A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

Dumb question....why can't Price not miss any turns at start, limiting his innings or pitch count? Hell, pitch 2 innings, pitch 3 innings and so forth and stretch him out?

Or pitch him out of bullpen?

 

I don't think the pen is a good idea, since it lends itself to the desire to over pitch (throw too hard) to get that "big out".

 

I do think holding him out of a few starts might end up being part of the plan, or just limiting his innings until he shows he's strong enough to go more and more.

 

[Fisk]

I don't think the pen is a good idea, since it lends itself to the desire to over pitch (throw too hard) to get that "big out".

 

I do think holding him out of a few starts might end up being part of the plan, or just limiting his innings until he shows he's strong enough to go more and more.

 

 

I'm going to guess they will be extremely cautious with him. To large of an investment.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

Dating back to last summer, the Red Sox have lost high-level prospects like Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech and Anderson Espinoza in trades, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski isn’t ruling out further deals, he told Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald. At the same time, Dombrowski is aware that “you have to quit trading young guys” sometime. With the Red Sox’s collection of “good young players” in the big leagues and the minors, Dombrowski believes the team has the “foundation to be good for a long time.”

 

Here's a list of Sox prospects traded away since last year (highest ranking on soxprospects.com):

 

1 Moncada

3 Espinoza

3 Margot

3 Cecchini

5 Kopech

6 Guerra

7 Basabe

9 Dubon

11 Coyle

12 W Rijo

13 Logan

13 Light

17 Basabe (the other one)

20 Asuaje

21 V Diaz

24 Pennington

30 Wilkerson

40 Almonte

43 Cuevas

Plus vets...

Buchholz

T Shaw

 

 

Edited March 5, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

I'm going to guess they will be extremely cautious with him. To large of an investment.

 

Exactly. They'd probably do the same with even a lesser talented player with several years of team control.

[S5Dewey]

I'm not sure that "excited" is the word I'm looking for but I'm willing to listen. Does that count?

[Kimmi]

MLBTR...

 

Dating back to last summer, the Red Sox have lost high-level prospects like Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech and Anderson Espinoza in trades, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski isn’t ruling out further deals, he told Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald. At the same time, Dombrowski is aware that “you have to quit trading young guys” sometime. With the Red Sox’s collection of “good young players” in the big leagues and the minors, Dombrowski believes the team has the “foundation to be good for a long time.”

 

Dombrowski has already passed that time, IMO.

[Kimmi]

I'm not sure that "excited" is the word I'm looking for but I'm willing to listen. Does that count?

 

That counts!

 

I don't know much about it yet, but I do believe that the data that can be collected with Statcast is going to do for defensive metrics what Pitchf/x did for pitching and catching metrics.

[notin]

MLBTR...

 

Dating back to last summer, the Red Sox have lost high-level prospects like Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech and Anderson Espinoza in trades, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski isn’t ruling out further deals, he told Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald. At the same time, Dombrowski is aware that “you have to quit trading young guys” sometime. With the Red Sox’s collection of “good young players” in the big leagues and the minors, Dombrowski believes the team has the “foundation to be good for a long time.”

 

Here's a list of Sox prospects traded away since last year (highest ranking on soxprospects.com):

 

1 Moncada

3 Anderson

3 Margot

3 Cecchini

5 Kopech

6 Guerra

7 Basabe

9 Dubon

11 Coyle

12 W Rijo

13 Logan

13 Light

17 Basabe (the other one)

20 Asuaje

21 V Diaz

24 Pennington

30 Wilkerson

40 Almonte

43 Cuevas

Plus vets...

Buchholz

T Shaw

 

 

 

Coyle and Cecchini weren't traded.

 

While I do agree Dombrowski has been an aggressive trader, releasing players who haven't kept themselves relevant isn't the same thing...

[moonslav59]

Coyle and Cecchini weren't traded.

 

While I do agree Dombrowski has been an aggressive trader, releasing players who haven't kept themselves relevant isn't the same thing...

 

Cecchini was traded for cash in December 2015. I'm fine with taking him off the list.

 

Yes, Coyle was released. He should not be on the list. Plus, he was DFA'd in the summer of 2015, so he's outside the time range anyways.

[Nick]

Where's Espy?

[Fisk]

He listed him under Anderson

[moonslav59]

He listed him under Anderson

 

Ooops. Went back and edited.

 

Thanks.

[Wade Boggs]

Ooops. Went back and edited.

 

Thanks.

