Sox hitting??

[moonslav59]

On another forum, someone was saying that R.Castillo would likely take C.Young's spot next year. Castillo is doing OK in AAA this year--he is probably good enough to be a fourth OF in the major leagues. And he is a few years younger than Young (actually, Castillo is almost four years younger than Young).

 

The Red Sox are paying Castillo anyway and so maybe they would try to get a little value out of him. Since the Red Sox will be under the luxury tax this season, they might not care about going over next season, meaning they might not care about adding Castillo's contract to the overall payroll that determines the luxury tax.

 

I think there is almost a zero chance Chris Young returns to the Red Sox next season. He will turn 34 this Sept, meaning he will turn 35 late in the 2018 season. No thanks. There has to be a better option, a younger and more athletic option.

 

BTW, the Red Sox will no longer be paying Craig after this season. Castillo is due 35 million from 2018-2020 (he won't opt out in 2020).

 

Even though Henry will still be paying Castillo next year whether he's on the 40 man roster or not might play into adding him to the roster and paying the tax,

but I'm not sure they think he's "good enough" to take Young's slot or worthy of making the 25 man roster. If he's not going to be on the 25 man roster, he shouldn't be on the 40 man.

 

The idea is probably under consideration, and how Castillo finishes 2017 might improve or lessen the chances it happens.

 

If we trade for Prado or Harrison, we won't need a 4th OF'er, especially if Holt is expected to be on the 25 man roster next year.

 

The option I think is most likely is where we sign someone to take Moreland and Young's roster slot in one person. A LF/corner IF type who does not need to be as good as either, since I feel we plan on giving Travis and Devers a strong chance to win the jobs. The money saved would allow us to pay all our arb and option raises and stay below the second tier penalty level of the luxury tax.

 

We may want to keep a few million under the limit, so we could make a move at next year's deadline that involved adding salary, if needed.

[moonslav59]

Anyone but the Red Sox......this is the organization that though it was good idea to give Masterson $9.5M plus incentives. "oh well, it was a one year deal".....probably got a bonus for only wasting $9.5M as opposed to $90M.....Red Sox front office evaluation form. "How much money did you save by not giving out multiple year contracts?"

 

I'm not ragging on you Moon. I think we think mostly alike. We appreciate value and we don't mind spending money on value.

 

Say what you will, Price FA signing, Kimbrel trade, Sale trade, Pomeranz trade, they were all bold moves by DD. I suppose we should pen the Carson Smith/Thornburg hiccups to DD but man, I don't think there were red flags on their injuries.

 

I was irate over the Masterson signing. If Young hits lefties well over the second half, as I expect he will, then signing him at $7.5M next year would not be terrible, but I'm against it. When we signed Young, he was expected to play LF vs LHPs and be our 4th OF'er vs RHPs. We don't need that next year. We lust need a capable LF'er who can maybe play 1B or 3B or both. IMO, that could be Holt. Maybe we even get Lin or Marrero to learn how to play LF. Maybe Swihart makes the 25 man roster as a 3rd catcher, 4th OF'er and deep depth at 1B or 3B.

 

I just see too many better options than bringing back Young.

 

[moonslav59]

Astros are a fun, talented team, but they certainly have major holes in their Starting Pitching. They're also a combined 2-7 vs Bos & Cle, and they're bound to face one them come playoffs. There's also a good chance they face TB in post season and that might be a very competitive series. A 10 win total difference is nice (60 wins vs 50 wins), but they've beat up a team like Oak, went 10-2 vs Oak... so I have to slightly question the caliber of their competition. There are reasons why the team with the best record isn't always the best team. But they ARE fun and I like them. If they make a trade to upgrade their SP at the deadline I might buy in a little more.

 

The Astros are about to get their two best starters back from injury, and I'm near certain they will make a significant move (or two) at the deadline to address their rotation. Their pen has looked strong.

 

My guess is Vegas has them with better odds than us at winning the AL. We're probably close to the Guardians.

[Emp9]

I doubt Young returns as well, although I don't think age has anything to do with it, his age or his replacement's.

[a700hitter]

On another forum, someone was saying that R.Castillo would likely take C.Young's spot next year. Castillo is doing OK in AAA this year--he is probably good enough to be a fourth OF in the major leagues. And he is a few years younger than Young (actually, Castillo is almost four years younger than Young).

