A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Fisk]

When Young is playing I would shift Pablo and Bradley one spot down and bat him sixth.

[moonslav59]

Are you using last year's data? I don't think the data gives a good indication of where hitters should bat, because most managers are still setting their lineups according to the conventional roles.

 

The studies that are done look at the entire season. Even with the #3 slot getting more PAs than #4 over the season, the team would be better off with Mookie batting 4th rather than 3rd.

 

All that said, the difference between Mookie batting 3rd or 4th is really, really small. Insignificant really. Farrell should bat him and the rest of the team where they feel most comfortable batting.

 

Yes, these are MLB's 2016 numbers as a whole.

 

I said it was a simple way of looking at the slots, and I do not doubt the reports that show 2, 4 and 5 are more important than 3.

 

I like 3 over 4 & 5 due to getting more PAs, and I like 3 over 1 & 2, because Betts has more power, and I think we can find 2 guys with equal or better OBP skills than Betts to bat ahead of him.

 

Last year, Pedey had a better OBP than Betts, and Bogey was nearly equal. I'm hoping Beni become one (at least vs RHPs). I could see this being the eventual best line-up:

 

1) Beni

2) Bogey

3) Pedey

4) Betts

5) HanRam

 

However, I think the splits from Bogey and Beni might be too drastic to keep a set line-up. I might like this better:

 

vs RHPs

1) Beni

2) Pedey

3) Betts

4) HanRam

5) JBJ

6) Bogey

 

vs LHPs

1) Bogey

2) Pedey

3) Betts

4) HanRam

5) Young (DH)

6) Beni

7) JBJ

 

[moonslav59]

When Young is playing I would shift Pablo and Bradley one spot down and bat him sixth.

 

Young rates to be way better than Beni vs LHPs. I'd shift somehow to put Young 5th.

[Fisk]

Young rates to be way better than Beni vs LHPs. I'd shift somehow to put Young 5th.

 

Don't think Farrell is going to want to move Beni around the order.

[harmony]

FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer and ZiPS project Chris Young with 2017 wRC+ of 97, 99 and 96, respectively, in 88, 72 and 98 games:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3882&position=OF

[moonslav59]

Don't think Farrell is going to want to move Beni around the order.

 

Not batting Young in the top 5 vs LHPs is borderline criminal. He's been one of MLB's best hitters vs lefties over the last 2-3 years.

 

I doubt Beni would mind batting in 2 different slots this year as a rookie. Even if Beni does feel uncomfortable, there's no denying Young deserves to bat higher up in the line-up than 6th with numbers like these, besides, what about Young's feelings? I'd be pretty upset sporting a .980 OPs and batting below the 5 slot.

 

2015-2016 (232 MLB players with 180+ PAs vs LHPs)

1.076 Goldschmidt

1.061 N Cruz

1.024 W Flores

1.011 Trout

.984 Braun

.980 Young

 

Only 4 guys had more PAs and a better OPS vs lefties. That puts Young in the top 2% vs lefties.

 

If we want a larger sample size and look at 2014-2016, only 23 MLBs had more PAs and a better OPS vs LHPs than Young's .875 OPS in 351 PAs. In this sample size he's top 14% in MLB. Only Hanley Ramirez has better numbers vs lefties in this time period and is on the Sox roster. That .875 in better than EE's numbers vs lefties.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer and ZiPS project Chris Young with 2017 wRC+ of 97, 99 and 96, respectively, in 88, 72 and 98 games:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3882&position=OF

 

That includes PAs vs RHPs, which of course Young will get, even in a strict platoon, but here are Young's most recent overall wRC+ numbers. I see no reason to expect a massive drop off, unless he is forced to play vs RHPs more than desired.

 

2014: 95

2015: 110

2016: 125

[Nick]

Glad to see Sale on the mound for four strong innings (1H, 0R, 1BB, 4K, 41-55 strikes). I'd be worried about our rotation at this point if not for him and even with Buch on board. Just a great pickup.

 

Pablo is close to locking down 3B. Made three good plays at third so far.

Edited March 11, 2017 by Nick

[Kimmi]

Just as important as ideally where each hitter should hit, is the breaking up of all the righties at the top of the order. I do want Betts to get as many at bats as possible, so I would place him second.

 

Breaking up the righties (and more so the lefties) will benefit a line up more in the long run than trying to place each batter in his prototypical spot.

[Kimmi]

Yes, these are MLB's 2016 numbers as a whole.

 

I said it was a simple way of looking at the slots, and I do not doubt the reports that show 2, 4 and 5 are more important than 3.

