A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Fisk]

3 come off the books: Young ($6.5M luxury tax number), Moreland ($5.5M) and Abad ($2.05M).

 

Options:

$13M Kimbrel (up $2.5M from his current luxury tax number)

$12.5M C Sale (up $6M from his current luxury tax number)

 

Assuming we take the options, we aren't left with much spare room, and we haven't even counted arb raises.

 

 

I'm going to guess next off season will be about extensions and a couple role players.

[S5Dewey]

Hanley is traded before the end of the season. Maybe Pablo too if Sox eat enough of the contract.

 

For luxury tax purposes, don't they need to be under the limit for only one year for a full reset?

 

I don't see Hanley being traded if he can adjust to the DH role. Instead I see Morland's option not being picked up and Sam Travis being the regular 1B. In addition to his offensive numbers he's also got good defensive numbers in the minors.

[Nick]

Our budget is tight and no relief in sight. Edited March 16, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Hanley is traded before the end of the season. Maybe Pablo too if Sox eat enough of the contract.

 

For luxury tax purposes, don't they need to be under the limit for only one year for a full reset?

 

Yes, but there is also a penalty for going $40M or more over the limit, even if you are reset, so yes, we can go over, but within reason..

Edited March 16, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

I don't see Hanley being traded if he can adjust to the DH role. Instead I see Morland's option not being picked up and Sam Travis being the regular 1B. In addition to his offensive numbers he's also got good defensive numbers in the minors.

 

I doubt we trade HanRam, but $22M is a lot to pay for a DH.

 

Even Papi never made that.

[Nick]

I doubt we trade HanRam, but $22M is a lot to pay for a DH.

 

Even Papi never made that.

 

20% tax on AAV over $197M in 2018. 32% tax on AAV over $217M. Plus team's 3rd and 5th highest draft picks in addition to loss of $1M on International Bonus Pool.

[moonslav59]

Our budget is tight and no relief in sight.

 

The only relief comes when we drop Pablo and HanRam, most likely after the 2018 season. However, with extensions pending, and Sale coming off the books and needing to be re-signed or replaced, we'll be "tight" even still.

 

We really need at least 2 of these guys to give us great production at a low cost, so we can spend elsewhere:

 

Devers

Travis

Groome

 

If we can replace Pablo with devers, HanRam with Travis and Pomeranz with Groome, without losing much production, we might be able to squeak by and keep all our major pieces without going $40M over any year and without going 3 or 4 straight years over the limit (assuming we reset this season).

[Nick]

The only relief comes when we drop Pablo and HanRam, most likely after the 2018 season. However, with extensions pending, and Sale coming off the books and needing to be re-signed or replaced, we'll be "tight" even still.

 

We really need at least 2 of these guys to give us great production at a low cost, so we can spend elsewhere:

 

Devers

Travis

Groome

 

If we can replace Pablo with devers, HanRam with Travis and Pomeranz with Groome, without losing much production, we might be able to squeak by and keep all our major pieces without going $40M over any year and without going 3 or 4 straight years over the limit (assuming we reset this season).

 

Assuming Pom returns to first half performance from last year, I think DD will do what he can to retain him. He did give up Espy for him.

 

More likely scenario is for Groome to replace either Sale or Porcello. It's highly unlikely that we sign both as their contracts end at same time.

[notin]

Thing I never thought about....

 

Red Sox has NOT repeated as Division Champs since 1915/1916 seasons. So after 100 years, we have a chance to match that feat. Pretty unreal if you ask me.

 

Slightly misleading in that there were no divisions before 1969, so for the first 54 years of that streak it was pennant or nothing. What this really means is the Sox have NEVER repeated as division champs. ..

[notin]

Assuming Pom returns to first half performance from last year, I think DD will do what he can to retain him. He did give up Espy for him.

 

More likely scenario is for Groome to replace either Sale or Porcello. It's highly unlikely that we sign both as their contracts end at same time.

 

Although the Sox might have the money to resign both if Price opts out after next season.

 

Groome pitched in high school last year. I think it might be best to at least wait until he reaches AA before he gets penciled in to replace the Cy Young caliber pitchers. ..

Edited March 16, 2017 by notin

[notin]

I doubt we trade HanRam, but $22M is a lot to pay for a DH.

 

Even Papi never made that.

 

Nobody is taking Hanley out Sandoval off their hands. Period.

 

The only way Sandoval doesn't finish his deal with the Sox is if he retires from baseball early to eat full time. ...

