Hernanez vs Pablo

[notin]

Ugh. I didn't realize it was that bad.

 

Sandoval is being saved from release for two reasons. 1) For the amount of money they're paying him they'd like to see him succeed, and 2) there's no one to take his place. As much as I like Hernandez (Plan the FO seems unwilling to give him 3B and let him prove he can't play it with no Plan C in sight.

 

IMO #2 is a better reason than #1, but how long will they be willing to carry a guy who's making multiple errors and hitting around the Mendoza line hoping that both facets of his game will improve?

 

Is there anyone else on this team who could get away with that??

 

 

Hanley Ramirez, two years ago. And his defense was worse...

[moonslav59]

We play game 19 today. That sounds like 1/10th of the season plus. When will the sample size be large enough for a decision or for some action?

 

1/10th of a season is not even close to a valid sample size, especially for a player who just missed a full season due to injury.

 

...I look at our field players and see a lot of quality. Defensively, we have a terrific outfield with an excellent defensive sub in Young. Moreland is certainly a good 1st BM, and Pedroia may have lost some range but is still mid quality defensively in the league. Bogaerts is in the same boat. Good but not great defensively. Then we have Panda who has neither range or ball security. Our catchers are very good defensively. All-in-all we have one weak position....

 

I'm not for Pablo having the FT job no matter what. I just see three weeks as a tiny sample size. I realize 2015 was not a small sample size, and his fielding was even scarier than his bat that year.

 

I've never been "for" Pablo having the FT job, even before the disaster that was 2015. I've wanted him platooned ever since that awful day we signed him.

 

While money certainly playes a role in roster decisions and choices of playing time, I think it goes deeper than that. When a team gives a player that kind of money, they have high expectations. I did not understand their reasoning when the signed him. He had been in serious decline offensively and defensively for 3-4 years. His numbers vs LHPs were screaming for a platoon, and like my warnings when we signed CC, I never understood why anyone would pay that sort of money for a platoon player. The weight issue only added to the risk. The only "reward" I could see was based on a hope that maybe-just maybe- he could give us Papiesque playoff heroics as he had done many times with the Giants. I hated the deal then, and I hate it now.

 

He should have been platooned since day one. I doubt there's be all this talk of replacing him at 3B, if his current OPS was .742. Right now, Pablo's .742 OPS vs RHPs is third on the team for that split. His 3 HRs and 9 RBIs in just 43 ABs vs RHPs is reason enough, for me, to not give up on him just yet.

 

I'm a huge fan of defense, and Pablo's D sickens me. It's one reason I have advocated him switching to 1B or DH, but once we moved HRam to 1B instead of Pablo, the die was cast. When we signed Moreland, any such move was put off for a year-barring injury. With Travis in the wings, it might not happen until HRam's deal expires.

 

I'm a huge Marco fan, and I hated the Pablo signing, so I can see why people cannot understand why I'm still on board with keeping Pablo as our starting 3Bman vs RH'd starters for at least a few more weeks. If he continues to struggle on defense, and yes, there are fielding slumps that can be overcome, then maybe he needs to be benched or moved to DH vs RHPs. That's assuming HRam can play 1B, and Moreland is hitting worse than Pablo (enough to overcome the defense we lose at 1B).

 

What a mess we are in! This whole 3B rollercoaster ride has sucked. We haven't had decent play from that position since we forced two SSs to play it (Iggy & Bogey in 2013).

 

I love Marco, but he is never going to be a long term solution at 3B, and his offense is still in question. His sample size is small, but he has sucked at 3B, too. I don't think he should play 3B right now, but he is at the top of my list for the first guy in, if Pablo fails. I have always had Marco ahead of Holt at just about every position he plays.

 

While .233/.277/.465/.742 is not great, it's the thrid best OPS vs RHPs on the team. If you pro-rate Pablo's numbers vs RHPs to 650 PAs, his stat line would be...

 

.233 37 110

 

This team is struggling to score runs. These are not numbers you bench.

 

These are:

 

.188/.235/.188/.423 (Pablo's numbers vs LHPs) These numbers are not a fluke. He had a .462 OPS vs lefties in his full 2015 season, including a .142 OPS as a RHB'er.

