Sox hitting??

[mvp 78]

Mookie is on pace for another 9+ WAR season. He absolutely will get 30+ million and I am 100% fine giving it to him.

 

Yup.

[OH FOY]

Like Lou Merloni first thing he said on Sunday night on the Baseball Show, was the situational hitting on this team stinks. They think they have sluggers, and they don't.

 

http://web.usabaseball.com/article.jsp?ymd=20160526&content_id=180405320&vkey=news_usab

[Hugh2]

The Sox hitting overall doesn't seem to be an issue. They are 5th in the A.L. in runs. 3rd in OBP, and 2nd in AVG.

 

The problem with their hitting is it isn't consistent and I think that is partially due to the power outage. How many of these 1-0, 3-1 or 2-1 losses could have been flipped if we had a 2 run or 3 run home run ever so often?

 

I think they seem to score runs in batches too, they need more consistency, the talent is there but the offense seems to go dormant at times. If I recall correctly this was precisely their problem last year in the playofffs.

 

When the team is hitting they can beat anyone. If the offense was on a hot streak, I think we could have won the WS last year. The pitching is even better this year....I think we can't underestimate how much better this team could be overall with some upgrades to the offense.

[mvp 78]

Like Lou Merloni first thing he said on Sunday night on the Baseball Show, was the situational hitting on this team stinks. They think they have sluggers, and they don't.

 

http://web.usabaseball.com/article.jsp?ymd=20160526&content_id=180405320&vkey=news_usab

 

Situational hitting relies on randomness. It's why the O's were once great, but now suck again. It's just bad luck for the Sox that they haven't strung hits together.

 

Sometimes, they run into outs like last night, which is a different animal altogether.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox hitting overall doesn't seem to be an issue. They are 5th in the A.L. in runs. 3rd in OBP, and 2nd in AVG.

 

Oh, I think it's an issue. They've played a few more games than other teams on average. They're 7th in the A.L. in runs per game, .01 ahead of the Rays, who play in a pitcher's park.

 

The fact is our offense is perfectly mediocre, middle of the pack.

Edited July 18, 2017 by Bellhorn04

[Station 13]

The Sox's 94 wRC+ (runs created) is 17th in baseball. That is extremely bad for this environment/parks and league in which they are in. In 2016 they were #1 with a wRC+ 113.

[Hugh2]

Oh, I think it's an issue. They've played a few more games than other teams on average. They're 7th in the A.L. in runs per game, .01 ahead of the Rays, who play in a pitcher's park.

 

The fact is our offense is perfectly mediocre, middle of the pack.

 

I agree, and like I said I think it's their consistency that is more of an issue. Scoring 10 runs one game then losing 1-0, and 3-1 the next two is hurting this team.

 

Regardless of how you want to look at it I think we can both agree that an offensive upgrade can really help this team.

[moonslav59]

The Sox's 94 wRC+ (runs created) is 17th in baseball. That is extremely bad for this environment/parks and league in which they are in. In 2016 they were #1 with a wRC+ 113.

 

I believe wRC+ adjusts to the park and maybe opponent strength.

[Emp9]

The Sox hitting overall doesn't seem to be an issue. They are 5th in the A.L. in runs. 3rd in OBP, and 2nd in AVG.

 

The problem with their hitting is it isn't consistent and I think that is partially due to the power outage. How many of these 1-0, 3-1 or 2-1 losses could have been flipped if we had a 2 run or 3 run home run ever so often?

 

I think they seem to score runs in batches too, they need more consistency, the talent is there but the offense seems to go dormant at times. If I recall correctly this was precisely their problem last year in the playofffs.

 

When the team is hitting they can beat anyone. If the offense was on a hot streak, I think we could have won the WS last year. The pitching is even better this year....I think we can't underestimate how much better this team could be overall with some upgrades to the offense.

 

Not sure a HR hitter would help us more than a .280-.300 avg hitter making less outs in the lineup on a consistent basis would. We get on base fine, but we seem to be missing that "one more hit' to get some runs home. Considering that another base hit strung together could possible drive in two runs (w/ risp), there's more than one way to skin a cat....

