A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yanks lost and used Cole tonight.

We got some rest for the pen.

2 GB NYY

Tonight's matchup makes me wince a bit, but winning 3-4 would put us in 2nd.  Absolutely not getting ahead of myself, but that seemed almost impossible at one point.

[UtahSox]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Tonight's matchup makes me wince a bit, but winning 3-4 would put us in 2nd.  Absolutely not getting ahead of myself, but that seemed almost impossible at one point.

Utah Sox lineup tonight doing something different.

1- Sogard SS

2- Rafaela 2b

3-Anthony LF

4- Contreras 1b

5- Abreu RF

6- Gasper DH

7- Rutschman C

8- Durbin 3b

9- Duran CF

 

 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Utah Sox lineup tonight doing something different.

1- Sogard SS

2- Rafaela 2b

3-Anthony LF

4- Contreras 1b

5- Abreu RF

6- Gasper DH

7- Rutschman C

8- Durbin 3b

9- Duran CF

I guess it took adding Anthony to unseat Duran from the 7 slot.

Just when he warms up, they demote him down to the 9 slot.

Hmmmm...

[moonslav59]

I heard the Story decision has to be made before tonight's game. His rehab is up.

Is that true?

[drewski6]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I heard the Story decision has to be made before tonight's game. His rehab is up.

Is that true?

Feel like there would be more buzz about it if true.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Feel like there would be more buzz about it if true.

I think it's wrong because he started his rehab in mid August and I think it goes 30 days.

[vegasbob]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I heard the Story decision has to be made before tonight's game. His rehab is up.

Is that true?

Under the MLB CBA a position player is allowed up to 20 days ( not games) to return to active status.  A pitcher may rehab up to 30 days, with further exceptions for TJS recovery.

So Story should be able to be held back until  at least September 1, helping with the roster jam

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

Under the MLB CBA a position player is allowed up to 20 days ( not games) to return to active status.  A pitcher may rehab up to 30 days, with further exceptions for TJS recovery.

So Story should be able to be held back until  at least September 1, helping with the roster jam

Thanks for the clarification.

[moonslav59]

Speaking of 26 and 40 man rosters, I don't see a major crunch with the 40, but the 26 could get tricky, if our IL numbers are down next year.

Of course someone will be hurt, and maybe even some of the guys already on the 60 day IL, but here is a look see at the 2027 "foundation."

Current 40 Man Roster Players (options remaining)

7 SP'ers: Crochet 3, Suarez 0, Tolle 3, Bennett 3, Oviedo 1, Houck 2, Crawford 2, Burgos 3

9 RP'ers: Chapman, Whitlock 3, Miller 3, Bello 2, Slaten 3, Guerrero 0, Moran 0, Weissert 1, Kelly 1, Samaniego 3, E Rivera 3, A Gamboa 3, Olds 3

Since Guerrero, Moran & Suarez are sure bets to make to 26, having no options does not complicate the pitching decisions. These 21 pitchers could easily become 19 by DFA'ing Olds & Burgos. Rivera, Gamboa & Samaniego- maybe even Kelly could be "bubble" players- traded or DFA'd. Replacing Gray will be tough, and maybe we bring him back, but it's likely we will add a good pitcher- maybe two.

The everyday player choices could get complicated, but with the 26 not necessarily they 40. Plus, we can always trade a middle infielder or a LF'er from Duran, Jones & White. Here is that foundation:

23 players

C: Rutschman 3, Wong 1, Gasper 2

1B: Contreras 0, Romy 2, Casas 3, Harris 1

2B: Mead 0, Monasterio 2, Seigler 2

3B: Durbin 2, Eaton 1, 

SS: Story 0, Sogard 2, Cheng 1

LF: Duran 2, Jones 0

CF: Rafaela 2, White 0

RF: Abreu 2, Campbell 2

DH: Anthony 3, Yoshida 3

Harris and maybe one from White or Jones can be cut loose, easily. That gets it to 21, Duran and Yoshida will be trade talked to death once again. Cheng, Eaton and Casas are bubble.

