A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[jad]

The fact that Castillo and Craig are off the 40 man roster doesn't mean they have no impact on the payroll. I'm sure Henry takes them into account when he calculates the team's profit. Also, if they do by chance play well and you want to use them, you have to put them back on the 40 man and incur the tax.

 

I notice Castillo is hitting over .400 in ST. Does this mean he may actually show up on the team? (Or does this simply mean they haven't been throwing him any curve balls or fast balls anywhere other than over the plate?)

[mvp 78]

I notice Castillo is hitting over .400 in ST. Does this mean he may actually show up on the team? (Or does this simply mean they haven't been throwing him any curve balls or fast balls anywhere other than over the plate?)

 

Nope, AAA.

[Fisk]

First cuts today included Workman, Johnson , Owens and Devers. Workman surprised me has been getting good results. Wonder if his stuff is still diminished.

[moonslav59]

First cuts today included Workman, Johnson , Owens and Devers. Workman surprised me has been getting good results. Wonder if his stuff is still diminished.

 

He has options left- something Abad, Hembree and others do not, and I think management probably feels he needs more time to get to his best.

 

If he truly has recovered, he'll get ample opportunities to show he belongs in the bigs.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR ranks next year's possible FA class:

 

1. Jake Arrieta

2. Yu Darvish

3. Johnny Cueto

4. Mashiro Tanaka

5. Jonathan Lucroy

6. JD Martinez

7. Eric Hosmer

8. Justin Upton

9. Carlos Gonzalez

10. Mike Moustakes

"Just misses": C Tillman, T Frazier, M Pineda, C Santana, L Cain & W Davis.

[Fisk]

He has options left- something Abad, Hembree and others do not, and I think management probably feels he needs more time to get to his best.

 

If he truly has recovered, he'll get ample opportunities to show he belongs in the bigs.

 

I understand the options part I am just surprised he was among 1st cuts. My guess is his stuff has not come all the way back. Have not heard any scouting reports on him this spring

[moonslav59]

I understand the options part I am just surprised he was among 1st cuts. My guess is his stuff has not come all the way back. Have not heard any scouting reports on him this spring

 

I'm sure he's still going to work on returning to a higher level- just not with the big club in ST'ing. Maybe they just felt pitching a few more innings in ST'ing was not what he needs right now.

 

I look forward to seeing him get a chance later this season. I always liked him.

[Fisk]

I'm sure he's still going to work on returning to a higher level- just not with the big club in ST'ing. Maybe they just felt pitching a few more innings in ST'ing was not what he needs right now.

 

I look forward to seeing him get a chance later this season. I always liked him.

 

He's pitching in today's game.

[mvp 78]

He has options left- something Abad, Hembree and others do not, and I think management probably feels he needs more time to get to his best.

 

If he truly has recovered, he'll get ample opportunities to show he belongs in the bigs.

 

He'll be up at some point this year for sure.

[Fisk]

Because he is part of the first cuts I have to believe they have major concerns with his stuff. His TJ surgery was almost 2 years ago, sometimes it just doesn't take.

[Nick]

MLBTR ranks next year's possible FA class:

 

1. Jake Arrieta

2. Yu Darvish

3. Johnny Cueto

4. Mashiro Tanaka

5. Jonathan Lucroy

6. JD Martinez

7. Eric Hosmer

8. Justin Upton

9. Carlos Gonzalez

10. Mike Moustakes

"Just misses": C Tillman, T Frazier, M Pineda, C Santana, L Cain & W Davis.

 

good to see Cubbies having to spend money to sign Arrieta. And they are already paying close to $16M for his last arb year.

Edited March 14, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

good to see Cubbies having to spend money to sign Arrieta. And they are already paying close to $16M for his last arb year.

 

I doubt we have much money to sign a big FA next winter with extensions on the near horizon, but if we do, it's nice to see there are some good choices at areas we may have a high need:

 

3B: Moustakes

1B: Hosmer

C: Lucroy

P: the top 4 on the list

[moonslav59]

Because he is part of the first cuts I have to believe they have major concerns with his stuff. His TJ surgery was almost 2 years ago, sometimes it just doesn't take.

 

I don't think it indicates a "Major concern". I think they knew all along, he wasn't going to beat out a pitcher with no options remaining anyways.

 

Maybe they just wanted other pitchers to get the ST'ing innings. I may be wrong, but it seems like less double game dates this spring.

 

Maybe they felt Workman would get better workouts in another environment, and not be thinking about "making the team".

 

[Nick]

I doubt we have much money to sign a big FA next winter with extensions on the near horizon, but if we do, it's nice to see there are some good choices at areas we may have a high need:

 

3B: Moustakes

1B: Hosmer

C: Lucroy

P: the top 4 on the list

 

Hey why not (rhetorical)? I'd go after one the those pitchers...Johnny Cueto?

 

Now that we have a collection of decent starters, it's time to put the foot down and keep it going. Reset the penalty in 2017 and then break the bank until it hurts and build a dynasty.

Edited March 15, 2017 by Nick

[Nick]

Kyle Kendricks....4 scoreless innings. 0 walk, 4 K's. Lowers ERA to 1.59.

 

I think we have our 1st starter off the bench.

 

Sam Travis 2-3 with a homer. The kid can hit. He's way ahead of Devers due to his college experience.