 

(not that i skin cats btw:o)

[moonslav59]

Running into outs hasn't helped either.

[Emp9]

Running into outs hasn't helped either.

 

right... but we wouldn't have to be so aggressive on the base paths if we had more trust in the lineup. I'm not knocking HRs. I'd like more of them too. But pwer hitters are usually pretty expensive especially this time of year. Another high average bat could be just as helpful or maybe even more helpful.

[mvp 78]

right... but we wouldn't have to be so aggressive on the base paths if we had more trust in the lineup. I'm not knocking HRs. I'd like more of them too. But pwer hitters are usually pretty expensive especially this time of year. Another high average bat could be just as helpful or maybe even more helpful.

 

I don't think it's about trust. They ran into outs last year too. I think they either want to be overly aggressive, or the players just do whatever they want without repercussions.

[moonslav59]

I don't think it's about trust. They ran into outs last year too. I think they either want to be overly aggressive, or the players just do whatever they want without repercussions.

 

Big out we ran into yesterday.

 

We've actually hit pretty well in Late & Close situations this year until recently, but timely hits early in games seems to have been our weakness all year long. Hopefully, things will even out over the rest of the year.

 

2017 Team OPS: .746

Late & Close .695 (-.041)

High Leverage .714 (-.032)

RISP .769 (+.043)

RISP/2 outs .763 (+.017)

Men on .744 (-.002)

 

2018 Team OPS: .814

Late & Close .730 (-.084)

High Leverage .774 (-.040)

RISP .847 (+.033)

RISP/2 outs .730 (-.084)

Men On .847 (+.033)

 

[Kimmi]

What about things like alternating handedness? Are there any theories that state that it doesn't really matter?

 

Batting order, on the whole, just doesn't make that big of a difference. Alternating handedness to avoid a LOOGY being able to get more than one lefty out is likely more beneficial than all the other tweaks people are talking about.

[Emp9]

I don't think it's about trust. They ran into outs last year too. I think they either want to be overly aggressive, or the players just do whatever they want without repercussions.

 

2016 SB vs CS 78 SB%: 83 SB to 24 CS

2017 SB vs CS 73 SB%: 57 SB to 21 CS

 

I think they're pressing a bit on the base paths to try and make something happen (due to lack of timely hits). It's not major, but it definitely isn't as good as last season. That's 24 CS on the whole '16 season compared to 21 CS already this season. I believe they're forcing things ever so slightly and it's not working out. What I'm having trouble looking up are 2016 first half SB attempts compared to this season, or in other words, are we necessarily running more this season than last up to this exact point? Which could slightly disprove my point in a way, but maybe not. 29 more SB attempts needed to match last season total w/ 68 games left ( i want to say our SB attempts are up this season slightly). I will say we lead MLB in SB Opportunities (1380). 2016 placed 2nd in MLB (2420).

[mvp 78]

Batting order, on the whole, just doesn't make that big of a difference. Alternating handedness to avoid a LOOGY being able to get more than one lefty out is likely more beneficial than all the other tweaks people are talking about.

 

I figured as much.

 

To me, as long as your best hitters are towards the top of the lineup, we shouldn't be picking nits.

[mvp 78]

2016 SB vs CS 78 SB%: 83 SB to 24 CS

2017 SB vs CS 73 SB%: 57 SB to 21 CS

 

I think they're pressing a bit on the base paths to try and make something happen (due to lack of timely hits). It's not major, but it definitely isn't as good as last season. That's 24 CS on the whole '16 season compared to 21 CS already this season. I believe they're forcing things ever so slightly and it's not working out. What I'm having trouble looking up are 2016 first half SB attempts compared to this season, or in other words, are we necessarily running more this season than last up to this exact point? Which could slightly disprove my point in a way, but maybe not. 29 more SB attempts needed to match last season total w/ 68 games left ( i want to say our SB attempts are up this season slightly). I will say we lead MLB in SB Opportunities (1380). 2016 placed 2nd in MLB (2420).

 

I don't think the concern is about stealing bases. I think it has more to do with how they run the bases when the ball is in play.