[Nick]

Although the Sox might have the money to resign both if Price opts out after next season. ...

 

I understand the idea of wanting comparative balance by having the luxury tax, But...

 

Part of appeal for the fans is to follow young players in your organization. Someone such as Xander and Betts.

 

I suggest MLB in next CB, place a hard cap on AAV for a 'home grown talent" at say $25M. Thus if Betts receives a 10 year, $300M contract, Sox would only count $25M for the purpose of luxury tax. Each team should be 'rewarded' for developing players in their farm system.

 

You can tie in the hard cap with let's say a percentage of top 5 multiple years contracts in the league. But once the hard cap is established for a player, that amount does not move in subsequent years when the top 5 pay in the league would steadily move up.

 

For the definition of 'home grown' talent, you can tie it to Rookie of Year qualifiers. Suppose Beni was drafted by the Yankees. But he will qualify for the Rookie of the Year balloting as a Red Sox, so he's eligible for hard cap only as a Sox and not the Yankees.

 

Ok, March Madness starts in couple of hours.

Edited March 16, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Assuming Pom returns to first half performance from last year, I think DD will do what he can to retain him. He did give up Espy for him.

 

More likely scenario is for Groome to replace either Sale or Porcello. It's highly unlikely that we sign both as their contracts end at same time.

 

I mentioned replacing Pom, because his and Sale's contracts are the first to expire. Assuming good health and no radical declines, I think we'll try to keep Sale.

 

Maybe GRoome will not be ready until the following year, when Porcello's deal expires. I do think he may replace Porcello instead, due to his age. Eitherway, having Groome become good enough to replace Pom or Porcello without a big drop off would go a long way towards helping us keep everyone else we want to keep.

[mvp 78]

I don't see Hanley being traded if he can adjust to the DH role. Instead I see Morland's option not being picked up and Sam Travis being the regular 1B. In addition to his offensive numbers he's also got good defensive numbers in the minors.

 

I think Hanley is moved and next offseason Shaw is anointed 1b and they sign a cheap DH.

[mvp 78]

Nobody is taking Hanley out Sandoval off their hands. Period.

 

The only way Sandoval doesn't finish his deal with the Sox is if he retires from baseball early to eat full time. ...

 

With a resurgent 2017, he could be an attractive piece at the trade deadline if the Sox eat some salary.

[mvp 78]

I mentioned replacing Pom, because his and Sale's contracts are the first to expire. Assuming good health and no radical declines, I think we'll try to keep Sale.

 

Maybe GRoome will not be ready until the following year, when Porcello's deal expires. I do think he may replace Porcello instead, due to his age. Eitherway, having Groome become good enough to replace Pom or Porcello without a big drop off would go a long way towards helping us keep everyone else we want to keep.

 

Sox Prospects has his ETA at 2020. Even then, I doubt he'd start off with top of the rotation stuff. He's a lottery ticket right now. Can't pencil him for anything yet.

[moonslav59]

Sox Prospects has his ETA at 2020. Even then, I doubt he'd start off with top of the rotation stuff. He's a lottery ticket right now. Can't pencil him for anything yet.

 

Agreed, 2019 is too early to expect Groome to start and do very well.

 

We have 6 starters. If we keep 5 and hope Groome can ease his way into a starter role by 2020, we won't need to spend big on keeping all 6 or finding a replacement for Pom or Porcello (assuming we chose to keep Sale and one from pom/Porcello).

[moonslav59]

With a resurgent 2017, he could be an attractive piece at the trade deadline if the Sox eat some salary.

 

If we are in a race for a ring, which we should be, I can't see us trading Pablo or HanRam at the deadline. Even if Travis and Moreland are doing well, I doubt we decide to go with Holt-Rutledge-Hernandez at 3B and rely on a continuance of good play from Travis-Moreland-Young at 1B-DH.

 

I could maybe see us trading Moreland, if Travis is doing very well.

 

If we trade HanRam, we'd have to replace him, in kind, at a lower cost to make it worthwhile.

 

If Pablo gets off to a good start and ends up having some trade value or even a lot of trade value, who plays 3B after trading him away?

[mvp 78]

If we are in a race for a ring, which we should be, I can't see us trading Pablo or HanRam at the deadline.

 

All I'm saying is there's a chance they we are out of the race. Price may not pitch. Pom could flame out. I could see the Sox be at .500 near the AS Break even if Hanley and Pablo are playing well. If that happens, I wouldn't be surprised if Farrell was shown the door and the Sox looked to trim payroll.

