A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Emp9]

Measuring offensive contributions based on hits is silly. Besides, over a significant sample of six years, EE has been the better player, mostly because he's been more durable overall. Health has value.

 

Wouldn't ya' know I mention 7 other categories other than hits and my first post on the topic I highlighted the word HEALTHY in bold. And the last time a checked a 12 year sample size is larger than a 6 year sample size. Did you have a point besides the s*** I already covered?

[Emp9]

EE has 425 games at DH ( he's hit 101 HR there) , HanRam has 36 career games at DH ( 10 HR ). I'm actually very curious to see what HanRam does with more time DHing, power-wise.

[moonslav59]

I think DH'ing should help HanRam stay fresher and hopefully healthier.

 

I doubt being DH changes anything to do with his power or OB skills. I know the mentality is different, but HanRam has DH'd before and said he liked it.

[User Name]

Wouldn't ya' know I mention 7 other categories other than hits and my first post on the topic I highlighted the word HEALTHY in bold. And the last time a checked a 12 year sample size is larger than a 6 year sample size. Did you have a point besides the s*** I already covered?

 

I don't think you understand how sample sizes actually work then. Carry on with the senseless argument.

[moonslav59]

I don't think you understand how sample sizes actually work then. Carry on with the senseless argument.

 

1) Sample sizes don't "work"; they just are.

2) Anybody with half a sense of statistics knows that sample size matters, and even a large group of rather large random sample sizes will produce a few very low and very high results.

3) My argument has never been about denying there are players that have done very badly "in the clutch". That's not "senseless".

 

The fact that you can find a few horrible samples proves nothing.

 

 

Edited February 2, 2017 by moonslav59

[harmony]

Wouldn't ya' know I mention 7 other categories other than hits and my first post on the topic I highlighted the word HEALTHY in bold. And the last time a checked a 12 year sample size is larger than a 6 year sample size. Did you have a point besides the s*** I already covered?

ZiPS projects 2017 OPS+ of 137 for Edwin Encarnacion and 120 for Hanley Ramirez. FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project 2017 wRC+ of 123 for Encarnacion and 120 for Ramirez.

 

Bald opinions are occasionally interesting but rarely enlightening.

 

I offer opinions sparingly. Instead I provide relevant information that the reader may incorporate or ignore in reaching his or her own opinion ... or not.

Edited February 2, 2017 by harmony

[Bellhorn04]

1) Sample sizes don't "work"; they just are.

2) Anybody with half a sense of statistics knows that sample size matters, and even a large group of rather large random sample sizes will produce a few very low and very high results.

3) My argument has never been about denying there are players that have done very badly "in the clutch". That's not "senseless".

 

The fact that you can find a few horrible samples proves nothing.

 

 

You seem to be responding on the wrong thread. UserName was responding to Emp9 about Hanley.

[moonslav59]

You seem to be responding on the wrong thread. UserName was responding to Emp9 about Hanley.

 

Yes, I did not realize I had two windows open, and I responded to the wrong thread.

[moonslav59]

Winter League Updates:

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/02/fallwinter-roundup-castillo-leads.html

 

Christian Vazquez went 2 for 4 with a double and a walk before being replaced in the ninth inning.

 

Rusney Castillo helped Caguas grab the victory by going 2 for 6. Castillo will be the lone Red Sox player to partake in the Caribbean Series by virtue of Caguas' victory.

 

Fernando Abad pitched in four of the five games last week for Aguilas, facing one batter over the minimum in 3 2/3 innings and striking out five batters, with the lone batter to reach doing so on an error.

 

Hanley Ramirez and Marco Hernandez [are not] listed on the club's roster for the [upcoming] Caribbean Series.

[moonslav59]

Castillo is hitting .392 in the winter league, but he has no HRs in 51 ABs (.882 OPS).

[mvp 78]

Castillo is hitting .392 in the winter league, but he has no HRs in 51 ABs (.882 OPS).

 

SSS. He could EASILY hit 30 HR's over the next 300 ABs.

[moonslav59]

SSS. He could EASILY hit 30 HR's over the next 300 ABs.

 

I had really high hopes for Rusney.

 

I'm not criticizing Sox management & scouting, but I don't think he got a very long look at the ML level.

 

I'm not arguing he should get a chance now, since his contract would put us right at the luxury limit, if we were to have him on the 40 man roster all season.

[mvp 78]

I had really high hopes for Rusney.

 

I'm not criticizing Sox management & scouting, but I don't think he got a very long look at the ML level.

 

I'm not arguing he should get a chance now, since his contract would put us right at the luxury limit, if we were to have him on the 40 man roster all season.

 

He's a holdover from Ben's administration that DD doesn't like. It's a shame that he hasn't developed more at AAA leaving him unable to be traded.

 

I'm sure he's not really bummed about the money he's making.

[a700hitter]

I had really high hopes for Rusney.

Based on what? It was one of the dumbest signings of all time. $72 million and they knew almost nothing about the guy, and he had almost no resume or career worth mentioning. He hadn't played for a year or year and a half Whalen he was signed. Ben would have had a better chance of success if he went on that TV show where people bid in storage lockers.

[Emp9]

I don't think you understand how sample sizes actually work then. Carry on with the senseless argument.