 

w SFG...

 

2013: .686 vs LHPs

2014: .563 vs LHPs

2015: .462

2017: .423

 

What is the problem here? It's as clear as day: Pablo needs to be platooned.

 

Holt has better career numbers vs LHPs than RHPs, and Marco has shown he does not have large split differentials, so even though he's a LHB, he'd be better than Pablo in a platoon.

[Kimmi]

Ridiculously bad signing.

 

I am willing to watch him until June but after that he sits. I'd much rather put my trust in Hernandez or Rutledge. Or even the noodle bat Merrero. At least we know he has an outstanding glove.

 

It was a bad signing. That doesn't change the fact that he's on the team and it's in the team's best interest to give him a fair shot and hope he does well.

 

I understand why people like Hernandez, but I really don't get why people are in such a hurry to throw Pablo off the team. June sounds reasonable, I guess.

[oldtimer]

It was a bad signing. That doesn't change the fact that he's on the team and it's in the team's best interest to give him a fair shot and hope he does well.

 

I understand why people like Hernandez, but I really don't get why people are in such a hurry to throw Pablo off the team. June sounds reasonable, I guess.

 

Moon suggested platooning Pablo as a way to improve the offense. I don't think standing pat with the same offense until sometime in June makes sense. Someone else said it. The definintion of lunacy is to keep doing the same thing and expecting different results.

[S5Dewey]

Hanley Ramirez, two years ago. And his defense was worse...

 

Yes, but Hanley had what turned out to be a very good excuse. He had a shoulder injury. He came back in 2016 to play a better than serviceable first base and hit almost .290 with an OPS of over .850.

 

Sandoval has already come back from his injury and is now replicating the season Hanley had when Hanley was injured.

 

Whether Sandeoval improves has yet to be seen but I'd be amazed to see him become the 2016 version of Hanley Rameriez. IMO the bar has now been set at "serviceable' and in spite of the rhetoric and the weight loss Sandoval isn't even reaching that bar.

[Kimmi]

Yes, but Hanley had what turned out to be a very good excuse. He had a shoulder injury. He came back in 2016 to play a better than serviceable first base and hit almost .290 with an OPS of over .850.

 

Sandoval has already come back from his injury and is now replicating the season Hanley had when Hanley was injured.

 

Whether Sandeoval improves has yet to be seen but I'd be amazed to see him become the 2016 version of Hanley Rameriez. IMO the bar has now been set at "serviceable' and in spite of the rhetoric and the weight loss Sandoval isn't even reaching that bar.

 

If the bar has been set at serviceable, it's because we have no better options. Can Pablo be better than serviceable? Is Marco better than serviceable? Maybe, maybe not, but I do know that 18 games into the season is way too soon to be making those kinds of determinations.

[sk7326]

Sox are currently 5th in the majors in on-base percentage ... really what we are asking is about turning baserunners into runs scored. The overwhelming likelihood is that this is a problem that will cure itself.

[moonslav59]

Sox are currently 5th in the majors in on-base percentage ... really what we are asking is about turning baserunners into runs scored. The overwhelming likelihood is that this is a problem that will cure itself.

 

Remember all the people blaming our offensive woes on the lack of timely hitting?

 

 

Sox leaders in very tiny 2017 sample sizes:

 

High Leverage (10+ PAs):

1.029 Moreland

.798 Sandoval (Leader in High Leverage RBIs with 6)

.748 M Betts

.730 Pedroia

.673 HRam

.650 Leon

.615 Bogey

.607 Beni

 

2 Outs RISP (7+ PAs):

1.515 Beni (leader in RBIs here with 8)

1.155 Pablo (2nd in RBIs with 5)

1.029 Pedey

.944 Betts

.311 HRam

 

Late & Close (9+ PAs)

1.038 Moreland

1.010 Betts

.808 Leon (6 RBIs -Late & Close leader)

.733 Young

.701 Beni

.615 Bogey

.539 Pedey

.508 Pablo (but 2nd in Late & Close RBIs with 3)

 

 

 

 

 

[Northern Star]

It was a bad signing. That doesn't change the fact that he's on the team and it's in the team's best interest to give him a fair shot and hope he does well.