 

The Red Sox are paying Castillo anyway and so maybe they would try to get a little value out of him. Since the Red Sox will be under the luxury tax this season, they might not care about going over next season, meaning they might not care about adding Castillo's contract to the overall payroll that determines the luxury tax.

 

I think there is almost a zero chance Chris Young returns to the Red Sox next season. He will turn 34 this Sept, meaning he will turn 35 late in the 2018 season. No thanks. There has to be a better option, a younger and more athletic option.

 

BTW, the Red Sox will no longer be paying Craig after this season. Castillo is due 35 million from 2018-2020 (he won't opt out in 2020).

Castillo stinks. He will never wear a Red Sox uniform again because of the luxury tax implications.

[Emp9]

The Astros are about to get their two best starters back from injury, and I'm near certain they will make a significant move (or two) at the deadline to address their rotation. Their pen has looked strong.

 

My guess is Vegas has them with better odds than us at winning the AL. We're probably close to the Guardians.

 

Keuchel and who else?... because McCullers is already pitching. McHugh's been out for a long time and has had setbacks all season.

[moonslav59]

Keuchel and who else?... because McCullers is already pitching. McHugh's been out for a long time and has had setbacks all season.

 

Yeah, McCullers is already back. My bad.

[moonslav59]

Castillo stinks. He will never wear a Red Sox uniform again because of the luxury tax implications.

 

I agree, but if we stay under the second tier penalties, Henry might think it's worth playing Castillo and paying a $2-3M tax over paying someone like Young over $4-5M a year.

 

Henry could "save" by spending.

 

I seriously doubt we ever see RC in a Sox uniform.

[Emp9]

Yeah, McCullers is already back. My bad.

 

Well to be fair, you could've been higher on McHugh than McCullers going back last season than I. McHugh could return this season, but it's a little like our situation with Smith/Thorn or even with Price before he came back after injury. Nobody REALLy knows if said pitcher will return to form and pitchers without a huge track record and history are even tougher to judge. Side note- Peacock has filled a starter role admirably.

[moonslav59]

Well to be fair, you could've been higher on McHugh than McCullers going back last season than I. McHugh could return this season, but it's a little like our situation with Smith/Thorn or even with Price before he came back after injury. Nobody REALLy knows if said pitcher will return to form and pitchers without a huge track record and history are even tougher to judge. Side note- Peacock has filled a starter role admirably.

 

I did not mean McHugh, because I don't think he's due back soon.

 

I've been halfheartedly following the Astros, since moving to Sugar Land 8 years ago.

[mvp 78]

I did not mean McHugh, because I don't think he's due back soon.

 

I've been halfheartedly following the Astros, since moving to Sugar Land 8 years ago.

 

McHugh is already doing rehab starts. He'll be in HOU before the end of the month.

[moonslav59]

McHugh is already doing rehab starts. He'll be in HOU before the end of the month.

 

Last I heard, his whole season was in doubt, but I'm in Maine now, so I'm out of the loop.

[notin]

Castillo stinks. He will never wear a Red Sox uniform again because of the luxury tax implications.

 

 

Castillo may never be back, as Dombrowski is reportedly not a fan, calling him a "fourth outfielder at best" during his showcase. But right now, the guy has had like 300ABs spread out over 2 years, and played through injuries for a good chunk of that.

 

His contract is a stumbling block, although not going over the LT limit this year removes many of those issues. He does play the outfield with reckless abandon, resulting in far too many injuries. And unfortunately for him, that style works.

 

And while Dombrowski initial assessment was a disparaging one, it is worth noting that the role DD pigeon-holed Castillo into is the very role the Sox might use him for....

[moonslav59]

Castillo may never be back, as Dombrowski is reportedly not a fan, calling him a "fourth outfielder at best" during his showcase. But right now, the guy has had like 300ABs spread out over 2 years, and played through injuries for a good chunk of that.

 

His contract is a stumbling block, although not going over the LT limit this year removes many of those issues. He does play the outfield with reckless abandon, resulting in far too many injuries. And unfortunately for him, that style works.