 

My post had nothing to do with SOMEONE ELSE's post-arbitrarily, cherry-picked, sample size. Hanley is the better hitter over the course of both their careers. Plain and simple. I'm not the one who brought up sample sizes other than their whole careers. It's not my burden to fit what I said, which was factual, into someone else's arbitrary window of importance after the fact. LOL

[Emp9]

I think DH'ing should help HanRam stay fresher and hopefully healthier.

 

I doubt being DH changes anything to do with his power or OB skills. I know the mentality is different, but HanRam has DH'd before and said he liked it.

 

Maybe, maybe not. But healthier is a nice first step. EE has had 1,000 more PA as DH so... It'll be interesting to see.

[moonslav59]

He's a holdover from Ben's administration that DD doesn't like. It's a shame that he hasn't developed more at AAA leaving him unable to be traded.

 

I'm sure he's not really bummed about the money he's making.

 

It's hard to make a case for playing at the ML level when you're batting .664 in AAA with 2 HRs in almost 400 ABs.

 

Maybe he's just given up hope.

[moonslav59]

Maybe, maybe not. But healthier is a nice first step. EE has had 1,000 more PA as DH so... It'll be interesting to see.

 

HRam has 155 PAs as a DH. That's a small sample size, but so far there is no indication being a DH has a negative impact on his offense:

 

DH: 1.014

SS: .882

1B: .845

3B .762

LF: .690

 

Note: DH is the smallest sample size on this list. (LF and 3B are between 350 and 375 PAs.)

[User Name]

1) Sample sizes don't "work"; they just are.

2) Anybody with half a sense of statistics knows that sample size matters, and even a large group of rather large random sample sizes will produce a few very low and very high results.

3) My argument has never been about denying there are players that have done very badly "in the clutch". That's not "senseless".

 

The fact that you can find a few horrible samples proves nothing.

 

 

 

I wasn't talking to you. And you clearly misconstrued the point. I clearly quoted who I was referring to.

[User Name]

My post had nothing to do with SOMEONE ELSE's post-arbitrarily, cherry-picked, sample size. Hanley is the better hitter over the course of both their careers. Plain and simple. I'm not the one who brought up sample sizes other than their whole careers. It's not my burden to fit what I said, which was factual, into someone else's arbitrary window of importance after the fact. LOL

 

That's the point. Why would you do the same thing? It's illogical. You need a point that your use of a sample should back up.

 

Everyone knows EE's story. He was a terrible defensive 3B and a meh hitter who broke out after reaching the Blue Jays and being moved off the position. Shouldn't the "current" EE be the basis of comparison against Hanley? Also, stop being such a massive homer. Encarnacion is clearly an overall better player than Hanley right now. I love Hanley, but it is what it is.

[moonslav59]

That's the point. Why would you do the same thing? It's illogical. You need a point that your use of a sample should back up.

 

Everyone knows EE's story. He was a terrible defensive 3B and a meh hitter who broke out after reaching the Blue Jays and being moved off the position. Shouldn't the "current" EE be the basis of comparison against Hanley? Also, stop being such a massive homer. Encarnacion is clearly an overall better player than Hanley right now. I love Hanley, but it is what it is.

 

100% correctomundo.

 

Other than Hanley's excellent half season in 2013, his 2016 season was the first time he exceeded his career norm OPS of .861 since 2009!

 

On the otherhand, EE has not been below his career norm OPS of .850 since 2011!

[moonslav59]

The Guardians just signed Boone Logan.

 

I thought there pen was already very strong and deep!

[Spudboy]

It's hard to make a case for playing at the ML level when you're batting .664 in AAA with 2 HRs in almost 400 ABs.

 

Maybe he's just given up hope.

 

Maybe he just sucks.

[moonslav59]

Maybe he just sucks.

 

Yeah. That's probably the right answer.

[harmony]

MLB.com columnist Phil Rogers lists the Red Sox as the most improved team:

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/214169470/which-mlb-team-improved-most-this-offseason/

[moonslav59]

Our lack of deep organizational depth at the OF position might keep Castillo's name in the mix, but he's going to have to really step up his game to get any chance at breaking out of his contractual purgatory.

 

He's probably just not good enough to do that, but his winter numbers are encouraging. He's got a steep road to climb from here.

[Nick]

MLB.com columnist Phil Rogers lists the Red Sox as the most improved team:

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/214169470/which-mlb-team-improved-most-this-offseason/

 

I'm anxious to see what Thornburg does (and Carson Smith when he returns). Many ifs in the bullpen but this could be a pretty good group.

[moonslav59]

I'm anxious to see what Thornburg does (and Carson Smith when he returns). Many ifs in the bullpen but this could be a pretty good group.

 

I agree. Both only have one really good season under their belt, and we all know RP'ers can be very up and down.

[Spudboy]

Our lack of deep organizational depth at the OF position might keep Castillo's name in the mix, but he's going to have to really step up his game to get any chance at breaking out of his contractual purgatory.

 

He's probably just not good enough to do that, but his winter numbers are encouraging. He's got a steep road to climb from here.

 

Imagine a 30-31 year old bonus baby prospect. Lol.

[Nick]

Our lack of deep organizational depth at the OF position might keep Castillo's name in the mix, but he's going to have to really step up his game to get any chance at breaking out of his contractual purgatory.

 

He's probably just not good enough to do that, but his winter numbers are encouraging. He's got a steep road to climb from here.

 

Looking at projected opening day roster for all of our teams, yep our OF depth is almost non existent.