A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Hugh2]

I think that this is a good post. i just think that the idea of gutting something means a lot more to me than it does to the people who use the word. A healthy number of good prospects were traded. That is for sure but they will still field teams this summer at all minor league stadiums. There are still some pretty talented players kicking around. Some of them might even surprise us all.

 

True, Devers and Groome are still blue chippers with clear paths to the majors. And the next prospect Binky is always on some horizon.

 

The new far off high upside guy I'll be following is bryan matta.

[cp176]

True, Devers and Groome are still blue chippers with clear paths to the majors. And the next prospect Binky is always on some horizon.

 

The new far off high upside guy I'll be following is bryan matta.

 

You know what - I just have been reading a little bit about him. Haven't found anything very significant yet but there people that seem to be pretty high on him.

[cp176]

Ok, fair enough but I do think that.

 

I can understand that too. I'm pretty sure my opinion about that trade is the minority opinion. I understand why it was done and I have tried to see the potential upside in it. Obviously there is a fair chance that it looks like a bad move down the road. Guess I am just hoping it isn't.

[cp176]

True, Devers and Groome are still blue chippers with clear paths to the majors. And the next prospect Binky is always on some horizon.

 

The new far off high upside guy I'll be following is bryan matta.

 

Just a 17 year old kid - You just never know. He can throw the ball.

[Nick]

You can't separate Farm System from its major league team. You are ultimately judged by how well your mlb team performs. Only reason to have a good minor league system is to advance its players upward. That's exactly what the Sox has done. (use minor league players to supplant parent team, via promotion or by trading them for a major leaguer)

 

It's all about replacing outgoing players via minor league player promotion, trade or FA signings. These are AFTER the season situation.

 

After 2017 season Clay B, Chris Young, Mitch Moreland and Abad....savings in payroll $27,500 Will need to replace 1B and of depth. Sam Travis could really help out the situation if he comes through during 2017 and be major league ready for 2018 season. Will give the Sox team control until 2023. Sox really needs to be careful with how the savings are spent. Sox may want to think about using the money to extend some of the exisisting contracts. Getting into a long term contract with a new player will have dire consequences later.

 

Can we extend Xander for average value of $25M, say 4 yrs at $100M? That's buying out two arb years and two FA years. He can then still go for a bigger payout before reaching 30.

 

After 2018 Pom, Kimbrel, Kelly, Ross. (Price can opt out but unlikely at this point)....savings in payroll $21,100 (assuming no change to Pom arb #'s). Kimbrel can be resigned, has club option. Our bullpen depth again will be tested if we let Kelly and Ross walk. I think DD likes Pom. Porcello/Sale FA is looming.

 

After 2019 Porcello, Sale, Thornsburg, Workman, Ramirez, Sandoval and Xander....savings in payroll of $82,625. If Kimbrel's option is picked up after 2018, then he's also in this group...savings go to $94M. Do we have enough $$$ to sign Porcello, Sale and Xander? Will need DH, 3B and a closer. Will Devers be ready or is he already on the roster? Will someone already on the team assume the closer role? Maybe Groome or someone else is ready to replace one of Porcello/Sale.

 

After 2020 Bradley Jr, Betts, Steven Wright, Sandy Leon.....where does the money come from if we spend all $94M from previous year?

Something has to give.....

 

Maybe Kimmi has been right all along....

Edited December 19, 2016 by Nick

[Kimmi]

I like the approach of building a team internally. Then you add pieces through trades and free agents. I THINK THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT DD IS DOING, ALBEIT HE CAME IN LATE IN THE PROCESS AND HE'S THE ONE THAT'S ADDING PIECES THROUGH TRADES AND SIGNING FREE AGENTS FOR THE FINAL WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP PUSH. BEN AND THEO STARTED. (I will give that to Kimmi, unbegrudgingly.)

 

Sox Nation had the sweet taste of winning it all, three times and now we all crave for the 4th. I believe that's what Henry and the whole gang is aiming for. They can feel it. They're close. If we can win one over the next three years, then its been worth it from their perspective. They obviously are bit more optimistic about restocking the farm, knowing they have a bit longer to do it because of several team controlled talent currently on Sox major league roster.

