A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[harmony]

From today's FanGraphs chat with columnist Jeff Sullivan:

 

Ryan

10:38 Will Mitch Moreland be the Red Sox starting 1B at the end of the season?

 

Jeff Sullivan

10:38 No

EbenezerBatflip

10:37 Which relief pitcher should Boston fans be most excited for in 2017, Thornburg, Carson Smith, Joe Kelly, or another guy?

 

Jeff Sullivan

10:37 Smith, if he's at 100%

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-2317/#more-244245

[Nick]

From today's FanGraphs chat with columnist Jeff Sullivan:

 

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-2317/#more-244245

 

DD sent a clear signal to EE's agent when DD told him no multiple year contract was available from Sox. DD wants to make sure Sam Travis is 100% healthy. He'll be called up by mid season. He's in the mold of Beni, pure swing.

[moonslav59]

Looking at projected opening day roster for all of our teams, yep our OF depth is almost non existent.

 

Beyond our very good 4th OF'er (Young), we have guys that can play "out of position" like Holt, Swihart or Moreland, but after that cue the sound of crickets.

[moonslav59]

EbenezerBatflip

10:37 Which relief pitcher should Boston fans be most excited for in 2017, Thornburg, Carson Smith, Joe Kelly, or another guy?

 

Jeff Sullivan

10:37 Smith, if he's at 100%

 

1) We can be pretty sure Smith will not be at 100% to start the season, and I've heard some say June could be his ETA.

2) Last full seasons:

2016 Thornburg 67 IP/ 2015 C Smith 70 IP

WAR 2.0 2.1

WHIP 0.94 1.01

ERA- 50 60

xFIP 3.28 2.36

K/BB 3.60 4.18

K/9 10.5 11.8

 

Pretty close, and pretty darn good!

[moonslav59]

DD sent a clear signal to EE's agent when DD told him no multiple year contract was available from Sox. DD wants to make sure Sam Travis is 100% healthy. He'll be called up by mid season. He's in the mold of Beni, pure swing.

 

With Travis probably near ML ready once he's rehabbed enough and Devers 1-2 years away, it never made sense to me to sign EE long term, especially when you look at how tight the budget will be when we want to start extending our young stars.

[harmony]

DD sent a clear signal to EE's agent when DD told him no multiple year contract was available from Sox. DD wants to make sure Sam Travis is 100% healthy. He'll be called up by mid season. He's in the mold of Beni, pure swing.

Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects these 2017 lines for Mitch Moreland and Sam Travis:

 

MM 71 R, 21 HR, 76 RBI, 2 SB, .255/.319/.433/.752, wRC+ 95, 0.7 WAR

ST 70 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 11 SB, .272/.326/.417/.743, wRC+ 95, 0.7 WAR

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=

 

ZiPS projects 2017 WAR of 0.5 in 427 plate appearances for Moreland and 0.4 in 368 plate appearances for Travis (and OPS+ of 90 for Moreland and 97 for Travis).

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

Edited February 3, 2017 by harmony

[Fisk]

Would not count on Smith at least till July, take it slow make sure he's 100%. Workman really struggled last year in his attempt to comeback after one year.

[Nick]

Would not count on Smith at least till July, take it slow make sure he's 100%. Workman really struggled last year in his attempt to comeback after one year.

 

I agree......but Sox needs some cost controlled, league minimum guys to offset highly paid guys.

[Fisk]

Dombrowski said they were struggling to sign players to minor league contracts, because of the lack of opportunity to make the team.

I agree......but Sox needs some cost controlled, league minimum guys to offset highly paid guys.

[moonslav59]

I agree......but Sox needs some cost controlled, league minimum guys to offset highly paid guys.

 

We also need guys that can play.

 

I'm hopeful Smith can help us by mid season, and we do need some quality low cost players to offset our big star contracts and sunken costs.

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski said they were struggling to sign players to minor league contracts, because of the lack of opportunity to make the team.

 

It's a nice problem to have-- a super strong 25.

[notin]

DD sent a clear signal to EE's agent when DD told him no multiple year contract was available from Sox. DD wants to make sure Sam Travis is 100% healthy. He'll be called up by mid season. He's in the mold of Beni, pure swing.

 

Nothing against Sam Travis, but Dombrowski would be insane to simply pass on Encarnacion to accomodate the prospect.

