A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[cp176]

I don't disagree, but I think it was more than just resetting the tax. It was about our finances beyond next year. We are looking at being seriously squeezed when it comes to keeping our best young talent once they reach the end of their team control years. Yes, the tax factors into our finances beyond 2018, but I think we may not have signed EE even if we could have rest the tax this winter due to the effect it might have had on future signings and extensions being restricted.

 

I would not argue that the Sox were giving some thought to the luxury tax threshold during this off season but I would be willing to bet that there is something other than age and cost that kept them from signing EE this winter. It's possible that he just isn't the type of player they were interested in for some other reasons and not simply $. In the end, it still looks like play money to me. What they want they are going to get.

[Nick]

At a guess? Most of them. Xander is a premium product. There's only one player on this roster I would rather lock down than Bogaerts, and that's Sale. That may be a bit irrational of me, but IMHO, Betts has peaked, and Bogaerts has not, and Bogaerts is already providing high level production at one of the hardest positions in the league to find such. It would be a lot easier to find a RF to replace half of Betts' production than to find an SS on the market that could replace half of Bogaerts'

 

Power hitting shortstops with no major holes in their game aren't easy to come by. Bogaerts earned his place in the All Star Team last year has every chance to break out and become a superstar this year, I wouldn't put huge money on Betts outperforming him by the end of the season.

 

All Bogaerts really needs to do to become a superstud is stay out of the big slumps. If he can improve his approach at the plate and stop digging himself into trouble, or at least start digging himself out of it faster, the sky's the limit. Not anxious to move a guy like that, especially with no other premium SS talent in the high minors.

 

Our SS depth is better than our OF depth. Have you seen what we have in OF? Betts has peaked? What about Xander's 2nd half performance? He was pretty much mediocre the last couple of months. I will take Betts over Xander every day. At best, he's still just an average defensive SS.

 

I will take Betts/Hernandez combo over YOUR Xander/sox outfiled prospect.

[moonslav59]

At a guess? Most of them.

 

Well, some teams would not give up top prospects for him just on principle.

 

Others may not want to give up a lot and also have to pay his last two arb contracts, which will be significant.

 

Others may be lookinng at a 3 to 5 year plan- not a 2 year plan. Those looking to win in 2 years probably already have a very good to great SS.

 

Others may not need a SS that badly.

 

Others may feel his defensive issues reduce his value by too much to warrant giving away top prospects.

 

Xander is a premium product. There's only one player on this roster I would rather lock down than Bogaerts, and that's Sale. That may be a bit irrational of me, but IMHO, Betts has peaked, and Bogaerts has not, and Bogaerts is already providing high level production at one of the hardest positions in the league to find such. It would be a lot easier to find a RF to replace half of Betts' production than to find an SS on the market that could replace half of Bogaerts'

 

I doubt Bogey ever reaches Betts' peak. They are both the same age, so I'm not sure why you think Betts is done improving but not Bogey.

 

Betts has improved on defense: Bogey took a step backwards in 2016. While SS defense has more value than RF defense, you have to be a plus on defense to gain on the superior defense by Betts.

 

I'd go this way:

1) Betts

2) Sale

3) Bogey-JBJ

 

Power hitting shortstops with no major holes in their game aren't easy to come by. Bogaerts earned his place in the All Star Team last year has every chance to break out and become a superstar this year, I wouldn't put huge money on Betts outperforming him by the end of the season.

 

I would, if I were a betting man.

 

All Bogaerts really needs to do to become a superstud is stay out of the big slumps. If he can improve his approach at the plate and stop digging himself into trouble, or at least start digging himself out of it faster, the sky's the limit. Not anxious to move a guy like that, especially with no other premium SS talent in the high minors.

 

He needs to improve his defense to get close to Betts. He is very far away right now.

 

Bogey will be probably more expensive than his value as compared to Betts due to his agent and position. Just my opinion on this point.