[moonslav59]

All I'm saying is there's a chance they we are out of the race. Price may not pitch. Pom could flame out. I could see the Sox be at .500 near the AS Break even if Hanley and Pablo are playing well. If that happens, I wouldn't be surprised if Farrell was shown the door and the Sox looked to trim payroll.

 

I think we'd have to be almost 10 games out to dump salary. Even without Price or Pom, I doubt that happens.

 

I will say, in years past, when we look the very best on paper in spring is when we seem to fall the shortest on expectations.

[moonslav59]

Will this be the opening day 25 man roster?

 

DL: Price, Thornburg & C Smith

 

SP: Sale, Porcello, ERod, Wright & Pom

RP: Kimbrel, Kelly, Ross, Barnes, Hembree, Abad, Scott

C: Leon & Vazquez

1B: Moreland & HanRam (DH)

2B: Pedey & Holt

3B: Pablo & Rutledge

SS: Bogey

LF: Beni & Young (DH)

CF: JBJ

RF: Betts

 

Should get an opportunity:

C: Swihart

1B: Travis

2B/SS/3B: Hernandez

OF: Selsky

SP: Kendrick (maybe Elias)

RP: Martin, Workman, Ysla, (maybe Ramirez and Olmos)

 

Others: Castillo, Craig, Marrero, Dominguez, Butler, Witte, Lake, Owens, Johnson, Velazquez, Haviland

 

[mvp 78]

I'd swap Rutledge and Hernandez. I think Abad will probably be gone at some point this year too.

[moonslav59]

I'd swap Rutledge and Hernandez. I think Abad will probably be gone at some point this year too.

 

I'm a big fan of Hernandez and like him better than Rutledge too, but Hernandez has options, and Rutledge might be a better hitter vs LHPs... something we might need to cover Pablo's biggest weakness.

[moonslav59]

I'd swap Rutledge and Hernandez. I think Abad will probably be gone at some point this year too.

 

I wouldn't have paid Abad $2M in the first place.

[Slasher9]

if Price opts out after next season.

 

..

there is absolutely ZERO percent chance of this happening.

[Nick]

Moon, Pom becomes FA before Porcello and Sale. Sale has two club option years, meaning we'll have him 2017 through 2019. Pom becomes a FA in 2018.

 

Groome has three years in the minors to develop before he's needed. I don't think ETA of 2020 is unreasonable.

[mvp 78]

there is absolutely ZERO percent chance of this happening.

 

Who opts out of a contract after coming off of Tommy John Surgery, honestly?

[moonslav59]

Moon, Pom becomes FA before Porcello and Sale. Sale has two club option years, meaning we'll have him 2017 through 2019. Pom becomes a FA in 2018.

 

Groome has three years in the minors to develop before he's needed. I don't think ETA of 2020 is unreasonable.

 

Yes, you are right. I could see us trying to keep everyone except Pom & Porcello. I'm not saying we can expect Groome to be ready to fill either of their slots. I'm just saying it would be great if two out ofDevers, Travis & Groome come through enough to not need to replace 3 big contracts.

[Nick]

Yes, you are right. I could see us trying to keep everyone except Pom & Porcello. I'm not saying we can expect Groome to be ready to fill either of their slots. I'm just saying it would be great if two out ofDevers, Travis & Groome come through enough to not need to replace 3 big contracts.

 

In retrospect, we did not need BOTH Hanley and Pablo. I think you've been on record saying that. Obviously as of now, Hanley has worked out better. Also I know that we needed to do it, but $31M on Price was also steep. $50M spent on two of those three players will hamstring us for awhile.

 

I feel like a college basketball coach. I'm depending on a 18 year old pitcher to come through to make my like more enjoyable because we traded away the farm.

[cp176]

I'd swap Rutledge and Hernandez. I think Abad will probably be gone at some point this year too.

 

It kind of looks like Hernandez might be one of the odd guys out. If he is, I will feel very bad for this kid. He is good enough to start for any number of teams at either second or short. I get all of that ******** about his options too but that will never enter in to any philosophy that I have about athletics. Your team should consist of the best players available. I truly believe that he is better than Rutledge(no I would not care if he had to be returned to colorado)and I actually believe that in terms of playing second or short, he is a solid upgrade over Holt. He really does deserve a chance. i wish that they would trade him!