 

I like 3 over 4 & 5 due to getting more PAs, and I like 3 over 1 & 2, because Betts has more power, and I think we can find 2 guys with equal or better OBP skills than Betts to bat ahead of him.

 

Last year, Pedey had a better OBP than Betts, and Bogey was nearly equal. I'm hoping Beni become one (at least vs RHPs). I could see this being the eventual best line-up:

 

1) Beni

2) Bogey

3) Pedey

4) Betts

5) HanRam

 

However, I think the splits from Bogey and Beni might be too drastic to keep a set line-up. I might like this better:

 

vs RHPs

1) Beni

2) Pedey

3) Betts

4) HanRam

5) JBJ

6) Bogey

 

vs LHPs

1) Bogey

2) Pedey

3) Betts

4) HanRam

5) Young (DH)

6) Beni

7) JBJ

 

 

Farrell knows his players better than any of us do. I tend to think that players like as much consistency as possible and would prefer not to be moved around in the lineup, but maybe it doesn't bother them as much as I think it does. It is Farrell's job to put the batters where they feel the most comfortable and thereby will be the most productive.

[Kimmi]

Glad to see Sale on the mound for four strong innings (1H, 0R, 1BB, 4K, 41-55 strikes). I'd be worried about our rotation at this point if not for him and even with Buch on board. Just a great pickup.

 

Pablo is close to locking down 3B. Made three good plays at third so far.

 

Owens, OTOH, was terrible once again.

 

I am really liking the pick up of Kendrick more and more every day. He has had a far better K/BB ratio than either Owens or Johnson, and has moved himself up the depth chart.

 

His first opt out date is June 15 (I think), but with the injury to Price, and the questionable health of Wright, Pom, and ERod, Kendrick might find himself getting quite a few big league starts.

[Nick]

Owens, OTOH, was terrible once again.

 

I am really liking the pick up of Kendrick more and more every day. He has had a far better K/BB ratio than either Owens or Johnson, and has moved himself up the depth chart.

 

His first opt out date is June 15 (I think), but with the injury to Price, and the questionable health of Wright, Pom, and ERod, Kendrick might find himself getting quite a few big league starts.

 

I enjoy watching Kendrick pitch because he just goes after the hitters. No nibbling on the corners. He pitches to contact. He looks to be a gamer. I hate whimps.

[mvp 78]

Kendrick is a real option to fill in, unlike last year's options.

[Fisk]

I enjoy watching Kendrick pitch because he just goes after the hitters. No nibbling on the corners. He pitches to contact. He looks to be a gamer. I hate whimps.

 

I'm hoping Brian Bannister has worked with Kendrick and figured something out. He has been impressive.

 

Owens just seems totally lost, I think he is around our 10th option.

[Nick]

I'm hoping Brian Bannister has worked with Kendrick and figured something out. He has been impressive.

 

Owens just seems totally lost, I think he is around our 10th option.

 

It's tough to pitch in the majors if you can't throw strikes and every hitter in the league knows it.

[Bellhorn04]

Nice to see Workman's name in some box scores again.

[Behindenemylines]

I'm hoping Brian Bannister has worked with Kendrick and figured something out. He has been impressive.

 

Owens just seems totally lost, I think he is around our 10th option.

 

Kendrick gives the Sox options to start the season. Don't have to rush Price.

[moonslav59]

Farrell knows his players better than any of us do. I tend to think that players like as much consistency as possible and would prefer not to be moved around in the lineup, but maybe it doesn't bother them as much as I think it does. It is Farrell's job to put the batters where they feel the most comfortable and thereby will be the most productive.

 

I think you might be surprised how much batters already are moved around.

 

Pedey abtted 1st for 213 PAs and 470 2nd.

Betts batted 1st for 516 PAs and 159 up 4th and 55 others.

Bogey batted 229 up 2nd and 482 up 3rd

Papi batted 197 up 3rd and 418 up 4th

HanRam batted 82 up 4th and 521 up 5th.

JBJ: 96 up 5th, 236 up 6th, 82 up 7th, 55 up 8th, and 147 up 9th

Shaw batted all over the place.

[Kimmi]

I think you might be surprised how much batters already are moved around.

 

Pedey abtted 1st for 213 PAs and 470 2nd.

Betts batted 1st for 516 PAs and 159 up 4th and 55 others.

Bogey batted 229 up 2nd and 482 up 3rd

Papi batted 197 up 3rd and 418 up 4th

HanRam batted 82 up 4th and 521 up 5th.