[moonslav59]

It's way early to speculate, but my guess as of now is we let Porcello go and maybe even lose Bogey to free agency. Moon

 

Bingo......call me crazy but I have Xander below Betts, Sale, Bradley Jr and Porcello. I also think Borass will ask for the moon.

 

Porcello will be at the end of prime when his time is up. Bogey will be near the start of prime when his control years are done.

[moonslav59]

I agree that the FO is also trying to avoid long term contracts, if possible, in order to have more financial flexibility for when our youngsters become free agents. Resetting the tax penalty is a big part of gaining that flexibility. That said, I think there's a good chance Dombrowski would have signed Encarnacion if he weren't given the directive to get under the luxury tax this year.

 

I disagree. Even if the luxury tax rest was not a high priority, long term financial viability is always a priority.

 

While one could look and see that EE to a three year deal would mean his contract ends at just "the right time" to be able to keep our big guns, I think our best way to keep all of our stars or all b ut one will be to extend some of them before we reach year 3. If we do so, the budget would get so high, assuming we also have EE, we'd getting close to the massive penalties enforced by going $20M over the limit.

[Kimmi]

How do you figure?

 

One of the goals of having a strong farm is to have young, cost controlled players ready to step in when other guys leave for free agency. If you have several cost controlled guys on the team, you obviously have more money to spend on free agents.

[moonslav59]

How do you figure?

 

I don't mean to speak for Kimmi, but I'd say not having a strong farm to infuse the team with low cost role players or secondary level players will force us to fill those roles via free agency, where just average players cost a lot. Those dollars add up to a point where it might restrict how much we can spend on big names.

 

Right now, we have the following talent at near min cost. Will we have a similar set-up 3-7 years from now?

 

Betts

ERod

Beni

Wright

Smith

Vazquez-Leon-Swihart

Barnes

Hembree

 

Plus, having recent prospect grads like Bogey + JBJ for just over $8M is something we may not see 2-4 years from now with Betts + ERod or Beni.

 

[Kimmi]

I would not argue that the Sox were giving some thought to the luxury tax threshold during this off season but I would be willing to bet that there is something other than age and cost that kept them from signing EE this winter. It's possible that he just isn't the type of player they were interested in for some other reasons and not simply $. In the end, it still looks like play money to me. What they want they are going to get.

 

It's not play money. Despite what some people think, the Sox do not have an unlimited budget.

[moonslav59]

I would not argue that the Sox were giving some thought to the luxury tax threshold during this off season but I would be willing to bet that there is something other than age and cost that kept them from signing EE this winter. It's possible that he just isn't the type of player they were interested in for some other reasons and not simply $. In the end, it still looks like play money to me. What they want they are going to get.

 

That certainly could have been part of the equation. As it turned out, he only got paid $14.5M more than Moreland, so other factors (including defense) were probably involved. One consideration would be who plays at NL parks? We'd have to sit EE or HanRam.

[moonslav59]

One of the goals of having a strong farm is to have young, cost controlled players ready to step in when other guys leave for free agency. If you have several cost controlled guys on the team, you obviously have more money to spend on free agents.

 

You said it better than I.

[jacksonianmarch]

Houston, you guys will have a problem. Bogaerts has come out and said he is completely content going year to year. He's at $4.5 mil for year 4 of team control. By year 6, he'll be over $20 mil. For 2018, he's likely to be around $10 mil. While $10 mil for his production certainly is a bargain, it's still not cheap. 2017 is your last year of cheap production from Xander. Also, because he's gonna go year to year, you're not going to see a discount ever for his services. Based on his comments, Bogey is your most likely to leave via FA. If he peaks as a .300 20HR SS capable of sticking at his position and hitting FA before his year 27 season, you're looking at Robinson Cano money plus plus due to inflation. I see Xander as the most likely player to exit the sox based solely on his interest in going Year to year and based on the fact that someone will overpay to make him the face of their franchise