 

I understand why people like Hernandez, but I really don't get why people are in such a hurry to throw Pablo off the team. June sounds reasonable, I guess.

 

It would be much easier if we didn't have HanRam on the roster too. Two DHs, can only use one at a time.

[Jasonbay44]

It would be much easier if we didn't have HanRam on the roster too. Two DHs, can only use one at a time.

 

Sandoval isn't even worth a DH spot, he hasn't been good at any point in his Red Sox career, its year 3 now.

[Spudboy]

Sandoval isn't even worth a DH spot, he hasn't been good at any point in his Red Sox career, its year 3 now.

 

What good is a DH that has platoon splits?

 

Have there been some really good ones?

[mvp 78]

What good is a DH that has platoon splits?

 

Have there been some really good ones?

 

Young faces lefties, Pablo righties?

[moonslav59]

Maybe this, if Moreland tanks, gets hurt, or looks like a worse hitter than Pablo by late May...

 

vs RHPs:

3B: Hernandez

1B: Sandoval

DH: HRam

 

vs LHPs:

3B: Rutledge

1B: HRam

DH: Young

 

We could see this next year:

 

vs RHPs:

1B: Pablo

DH: HanRam

 

vs LHPs:

1B: Travis

DH: HanRam

[Jack Flap]

When we traded both Shaw and Moncada and failed to add some other third baseman who could credibly challenge for the starting job, it was clear the plan was to commit to Pablo, for better or worse. He's not going to be benched two weeks into the season.

[Bellhorn04]

When we traded both Shaw and Moncada and failed to add some other third baseman who could credibly challenge for the starting job, it was clear the plan was to commit to Pablo, for better or worse. He's not going to be benched two weeks into the season.

 

And our lack of depth at the position is such that even if they do decide to give Hernandez a shot they'll probably keep Pablo around.

[S5Dewey]

Maybe this, if Moreland tanks, gets hurt, or looks like a worse hitter than Pablo by late May...

 

vs RHPs:

3B: Hernandez

1B: Sandoval

DH: HRam

 

vs LHPs:

3B: Rutledge

1B: HRam

DH: Young

 

We could see this next year:

 

vs RHPs:

1B: Pablo

DH: HanRam

 

vs LHPs:

1B: Travis

DH: HanRam

 

This makes things look worse all the time re: Sandoval. With this proposal Pablo is carried on the roster only for times when he can play 1B (something he hasn't even attempted to do yet) and only against RH pitchers.

 

If this turns out to be what the FO would think is viable I hope they just dump Sandoval by whatever means and give the 1B job to Sam Travis. At least Sam has played 1B before! And well.

[cp176]

This makes things look worse all the time re: Sandoval. With this proposal Pablo is carried on the roster only for times when he can play 1B (something he hasn't even attempted to do yet) and only against RH pitchers.

 

If this turns out to be what the FO would think is viable I hope they just dump Sandoval by whatever means and give the 1B job to Sam Travis. At least Sam has played 1B before! And well.

 

For better or for worse we are stuck with the Panda. I think that they will play him. They won't platoon him either. When he actually starts to cost us games, that is when the change gets made. Hernandez would provide a defensive upgrade for sure but I just don't think they see him as our third baseman going forward. I think that Hernandez could handle the job but I don't think that he is the answer at third going forward.

[S5Dewey]

For better or for worse we are stuck with the Panda. I think that they will play him. They won't platoon him either. When he actually starts to cost us games, that is when the change gets made. Hernandez would provide a defensive upgrade for sure but I just don't think they see him as our third baseman going forward. I think that Hernandez could handle the job but I don't think that he is the answer at third going forward.

 

Unfortunately..... I agree with ^^this post^^. Mine was wishful thinking, I guess. :-(

 

This goes back to my not understanding why they signed Sandoval in the first place. IMHO the guy manning 3B for a contending team should be able to carry at a dWAR (there I go using WAR. Ugh) of at least 0.0 - something he hasn't done since 2011 and has done only three times in his career.