JBJ: 96 up 5th, 236 up 6th, 82 up 7th, 55 up 8th, and 147 up 9th

Shaw batted all over the place.

 

No, I'm not surprised.

 

I'm guessing that the batters batting out of different spots was not a daily or frequent change though, based on who the opposing pitcher was.

 

In Pedroia's case, for instance, he batted 2nd almost every game until Farrell moved him to the leadoff spot based on team needs. Once he moved to the leadoff spot, he batted leadoff almost every game for the rest of the season. In other words, he wasn't moved back and forth based on whether a righty or lefty was pitching.

 

I think it was a similar case for most of the regular starters.

[moonslav59]

No, I'm not surprised.

 

I'm guessing that the batters batting out of different spots was not a daily or frequent change though, based on who the opposing pitcher was.

 

In Pedroia's case, for instance, he batted 2nd almost every game until Farrell moved him to the leadoff spot based on team needs. Once he moved to the leadoff spot, he batted leadoff almost every game for the rest of the season. In other words, he wasn't moved back and forth based on whether a righty or lefty was pitching.

 

I think it was a similar case for most of the regular starters.

 

Granted, the Sox rarely move people around in the line-up based on lefty-righty starters, but it does happen a significant amount of time in MLB. Players do move to different slots and adjust well.

 

I don't think we do it enough.

 

I get the "comfort and routine" argument, but there has to be a tipping point somewhere that over rides that advantage.

 

Would you keep batting a guy with a .300 OPS vs LHPs in the same slot? How about .400? .500? .550?

 

I like to use the Young example. Even if his .875-.950 recent sample size OPS are outliers, and he's rated to hit about .800-850 vs LHPs this year, if that's 200 points higher than someone else, Id' flip them in the line-up.

[Kimmi]

Granted, the Sox rarely move people around in the line-up based on lefty-righty starters, but it does happen a significant amount of time in MLB. Players do move to different slots and adjust well.

 

I don't think we do it enough.

 

I get the "comfort and routine" argument, but there has to be a tipping point somewhere that over rides that advantage.

 

Would you keep batting a guy with a .300 OPS vs LHPs in the same slot? How about .400? .500? .550?

 

I like to use the Young example. Even if his .875-.950 recent sample size OPS are outliers, and he's rated to hit about .800-850 vs LHPs this year, if that's 200 points higher than someone else, Id' flip them in the line-up.

 

We'll just have to disagree on the topic of batting order. The changes in the lineup just are not significant enough to worry about micromanaging it on a daily basis.

[jad]

I'm sure guys don't like to be moved in the batting order. Wade Boggs ate chicken every day too, and most players won't step on the white lines coming off the field. Whether as a manager you should cater to these silly superstitions--that's a different question.

[moonslav59]

I realize that most players prefer to have a pretty set slot in the line-up from day to day, but at some point the balance swings to moving a player to another slot or platooning him.

 

My "tipping point" is probably a lot tighter than most, but there are just some cases that scream out for a move.

 

To me, the biggest issues are:

 

1) Chris Young should bat in a top 5 slot when a lefty starts. I suppose I could live with the 6 slot to help keep continuity" with the top 5 slots, but he deserves to be top 5.

 

2) Pablo should probably be platooned, but at the very least, he should be dropped in the order vs LHPs to the 8 or 9 slot.

 

3) Moreland is much better vs RHPs and will probably be platooned this year. Moreland at 1B vs RHPs with HanRam at DH/ HanRam at 1B vs LHPs with Young at DH (or Travis at 1B and HR at DH FT).

 

4) Bogey has a .130 split differential in his career. This is pretty close to demanding an adjustment, but I'm okay with keeping him near the same slot as much as possible, if he seems like the type to is bothered by batting in 2 slots based on a lefty or righty starting for the opps.

 

I don't think my line-up suggestions are too radical. A lot depends on how Beni does. Will he eventually hit lead off, 2nd or 3rd or not higher than 6th? There's even a chance he may end up platooned with Young on a semi-regular basis. Assuming he does well, this is about as "set" as I'd go:

 

vs RHPs:

1 Beni L

2 Pedey R

3 Betts R

4 HanRam R

5 JBJ L

6 Bogey R

7 Pablo L

8 Moreland L

9 Leon L

 

vs LHPs

1 Beni L

2 Pedey R

3 Betts R

4 HanRam R

5 Young R

6 Bogey R

7 JBJ L

8 Rutledge/Pablo

9 Leon/Vaz

 

Personally, I'd move Flip Bogey and Beni vs LHPs, but the above line-ups have minimal but critical movement.

