Pollyanna was the ultimate optimist who always had something positive to say to everyone and about everyone. Thus, if you are a true pollyanna, then you believe nothing on this team needs fixing. Kimmi is not quite that optimistic, but optimistic enough to think the FO should be cautious about what they give up to "improve" this team.

 

In 2013 the Sox did make a late trade--3 way to get Peavy and give up a very good defensive SS named Iglesias. I hated that trade because I loved watching Iglesias at SS, but I had to admit the Sox already had two viable SS's in Drew and Bogaerts. Since then, it is worth noting, Bogaerts's WAR has been higher than Iglesias's in very single season including this one.

 

Peavy wasn't great in 2013, but he did have 6 quality starts in 10 starts and an ERA of 4.04. Less good in the post season, but still a good acquisition I think.

 

Oh, and the Sox played the Tigers in the ALCS and beat them 4-2.

 

I think our hitting sucks, but for that very reason I don't see how one bat is going to fix everything. And if it is just one bat, that bat just might be Devers.

[moonslav59]

The Seattle Mariners, who are almost "near out of it," have first baseman Danny Valencia, who has posted a wRC+ of 109 in his final year of team control. The 32-year-old Valencia has a .298/.353/.475/.829 line in 266 plate appearances since April.

 

I left him out on purpose.

 

I don't want to read about anyone wanting us to trade for him.

[harmony]

I left him out on purpose.

 

I don't want to read about anyone wanting us to trade for him.

I thought you had written somewhat fondly of Danny Valencia in the past.

 

As I write the Mariners are 1.5 games back in the race for the second Wild Card slot with a 10-game homestand against the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets coming up. The August schedule, however, is brutal with 20 road games and only seven home games.

Edited July 20, 2017 by harmony

[moonslav59]

I thought you had written somewhat fondly of Danny Valencia in the past.

 

As I write the Mariners are 1.5 games back in the race for the second Wild Card slot with a 10-game home series against the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets coming up. The August schedule, however, is brutal with 20 road games and only seven home games.

 

I did mention him as an option last summer, but then I found out about hoe bad he was on defense.

 

He might be better than Moreland over the second half, but I'd rather not get him.