Sox hitting??

[Slasher9]

No matter how good the #1 and #2 hitters are, the #3 guy still comes up the most often with 2 outs and no men on base. That is not the situation where you want your best hitter. I have said many times that I'd put Mookie 4th. But if the choice is between 1st or 3rd, I'm leaving him in the lead off spot.

.

 

this is simply not true. aka alternative facts.

the Red Sox have played in 84 games so far in 2017.

in the first inning somehow they have managed to get 89 hits, 33 walks, and 6 HBP. i am not even factoring in reaching via error.

based on these numbers i am just spitballing here but it seems to me that the 3 hitter will come up to bat with someone on base a bit more than the guy leading off the game. you know, since it's IMPOSSIBLE for the leadoff hitter to bat with someone on base.......

[Slasher9]

Nope. If it was weather we'd be giving up more runs too, but we're not. Both teams play in the same weather.

on most nights i like our SP and RP more than what the other team trots out. so yeah, there's that....you know...unless of course we can have a automatic pitcher....

[Slasher9]

If you have 3 guys with approximately the same OBP but one of the 3 has HR power that stands out from the other 2, in what order would you bat them?

 

it doesnt matter. hits are random. and it doesnt matter even more because there is no increased motivation, stress, anxiety, pressure, clutchness, effort no matter where, when, or what the situation of the game is.

once we can all grasp this FACT then we can move on from this batting order nonsense.....

[moonslav59]

...Which leaves the problem of what to do when one hitter qualifies for two - or even three - of those spots?

 

And isn't that where we are with Mookie?

 

Not really.

 

If you don't count Lin, and you shouldn't, Betts places 4th in OBP. Although he is just .005 from 2nd, there is no compelling reason to have him lead off, especially when your current 3rd slot hitter (Bogey) is our 5th best SLG % guy! To move Bogey or Pedey to lead off seems obvious, if one can overlook Bogey's recent slump.

 

OBP Leaders

.385 Pedey

.366 JBJ

.362 Bogey

.361 Beni

.361 Betts

.356 Moreland

.349 HRam

.349 Travis

.347 Young

.323 Vaz/.291 Leon

 

It's the slugging that is the most compelling argument to move Betts to the 4 slot (or 3 slot for tradionalists):

 

.500 Betts (should bat 4th)

.494 JBJ (should bat 5th)

 

.465 Beni (ON THE RISE)

.464 Moreland (dipping)'

 

.448 Bogey

.445 HRam (on the rise)

 

.396 Young

.390 Leon/.383 Vaz

.385 Travis

.379 Pedey

 

What sticks out is Pedey's lack of slugging and us only having two guys with a SLG over .465.

 

By the numbers....

 

1) Pedey

2) Bogey

3) Beni v R/HRam v L

4) Betts

5) JBJ

6) HRam v R/Young v L

7) Moreland v R/Travis v L

8) Vaz v R/Leon v L

9) Lin v R/Marrero v L

 

We're looking at 4 platoons! C, 3B, 1B and LF!

 

Let's look at the small sample size 2017 L-R splits:

 

vs RHP

OBP Player SLG

.369 Bogey .461

.365 Beni .492

.363 Pedey .367

.362 Betts .498

.357 Moreland .498

.349 Young .458 (varies widely from his career split norm)

.343 HRam .450

.341 JBJ .450 (varies widely from his career norm splits)

.331 Vaz .362

.204 Marrero .172

 

vs LHPs

.500 Pedey .457

.483 Travis .520

.452 JBJ .648 (big change from career splits)

.385 Marrero .750

.377 HRam .419

.353 Betts .508

.346 Moreland .279

.344 Young .283 (WOW! What a chance from his career norm!)

.340 Beni .310

.328 Bogey .389 (Maybe move Bogey down vs LH'd starters?)

.283 Leon .386

.280 Vaz .500

 

[sk7326]

The OBP of our bottom of the order guys, i.e. Marrero, Pablo, Rutledge, Leon and Vasquez is not even close to .325, and the difference in combined OBP for XB and Pedroia is about 80-90 points higher than the bottom of the order.

 

The Astros and Yankees lineups are also pretty top-heavy (the latter more than the former). That sort of thing is pretty common. The production from 3B has been putrid - this spell of Lin not turning into a pumpkin yet notwithstanding - but the baserunners otherwise are about what you'd expect from a good lineup. Really what the Sox have missed is a general lack of 3-run homerness, although that is getting better.

[notin]

this is simply not true. aka alternative facts.

the Red Sox have played in 84 games so far in 2017.

in the first inning somehow they have managed to get 89 hits, 33 walks, and 6 HBP. i am not even factoring in reaching via error.

based on these numbers i am just spitballing here but it seems to me that the 3 hitter will come up to bat with someone on base a bit more than the guy leading off the game. you know, since it's IMPOSSIBLE for the leadoff hitter to bat with someone on base.......