 

I think Dombrowski is going too far with adding the pieces through trade and free agency. He is not striking enough of a balance between short and long terms.

 

The whole idea of having the sweet taste of winning in our mouths and wanting more is exactly what got the team in trouble before, when Lucchino wanted to sign 'sexy' players.

 

Yes, we all want to win again, but you have to show some restraint when building the team.

 

Fortunately, we do have a 3 year period in which we are well set. Maybe our farm will be replenished by then.

[Kimmi]

You can be against gutting the farm but like a trade. Some of us are at the very least curious about the farm going forward when you weigh the totality of all trades. A trade can stand alone. We can like the team to focus on building within, but appreciate the need to pull the trigger on an opportunity to bring in top notch talent. We don't have to be homers and just automatically like every trade. We reserve the right to like some and hate other trades.

 

Good post.

 

It's interesting how Dombrowski has turned me from being a homer to being a whiner.

[iortiz]

I think Dombrowski is going too far with adding the pieces through trade and free agency. He is not striking enough of a balance between short and long terms.

 

The whole idea of having the sweet taste of winning in our mouths and wanting more is exactly what got the team in trouble before, when Lucchino wanted to sign 'sexy' players.

 

Yes, we all want to win again, but you have to show some restraint when building the team.

 

Fortunately, we do have a 3 year period in which we are well set. Maybe our farm will be replenished by then.

Remember, the Sox is on win-mode now. Sometimes you have to pull the trigger when it is the right moment. IMO this is RS's time to win it all.

 

He is just addressing our pain points, and he has done it very well so far on paper. Remember, you have to give something good in order to get something of the same quality. The Sale trade was a bold move. Sale is a legit ace. Sure, without Sale, we still were a good team, but we weren't gong anywhere without him. Now this is a legit WS contender team.

[Nick]

I think Dombrowski is going too far with adding the pieces through trade and free agency. He is not striking enough of a balance between short and long terms.

 

The whole idea of having the sweet taste of winning in our mouths and wanting more is exactly what got the team in trouble before, when Lucchino wanted to sign 'sexy' players.

 

Yes, we all want to win again, but you have to show some restraint when building the team.

 

Fortunately, we do have a 3 year period in which we are well set. Maybe our farm will be replenished by then.

 

Noted!

[Spudboy]

Remember, the Sox is on win-mode now. Sometimes you have to pull the trigger when it is the right moment. IMO this is RS's time to win it all.

 

He is just addressing our pain points, and he has done it very well so far on paper. Remember, you have to give something good in order to get something of the same quality. The Sale trade was a bold move. Sale is a legit ace. Sure, without Sale, we still were a good team, but we weren't gong anywhere without him. Now this is a legit WS contender team.

 

Well said Hefe.

[iortiz]

Well said Hefe.

 

👍

 

IMO we have a team to compete at great level at least the next three years.

 

All seems good in the horizon boss.

[Kimmi]

Remember, the Sox is on win-mode now. Sometimes you have to pull the trigger when it is the right moment. IMO this is RS's time to win it all.

 

He is just addressing our pain points, and he has done it very well so far on paper. Remember, you have to give something good in order to get something of the same quality. The Sale trade was a bold move. Sale is a legit ace. Sure, without Sale, we still were a good team, but we weren't gong anywhere without him. Now this is a legit WS contender team.

 

You do not know that the Sox were going nowhere before. We were a legit WS contender before Sale. He is a great addition, but he was not a NEED.

 

I realize that the Sox are in win now mode. I just disagree with the philosophy of gutting the farm to win now.

[iortiz]

You do not know that the Sox were going nowhere before. We were a legit WS contender before Sale. He is a great addition, but he was not a NEED.

 

I realize that the Sox are in win now mode. I just disagree with the philosophy of gutting the farm to win now.

Let's be honest, without an ace, we weren't going anywhere Kim --i.e. We weren't going to win a WS--

 

An arm like Sale is a must, if you want to win a WS --on paper.