When I saw it. I thought the same thing. I went on google for a check out and thought that was his first name but wasn't a 100% sure. Just looking at that list ,that's a lot of prospects being dealt. The only prospects I agree with them dealing is for Sale. The Kimbrel deal I'm on the fence on. Now with Mr. Thornburg having a dead arm , I am having my doubts about that one as well. But he has had two bad springs before, so I remain cautiously optimistic some what. Just getting back on Kimbrel. I like the player but maybe not the deal of prospects they unloaded for him. But I'll live with it.

[moonslav59]

When I saw it. I thought the same thing. I went on google for a check out and thought that was his first name but wasn't a 100% sure. Just looking at that list ,that's a lot of prospects being dealt. The only prospects I agree with them dealing is for Sale. The Kimbrel deal I'm on the fence on. Now with Mr. Thornburg having a dead arm , I am having my doubts about that one as well. But he has had two bad springs before, so I remain cautiously optimistic some what. Just getting back on Kimbrel. I like the player but maybe not the deal of prospects they unloaded for him. But I'll live with it.

 

You think we could have gotten Quintana for Espinoza, Margot, Guerra, Logan Allen and Asuaje?

[moonslav59]

With Price's health in doubt, I can't help but look at how much luck and/or rotational health seemed to influence our championships.

 

Here's a look at how many starts our top starters got over the years:

 

2003:

29 Pedro

33 DLowe

33 Wake

30 Burkett

14 Fossum/10 Suppan/13 others (4)

 

2004:

33 Pedro

32 Schill

33 Lowe

30 Wake

29 Arroyo

4 others (3)

 

2005:

11 Schill

32 Clement

30 D Wells

32 Arroyo

33 Wake

16 W Miller & 8 others (4)

 

2006:

33 Beckett

31 Schill

12 Clement

8 D Wells

23 Wakefield

15 Lester/10 Snyder/6 DiNardo/6 Tavarez/ 6 J Johnson/ 12 others (4)

 

2007:

30 Beckett

24 Schilling

32 Dice-K

31 Wakefield

11 Lester

23 Tavarez/7 Gabbard/ 4 others (2)

 

2008:

27 Beckett

29 Dice-K

33 Lester

30 Wake

7 B Colon

15 Buch/9 Masterson/8 P Byrd/4 other (3)

 

2009:

32 Beckett

32 Lester

12 Dice-K

24 Penny

16 Buch

21 Wake/8 Smoltz/6 Masterson/6 P Byrd/5 others (2)

 

2010:

21 Beckett

32 Lester

33 Lackey

28 Buch

25 Dice-K

19 Wake/ 4 others (2)

 

2011

31 Lester

30 Beckett

28 Lackey

14 Buch

7 Dice-K

23 Wake/12 A Miller/8 Bedard/9 others (2)

 

2012:

33 Lester

21 Beckett

0 Lackey

11 Dice-K

10 D Bard

29 Buch/ 29 Doubront/18 Cook/9 Morales/2 Stewart

 

2013:

33 Lester

29 Lackey

16 Buch

27 Doubront

29 Dempster

10 Peavy/7 Webster/6 Aceves/5 others (3)

 

2014: (Mid season purge)

21 Lester

21 Lackey

28 Buch

20 Peavy

10 Doubront

15 Workman/ 18 de la Rosa/11 Webster/10 Kelly/7 Ranaudo/1 Wright

 

2015:

28 Porcello

18 Buchholz

32 W Miley

25 J Kelly

9 Masterson

21 ERod/ 11 Owens/9 Wright/9 others (4)

 

2016:

35 Price

33 Porcello

21 Buchholz

20 ERod

6 Kelly

24 Wright/ 13 Pom/ 10 Others (3)

 

It's not a perfect correlation, but our winning years saw many more starts from our top 4-5 starters than our losing years.

 

2004: 158 starts from our top 5 starters.

2007: 117 from our top 4 starters (24+ GS'd from our top 4 starters).

2013: 27 or more starts from 4 of our top 5 starters.

 

 

[notin]

You think we could have gotten Quintana for Espinoza, Margot, Guerra, Logan Allen and Asuaje?

 

Honestly, it's not the given it looks like.

 

You really need a headliner type prospect to get an ace, and Espinoza doesn't seem to be considered one universally. So the entire deal rests on the opinions of Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams about Anderson Espinoza. ...

[notin]

Cecchini was traded for cash in December 2015. I'm fine with taking him off the list.

 

Yes, Coyle was released. He should not be on the list. Plus, he was DFA'd in the summer of 2015, so he's outside the time range anyways.