 

[FredLynn]

I realize that most players prefer to have a pretty set slot in the line-up from day to day, but at some point the balance swings to moving a player to another slot or platooning him.

 

My "tipping point" is probably a lot tighter than most, but there are just some cases that scream out for a move.

 

To me, the biggest issues are:

 

1) Chris Young should bat in a top 5 slot when a lefty starts. I suppose I could live with the 6 slot to help keep continuity" with the top 5 slots, but he deserves to be top 5.

 

2) Pablo should probably be platooned, but at the very least, he should be dropped in the order vs LHPs to the 8 or 9 slot.

 

3) Moreland is much better vs RHPs and will probably be platooned this year. Moreland at 1B vs RHPs with HanRam at DH/ HanRam at 1B vs LHPs with Young at DH (or Travis at 1B and HR at DH FT).

 

4) Bogey has a .130 split differential in his career. This is pretty close to demanding an adjustment, but I'm okay with keeping him near the same slot as much as possible, if he seems like the type to is bothered by batting in 2 slots based on a lefty or righty starting for the opps.

 

I don't think my line-up suggestions are too radical. A lot depends on how Beni does. Will he eventually hit lead off, 2nd or 3rd or not higher than 6th? There's even a chance he may end up platooned with Young on a semi-regular basis. Assuming he does well, this is about as "set" as I'd go:

 

vs RHPs:

1 Beni L

2 Pedey R

3 Betts R

4 HanRam R

5 JBJ L

6 Bogey R

7 Pablo L

8 Moreland L

9 Leon L

 

vs LHPs

1 Beni L

2 Pedey R

3 Betts R

4 HanRam R

5 Young R

6 Bogey R

7 JBJ L

8 Rutledge/Pablo

9 Leon/Vaz

 

Personally, I'd move Flip Bogey and Beni vs LHPs, but the above line-ups have minimal but critical movement.

 

 

Thats a scary potential black hole v RHP with the last three guys in that lineup.

[Fisk]

Thats a scary potential black hole v RHP with the last three guys in that lineup.

 

Sandavol and Moreland are very good against righties.

[FredLynn]

Sandavol and Moreland are very good against righties.

 

Mitch Moreland last year had reverse splits, actually. His OPS v RHP was just .700; v LHP it was .799.

Sandoval in 2015, the last year he played, had an OPS of .744. His OPS has decreased annually for many years. While he may improve, I would not expect it.

Leon has a career OPS v RHP of .653. He is better against lefties.

 

Like I said, the bottom third of the lineup could be problematic v RHP.

[Nick]

Love watching our future starting catching run around the bases for a triple...Swihart is simply an athlete. Dad was his coach in high school, pitched a little. He has a strong arm. Loves to hit.

 

Anyone else intrigued by Junior Lake? He looks like a player

Edited March 12, 2017 by Nick

[Fisk]

Mitch Moreland last year had reverse splits, actually. His OPS v RHP was just .700; v LHP it was .799.

Sandoval in 2015, the last year he played, had an OPS of .744. His OPS has decreased annually for many years. While he may improve, I would not expect it.

Leon has a career OPS v RHP of .653. He is better against lefties.

 

Like I said, the bottom third of the lineup could be problematic v RHP.

 

Moreland career 780 ops against righties, Sandavol think can easily beat his 744 from 2015, considering his shoulder injury and the shape he was in. Even if he doesn't beat the 744,for the seventh and eighth spots in the lineup it is much better then league average.

[Nick]

Solid outing for E Rod......

 

Lets look back. All of us had our panties in a wad when we heard he 'tweaked' his knee in winter ball. He did tell us not to worry.

 

He simply looks comfortable out there. I am glad that he's focusing on the season. This is HIS comparable year to Lester's break out year.

 

I predict Price will be fine. Just need to see Wright and Pom get on the mound next week.

 

Sandoval with couple hits including a homer to dead center today. I've trashed him as much as anyone else but I'm glad he's healthy and playing well.

 

Swihart with his second hit. I'm sorry but offensively, I'd take Swihart over the other two. He needs to stay behind the plate. We'll have a catcher with speed that can hit .300. Not too many of those out there.

Edited March 12, 2017 by Nick

[Fisk]

Love watching our future starting catching run around the bases for a triple...Swihart is simply an athlete. Dad was his coach in high school, pitched a little. He has a strong arm. Loves to hit.

 

Anyone else intrigued by Junior Lake? He looks like a player

 

Would not be surprised to see Swihart win the job out of spring training, I know it hurts our flexibility, but have no faith in Leon.