[moonslav59]

I think that this is a good post. i just think that the idea of gutting something means a lot more to me than it does to the people who use the word. A healthy number of good prospects were traded. That is for sure but they will still field teams this summer at all minor league stadiums. There are still some pretty talented players kicking around. Some of them might even surprise us all.

 

In terms of the history of MLB prospect trade windows, it's hard to imagine any other GM unloading so many top prospects as DD has over the last 12-13 months.

 

Maybe it's not a total gut, but it's about as close to it as I've ever seen.

 

DD traded this:

 

Mid-season Baseball America Rankings:

#1 Moncada

#15 Espinosa

#39 Margot

#87 Guerra (52 to start the season/right after the trade)

#93 Kopech

 

Highest soxprospects.com ranking:

1. Moncada

3. Espinoza

3. Margot

3. Cecchini

5. Kopech

6. Guerra

7. Basabe

10. Dubon

12. T Shaw (not a prospect when traded)

12. Wendell Rijo

13. Logan Allen

13. Pat Light

14. Edwin Escobar (claimed off waivers)

18. Basabe (the other one)

20. Carlos Asuaje

21. Victor Diaz

21. Jonathan Aro

27. Josh Pennington

30. Aaron Wilkerson

40. Jose Almonte

 

And kept this:

Devers

Groome

Travis

 

[moonslav59]

You can't separate Farm System from its major league team. You are ultimately judged by how well your mlb team performs. Only reason to have a good minor league system is to advance its players upward. That's exactly what the Sox has done. (use minor league players to supplant parent team, via promotion or by trading them for a major leaguer)

 

It's all about replacing outgoing players via minor league player promotion, trade or FA signings. These are AFTER the season situation.

 

After 2017 season Clay B, Chris Young, Mitch Moreland and Abad....savings in payroll $27,500 Will need to replace 1B and of depth. Sam Travis could really help out the situation if he comes through during 2017 and be major league ready for 2018 season. Will give the Sox team control until 2023. Sox really needs to be careful with how the savings are spent. Sox may want to think about using the money to extend some of the exisisting contracts. Getting into a long term contract with a new player will have dire consequences later.

 

Can we extend Xander for average value of $25M, say 4 yrs at $100M? That's buying out two arb years and two FA years. He can then still go for a bigger payout before reaching 30.

 

After 2018 Pom, Kimbrel, Kelly, Ross. (Price can opt out but unlikely at this point)....savings in payroll $21,100 (assuming no change to Pom arb #'s). Kimbrel can be resigned, has club option. Our bullpen depth again will be tested if we let Kelly and Ross walk. I think DD likes Pom. Porcello/Sale FA is looming.

 

After 2019 Porcello, Sale, Thornsburg, Workman, Ramirez, Sandoval and Xander....savings in payroll of $82,625. If Kimbrel's option is picked up after 2018, then he's also in this group...savings go to $94M. Do we have enough $$$ to sign Porcello, Sale and Xander? Will need DH, 3B and a closer. Will Devers be ready or is he already on the roster? Will someone already on the team assume the closer role? Maybe Groome or someone else is ready to replace one of Porcello/Sale.

 

After 2020 Bradley Jr, Betts, Steven Wright, Sandy Leon.....where does the money come from if we spend all $94M from previous year?

Something has to give.....

 

Maybe Kimmi has been right all along....

 

When you figure in the arb raises, some of which will be massive in their year 2 and 3 arbs, there may not be as much left over to spend on FAs as it looks.

 

Also, the luxury tax numbers are based on average salary of each contract, but when certain players reach their option years, that cost goes up as well:

 

Luxury cost to new option cost:

 

2018- Kimbrel $10.5M to $13M

 

2018- Sale $6.5M to $12.5M

 

2019- Sale $12.5M to $13.5M

 

Then, the arb raises...

 

2018:

3rd of 3: Pom, Kelly, Ross

2nd of 3: Bogey, Thornburg, Holt, Rutledge & Workman

1st of 3: Betts, Smith, Wright & Vaz

1st of 4: Erod, Swihart

 

2019:

3rd of 3: Bogey, Thornburg, Holt, Rutledge & Workman

2nd of 3: Betts, Smith, Wright & Vaz

2nd of 4: Erod, Swihart

1st of 3: Barnes, Elias & Hembree

 

2020:

3rd of 3: Betts, Smith, Wright & Vaz

3rd of 4: Erod, Swihart

2nd of 3: Barnes, Elias & Hembree

plus maybe Beni and others starting arbs.