 

Cecchini was traded after bring DFAd. At that point even getting cash for him was an accomplishment.

 

Not sure why Dombrowski didn't like Cecchini but for some reason kept Brentz. ..

[Wade Boggs]

You think we could have gotten Quintana for Espinoza, Margot, Guerra, Logan Allen and Asuaje?

 

It would have taken a package like the one for Sale. Also given Quintana's extra year of control. I can't speak for anybody else on here.. The deal you offered I would do. The White Sox unlikely.

 

Let's say the deal you offered the other day of Groome, Devers , Travis, for Quintana that might get it done. But I wouldn't do it. They traded enough young players now. Plus they really liked Koepach over Espinoza. That's what the rumors say anyway. It was like Notin said, the headliner of the deal was Moncada and b,c,d for sale. IMO Espinoza might not qualify for that type of deal you are looking for. But these debates are always good for the board IMO. But I understand what you meant.

[Nick]

I think everyone pretty much agrees that it's going to be tough to replenish our farm system under the new set up. Couple that with the fact we should be drafting lower due to our expected success. We may get a surprise or two in lower rounds but more than likely that will be offset by flops in higher rounds.

 

I'm not sure what the hell DD is thinking pronouncing our farm is still in good shape (rated #21 recently). It's not.

 

For us to get anything coming back in a trade we need redundancy at some positions. I don't see that right now at any position. Our starters maybe good but not much depth behind any position except maybe at catching but how much can we get for Sandy or Vazquez? Probably not much.

 

At best, Devers, Travis and Groome will replace open spots in our roster due to FA or lack of production (good news is that they will give us 18 years of team control).

 

DD better find a way to keep current core group together until 2021 when Pedy retires. That's five more years. You start with having five quality starters. Looking back, 2015 starters were pitiful. This is a must, a quality starting rotation.

 

I'm with Kimmi, our farm system is desolate.

Edited March 6, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Honestly, it's not the given it looks like.

 

You really need a headliner type prospect to get an ace, and Espinoza doesn't seem to be considered one universally. So the entire deal rests on the opinions of Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams about Anderson Espinoza. ...

 

We'd probably have to have added Devers or Travis.

[moonslav59]

I think everyone pretty much agrees that it's going to be tough to replenish our farm system under the new set up. Couple that with the fact we should be drafting lower due to our expected success. We may get a surprise or two in lower rounds but more than likely that will be offset by flops in higher rounds.

 

I'm not sure what the hell DD is thinking pronouncing our farm is still in good shape (rated #21 recently). It's not.

 

For us to get anything coming back in a trade we need redundancy at some positions. I don't see that right now at any position. Our starters maybe good but not much depth behind any position except maybe at catching but how much can we get for Sandy or Vazquez? Probably not much.

 

At best, Devers, Travis and Groome will replace open spots in our roster due to FA or lack of production (good news is that they will give us 18 years of team control).

 

DD better find a way to keep current core group together until 2021 when Pedy retires. That's five more years. You start with having five quality starters. Looking back, 2015 starters were pitiful. This is a must, a quality starting rotation.

 

I'm with Kimmi, our farm system is desolate.

 

If we discount Beni, I agree, but Beni is still considered a prospect.

 

The 3 other top prospects all are earmarked to fill our next voids.

 

After that, we are desolate.

 

I think our ranking of 21st is about right, even with Beni counting.

 

Once he becomes a non prospect, we'll probably be 24th or lower.

 

"Good shape" is clearly hyperbole.

[Nick]

Should the Red Sox take a shot on Brett Lawrie? asks Overthemonster article.

Pass. Why do we keep going back to injured players? It's time we figured out what we have with Hernandez and Josh Rutledge.

 

At some point this year, I want to see platoon of Sam Travis at 1B. I'd much prefer natural 1B before Hanley. When you factor in defense, Travis/Moreland combo with Hanley at DH is better than Hanley/Moreland combo with Young at DH.

 

I'd use Young resting our OF and pinch hitting for our catchers. He can always give few days off DH'ing for Hanley.

[notin]

If we discount Beni, I agree, but Beni is still considered a prospect.

 

The 3 other top prospects all are earmarked to fill our next voids.

 

After that, we are desolate.

 

I think our ranking of 21st is about right, even with Beni counting.

 

Once he becomes a non prospect, we'll probably be 24th or lower.

 

"Good shape" is clearly hyperbole.