 

It's also impossible for the leadoff hitter to come up with 2 outs, which was part of the criteria. ..

[a700hitter]

The Astros and Yankees lineups are also pretty top-heavy (the latter more than the former). That sort of thing is pretty common. The production from 3B has been putrid - this spell of Lin not turning into a pumpkin yet notwithstanding - but the baserunners otherwise are about what you'd expect from a good lineup. Really what the Sox have missed is a general lack of 3-run homerness, although that is getting better.

The Astros lineup is stacked. Their bottom of the order is significantly better than the Red Sox bottom of the order. There is no comparison. The Astros are one of those teams where you could pull the lineup from a hat. The bottom of the order for the Yankees is also significantly better than the Red Sox. No comparison there on OBP. And their best OBP guy (by far) Judge does not bat lead off. Girardi is a numbers guy first and foremost --- not a traditionalist.

[sk7326]

The Astros lineup is stacked. Their bottom of the order is significantly better than the Red Sox bottom of the order. There is no comparison. The Astros are one of those teams where you could pull the lineup from a hat. The bottom of the order for the Yankees is also significantly better than the Red Sox. No comparison there on OBP. And their best OBP guy (by far) Judge does not bat lead off. Girardi is a numbers guy first and foremost --- not a traditionalist.

 

You are right - Judge, their best hitter - bats 2nd ... something a numbers guy would do.

 

Headley has not been very good. Neither has Ellsbury. The guy hitting 28 HRs makes it better - and that better is 4 games behind, so who knew.

[Bellhorn04]

3.79 runs a game with Mookie hitting 3rd.

5.58 runs a game with Mookie hitting 1st.

 

We have to do something about this! The Wizards of TalkSox have the solution!

[Emp9]

3.79 runs a game with Mookie hitting 3rd.

5.58 runs a game with Mookie hitting 1st.

 

We have to do something about this! The Wizards of TalkSox have the solution!

 

Sure, I'll say it again, why not...

 

 

It's because they're a 2nd half team.

[cp176]

It's not what works for me, it's what works. You cannot think of the move of Mookie from 1st to 3rd in a vacuum. While Mookie may have more RBI opportunities in the #3 hole than he would in the #1 hole, moving him to the #3 spot also has counter effects, and those counter effects would outweigh the benefits.

 

I have no problem moving Mookie to a better RBI position, but that would be #4, not #3.

 

 

But once again - it is ok if he hits 1st, 2nd, or 4th with you? I like him 3rd regardless of what you indicate that all studies show.

[Emp9]

But once again - it is ok if he hits 1st, 2nd, or 4th with you? I like him 3rd regardless of what you indicate that all studies show.

 

I've an idea. Let's just not bat anyone 3rd. Takes care of that.

[moonslav59]

3.79 runs a game with Mookie hitting 3rd.

5.58 runs a game with Mookie hitting 1st.

 

We have to do something about this! The Wizards of TalkSox have the solution!

 

The whole team was in a slump during the small sample size when Betts batted third.

 

The whole team is in stride now as Betts bats first in this small sample size.

 

I'd trust the studies done on thousands of innings over a couple 40 game sample sizes.

[moonslav59]

RBIs by batting slot in MLB:

 

2015

4th 2949

3rd 2760

5th 2566

2nd 2222

6th 2158

7th 1956

1st 1870

8th 1748

9th 1421

 

2016

4th 3052

3rd 2964

5th 2640

6th 2337

2nd 2257

7th 2015

1st 1996

8th 1976

9th 1511

[cp176]

I've an idea. Let's just not bat anyone 3rd. Takes care of that.

 

I think you are right! Clearly the cess pool of the order regardless of what those playing have played as well as those who have coached might think. lol traditional nitwits be they all!

[cp176]

it doesnt matter. hits are random. and it doesnt matter even more because there is no increased motivation, stress, anxiety, pressure, clutchness, effort no matter where, when, or what the situation of the game is.

once we can all grasp this FACT then we can move on from this batting order nonsense.....

 

i feel your pain

[S5Dewey]

 

And I'm sorry, but your statement that "if someone wants to prove something, there will be studies to confirm it" is a false statement.

 

 

In an absolute sense, yes. But our pal Harmony has proven over and over again that something can be found to discredit - or enhance the image of - just about everyone if one looks for it. Studies are like that.

[Emp9]

I think you are right! Clearly the cess pool of the order regardless of what those playing have played as well as those who have coached might think. lol traditional nitwits be they all!

 

Just think of slot #3 in the batting order is a half dead brain cell. They say people who drink & party of the weekend kill their half dead brain cells, thus become ever-so smarter.

 

It was a study damnit.

[Emp9]

RBIs by batting slot in MLB:

 

2015

4th 2949

3rd 2760

5th 2566

2nd 2222

6th 2158

7th 1956

1st 1870

8th 1748

9th 1421

 

2016

4th 3052

3rd 2964

5th 2640

6th 2337

2nd 2257

7th 2015

1st 1996

8th 1976

9th 1511

 

Good stuff Moon. 4th it is.