Edited December 19, 2016 by moonslav59

[Nick]

In terms of the history of MLB prospect trade windows, it's hard to imagine any other GM unloading so many top prospects as DD has over the last 12-13 months.

 

Maybe it's not a total gut, but it's about as close to it as I've ever seen.

 

DD traded this:

 

Mid-season Baseball America Rankings:

#1 Moncada

#15 Espinosa

#39 Margot

#87 Guerra (52 to start the season/right after the trade)

#93 Kopech

 

Highest soxprospects.com ranking:

1. Moncada

3. Espinoza

3. Margot

3. Cecchini

5. Kopech

6. Guerra

7. Basabe

10. Dubon

12. T Shaw (not a prospect when traded)

12. Wendell Rijo

13. Logan Allen

13. Pat Light

14. Edwin Escobar (claimed off waivers)

18. Basabe (the other one)

20. Carlos Asuaje

21. Victor Diaz

21. Jonathan Aro

27. Josh Pennington

30. Aaron Wilkerson

40. Jose Almonte

 

And kept this:

Devers

Groome

Travis

 

 

I think you need to do a further analysis of how each player would have fit into the Sox roster in the future. Let's start with Moncada.

 

He was ultimately let go because I believe DD values Devers higher at 3B. Suppose that is true. Where would you move Moncada? He's already been lifted from 2B due to Pedy (assuming he could have played that position). Move him to left field? Where we already have Beni. Move Beni to CF and trade Bradley Jr? Trade him for Sale?

 

Suppose Moncada was our future 3B. Move Devers to 1B? What to do with Travis? What kind of trade value does HE have? Certainly not good enough to become a major piece for Sale.

 

Sale trade had essence of time attached to it. His desirability aside from his ace quality was initial low AAV and two years of cost effective team options. This is why it took at the least Moncada and Kopech.

 

The whole point is that from where I sit, one of two (Moncada/Devers) was expendable. This is why you draft best available player. You trade away the surplus when it's time. It's time.

 

Kopech was tough one for me. I had hopes of him coming in as a reliever in late September call up. You stretch him in 2018 and get him into our rotation. I had high hopes for him. Maybe he'd be another Chris Sale. Utlitmately you pay a price to get Sale.

 

I just don't believe you can simply throw out a list without the background information. Yes there is such a thing as a player being blocked. You get what you can get for that player to improve the major league team.

 

Basic math is this. For Sox, you can only pay about $180M in aggregate for 20 players on the major league roster in order to say under the cap. Last five will be making the league minimum. Thus it works out to $9M per player. Let's make the math easy and say $10M per player for 20 players. Between Price, Porcello, Pable and Hanley, we need another 5 players to make the league minimum to make it work. Ultimately, you can only have so many players making $10-$30M.

 

I think we have as much of a team that money can buy without going over the limit right now for next three years. I'm shooting to be in the world series at least twice.

Edited December 19, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Remember, the Sox is on win-mode now. Sometimes you have to pull the trigger when it is the right moment. IMO this is RS's time to win it all.

 

He is just addressing our pain points, and he has done it very well so far on paper. Remember, you have to give something good in order to get something of the same quality. The Sale trade was a bold move. Sale is a legit ace. Sure, without Sale, we still were a good team, but we weren't gong anywhere without him. Now this is a legit WS contender team.

 

It is what it is, but remember, when Theo built the 2004 championship team, in part by using dome of Dan D's prospects to get us Schilling, he kept the farm loaded. He could have gone farther to insure we'd be even more favored to win it all, but he kept a balance. Our farm still had HanRam, Lester, Youkilis, Papelbon, Anibal Sanchez, Shoppach, Delcarmen, David Murphy and more. He didn't leave three prospects.