With no additions and no injuries, my 26 would be:

 

5 SP'ers: Crochet 3, Suarez 0, Tolle 3, Bennett 3, Oviedo 1

8 RP'ers: Chapman, Whitlock 3, Miller 3, Bello 2, Houck 2, Slaten 3, Guerrero 0, Moran 0

 

C: Rutschman 3, Wong 1

1B: Contreras 0

2B: Mead 0, Monasterio 2 or Romy 2

3B: Durbin 2 

SS: Story 0, Sogard 2

LF: Duran 2, Jones 0 or White 0 (not both)

CF: Rafaela 2

RF: Abreu 2,

DH: Anthony 3

AAA notables: Crawford 2, Weissert 1, Kelly 1, Samaniego 3, E Rivera 3, A Gamboa 3, Gasper 2, Campbell 2, Yoshida 3, Casas 3, Seigler 2, Eaton 1, Cheng 1, Monasterio 2 or Romy 2

 

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Speaking of 26 and 40 man rosters, I don't see a major crunch with the 40, but the 26 could get tricky, if our IL numbers are down next year.

Of course someone will be hurt, and maybe even some of the guys already on the 60 day IL, but here is a look see at the 2027 "foundation."

Current 40 Man Roster Players (options remaining)

7 SP'ers: Crochet 3, Suarez 0, Tolle 3, Bennett 3, Oviedo 1, Houck 2, Crawford 2, Burgos 3

9 RP'ers: Chapman, Whitlock 3, Miller 3, Bello 2, Slaten 3, Guerrero 0, Moran 0, Weissert 1, Kelly 1, Samaniego 3, E Rivera 3, A Gamboa 3, Olds 3

Since Guerrero, Moran & Suarez are sure bets to make to 26, having no options does not complicate the pitching decisions. These 21 pitchers could easily become 19 by DFA'ing Olds & Burgos. Rivera, Gamboa & Samaniego- maybe even Kelly could be "bubble" players- traded or DFA'd. Replacing Gray will be tough, and maybe we bring him back, but it's likely we will add a good pitcher- maybe two.

The everyday player choices could get complicated, but with the 26 not necessarily they 40. Plus, we can always trade a middle infielder or a LF'er from Duran, Jones & White. Here is that foundation:

23 players

C: Rutschman 3, Wong 1, Gasper 2

1B: Contreras 0, Romy 2, Casas 3, Harris 1

2B: Mead 0, Monasterio 2, Seigler 2

3B: Durbin 2, Eaton 1, 

SS: Story 0, Sogard 2, Cheng 1

LF: Duran 2, Jones 0

CF: Rafaela 2, White 0

RF: Abreu 2, Campbell 2

DH: Anthony 3, Yoshida 3

Harris and maybe one from White or Jones can be cut loose, easily. That gets it to 21, Duran and Yoshida will be trade talked to death once again. Cheng, Eaton and Casas are bubble.

With no additions and no injuries, my 26 would be:

 

5 SP'ers: Crochet 3, Suarez 0, Tolle 3, Bennett 3, Oviedo 1

8 RP'ers: Chapman, Whitlock 3, Miller 3, Bello 2, Houck 2, Slaten 3, Guerrero 0, Moran 0

 

C: Rutschman 3, Wong 1

1B: Contreras 0

2B: Mead 0, Monasterio 2 or Romy 2

3B: Durbin 2 

SS: Story 0, Sogard 2

LF: Duran 2, Jones 0 or White 0 (not both)

CF: Rafaela 2

RF: Abreu 2,

DH: Anthony 3

AAA notables: Crawford 2, Weissert 1, Kelly 1, Samaniego 3, E Rivera 3, A Gamboa 3, Gasper 2, Campbell 2, Yoshida 3, Casas 3, Seigler 2, Eaton 1, Cheng 1, Monasterio 2 or Romy 2

 

Ouivedo has as much chance contributing as Sandoval  did this year although he was pretty good tonight 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Ouivedo has as much chance contributing as Sandoval  did this year although he was pretty good tonight 

That was an arguable slot I put him in.

[JoeBrady]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

8 RP'ers: Chapman, Whitlock 3, Miller 3, Bello 2, Houck 2, Slaten 3, Guerrero 0, Moran 0

Keeping Houck over Weissert?