[cp176]

Good stuff Moon. 4th it is.

 

4th, 3rd, and 5th spots producing the big rbi's year after year. I think that is obvious where most think the rbi guys in the batting order should be hitting.

[moonslav59]

Good stuff Moon. 4th it is.

 

I think most teams put their best hitter 3rd, so if the guy up 4th is getting more RBIs, part of that has to do with the guy up third getting on base a lot- maybe with a lot of dbls thereby giving the #4 guy more oportunties than if you flipped them, but I think it's safe to surmise from just these numbers that 4 is better than 3 for Betts.

[Emp9]

4th, 3rd, and 5th spots producing the big rbi's year after year. I think that is obvious where most think the rbi guys in the batting order should be hitting.

 

That and More AB aren't necessarily helping mookie (and the team) anyway. He doesn't slump, but he's been either hot or cold by a game by game basis. Three games ago he drove in 8, two games later he left 8 on base. Hot, cold, pedestrian, hot, cold, pedestrian. Which is fine by me, but quality over quantity may be the best approach and more AB doesn't always mean more quality, just quantity.

[dgalehouse]

With some teams , it is fairly obvious how to construct the traditional batting order. The Sox have a number of players who are pretty much interchangeable as to where they bat. The important thing is to have a good lineup one through nine. With that said , my current order would be : Pedroia , Bogaerts, Bradley, Betts, Moreland , Ramirez, Benintendi, Vasquez/Leon , Lin /Marrero. Again , if everything is clicking , it doesn't make much difference. If everything is not clicking , moving the deck chairs around probably will not help matters.

[cp176]

That and More AB aren't necessarily helping mookie (and the team) anyway. He doesn't slump, but he's been either hot or cold by a game by game basis. Three games ago he drove in 8, two games later he left 8 on base. Hot, cold, pedestrian, hot, cold, pedestrian. Which is fine by me, but quality over quantity may be the best approach and more AB doesn't always mean more quality, just quantity.

 

Mookie is unique for sure. if we win, i don't care where he hits. Honestly, i really don't care that much anyway. Currently I would still bat him third.

[moonslav59]

With some teams , it is fairly obvious how to construct the traditional batting order. The Sox have a number of players who are pretty much interchangeable as to where they bat. The important thing is to have a good lineup one through nine. With that said , my current order would be : Pedroia , Bogaerts, Bradley, Betts, Moreland , Ramirez, Benintendi, Vasquez/Leon , Lin /Marrero. Again , if everything is clicking , it doesn't make much difference. If everything is not clicking , moving the deck chairs around probably will not help matters.

a

Moreland is playing hurt and noticeably declining. He should be no higher than 5th and should probably be platooned with Travis as I believe he is now.

[S5Dewey]

Just think of slot #3 in the batting order is a half dead brain cell. They say people who drink & party of the weekend kill their half dead brain cells, thus become ever-so smarter.

 

It was a study damnit.

 

That reminds me of a study Cliff Clavin quoted.

[cp176]

Just think of slot #3 in the batting order is a half dead brain cell. They say people who drink & party of the weekend kill their half dead brain cells, thus become ever-so smarter.

 

It was a study damnit.

 

was that study paid for with my tax dollars?

[Kimmi]

this is simply not true. aka alternative facts.

the Red Sox have played in 84 games so far in 2017.

in the first inning somehow they have managed to get 89 hits, 33 walks, and 6 HBP. i am not even factoring in reaching via error.

based on these numbers i am just spitballing here but it seems to me that the 3 hitter will come up to bat with someone on base a bit more than the guy leading off the game. you know, since it's IMPOSSIBLE for the leadoff hitter to bat with someone on base.......

 

Honestly, I don't know if that's the case or not, but either way, that's not what I said. I said the #3 hitter comes up to bat with 2 outs and 0 men on more than any other position. That's a fact.

 

Another fact, which is part of the problem: A #3 hitter will never lead off the 2nd inning. The 2nd inning is the lowest scoring inning out of all of them. For that reason, it's better to put your best hitter 4th. He will either come up in the first inning with men on base, or he'll lead off the 2nd inning. Win-win.

[Kimmi]

But once again - it is ok if he hits 1st, 2nd, or 4th with you? I like him 3rd regardless of what you indicate that all studies show.

 

Obviously, you and other managers have had success batting their best hitter 3rd. Is it possible, however, that managers could have more success by batting their best hitter in the 1,2 or 4 slots?

 

When several people, working independently of each other, come up with pretty much the same conclusions, I think you have to listen. At least consider it. So a team scores 780 runs in a season and wins 95 games. Very successful season. Perhaps they might have scored 800 runs and won 97 games with a more optimal line up?

[Kimmi]

I've an idea. Let's just not bat anyone 3rd. Takes care of that.