Jarren Duran Might Be Turning the Corner At the Plate In August

[Alex Mayes]

The month of August has been kind to Boston Red Sox players up and down the roster. The offense seems to be clicking again, even as the starting rotation and bullpen have taken a bit of a step backward. There’s one player that has really turned his stock around this month, and it may surprise you that I’m the one talking about it.

That’s right, we’re here to give some flowers to Jarren Duran. I’m not here to tell you he’s rediscovered his 2024 self as we’re approaching the playoffs, but he’s looking mostly passable at the plate over the last three weeks and that needs to be celebrated. 

Thus far in August, Duran is slashing .250/.304/.484 with a .335 wOBA, 111 wRC+, and 0.4 fWAR. To go along with that, he’s hit four home runs, driven in six runs, scored 12 times, and swiped three bags. What’s arguably most impressive, though, is his hard-hit rate for the month has jumped up to 53.2%, second only to the 54.5% posted by Willson Contreras. Comparing those two is really just comparing apples to oranges, but if Duran is finally rediscovering how to be an effective offensive player... well, the remainder of the season, and hopefully the postseason, will seem like a much less daunting gauntlet for the Red Sox. 

Multiple members of the Red Sox’s commentating team are fond of telling watchers and listeners of the games that Duran has the ability to ‘spark’ the offense and that it’s been missing for much of the season. There’s likely some truth to that, as Duran is at his best as a leadoff hitter with a knack for getting on base and then being a major threat to steal bags at any point. Of course, us viewers know that his biggest struggle this year has been doing just that.

He was an ineffective leadoff hitter and he has only swiped 18 bags on the season so far. The power is sort of there with him (he has 17 home runs), but it’s been pretty inconsistent and is being carried heavily by the nine home runs he hit during his one hot month in May. Many had hoped that would be the catalyst to turning his slow start around but until now, he’s been arguably the easiest out in the lineup on a nightly basis. 

It’s unclear if this sudden turnaround is here to stay or not. Duran is still in the 19th percentile for chase rate at 35.2%, the sixth percentile for whiff rate at 34%, the 13th percentile in strikeout rate at 28.4%, and the 20th percentile in walk rate at 6.7%. He’s struggling to get on base and striking out far more than he’s walking, but August seems to have pushed him in the right direction so far. He has come through with some clutch hits and driven in runs when the guys in front of him got on base as he’s been moved further down in the lineup. If—and that’s a big if—Jarren Duran can sustain this new level of offensive productivity, then he may yet prove useful to the Red Sox's ultimate ambitions. 

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