 

Financially it makes sense. Historically Dombrowski trades prospects before he clears paths for them. If he liked Travis that much, he'd probably have traded him too...

[User Name]

That's not true at all. DD usually trades the busts and keeps the good ones.

[moonslav59]

Nothing against Sam Travis, but Dombrowski would be insane to simply pass on Encarnacion to accomodate the prospect.

 

Financially it makes sense. Historically Dombrowski trades prospects before he clears paths for them. If he liked Travis that much, he'd probably have traded him too...

 

...Or, no other GM liked Travis more than DD did.

[Kimmi]

Nothing against Sam Travis, but Dombrowski would be insane to simply pass on Encarnacion to accomodate the prospect.

 

Financially it makes sense. Historically Dombrowski trades prospects before he clears paths for them. If he liked Travis that much, he'd probably have traded him too...

 

I don't think Dombrowski passed on Encarnacion simply to accommodate Travis. IMO, who he signed or did not sign was all about resetting the luxury tax. If resetting were not an issue, I think Dombrowski would have signed Encarnacion and figured out what to do with Travis later.

[moonslav59]

I don't think Dombrowski passed on Encarnacion simply to accommodate Travis. IMO, who he signed or did not sign was all about resetting the luxury tax. If resetting were not an issue, I think Dombrowski would have signed Encarnacion and figured out what to do with Travis later.

 

I don't disagree, but I think it was more than just resetting the tax. It was about our finances beyond next year. We are looking at being seriously squeezed when it comes to keeping our best young talent once they reach the end of their team control years. Yes, the tax factors into our finances beyond 2018, but I think we may not have signed EE even if we could have rest the tax this winter due to the effect it might have had on future signings and extensions being restricted.

Edited February 4, 2017 by moonslav59

[Fisk]

I agree with both of you, had to reset the tax with most of our young players becoming Arbitration eligible this year and next. Penalties are just to great. I also look at EE's age and would not be surprised if Travis is the better player in a couple years.

[moonslav59]

I agree with both of you, had to reset the tax with most of our young players becoming Arbitration eligible this year and next. Penalties are just to great. I also look at EE's age and would not be surprised if Travis is the better player in a couple years.

 

I like Shaw, but I don't think EE is here right now had we traded Shaw away this winter.

[Nick]

I don't disagree, but I think it was more than just resetting the tax. It was about our finances beyond next year. We are looking at being seriously squeezed when it comes to keeping our best young talent once they reach the end of their team control years. Yes, the tax factors into our finances beyond 2018, but I think we may not have signed EE even if we could have rest the tax this winter due to the effect it might have had on future signings and extensions being restricted.

 

+1000

 

You can't continue to add multiple year, high value contracts. We really don't have much wiggle room. Our big drop off comes after 2019 when Porcello ($20M), Sale ($12.5M), Hanley ($22M), Pablo ($19M) and Bogaertz (Maybe $12-14M?). We can hope Groome can replace Porcello/Sale and retain Xander. We have close to $90M to retain Sale/Porcello/Xander. BUT, big BUT, Betts and JBJ become FA a year later.

[moonslav59]

+1000

 

You can't continue to add multiple year, high value contracts. We really don't have much wiggle room. Our big drop off comes after 2019 when Porcello ($20M), Sale ($12.5M), Hanley ($22M), Pablo ($19M) and Bogaertz (Maybe $12-14M?). We can hope Groome can replace Porcello/Sale and retain Xander. We have close to $90M to retain Sale/Porcello/Xander. BUT, big BUT, Betts and JBJ become FA a year later.

 

We really have to hope Devers and or Shaw can step in without a significant loss in production (from HanRam-Pablo). Then, there is Swihart, who could become a force at 1B, DH or even 3B, if catcher does not work out. He could also be a trading chip, if we don't need him at catcher.

 

If Groome can be a solid 4-5 starter by 2020, that could allow us to maybe get by with just bringing back (or replacing in kind) Porcello or Sale. That hope also depends on ERod and Wright stepping into the 3-4 slots adequately.

 

Probably, a more realistic approach would be to hope 2 of the 3 (Devers, Groome & Shaw) come through for us. I guess an added hope could be that we get a pleasant surprise from Dalbec, Hernandez, Ockimey, Chatham, Longhi or someone else, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that.