 

Theo could have traded more prospects than he did to get Beckett and Lowell for the 2007 ring. He kept his major prospect trades to one. We won in 2007, but still had these guys on the farm: Ellsbury, Buchholz, Masterson, Lowrie, B Moss, Reddick, Doubront, Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden & D Bard.

 

When Ben built a championship team in 2013, the farm was left loeaded.

 

You don't have to go tot his extreme to win a ring.

 

I love the Sale and Thornburg trades, but we've never won a ring by emptying or nearly emptying the farm before.

[moonslav59]

Let's be honest, without an ace, we weren't going anywhere Kim --i.e. We weren't going to win a WS--

 

An arm like Sale is a must, if you want to win a WS --on paper.

 

Then I guess you should be bashing DD for signing Price to be our "ace".

[moonslav59]

I think you need to do a further analysis of how each player would have fit into the Sox roster in the future. Let's start with Moncada.

 

He was ultimately let go because I believe DD values Devers higher at 3B. Suppose that is true. Where would you move Moncada? He's already been lifted from 2B due to Pedy (assuming he could have played that position). Move him to left field? Where we already have Beni. Move Beni to CF and trade Bradley Jr? Trade him for Sale?

 

Suppose Moncada was our future 3B. Move Devers to 1B? What to do with Travis? What kind of trade value does HE have? Certainly not good enough to become a major piece for Sale.

 

Sale trade had essence of time attached to it. His desirability aside from his ace quality was initial low AAV and two years of cost effective team options. This is why it took at the least Moncada and Kopech.

 

The whole point is that from where I sit, one of two (Moncada/Devers) was expendable. This is why you draft best available player. You trade away the surplus when it's time. It's time.

 

Kopech was tough one for me. I had hopes of him coming in as a reliever in late September call up. You stretch him in 2018 and get him into our rotation. I had high hopes for him. Maybe he'd be another Chris Sale. Utlitmately you pay a price to get Sale.

 

I just don't believe you can simply throw out a list without the background information. Yes there is such a thing as a player being blocked. You get what you can get for that player to improve the major league team.

 

Basic math is this. For Sox, you can only pay about $180M in aggregate for 20 players on the major league roster in order to say under the cap. Last five will be making the league minimum. Thus it works out to $9M per player. Let's make the math easy and say $10M per player for 20 players. Between Price, Porcello, Pable and Hanley, we need another 5 players to make the league minimum to make it work. Ultimately, you can only have so many players making $10-$30M.

 

I think we have as much of a team that money can buy without going over the limit right now for next three years. I'm shooting to be in the world series at least twice.

 

I have never advocated keeping all these guys. I suggested countless trades with Margot, Guerra and Moncada in them.

 

My point was that if this wasn't "gutting the farm" then no team has ever gutted the farm in the history of MLB.

[moonslav59]

Let's take a closer look at just how much (estimated) money will be available in each of the next few winters (luxury tax dollars):

 

After 2017: $25.5M Total ($13.5M Buch, $6.5M Young, $5.5M Moreland)

Raises: $8.5M Total (Kimbrel $10.5M to $13M (option) & Sale $6.5M to $12.5M)

Arb raises: $31M Total

3rd of 3: Pom ~$4.7M > $8.4M, Kelly ~$2.6M > $3.9M, Ross ~$1.8M > $2.8M

2nd of 3: Bogey ~$5.7M > $10.2MM, Thornburg $2.7M > $4.7M, Holt ~1.7M > $2.7M, Rutledge ~$800K >$1M & Workman $600K >$900K

1st of 3: Betts $550K>~$7M, Smith ~$550K>$5M, Wright ~$550K> $4M& Vaz $550K> $3M

 

NET: Minus $14M (Nothing to spend on free agents to replace anyone we lose)

Replace Moreland with Travis, Young with Swihart and Buch with Owens/Johnson.

 

Assuming we reset the luxury tax this winter, and if we keep everyone, we'll be paying a tax on about $10-14M . Or, we could dump some salary.