[jacksonianmarch]

The one guy I'm surprised hasn't signed a long term extension is Bradley. They guy has had his ups and downs, but has roared back with great production for 2 season. He's going to hit FA at an older age than the other guys. I'd have pegged him as a guy to sign a 5 year deal in the $60 mil range to ensure a big payday and not succumb to the hot or cold nature of his production

[Bellhorn04]

Houston, you guys will have a problem. Bogaerts has come out and said he is completely content going year to year. He's at $4.5 mil for year 4 of team control. By year 6, he'll be over $20 mil. For 2018, he's likely to be around $10 mil. While $10 mil for his production certainly is a bargain, it's still not cheap. 2017 is your last year of cheap production from Xander. Also, because he's gonna go year to year, you're not going to see a discount ever for his services. Based on his comments, Bogey is your most likely to leave via FA. If he peaks as a .300 20HR SS capable of sticking at his position and hitting FA before his year 27 season, you're looking at Robinson Cano money plus plus due to inflation. I see Xander as the most likely player to exit the sox based solely on his interest in going Year to year and based on the fact that someone will overpay to make him the face of their franchise

 

Yeah, I have to agree. We have 3 more years of Bogey left, if we don't trade him.

[a700hitter]

One of the goals of having a strong farm is to have young, cost controlled players ready to step in when other guys leave for free agency. If you have several cost controlled guys on the team, you obviously have more money to spend on free agents.

Unless it doesn't count against the LT threshold...right?

[jacksonianmarch]

It's about realizing your window. Kim, you had to suck to get Groome and Beni. You missed with Ball at 7. You paid $60 mil for Moncada. Your team last year minus Price and Kimbrel don't make the playoffs. You lost Papi for this year. Status quo without Papi would have been a wild card contender. You stockpile prospects to either use them or deal them. You used them and then you dealt them. Without DD making these moves, your team is a contender for a WC maybe. With the moves, you're the favorite to go to the WS

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not even sure we should be favored over Cleveland.

[a700hitter]

I'm not even sure we should be favored over Cleveland.

Cleveland has a very strong team on paper.

[notin]

I'm not even sure we should be favored over Cleveland.

 

If I had to put money on one team in the AL, Cleveland is the easy choice. I'd put Boston as equal to Texas, whose in a weaker division and therefore more of a shoo-in to make the post-season already. But none of that means a thing to the Red Sox

..

[Fisk]

If I had to put money on one team in the AL, Cleveland is the easy choice. I'd put Boston as equal to Texas, whose in a weaker division and therefore more of a shoo-in to make the post-season already. But none of that means a thing to the Red Sox

..

 

Boston had a + 176 run differential last year Cleveland a 113 . Boston lost a lot of tough games last year by a run, should not have that bad luck this year. Going into the playoffs nobody should have thought the Guardians were the better team, yes they swept us, but the playoffs are a crapshoot and the sox were more talented. We have added Sale to our rotation they have added Encarcions, I still believe we have more talent. To even compare Texas to us right now is crazy they had a minus 4 run differential last year, after there top 2 starters they are very weak and the lineup has a lot of holes.

[moonslav59]

It's about realizing your window. Kim, you had to suck to get Groome and Beni. You missed with Ball at 7. You paid $60 mil for Moncada. Your team last year minus Price and Kimbrel don't make the playoffs. You lost Papi for this year. Status quo without Papi would have been a wild card contender. You stockpile prospects to either use them or deal them. You used them and then you dealt them. Without DD making these moves, your team is a contender for a WC maybe. With the moves, you're the favorite to go to the WS

 

I think we're still division favorites without Sale, but I agree, the moves made us much more serious WS contenders.

