A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[a700hitter]

I really have no clue.

I fixed it for you. I couldn't resist.

[cp176]

It's not play money. Despite what some people think, the Sox do not have an unlimited budget.

 

You get to think what you want - I appreciate that. I bet that we all have some sort of budget.

[Emp9]

Yeah, I have to agree. We have 3 more years of Bogey left, if we don't trade him.

 

If Beni comes close to what I think he'll be, losing XB to FA or trading him beforehand and acquiring a defensive centered SS might not be the end of the world. Additionally, and ideally, I'd like to see Devers graduated and contributing before any decision on XB is made. I've always seen XB as the player ( out of XB, Betts, & JBJ ) most likely to go anyways. Both XB and JBJ have a lot to prove to me as far as consistency goes (Betts not so much) and again whether XB will develop more power is still a ongoing question mark. For me, extending Betts is the priority in the near future ( I've thought this even before his MVP-2 season last year ). As far as what players SAY they're comfortable with, regarding both XB's and Betts' comments on contract extensions and being content with going year to year, it's a whole 'nother ballgame when digits and dollar signs are passed across the table. We won't know how they really feel until that day comes.

[Emp9]

That's the point. Why would you do the same thing? It's illogical. You need a point that your use of a sample should back up.Everyone knows EE's story. He was a terrible defensive 3B and a meh hitter who broke out after reaching the Blue Jays and being moved off the position. Shouldn't the "current" EE be the basis of comparison against Hanley? Also, stop being such a massive homer. Encarnacion is clearly an overall better player than Hanley right now. I love Hanley, but it is what it is.

 

Your so-called point doesn't make sense. A whole career isn't a f***ing sample size. It's not a slice of pie, it's the whole f***ing pie. Really, I have to explain to you what a sample is?

[User Name]

Your so-called point doesn't make sense. A whole career isn't a f***ing sample size. It's not a slice of pie, it's the whole f***ing pie. Really, I have to explain to you what a sample is?

 

You clearly don't understand what a sample actually is. A whole career, half a career, a month, two games, anything can be a sample depending on context, which was my point.

[Dojji]

This year's team is a contender either way. Sale is nice to have, but he was not a need. What happens in the playoffs is mostly a crapshoot.

 

That's wrong. What happens in the playoffs comes down to talent and performance in a small sample size. The only difference between the playoffs and the regular season is that in the playoffs, you can't count on things to average out. That's all the more reason not to lean on just-enough-to-get-there levels of talent and try to build the best playoff roster you can!

 

We did not win ANY of our World Series rings by doing anything less than the absolute best we could to build the major league roster within the money and talent this team had available to do so. Anything less than 100% effort to win World Series rings when the team is this young, this deep, and this talented, would be incompetent negligence on the part of the front office. And the fans would be absolutely right to call the kind of timid half-measures we'd been experiencing since 2013 as the unacceptable BS they are.

 

The team is built to win now, you can't win now when half your head is focusing on the next 5 years, the time for that crap is in the past or the future, right now it's time for eyes-on-the-prize.

 

I am thrilled with the team that we have, but I will never agree with Dombrowski depleting our farm system, especially since he didn't build it. I am strongly against the 'win now at any cost' philosophy.

 

That's limited thinking. There will always be a time to put the hammer down and win with what you have. Just like there will always be a time to ease off on the gas and let the farm system recuperate. Not recognizing that there is a time to build and a time to destroy is a weakness in a GM. There will never be one strategy that is perfect for all situations, there will always be a need for situational adjustments.

 

And there will always be a time to compare where you are with where you want to be and decide how best to get there. Right now where we want to be, is our players in their locker room taking champagne showers. DD has made the right moves to try and get us there. if it doesn't work, it was still exactly, EXACTLY the right thing to try and I will stand by that.

 

This is the Boston Red Sox. We do not need to screw around trying to have it both ways with an opportunity this brilliantly golden in our hands just waiting for us to take advantage of it. We did not get the championships we have by disdaining opportunities to improve our chances to win this year, and we're not going to start now. Theo absolutely would have pulled the trigger on the Sale trade in exactly the same situation DD did, we know that because he DID that, with Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling among others I'm probably forgetting.