 

After 2018:~$50M Total ($22M HanRam, $13M Kimbrel, ~$8.4M Pom, ~$3.9M, Ross ~$2.8M)

Raises: $1M (Sale $12.5M>$13.5M option)

Arb Raises: +$30M Total (Bogey +$6.5M, Thornburg +$3M, Holt +$1M, Rutledge +$500K & Workman +$500K, Betts +$6.5M, Smith +$2.5M, Wright +2M$, Vaz +$1.5M, Erod +$2M, Swihart +$2M, Barnes +$1M, Elias +$500K & Hembree +$500K)

 

We may have close to $20M extra here, but since we were over by $10M from the previous year, we could be at about $10M to spend on replacing a bunch of talent.

 

Devers replaces HanRam and maybe Groome & Owens/Johnson can replace Kimbrel, but who knows.

 

We lose Pablo and Porcello and others the following years, but arb raises will be very high.

 

 

[a700hitter]

I have never advocated keeping all these guys. I suggested countless trades with Margot, Guerra and Moncada in them.

 

My point was that if this wasn't "gutting the farm" then no team has ever gutted the farm in the history of MLB.

I have never seen anyone so miserable about the team's prospects when it is loaded with premium talent, because of the prospect that in 5 or 10 years, we might have a down cycle, especially since we just came out of a cycle where we finished last in 3 out of 4 seasons. That was miserable.

[moonslav59]

I have never seen anyone so miserable about the team's prospects when it is loaded with premium talent, because of the prospect that in 5 or 10 years, we might have a down cycle, especially since we just came out of a cycle where we finished last in 3 out of 4 seasons. That was miserable.

 

I'm not miserable. I'm happy as a pig in s***.

 

I've never seen anyone in so much denial about the future.

 

It's not one prospect, by the way, it was over a dozen.

[moonslav59]

That was miserable.

 

No, miserable was not winning a ring in the first 40 some odd years I followed the Sox.

 

We one one ring in those 4 years while building a farm that was ready to deliver several more over the next 7-10 years.

 

That was heavenly... not misery.

[a700hitter]

I'm not miserable. I'm happy as a pig in s***.

 

I've never seen anyone in so much denial about the future.

 

It's not one prospect, by the way, it was over a dozen.

I am extremely hopeful for 2017 and the next several years, and I will assess 2021-2025 as it starts to come into clearer focus. Right now, it is too distant to for anyone to reliably project success or doom for 2021 - 2025.

Edited December 19, 2016 by a700hitter

[a700hitter]

That was miserable.

 

No, miserable was not winning a ring in the first 40 some odd years I followed the Sox.

 

We one one ring in those 4 years while building a farm that was ready to deliver several more over the next 7-10 years.

 

That was heavenly... not misery.

Since 1967, we have only had a handful of sub .500 seasons and we haven't had 3 last place finishes in 4 years since the years of the Great Depression. Not having competitive baseball in August in 3 of 4 years was pretty miserable for me. Our Hot Stove threads were starting in August, and that really made the post season seem interminably long.

[moonslav59]

Since 1967, we have only had a handful of sub .500 seasons and we haven't had 3 last place finishes in 4 years since the years of the Great Depression. Not having competitive baseball in August in 3 of 4 years was pretty miserable for me. Our Hot Stove threads were starting in August, and that really made the post season seem interminably long.

 

Try going 43 years without a ring and get back to me.

[moonslav59]

I am extremely hopeful for 2017 and the next several years, and I will assess 2021-2025 as it starts to come into clearer focus. Right now, it is too distant to for anyone to reliably project success or doom for 2021 - 2025.

 

So, let's trade Pom, Devers, Groome and Travis for Quintana and get even closer to winning three rings in a row.

[Bellhorn04]

Try going 43 years without a ring and get back to me.

 

You're tacking on an extra decade to that number, aren't you?

[moonslav59]

You're tacking on an extra decade to that number, aren't you?

 

It felt like 43, but you're right; 1971 to 2004 is 33.

 

Still, I'll take the stretch with Ben over those 33 years or heartbreak any day of the week, and not just because of the ring in 2013, but because of the enormous hope I had in our long term future at the end of 2014.

[mvp 78]

Try going 43 years without a ring and get back to me.

 

My stars! What was it like when you were the ONLY Sox fan waiting on a WS? How horrible was that 75 WS for you? Did you ever recover?