 

In addition, my being a "solid up the middle, power at the corners" guy he should also be able to carry an OPS of ~.800, a goal he last attained in 2012.

 

And all of this for $17.6MM, Double UGH.

[notin]

Sandoval was an awful signing. I thought that was evident from Day One.

 

My only hope is that he can turn it around this year and at least be a respectable player. The slow start isn't encouraging, but I am hoping he can be like Adrian Beltre (yeah right), who had a .624 OPS at this point in 2010 and had wiped out two left fielders before turning it around and putting up an MVP-caliber season.

 

I doubt Sandoval ever improves enough to be a marketable trade chip. But the Sox (and many other teams) have survived awful contracts before and still been successful.

[notin]

Yes, but Hanley had what turned out to be a very good excuse. He had a shoulder injury. He came back in 2016 to play a better than serviceable first base and hit almost .290 with an OPS of over .850.

 

Sandoval has already come back from his injury and is now replicating the season Hanley had when Hanley was injured.

 

Whether Sandeoval improves has yet to be seen but I'd be amazed to see him become the 2016 version of Hanley Rameriez. IMO the bar has now been set at "serviceable' and in spite of the rhetoric and the weight loss Sandoval isn't even reaching that bar.

 

 

Hanley definitely had a better excuse, but at the time very few on this board (or technically BDC) seemed to care. He did get labeled as a colossal bust almost universally, to the point where Cafardo insisted Dombrowski's number one task was going to be to unload Hanley.

 

Hanley certainly did turn it around last year despite a slow start. But he is also a far, far more talented hitter than Sandoval...

[notin]

I figured Holt would be the easy replacement over Hernandez if the Sox did a switch at third, but this vertigo issue could be a bigger deal. It's not something a lot of players seem to get diagnosed with, so my only reference point is Nick Esasky, whose career was completely derailed by it...

[illinoisredsox]

I figured Holt would be the easy replacement over Hernandez if the Sox did a switch at third, but this vertigo issue could be a bigger deal. It's not something a lot of players seem to get diagnosed with, so my only reference point is Nick Esasky, whose career was completely derailed by it...

 

I think JD Drew was on the DL a couple of times with vertigo.

 

If I remember right, Holt missed considerable time with concussions symptoms last season (I'm thinking around 6 weeks). And I think he has had more than one concussion in his short career. One has to wonder if there is relation (at least as a contributing factor if not the main one).

[jacksonianmarch]

Post concussive vertigo is rather common, but it typically starts at the time of the head injury, not months or years after. This is probably due to labrynthitis or an otolith unless he suffered another head injury that we don't know of

[moonslav59]

This makes things look worse all the time re: Sandoval. With this proposal Pablo is carried on the roster only for times when he can play 1B (something he hasn't even attempted to do yet) and only against RH pitchers.

 

If this turns out to be what the FO would think is viable I hope they just dump Sandoval by whatever means and give the 1B job to Sam Travis. At least Sam has played 1B before! And well.

 

Well, at least hitting against RHPs is the larger split. It was over 67% of the games last year. Plus, he might PH and play in the games where a lefty starts but is replaced.

 

I'm far from happy with this reality, but it seems like the Sox refuse to look at Pablo as nothing but a platoon player.

 

I will not be too happy, if Pablo plays 1B or DH and hits .732 as a platoon hitter vs RHPs either. (That's his split vs RHPs since joining the Sox back in 2015. However, that is not a number that screams out for replacement either. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the guys sucks vs LHPs and has no business starting vs one, unless we have nobody else who can play 3B.

 

There was much talk about Pablo's decline before coming to the Sox, but on offense, that was almost entirely fueled by his numbers vs LHP, which all but fell off a cliff.

 

His .805 OPS vs RHPs from 2013-2014 placed him 6th out of 41 3Bmen with 400+ PAs vs RHPs in that two year period.

 

If the guy could just hit somewhere between .732 and .805 AND was used exclusively as a platoon player (preferably at DH or 1B), then maybe he could actually be a slight plus to the team.