 

Theo knows how to go for it. He did it in 03 and 04 despite knowing we'd pay for it in 05 and 06, did it again in 2007 knowing there'd be consequences in 09 and 10, and he's doing it with the Cubs right now. A few less-than-peak years down the road is worth taking a golden opportunity and Theo is smart enough to see this. His protegee did the same thing in 2013, or at least tried to, when it was clear that the team was putting something special together. Now his protegee's replacement did it and it's somehow unprecedented and strange? Not buying it for one microsecond.

Edited February 6, 2017 by Dojji

[Spudboy]

You clearly don't understand what a sample actually is. A whole career, half a career, a month, two games, anything can be a sample depending on context, which was my point.

 

I just made some coffee and am now prepared for you to subdue everyone with that massive education of yours.

 

Go get 'em Champ.

[mvp 78]

I just made some coffee and am now prepared for you to subdue everyone with that Big League education of yours.

 

Go get 'em Champ.

 

Fixed.

[oldtimer]

That's wrong.

 

 

 

That's limited thinking. There will always be a time to put the hammer down and win with what you have. Just like there will always be a time to ease off on the gas and let the farm system recuperate. Not recognizing that there is a time to build and a time to destroy is a weakness in a GM. There will never be one strategy that is perfect for all situations, there will always be a need for situational adjustments.

 

 

 

 

 

Sounds like you got that from Ecclesiastes 3. A time for every purpose under heaven. To me the move represented taking a major risk in Sale. He is very talented but may prove fragile. Is the risk worth the amount of resources it took. That remains to be seen but the FO decided to go that way and that is what we will see over the next season.

 

Talent is great to have, but also needed is cohesiveness and that is developed by having a manager who can get the best out of his club. I hope we have that going forward. Francona was that, is Farrell?

[Dojji]

Actually I was thinking more of that one song, but I know that song tracks directly back to Ecclesiastes.

 

Either way, the point is valid. A time for everything and everything in its time. Load up when it's time to load up, rebuild when it's time to rebuild, don't rebuild when it's time to load up or load up when it's time to rebuild. Determining which is which is something like 99% of a GM's job, trying to do both at the same time and sustain it indefinitely is a fan wet dream and is never going to happen for more than a few years at a time.

 

I get the desire to try to have both a good farm system and a big league roster that's primed to complete but generally speaking a franchise is doing well to get one of the two, much less try for both, it's a crazy alchemy that requires luck as a major ingredient so never happens for more than a decade at a time. Generally, to crib from the Bible again, teams that try to be hot and cold at the same time just wind up lukewarm, with strengths in both areas but not enough of them to get anything real done, exhibit A probably being the Mariners in recent years. I don't really want to see this franchise become the Mariners, and I suspect I'm not alone in this.

 

Ironically. Kimmi's much-loved Cherington actually managed to commit both errors over a very short tenure with the team, which is actually an amazing feat. He dialed back after 2013 when we still had a core worth competing with, then tried to ramp up prematurely in 2015. His inability to accurately call the shots in those 2 seasons are what took him from a ring winner to unemployed. There is no job more important for a GM to do than determining when it is time to do what, and Cherington failed spectacularly in that area.

Edited February 6, 2017 by Dojji

[Kimmi]

I fixed it for you. I couldn't resist.

 

Ha.

[Kimmi]

That's wrong. What happens in the playoffs comes down to talent and performance in a small sample size. The only difference between the playoffs and the regular season is that in the playoffs, you can't count on things to average out. That's all the more reason not to lean on just-enough-to-get-there levels of talent and try to build the best playoff roster you can!

 

We did not win ANY of our World Series rings by doing anything less than the absolute best we could to build the major league roster within the money and talent this team had available to do so. Anything less than 100% effort to win World Series rings when the team is this young, this deep, and this talented, would be incompetent negligence on the part of the front office. And the fans would be absolutely right to call the kind of timid half-measures we'd been experiencing since 2013 as the unacceptable BS they are.