[JoeBrady]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

That was an arguable slot I put him in.

A borderline talent, that missed a year due to injury, is very unlikely to be penciled in for a rotation slot.  I think Houck probably has as good a chance coming out of ST as Oviedo, or possibly Crawford .

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Keeping Houck over Weissert?

They both have options, so this is about the 26.

Yes, I think Houck was a great pitcher. He was our ace before the Crochet trade. I think the dip in performance in the second half of 2024 and the start of 2025 was related to his injury. (I could certainly be wrong.)

He had extremely nasty stuff without the way-to-high BB/9 rates many nasty stuff pitchers often do.

I'm probably wishful thinking about him and 2027, but I think he could be great in the pen to finish his career. He may also be our 5th starter over Oviedo and Crawford.

From the start of 2020 to June 10, 2024 Houck had the 18th best ERA- and 27th best ERA in MLB. (300+ IP sample size of 144 pitchers)

He had 54 GS and 33 RP games in that span. Many pitchers had double the IP, but the guy pitched like a top 30 pitcher, IMO.

I'm not sure he can ever get back to that, but I'm pretty sure Weissert and several others can never do that.

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

A borderline talent, that missed a year due to injury, is very unlikely to be penciled in for a rotation slot.  I think Houck probably has as good a chance coming out of ST as Oviedo, or possibly Crawford .

I was kind of surprised when soxprospects.com had Oviedo listed as the 4th or 5th starter for much of the early and min winter months.

The reason I put him there is because I see Houck as a RP'er going forward- maybe Crawford too. I do think Houck or Crawford would be better 5th starters, but I worry more about their health than Oviedo's for whatever reason.

The Sox must have liked him to make that trade.

[moonslav59]

I'm not counting on much from players returning from injuries, and many may never play a game this year.

Some points about some injuries:

Forget Casas and Kelly. No room for them, anyway.

Crawford's status has not been updated since July 17th. What's up with that? Back then, MLB.com reported he was throwing from 100 feet and his ETA was "September at earliest."

Oviedo's last update was July 21st, when he was throwing off the mound. Same ETA as Crawford.

Houck will pitch in scrimmage on Sept 1st in Fort Myers. ETA: possible late season. (I doubt we see him in 2026.)

Yoshida is likely done for 2026. ETA is possible end of season or PS.

Slaten is throwing from 120 feet but has not been on the mound, yet. ETA: September. (Not counting on him returning in time to help)

Mead has started "mobility and strength exercises and is running and throwing," but not hitting yet. ETA: Late season or 2027. (Count on zero for '26)

IKF is in rehab and playing. ETA Sept 1st or later. May not be room for him, and he is out of options.

Story is the big question. He is rehabbing and likely "ready to return," but is doing so poorly on offense, I'm not sure he is ready. ETA: late AUG/early Sept.

Crochet is not listed on MLB.com for some reason, but ESPN says he's throwing with intensity fro 90 feet. CBS says "out until Sept 11th."

Anthony offers the best hope for a meaningful return. He has been in rehab for a while. ETA: late AUG/early Sept.

[notin]

The Jays DFAd Simeon Woods Richardson.  He has no options, but he still might be worth a claim…

[notin]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

Story is the big question. He is rehabbing and likely "ready to return," but is doing so poorly on offense, I'm not sure he is ready. ETA: late AUG/early Sept.

 

AAA stats are meaningless for players coming off rehab …

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

AAA stats are meaningless for players coming off rehab …

Not the stats: he's lost at the plate.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, notin said:

The Jays DFAd Simeon Woods Richardson.  He has no options, but he still might be worth a claim…

no.

[moonslav59]

I'm against adding SWR, but our farm is nearly barren of 40 man roster pitchers.

Olds was just sent down.

Burgos was up for the doubleheader and lost some stock value with his lack of production.

Samaniego is hardly mentioned anymore.

Rivera is on the IL. Slaten is likely toast for the season, and talking about Crochet, Houck, Crawford and Oviedo seems near pointless. None are pitching live farm games. They'll need to do that just to prepare for an adjustment period in the bigs, and we can't afford to experiment with adjustments at the end of the season.