[notin]

Boston had a + 176 run differential last year Cleveland a 113 . Boston lost a lot of tough games last year by a run, should not have that bad luck this year. Going into the playoffs nobody should have thought the Guardians were the better team, yes they swept us, but the playoffs are a crapshoot and the sox were more talented. We have added Sale to our rotation they have added Encarcions, I still believe we have more talent. To even compare Texas to us right now is crazy they had a minus 4 run differential last year, after there top 2 starters they are very weak and the lineup has a lot of holes.

 

The Guardians were also without their best hitter in Michael Brantley last year. And spent a good chunk of the season without 2 of their best starting pitchers, plus the entire post-season.

 

I didn't compare Texas to Boston. I said the AL West should be easier for them than the AL East should be for Boston. The mere act of being more likely to be in the post-season should make for them to have better odds. Too many fans seem to like sleeping on Toronto and think the AL East is already locked up...

[Fisk]

Brantley had a major injury no guarantee he's ever going to be the same. Salazar I have serious doubts that he can make it a couple months , Carrasco is always hurt. We had Benindenti for about one month last year, Price had his worst year, EROD pretty much lost the whole first half of the season, and I will be shocked if Pablo does not out perform Shaw. To top it off our young guys are a year older and should keep improving.

[Fisk]

I would put Texas behind Houston and probably Seattle. Actually I would say Boston Cleveland, Toronto, Houston are definitely better and a good chance Detroit, Seattle, and Baltimore are better.

[Kimmi]

I disagree. Even if the luxury tax rest was not a high priority, long term financial viability is always a priority.

 

While one could look and see that EE to a three year deal would mean his contract ends at just "the right time" to be able to keep our big guns, I think our best way to keep all of our stars or all b ut one will be to extend some of them before we reach year 3. If we do so, the budget would get so high, assuming we also have EE, we'd getting close to the massive penalties enforced by going $20M over the limit.

 

Long term financial flexibility should always be a priority, but for a team that is in 'win now' mode, if they weren't concerned about resetting the penalty, I don't think they'd be concerned about the long term.

[Kimmi]

I don't mean to speak for Kimmi, but I'd say not having a strong farm to infuse the team with low cost role players or secondary level players will force us to fill those roles via free agency, where just average players cost a lot. Those dollars add up to a point where it might restrict how much we can spend on big names.

 

Right now, we have the following talent at near min cost. Will we have a similar set-up 3-7 years from now?

 

Betts

ERod

Beni

Wright

Smith

Vazquez-Leon-Swihart

Barnes

Hembree

 

Plus, having recent prospect grads like Bogey + JBJ for just over $8M is something we may not see 2-4 years from now with Betts + ERod or Beni.

 

 

Exactly. It's because of all of the cost controlled players that we were able to sign Price.

[Kimmi]

Unless it doesn't count against the LT threshold...right?

 

What? Unless what doesn't count against the threshold?

[Kimmi]

It's about realizing your window. Kim, you had to suck to get Groome and Beni. You missed with Ball at 7. You paid $60 mil for Moncada. Your team last year minus Price and Kimbrel don't make the playoffs. You lost Papi for this year. Status quo without Papi would have been a wild card contender. You stockpile prospects to either use them or deal them. You used them and then you dealt them. Without DD making these moves, your team is a contender for a WC maybe. With the moves, you're the favorite to go to the WS

 

This year's team is a contender either way. Sale is nice to have, but he was not a need. What happens in the playoffs is mostly a crapshoot.

 

I am thrilled with the team that we have, but I will never agree with Dombrowski depleting our farm system, especially since he didn't build it. I am strongly against the 'win now at any cost' philosophy.

[Kimmi]

I'm not even sure we should be favored over Cleveland.

 

I think it's very close, but I'd give the slight edge to the Sox.

[a700hitter]

What? Unless what doesn't count against the threshold?

Some people act like it isn't real money if it doesn't count toward the Luxury Tax Threshold.

[Kimmi]

Some people act like it isn't real money if it doesn't count toward the Luxury Tax Threshold.

 

I really have no clue what you're talking about.