 

And while Dombrowski initial assessment was a disparaging one, it is worth noting that the role DD pigeon-holed Castillo into is the very role the Sox might use him for....

 

The equation may look like this:

 

Option A:

Pay Castillo $11.77M (off the luxury tax books)

+

Pay a free agent $3-6M to be our 4th OF'er

$15-18M Total

 

Option B:

Pay Castillo $11.77M to be our 4th OF'er

+

$2.36M in luxury tax (20% first year)

$14M Total

 

 

[harmony]

The Astros are about to get their two best starters back from injury, and I'm near certain they will make a significant move (or two) at the deadline to address their rotation. Their pen has looked strong.

 

My guess is Vegas has them with better odds than us at winning the AL. We're probably close to the Guardians.

For what it's worth, the FanGraphs Cool Standings give the Astros a 32.1 percent change of winning the American League, the Guardians a 30.9 percent chance and the Red Sox a 21.3 percent chance:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

[moonslav59]

For what it's worth, the FanGraphs Cool Standings give the Astros a 32.1 percent change of winning the American League, the Guardians a 30.9 percent chance and the Red Sox a 21.3 percent chance:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

 

And, if the Astros and Guardians make moves to improve, I guess it's okay with some that we stand pat.

[Kimmi]

For what it's worth, the FanGraphs Cool Standings give the Astros a 32.1 percent change of winning the American League, the Guardians a 30.9 percent chance and the Red Sox a 21.3 percent chance:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

 

I can't argue with that. With a +162 run differential, the Astros are clearly the AL favorites at this time.

 

But as I always say, once you get to the playoffs, it becomes largely a crapshoot.

[Kimmi]

And, if the Astros and Guardians make moves to improve, I guess it's okay with some that we stand pat.

 

I think that is too simplistic an opinion that you are putting onto others. I think most of us want the Sox to make moves to improve, but the question is, at what cost? Am I willing to sacrifice Devers for a marginal upgrade at 3B? No, I'd rather stand pat if that's the case.

[sk7326]

Let's put it this way - the biggest mismatch is STILL probably only 60% chance for the favorite (because of rotating pitchers - and baseball being a fluky game generally). So even in the most dominant year, you still should only really expect the top seed to win about 20% of the time.

 

And that has largely borne out - the best team wire to wire has seemed to win every four years or so (2013 Red Sox, 2009 Yankees, 2005 White Sox ... obviously this is not scientific but just thinking more generally)

[moonslav59]

I think that is too simplistic an opinion that you are putting onto others. I think most of us want the Sox to make moves to improve, but the question is, at what cost? Am I willing to sacrifice Devers for a marginal upgrade at 3B? No, I'd rather stand pat if that's the case.

 

I've said basically the same thing. I was against trading away our 8 year window for a better 4 year window, but now that we did what we did, I'm not for standing pat as a philosophy. I'm hoping we can make some minor tweeks to improve 3B & set-up man. I'm hoping we can do so, without losing Devers or Groome.

 

Try like hell to find a couple good deals, but if massive overpays are all that are out there, then I'd be okay with us making no deals. I'd also like to keep Travis, as he might be a cheap replacement for Moreland. I'd like to keep Chavis, as he represents our best power prospect and may eventually be our 1Bman or DH, but you have to give quality to get quality.

 

My attitude has changed slightly, once I realized the draft pick penalty of luxury tax overage is set at $40M not $20M. I'm not sure our extended future is as bad as it looks. Being able to go over by $39M gives us a lot more wiggle room.

 

[Kimmi]

Let's put it this way - the biggest mismatch is STILL probably only 60% chance for the favorite (because of rotating pitchers - and baseball being a fluky game generally). So even in the most dominant year, you still should only really expect the top seed to win about 20% of the time.

 

And that has largely borne out - the best team wire to wire has seemed to win every four years or so (2013 Red Sox, 2009 Yankees, 2005 White Sox ... obviously this is not scientific but just thinking more generally)

 

Sounds about right.

[Kimmi]

I've said basically the same thing. I was against trading away our 8 year window for a better 4 year window, but now that we did what we did, I'm not for standing pat as a philosophy. I'm hoping we can make some minor tweeks to improve 3B & set-up man. I'm hoping we can do so, without losing Devers or Groome.