 

The best aspect of the Sox farm system is that with the starting lineup containing Benintendi, Betts, Bradley, and Bogaerts (and possibly Swihart), that's several positions they hopefully won't need to rely on it to fill for a few seasons.

 

The worst aspect is the dearth of pitching. If Groome doesn't pan out for either effectiveness or injury, who's really the most likely impact pitcher?

 

The Sox farm could be considered terrific, but the best players are already in MLB...

[notin]

Should the Red Sox take a shot on Brett Lawrie? asks Overthemonster article.

Pass. Why do w. Ikeep going back to injured players? It's time we figured out what we have with Hernandez and Josh Rutledge.

 

At some point this year, I want to see platoon of Sam Travis at 1B. I'd much prefer natural 1B before Hanley. When you factor in defense, Travis/Moreland combo with Hanley at DH is better than Hanley/Moreland combo with Young at DH.

 

I'd use Young resting our OF and pinch hitting for our catchers. He can always give few days off DH'ing for Hanley.

 

If Travis winds up as a weak side platoon hitter who is paired with the fairly mediocre Mitch Moreland, he isn't much of a prospect. I'm hoping he can push Moreland to the bench altogether. ..

[Emp9]

Should the Red Sox take a shot on Brett Lawrie? asks Overthemonster article.

Pass. Why do we keep going back to injured players? It's time we figured out what we have with Hernandez and Josh Rutledge.

 

At some point this year, I want to see platoon of Sam Travis at 1B. I'd much prefer natural 1B before Hanley. When you factor in defense, Travis/Moreland combo with Hanley at DH is better than Hanley/Moreland combo with Young at DH.

 

I'd use Young resting our OF and pinch hitting for our catchers. He can always give few days off DH'ing for Hanley.

 

I doubt Travis is THAT much of a defensive upgrade at 1B than Hanley, if any. But yeah, I'm excited to see Travis' progress this year and if Moreland struggles mightily at the plate, to see Travis called up.

[moonslav59]

Should the Red Sox take a shot on Brett Lawrie? asks Overthemonster article.

Pass. Why do we keep going back to injured players? It's time we figured out what we have with Hernandez and Josh Rutledge.

 

At some point this year, I want to see platoon of Sam Travis at 1B. I'd much prefer natural 1B before Hanley. When you factor in defense, Travis/Moreland combo with Hanley at DH is better than Hanley/Moreland combo with Young at DH.

 

I'd use Young resting our OF and pinch hitting for our catchers. He can always give few days off DH'ing for Hanley.

 

Young is our 2nd best hitter vs LHPs (to HanRam). If he's not DH'ing vs LHPs, he has to be playing somewhere every time a lefty starts.

 

If he's not at DH, which OF'er are you going to sit?

 

I can see sitting Beni vs some tough lefties, and JBJ has struggled vs some lefties, but how can anyone suggest a platoon or partial platoon with him?

 

I like Travis and want to see him do well, but he's got a long way to go to prove he's better than Young vs LHPs.

 

Young's .875 OPS vs lefties is the 24th best in MLB among players with 350+ PAs over the last 3 years.

 

His .985 OPS over the last 2 years (250+ PAs) ranks him 5th best in MLB!

 

Sitting him vs lefties is insanity.

 

The guy should bat 3-5 in the line-up vs LHPs.

[Nick]

Has anyone here seen contract #'s for pre-arb players other than $950K for Betts?

[moonslav59]

Has anyone here seen contract #'s for pre-arb players other than $950K for Betts?

 

I think Trout got $1.1M

[moonslav59]

Has anyone here seen contract #'s for pre-arb players other than $950K for Betts?

 

If you meant Sox players, I don't think those numbers have been reported yet. Most will be about $575K.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR....

 

Sandy Leon tells Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that even though he’s been characterized as a lock to make the Red Sox’ Opening Day roster, he’s not assuming anything in Spring Training. Leon, who has been optioned to the minors six times and designated for assignment on multiple occasions in his career, tells Abraham, “I don’t know how to think that way,” adding that nothing should be considered guaranteed. The 28-year-old Leon had the opportunity to play for his native Venezuela or his wife’s native Colombia in the World Baseball Classic but passed on both opportunities to better prepare for the 2017 season with Boston. Leon’s breakout season finished with a prolonged slump, though Abraham notes that Leon played 53 games in Winter Ball before the regular season and was working a starter’s workload for the first time in 2016, which may have caused him to wear down. Leon logged just four Winter Ball games this offseason and figures to start for the BoSox on Opening Day in 2017.