[moonslav59]

The Sox have demonstrated they can make up ground on everybody over a very short period of time, but losing today will make it much harder, as the Yanks are a team we want to pass.

I keep expecting the Rays to have a losing streak/stretch but they keep defying me, ole Pythagorean and a few others. First place is a long shot. Second place will be, if we lose 3 of 4 to NYY.

[moonslav59]

I'd have waited a day or two more on the Story promotion.

[moonslav59]

As much as the Antony and Crochet injuries have gotten so much attention, to me the Mead injury might have been as costly or almost as costly, since it was an add as an adjustment to our in-season needs. The other injuries we have had were sort of dealt with during the preseason, when we decided not to trade Duran, and added so many SP'ers over bats.

Mead's injury was certainly more significant than Story's.

[moonslav59]

Here is a summary of the middle infield roller-coaster ride for 2026. While this has been a reoccurring issue for years, we've actually gotten better results, this year with what I have called the "carrousel of clowns" in recent years.

SS:

We started the season with Story, who sucked even more than 2025's start of the season. As we awaited a repeat of a turn-around, he got hurt and went on the 60 day IL.

Monasterio and IKF took over for about a week, before we moved Mayer to SS (see the 2B log.) IKF played some SS when Mayer sat (vs LHPs,) but then he went on the IL just as he got his OPS up to .705.

Cheng took over shortly before our historic hot streak. Monasterio started playing about half the time after 5 games in a row by Cheng. A moth later, Cheng went down, and Monasterio became the FT SS from July 22 to today, when Story begins the next chapter.

2B has been a near free-for-all.

Mayer won the job, perhaps by default, to start the year with IKF playing against some LHPs. It became a straight platoon, until Story got hurt. Mayer moved to SS, and Sogard was given his first shot at keeping the 2B platoon with IKF, but by the start of June, Monasterio and Seigler replaced Sogard, and IKF went on the IL. It looked like Seigler won the FT job through June, with Romy playing a few games at 2B when not DH'ing. By the end of July, Sogard started his second stint at 2B (and some SS) with Seigler playing a few games at 2B. It was pretty much Sogard-Seigler for all of August, until today. Seigler was demoted and it looks like we will see Story at SS, Sogard at 2B and Monasterio giving Story a breather for a week or two. Maybe Monasterio plays 2B vs LHPs, but Sogard kills LHPs, too. Maybe Sogard plays for Story vs some tough RHPs.

Barring injuries, we will probably see this pattern continue until the season is over:

SS: Story FT with some days off vs RHPs. (Sogard at SS those days.)

2B: Sogard vs LHPs and most RHPs. Seigler may get called back up and play vs some RHPs.

v R- v L splits by Sox Middle Infielders

2026: R/L

.797/.550 Seigler

.773/.741 Sogard

.633/.851 Monasterio

.540/.566 Story, but 2025: .743/.734

Career: 

.769/.916 Story

.685/.592 Seigler

.648/.883 Sogard

.638/.771 Monasterio

These numbers suggest we play:

v RHPs: Seigler, Story or Sogard (Never Monasterio)

v LHPs: Story, Monasterio or Sogard (Never Seigler)

There are only two slots, so maybe:

v R Story at SS (maybe Sogard some) and Seigler at 2B (maybe Sogard)

v L Story at SS and Monasterio at 2B (maybe Sogard)

[JoeBrady]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Anthony offers the best hope for a meaningful return.

Yup, both him and Crochet.  Both guys are legit, big talents.  The rest of the rehabbing guys range from fringy to 'okay'.  Maybe Slaten and Mead, but both are too far away.

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Yup, both him and Crochet.  Both guys are legit, big talents.  The rest of the rehabbing guys range from fringy to 'okay'.  Maybe Slaten and Mead, but both are too far away.

I think both Slaten and Mead never play another 2026 game.

Crochet is our next hope. Maybe the only one.

IKF ain't saving anything.

Houck & Crawford have missed so much time and have yet to begin rehabbing, so I gotta think zilch from both. Oviedo, too.

The roster is likely as good as it gets with the Crochet hope lingering on the outside.

Every team can say "We'd be much better with _____ & ______ off the IL and healthy," but Crochet and Mead would make us AL faves, IMO.