 

We may have to hope Owens or Johnson can replace Pomeranz after 2018 as the 5/6th starter. Travis can replace Moreland after this year or Devers could replace Moreland as Pablo moves to 1B or DH after 2017. We should know enough about Devers and Travis after 2019. Keeping 3B/1B/DH low cost positions would go a long way in our hopes of keeping just about all the guys we want to keep.

Edited February 5, 2017 by moonslav59

[Nick]

What can we expect to get for Xander at year end if he has a repeat of last year?

[harmony]

What can we expect to get for Xander at year end if he has a repeat of last year?

Depends on the market.

 

Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects Xander Bogarts with the sixth-highest WAR among shortstops in 2017:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d

 

Four of the five shortstops ranked ahead of Bogaerts are younger than Bogaerts.

[moonslav59]

What can we expect to get for Xander at year end if he has a repeat of last year?

 

Then what? Sign or trade for a SS?

[Nick]

I'm just trying to figure out his market value........SS seems to be a saturated position. Would he be in demand?

 

Who would want him?

[moonslav59]

I'm just trying to figure out his market value........SS seems to be a saturated position. Would he be in demand?

 

Who would want him?

 

Probab;y about 20 teams would want him, but how many enough to give us a lot for him.

[moonslav59]

If we try to keep all our big stars:

$30M Price

$13M Pedroia

 

2020

$30M Sale

$25M Porcello

$23M Bogey

 

2021

$30M Betts

$22M JBJ

 

That's $173M plus $12M to player benefits. That leaves us at $185M for 7 players.

 

If we paid the other 33 players about $600K, we'd be at about $205M, which will be near the limit. This won't happen as we will have several players nearing the end of their arb years.

 

There's really no way we can keep everyone, unless we go way over the limit, or some of these guys do poorly before their contracts are up. My estimates would go down, but we probably wouldn't want them.

 

It's way early to speculate, but my guess as of now is we let Porcello go and maybe even lose Bogey to free agency.

 

2021

Price

Sale

ERod

Wright

Groome

 

1) Beni LF

2) Pedey 2B

3) Betts RF

4) JBJ CF

5) Devers 3B

6) Swihart C

7) Travis 1B

8) Dalbec DH

9) SS TBA

 

 

 

[Nick]

It's way early to speculate, but my guess as of now is we let Porcello go and maybe even lose Bogey to free agency. Moon

 

Bingo......call me crazy but I have Xander below Betts, Sale, Bradley Jr and Porcello. I also think Borass will ask for the moon.

Edited February 5, 2017 by Nick

[Dojji]

Probab;y about 20 teams would want him, but how many enough to give us a lot for him.

 

At a guess? Most of them. Xander is a premium product. There's only one player on this roster I would rather lock down than Bogaerts, and that's Sale. That may be a bit irrational of me, but IMHO, Betts has peaked, and Bogaerts has not, and Bogaerts is already providing high level production at one of the hardest positions in the league to find such. It would be a lot easier to find a RF to replace half of Betts' production than to find an SS on the market that could replace half of Bogaerts'

 

Power hitting shortstops with no major holes in their game aren't easy to come by. Bogaerts earned his place in the All Star Team last year has every chance to break out and become a superstar this year, I wouldn't put huge money on Betts outperforming him by the end of the season.

 

All Bogaerts really needs to do to become a superstud is stay out of the big slumps. If he can improve his approach at the plate and stop digging himself into trouble, or at least start digging himself out of it faster, the sky's the limit. Not anxious to move a guy like that, especially with no other premium SS talent in the high minors.

Edited February 5, 2017 by Dojji

[Kimmi]

I don't disagree, but I think it was more than just resetting the tax. It was about our finances beyond next year. We are looking at being seriously squeezed when it comes to keeping our best young talent once they reach the end of their team control years. Yes, the tax factors into our finances beyond 2018, but I think we may not have signed EE even if we could have rest the tax this winter due to the effect it might have had on future signings and extensions being restricted.

 

I agree that the FO is also trying to avoid long term contracts, if possible, in order to have more financial flexibility for when our youngsters become free agents. Resetting the tax penalty is a big part of gaining that flexibility. That said, I think there's a good chance Dombrowski would have signed Encarnacion if he weren't given the directive to get under the luxury tax this year.

 

The ability to sign the guys that we want to keep could be hampered by not having the strength in the farm system that we once had.

[Dojji]

The ability to sign the guys that we want to keep could be hampered by not having the strength in the farm system that we once had.

 

 

How do you figure?