[mvp 78]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2017-baserunning-batting.shtml

 

Boston leads MLB in OOB (Outs On Base, i.e. outs while making a baserunning play) with 47. The next two are 41 and 40. League Average is 29. Arizona has the best rate and has only run into 17 outs (thanks Lovullo).

[Kimmi]

OK. I'll bite. Define "current credible projections."

 

For one, Mitchell Lichtman's projection system. I honestly don't know what other projection systems he deems credible.

[mvp 78]

They are on pace to have the worst OOB since before 2010.

 

Ouch.

[Kimmi]

I am not certain of what you mean by credible projects if they are not based on in season performance to date, nor based on performance during the last 2 to 4 weeks.

Who are the projections credible to? A for instance Moreland had a good first half but has been slumping and his performance in the second half last year was a prolonged slump. How would a credible projection be developed for him?

 

To sum it up, here's an example that Lichtman uses:

 

So, for example, if a manager sees that a hitter has a .280 wOBA for the first 4 months of the season, despite a .330 projection, and bats him 8th, he would be making a mistake, since we expect him to bat like a .330 hitter and not a .280 hitter, and in fact he does, according to an analysis of historical player seasons.

 

In short, projections trump in season performance at any point in the season.

[Bellhorn04]

Big out we ran into yesterday.

 

Possibly, but it was ice cold Bogey coming up with 2 outs.

[Emp9]

I don't think the concern is about stealing bases. I think it has more to do with how they run the bases when the ball is in play.

 

That as well, but it's harder to look up. We'd both have to go by memory. But even so, you take the 5% decrease in SB% from a year earlier and you add in the miscellaneous poor base-running that wasn't necessarily counting as SB attempts and I think you'd find us forcing things a bit.

[Kimmi]

Throwing money at players doesn't guarantee winning. Look at the terrible results with Sandoval, Castillo, Craig and Rameriz. We got a partial hit on one and have a very expensive DH to show for all that payroll. I would not jump in with both feet this year. It won't get us a WS anyway. DD should do what he can within the economics which will reset the Luxury tax and try to avoid similar mistakaes going forward.

 

We have seen time and time again that giving big contracts to free agents is not the way to go. I would much prefer to overpay in terms of dollars to get fewer years. There are times when a big contract might be inevitable, but the Moreland, Beltre, Gomes type deals are the way to go with free agents.

[Emp9]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2017-baserunning-batting.shtml

 

Boston leads MLB in OOB (Outs On Base, i.e. outs while making a baserunning play) with 47. The next two are 41 and 40. League Average is 29. Arizona has the best rate and has only run into 17 outs (thanks Lovullo).

 

This is very telling to me

[Kimmi]

Oh, I think it's an issue. They've played a few more games than other teams on average. They're 7th in the A.L. in runs per game, .01 ahead of the Rays, who play in a pitcher's park.

 

The fact is our offense is perfectly mediocre, middle of the pack.

 

There is still a disconnect between the number of base runners we generate and the number of runs we score.

[mvp 78]

This is very telling to me

 

What it says to me is that they seem to be aggressive to a fault. I think there is a way to run aggressively without running foolishly. Seems they are no longer toeing the line between aggressive and foolish.

 

Whether they are pressing for offense, the players just doing whatever they want or an organizational philosophy, it doesn't seem to be working at the moment.

[Bellhorn04]

There is still a disconnect between the number of base runners we generate and the number of runs we score.

 

No doubt, but as I said in another thread, the Sox are 11th in the league in SLG. 11th out of 15! That is really bad.

[Kimmi]

I figured as much.

 

To me, as long as your best hitters are towards the top of the lineup, we shouldn't be picking nits.

 

It's all I've been saying. OK, it's not all I've been saying, but I've tried to make this point several times.

[Emp9]

What it says to me is that they seem to be aggressive to a fault. I think there is a way to run aggressively without running foolishly. Seems they are no longer toeing the line between aggressive and foolish.

 

Whether they are pressing for offense, the players just doing whatever they want or an organizational philosophy, it doesn't seem to be working at the moment.

 

Sorry,I missed OOB. No mouse on this laptop and in general I can only take so many acronyms in one sitting. 29 this year's league avg, last season the league avg was 54. That's a huge league drop. 65 OOB last season for the Sox.