 

Try like hell to find a couple good deals, but if massive overpays are all that are out there, then I'd be okay with us making no deals. I'd also like to keep Travis, as he might be a cheap replacement for Moreland. I'd like to keep Chavis, as he represents our best power prospect and may eventually be our 1Bman or DH, but you have to give quality to get quality.

 

My attitude has changed slightly, once I realized the draft pick penalty of luxury tax overage is set at $40M not $20M. I'm not sure our extended future is as bad as it looks. Being able to go over by $39M gives us a lot more wiggle room.

 

 

We are pretty much in agreement here.

 

What worries me about Dombrowski is that I think he is all in. He has built the team to win now, so if he can get a player that he thinks is a difference maker, I think he will go for it, even if it means trading one of our top prospects.

[sk7326]

We are pretty much in agreement here.

 

What worries me about Dombrowski is that I think he is all in. He has built the team to win now, so if he can get a player that he thinks is a difference maker, I think he will go for it, even if it means trading one of our top prospects.

 

This is true - but to his credit his tastes are usually pretty high rent. And he has been aggressively promoting the prospects who he likes. I think it's MUCH more likely he just puts Devers in the lineup than move him for a non-premium trade.

[Kimmi]

This is true - but to his credit his tastes are usually pretty high rent. And he has been aggressively promoting the prospects who he likes. I think it's MUCH more likely he just puts Devers in the lineup than move him for a non-premium trade.

 

I hope you are right. I know that Dombrowski has no qualms about aggressively promoting prospects, but the FO has said over and over that they will not rush Devers. Are they just blowing smoke, or is there something in his game or make up that truly makes them feel that he is not ready?

[sk7326]

I hope you are right. I know that Dombrowski has no qualms about aggressively promoting prospects, but the FO has said over and over that they will not rush Devers. Are they just blowing smoke, or is there something in his game or make up that truly makes them feel that he is not ready?

 

I think they are trying to keep the Nation machine off of him - now, I think it is more likely he goes to Pawtucket to replace Peralta. But remember Benintendi's callup was a surprise - we saw how he had demolished High A and AA and wondered, but the FO left no hints at a pre-September callup coming.

 

As i have noted before - would I be surprised if Devers joined the team next weekend? No. The Red Sox could dream on Lin, Holt (when he returns) and whatever providing a warm body there ... but no other option inside (or maybe outside) the organization has the same sort of ceiling.

[moonslav59]

This is true - but to his credit his tastes are usually pretty high rent. And he has been aggressively promoting the prospects who he likes. I think it's MUCH more likely he just puts Devers in the lineup than move him for a non-premium trade.

 

Any trade of Devers would be a "premium" one. He's the #5 prospect in all of MLB.

 

I hope we don't trade him, but if we do, it should be for a high impact player and probably for 2+ years of control.

 

[mvp 78]

If they trade Devers for anything less than a controllable All Star, I will stop watching for a long f***ing time (not that it would matter to the FO).

 

If you have the top prospect at a position that you are weak at, it makes no sense to do anything but give them a shot.

[moonslav59]

I hope you are right. I know that Dombrowski has no qualms about aggressively promoting prospects, but the FO has said over and over that they will not rush Devers. Are they just blowing smoke, or is there something in his game or make up that truly makes them feel that he is not ready?

 

Maybe there are multiple reasons for slowing his promotions. Maybe most scouts and player evaluators in the system are in agreement on not promoting him swiftly.

 

I trust they know what they are doing. It's not as easy as just looking at the numbers.

 

[moonslav59]

If they trade Devers for anything less than a controllable All Star, I will stop watching for a long f***ing time (not that it would matter to the FO).

 

If you have the top prospect at a position that you are weak at, it makes no sense to do anything but give them a shot.

 

Ding, ding, DING!

 

We have a winner!

[mvp 78]

Maybe there are multiple reasons for slowing his promotions. Maybe most scouts and player evaluators in the system are in agreement on not promoting him swiftly.

 

I trust they know what they are doing. It's not as easy as just looking at the numbers.

 

 

They've just said it's simply due to age. I think they are being careful about the promotion because they see how much of a valuable commodity he is. They aren't treating him with kid gloves, they are treating him with white cotton gloves as if he's an invaluable piece of art.