Edited March 15, 2017 by Nick

[cp176]

Kyle Kendricks....4 scoreless innings. 0 walk, 4 K's. Lowers ERA to 1.59.

 

I think we have our 1st starter off the bench.

 

Sam Travis 2-3 with a homer. The kid can hit. He's way ahead of Devers due to his college experience.

 

I agree with you all the way with respect to Travis. He gets a little love but I think less than he deserves. An adequate fielder at first and potentially a really good hitter with quite a bit of pop.

[oldtimer]

I agree with you all the way with respect to Travis. He gets a little love but I think less than he deserves. An adequate fielder at first and potentially a really good hitter with quite a bit of pop.

 

So, could he possibly make the 25 man roster?

[mvp 78]

So, could he possibly make the 25 man roster?

 

Only if Moreland or Hanley are injured in ST.

[cp176]

So, could he possibly make the 25 man roster?

 

He is good enough to be on it but he won't be. If he keeps progressing, he will be the first baseman of the future I think. It is just a numbers game for him right now. I wouldn't be surprised at all to learn that he is good enough to be out there full time right now.

[Fisk]

I doubt we have much money to sign a big FA next winter with extensions on the near horizon, but if we do, it's nice to see there are some good choices at areas we may have a high need:

 

3B: Moustakes

1B: Hosmer

C: Lucroy

P: the top 4 on the list

 

I believe the only contract coming off the books next year is Youngs, I believe they also have a team option on Kimbrel. I'd be very surprised if we sign a premium free agent. My guess they concentrate on extensions. No matter what it would be almost impossible not to go over the luxury tax.

[Fisk]

Kyle Kendricks....4 scoreless innings. 0 walk, 4 K's. Lowers ERA to 1.59.

 

I think we have our 1st starter off the bench.

 

Sam Travis 2-3 with a homer. The kid can hit. He's way ahead of Devers due to his college experience.

 

Kendrick to me is starting to get interesting, hopefully Bannister helped him figure something out.

[Nick]

I believe the only contract coming off the books next year is Youngs, I believe they also have a team option on Kimbrel. I'd be very surprised if we sign a premium free agent. My guess they concentrate on extensions. No matter what it would be almost impossible not to go over the luxury tax.

 

Moreland signed a 1 year deal so his $5.5M will come off. I suspect Travis will be a September call up, unless its sooner.

 

It would be great to pick up the option and deal Kimbrel after the season but that assumes Kelly, Carson Smith, Barnes and Thornburg all pitch exceptionally. Probably not happening.

Edited March 15, 2017 by Nick

[Fisk]

Moreland signed a 1 year deal so his $5.5M will come off. I suspect Travis will be a September call up, unless its sooner.

 

It would be great to pick up the option and deal Kimbrel after the season but that assumes Kelly, Carson Smith, Barnes and Thornburg all pitch exceptionally. Probably not happening.

 

Yep I forgot about Moreland. I agree with you if the rest of our bullpen does good we can reallocate Kimbrels money.

[Emp9]

Yeah it's Moreland, Young, and Abad that come off the books. It also looks like Kimbrel's '18 option is $0.25M less than what he's getting paid now. In the event Kimbrel's option isn't picked-up, that trade would look 1/3 worse than I originally thought. Let's hope he has a good to great season because reallocating his money would seem more counter-productive than anything else at this point.

[Nick]

Thing I never thought about....

 

Red Sox has NOT repeated as Division Champs since 1915/1916 seasons. So after 100 years, we have a chance to match that feat. Pretty unreal if you ask me.

[moonslav59]

Hey why not (rhetorical)? I'd go after one the those pitchers...Johnny Cueto?

 

Now that we have a collection of decent starters, it's time to put the foot down and keep it going. Reset the penalty in 2017 and then break the bank until it hurts and build a dynasty.

 

A few reasons:

 

1) Going over by a certain amount, even if "reset" can cause serious penalties that include loss of picks and/or slot money.

2) Signing any of these guys to a multiple year deal would pretty much guarantee we lose one more of our current players down the road.

3) We might have bigger worries than SP'er next winter.

 

[moonslav59]

I believe the only contract coming off the books next year is Youngs, I believe they also have a team option on Kimbrel. I'd be very surprised if we sign a premium free agent. My guess they concentrate on extensions. No matter what it would be almost impossible not to go over the luxury tax.

 

3 come off the books: Young ($6.5M luxury tax number), Moreland ($5.5M) and Abad ($2.05M).

 

Options:

$13M Kimbrel (up $2.5M from his current luxury tax number)

$12.5M C Sale (up $6M from his current luxury tax number)

 

Assuming we take the options, we aren't left with much spare room, and we haven't even counted arb raises.

 

[mvp 78]

Hanley is traded before the end of the season. Maybe Pablo too if Sox eat enough of the contract.

 

For luxury tax purposes, don't they need to be under the limit for only one year for a full reset?

[Fisk]

Hanley is traded before the end of the season. Maybe Pablo too if Sox eat enough of the contract.

 

For luxury tax purposes, don't they need to be under the limit for only one year for a full reset?

 

Yes they will reset if they stay under this year. Definitely will be going over next year.

[Fisk]

Thing I never thought about....

 

Red Sox has NOT repeated as Division Champs since 1915/1916 seasons. So after 100 years, we have a chance to match that feat. Pretty unreal if you ask me.

 

Amazing it has been that long since we repeated, who would have thought.