 

The team is built to win now, you can't win now when half your head is focusing on the next 5 years, the time for that crap is in the past or the future, right now it's time for eyes-on-the-prize.

 

No Dojji, you are wrong about what happens in the playoffs. The shorter the series, the smaller the sample, the more randomness plays a role, and the less skill and talent play a role. Your idea that randomness plays a larger role in bigger sample sizes is flat out wrong.

 

Planning for the long and short terms is not playing it half way. You do not have to mortgage everything else in an attempt to win now. It is possible to do both. 2013 is Exhibit A.

[Kimmi]

Theo knows how to go for it. He did it in 03 and 04 despite knowing we'd pay for it in 05 and 06, did it again in 2007 knowing there'd be consequences in 09 and 10, and he's doing it with the Cubs right now. A few less-than-peak years down the road is worth taking a golden opportunity and Theo is smart enough to see this. His protegee did the same thing in 2013, or at least tried to, when it was clear that the team was putting something special together. Now his protegee's replacement did it and it's somehow unprecedented and strange? Not buying it for one microsecond.

 

Theo absolutely knows how to go for it. He went for it without mortgaging the farm or the long term outlook of any of his teams.

 

There is no comparison to what Theo did with the Sox or with the Cubs to what Dombrowski it doing. There is also no comparison to what Ben did in 2013 to what Dombrowski is doing.

[Kimmi]

Sounds like you got that from Ecclesiastes 3. A time for every purpose under heaven. To me the move represented taking a major risk in Sale. He is very talented but may prove fragile. Is the risk worth the amount of resources it took. That remains to be seen but the FO decided to go that way and that is what we will see over the next season.

 

Talent is great to have, but also needed is cohesiveness and that is developed by having a manager who can get the best out of his club. I hope we have that going forward. Francona was that, is Farrell?

 

As I have said before, if we win a championship in the next 3 years, then it will all have been worth it.

 

That said, I am thinking that if we do win a championship in the next 3 years, there is a pretty good chance that we could have won one without depleting the farm.

[Kimmi]

Ironically. Kimmi's much-loved Cherington actually managed to commit both errors over a very short tenure with the team, which is actually an amazing feat. He dialed back after 2013 when we still had a core worth competing with, then tried to ramp up prematurely in 2015. His inability to accurately call the shots in those 2 seasons are what took him from a ring winner to unemployed. There is no job more important for a GM to do than determining when it is time to do what, and Cherington failed spectacularly in that area.

 

I 100% disagree with your perception here.

[Fisk]

Theo absolutely knows how to go for it. He went for it without mortgaging the farm or the long term outlook of any of his teams.

 

There is no comparison to what Theo did with the Sox or with the Cubs to what Dombrowski it doing. There is also no comparison to what Ben did in 2013 to what Dombrowski is doing.

 

I'm a big Theo fan but have to disagree with you here.. With very little on the farm he trade Jusin Masterson, and Nick Hagadone(a 1st round pick) in a deal for Vitor Martinez in 2009. In December 2010 with a pretty depleted farm he traded Rizzo, Casey Kelly ( at the time our number 1 prospect ) and Fuentes ( our number 1 pick in 09 ) for Adrian Gonzalez, and then signed Carl Crawford, which left us with no money to spend and nothing on the farm. This past season with the Cubs for half a season of Chapman he gave a bigger package then we did for Kimbrel. This offseason he traded SOLER FOR WADE DAVIS. Giving up a very promising hitter for a reliever with forearm problems. What allowed Theo to do this was his young core, which is similar to ours.