 

[moonslav59]

This goes back to my not understanding why they signed Sandoval in the first place. IMHO the guy manning 3B for a contending team should be able to carry at a dWAR (there I go using WAR. Ugh) of at least 0.0 - something he hasn't done since 2011 and has done only three times in his career.

 

He was decent in 2014. He had a +3.5 UZR/150 and a +4 DRS.

 

2015 was night and day:

 

-21.9 UZR/150

-11 DRS

 

(So far this year, he's at -16.3 UZR/150 and -4 DRS.)

[bosoxmal]

Platoon Pablo with whom? Holt, Hernandez, Hanley? I wish Hanley could do something besides DH. Before the year is over, I can see him platooning with Moreland. That doesn't help 1B. The hernandez situation may solve itself what with Pedroia getting hurt more and more. He's wearing down. We don't want him to, but he is. That settles in Hernandez. I would be tickled to death if they stuck Ramiriz and Pablo in a package, and sent them to the Yankees!

[moonslav59]

Platoon Pablo with whom? Holt, Hernandez, Hanley? I wish Hanley could do something besides DH.

 

Seriously?

 

Put all the names in a hat, and you can't do worse.

 

Pablo's OPS vs LHPs recently:

 

.423 2017

.465 2015

.563 2014

 

Out of 250 MLB players with 250+ PAs vs LHPs since 2014, Pablo is the worst at .516.

 

250th out of 250, and you ask who can platoon with him?

 

I'm not even talking about his defense either!

 

Although Hernandez bats LH'd, he has had decent splits in the minors vs LHPs.

 

When Holt is healthy, he has slightly better splits vs LHPs, even though he bats LH'd. Rutledge is near ready. He can't be worse, and is a better defender than Pablo. Marrero can even hit lefties better. Matt freakin Domingues has a career .653 OPS vs LHPs and is a better defender at 3B.

 

I could probably go down to AA and find someone better.

 

We can't do worse than the worst batter vs LHPs and the worst defenser at 3B since 2014.

 

 

 

[Nick]

Seriously?

 

Put all the names in a hat, and you can't do worse.

 

Pablo's OPS vs LHPs recently:

 

.423 2017

.465 2015

.563 2014

 

Out of 250 MLB players with 250+ PAs vs LHPs since 2014, Pablo is the worst at .516.

 

250th out of 250, and you ask who can platoon with him?

 

I'm not even talking about his defense either!

 

Although Hernandez bats LH'd, he has had decent splits in the minors vs LHPs.

 

When Holt is healthy, he has slightly better splits vs LHPs, even though he bats LH'd. Rutledge is near ready. He can't be worse, and is a better defender than Pablo. Marrero can even hit lefties better. Matt freakin Domingues has a career .653 OPS vs LHPs and is a better defender at 3B.

 

I could probably go down to AA and find someone better.

 

We can't do worse than the worst batter vs LHPs and the worst defenser at 3B since 2014.

 

 

 

 

JF wants to hide Pablo's failure vs LHP with success he may have vs RHP and batting left handed.

 

BUT WE ARE ON TO THAT-I DON'T CARE HOW GOOD HE IS FROM LEFT SIDE, HE CAN'T HIDE HIS WEAK BAT FROM RIGHT SIDE VS LHP.

 

Does JF manage with his fingers crossed every time Pablo comes to bat vs LHP?

[jad]

Post concussive vertigo is rather common, but it typically starts at the time of the head injury, not months or years after. This is probably due to labrynthitis or an otolith unless he suffered another head injury that we don't know of

 

? Can you give a quick explanation of the conditions you note in sentence 2? Thanks

[moonslav59]

JF wants to hide Pablo's failure vs LHP with success he may have vs RHP and batting left handed.

 

BUT WE ARE ON TO THAT-I DON'T CARE HOW GOOD HE IS FROM LEFT SIDE, HE CAN'T HIDE HIS WEAK BAT FROM RIGHT SIDE VS LHP.

 

Does JF manage with his fingers crossed every time Pablo comes to bat vs LHP?

 

If Pablo ends up facing a lefty RP'er, that's one thing, but starting him vs a lefty is criminal.