[Kimmi]

I'm a big Theo fan but have to disagree with you here.. With very little on the farm he trade Jusin Masterson, and Nick Hagadone(a 1st round pick) in a deal for Vitor Martinez in 2009. In December 2010 with a pretty depleted farm he traded Rizzo, Casey Kelly ( at the time our number 1 prospect ) and Fuentes ( our number 1 pick in 09 ) for Adrian Gonzalez, and then signed Carl Crawford, which left us with no money to spend and nothing on the farm. This past season with the Cubs for half a season of Chapman he gave a bigger package then we did for Kimbrel. This offseason he traded SOLER FOR WADE DAVIS. Giving up a very promising hitter for a reliever with forearm problems. What allowed Theo to do this was his young core, which is similar to ours.

 

It's not about individual moves.

 

Despite who Theo traded away, and he did give up a lot or Chapman, the Cubs are set up for the foreseeable future. Their future has not been jeopardized by whatever moves Theo made.

 

The Red Sox put what should have been contending teams every year during Theo's reign, and that carried into Ben's reign.

[Fisk]

It's not about individual moves.

 

Despite who Theo traded away, and he did give up a lot or Chapman, the Cubs are set up for the foreseeable future. Their future has not been jeopardized by whatever moves Theo made.

e Red Sox put what should have been contending teams every year during Theo's reign, and that carried into Ben's reign.

 

Theo left them in terrible shape after 11. The sox young core consists of Betts, Boegarts, Bradley, Benindenti, Swihart, Vazquez, And Erod. With Devers and Groome still top 20 prospects. The Cubs young core is Rizzo, Bryant, Scwarber, Baez, Russell and Contreras. They have Jiminez left as a top 20 prospect and pretty much no young pitching. Find the 2 scenarios to be very similar except we have more young pitching.

[Fisk]

Keith law actually has our system rated higher then the Cubs.

[Nick]

Keith law actually has our system rated higher then the Cubs.

 

Don't speak ill of our wonder boy Theo....he never made a mistake.

[Fisk]

Don't speak ill of our wonder boy Theo....he never made a mistake.

 

Like Theo but he made quite a few mistakes.

[moonslav59]

Theo, himself, admitted he got away from the philosophy he believed in.

 

I was sad to see him go, but after the Nomar Trade, he wasn't really all that great.

[Bellhorn04]

Theo, himself, admitted he got away from the philosophy he believed in.

 

I was sad to see him go, but after the Nomar Trade, he wasn't really all that great.

 

The team's record suggests otherwise. I believe the team's record is the ultimate measure of a GM's performance.

[moonslav59]

The team's record suggests otherwise. I believe the team's record is the ultimate measure of a GM's performance.

 

Some of the deals Theo made up to and including the Nomar trade helped us keep winning beyond that marker I stated.

 

Clearly his moves made after the Nomar trade paled compared to the ones made prior to the trades.

 

He made some great draft picks after the trade, but some of those were as a result of the Nomar trade and players departing to free agency that were acquired before the Nomar trade. For example, we got Ellsbury and Lowrie for OCab's comp picks. (We later got Kopech for Ellsbury leaving.)

 

Plus, I said "wasn't really all that great" not that he was bad or even not good.

 

The team was in some turmoil when he left. He admitted it himself.

 

By the way, team wins per year:

2003-2005: 96

2006-2011: 92

 

2003-2004: 96.5

2005-2011: 92.2

[Bellhorn04]

A 92.2 average is still pretty good.

[moonslav59]

A 92.2 average is still pretty good.

 

Yes, but maybe "not all that great", right?

[User Name]

Are you serious?

[moonslav59]

Are you serious?

 

Yes. It's not like "not all that great" means bad or not good.

 

I take it to mean very good to almost great or partially great, but not ALL that great.

 

Maybe we're just arguing semantics, but Theo did much better with his deals up to Nomar than after, and the team he left Ben was not close to the team we had up to and just after the Nomar trade.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox Sign Mike Olt

By Connor Byrne | February 7, 2017 at 9:21am CDT

 

The Red Sox have signed corner infielder Mike Olt, who announced the news on Instagram (h/t Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). It’s presumably a minor league deal for Olt, who didn’t crack the majors in 2016 after inking a minors pact with the Padres last March.

 

-MLBTR

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

[moonslav59]

I think we'll sign a SP'er and OF'er to minor league deals at some point.