A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[notin]

On 8/14/2026 at 1:10 PM, drewski6 said:

I just want to retire the anti-DH slant.

If you hit .400 and 50 HR, I aint letting you play the field.

If you hit .400 with 50 HRs, you’re likely playing semi-pro ball somewhere because no one in MLB history has ever had a season like that, with the closest one coming in 1921 when Babe Ruth batted .378 with 59 HRs.

If your point is elite hitters should never field, you wouldn’t let Willie Mays play the field?

[jad]

On 8/14/2026 at 2:24 PM, drewski6 said:

I sat next to a smoking hot gal last time i was at fenway.  she moved her seat to come sit next to me cuz i was yelling funny stuff.  It was a fun night.  BUt she was showing me pictures of Cedanne at a camp and talking about how awesome he was as a person,

So not only is Cedanne a nice guy (which gets bonus points with me) but the fact that he is gave me fodder to keep a chat with an absolute smokeshow going.

So you get bonusSKI WAR for this.  SO I wouldnt hate Cedanne sneaking an MVP.

ANd Yordan? I got sick of hearing "just a DH" so to see a DH win it, would be cool to me.  So I wouldnt hate that either.

I think the moral of the story is that I am not a good choice to put in charge of this stuff.  If somebody had a basset hound and let me pet it, they are getting a lot of MVP points.

Dude, I hate to be the one to break this to you, but no chick is seriously attracted to or interested in a guy who yells stupid s*** at a sports venue.   (How many of such mythical creatures. for example, do we find, say, on this site?)

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

If you hit .400 with 50 HRs, you’re likely playing semi-pro ball somewhere because no one in MLB history has ever had a season like that, with the closest one coming in 1921 when Babe Ruth batted .378 with 59 HRs.

Made me think what the best BA & HR seasons are...

20's

Hornsby '22 .401 42

Hornsby '25 .403 39

Ruth '27 .356 60

Ruth '23 .393 41

Ruth '24 .378 46

Gehrig '27 .373 47

Ruth '26 .373 47

Hornsby '29 .380 39

Suttles '26 .425 32

30's

Hack Wilson '30 .356 56

Terry '30 .401 23

Klein '30 .386 40

Ruth '31 .373 46

Gehrig '30 .379 41

Foxx '32 .364 58

Foxx '38 .356 48

Greenberg .315 58

40's

Williams '41 .406 37

Musial '48 .376 39

Williams '49 .343 43

Kiner '49 .310 54

Williams '42 .356 36

50's

Mantle '56 .353 52

Mays .319 51

Kluz .326 49

60's

Mantle '61 .317 54

Mays '65 .317 52

F Robinson '66 .316 49

Cash '61 .361 41

Maris .269 61

70's

Foster '77 .320 52

Aaron '71 .327 47

Rice '78 .315 46

Lynn '79 .333 39

Stargel .295 48

80's

Brett '80 .391 24

Boggs '87 .363 24

Mattingly .352 31

D Murphy .315 44

Canseco '88 .307 42

Oglive .304 41

Jackson .300 41

90's

Walker .379 37

McGwire .299 70

Sosa .308 66

Walker .366 49

McGwire .278 65

Sosa .288 63

Griffey .304 56

McGuire .312 52

Belle .317 50

Bagwell .368 39

Piazza .362 40

Thomas .349 40

00's

Bonds .328 73

Helton .373 42

Sosa .328 64

Bonds .370 46

Bonds .363 45

Pujols .359 43

Vladdy .345 44

Howard .313 58

L Gonzalez .325 57

ARod .300 57

10's

Josh Hamilton .359 32

Cabrera .348 44

Betts .346 32

JDM .330 43

Stanton .281 59

Davis .286 53

Judge .284 52

20's

Judge .311 62

Judge .322 58

Judge .331 53

Ohtani .310 54

Acuna .337 41

Raleigh .247 60

VladJr .311 48

 

 

 

[notin]

2 hours ago, jad said:

Dude, I hate to be the one to break this to you, but no chick is seriously attracted to or interested in a guy who yells stupid s*** at a sports venue.   (How many of such mythical creatures. for example, do we find, say, on this site?)

Hey, maybe she was an obnoxious fan herself.

what might surprise people is I’m deathly silent when I attend games.  I rarely even clap.  So if any of you ever sit next to me, it will not be me who destroys your viewing pleasure. Also bear in mind, I won’t enhance it either. Unless we start talking baseball…

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Made me think what the best BA & HR seasons are...

Hornsby '22 .401 42

Hornsby '25 .403 39

Ruth '27 .356 60

Ruth '23 .393 41

Foxx '32 .364 58

Williams '41 .406 37

Foster '77 .320 52

Walker .379 37

Sosa .308 66

Griffey .304 56

Bagwell .368 39

Bonds .328 73

Sosa .328 64

L Gonzalez .325 57

ARod .300 57

Judge .311 62

Narrowed down....

 

[moonslav59]

Sox XBHs/ABs

52/456 Abreu

48/463 Rafaela

45/388 Contreras

35/389 Durbin

29/241 Monasterio (wow!)

 

[moonslav59]

So, no Slaten & Masa.

Our IL team would be better than several MLB teams, today:

SP: Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo

RP: Whitlock, Slaten, Kelly, Rivera, Berrios

C: Montero (Rut just came off the IL)

1B: Casas

2B: Rodgers

SS: Story

3B: IKF

OF: Anthony & Mead (okay, he's playing a new position)

DH: Yoshida

As stunning as this list looks, we gotta hand it to the bench for helping the team overcome these losses.

Crochet> Tolle

Houck> Early then Sandoval

Crawford> Bennett

Pen injuries> T Guerrero, Moran and Gamboa/Burgos

Story & IKF> Monasterio, Seigler, Sogard, Cheng (IKF for a while)

Mayer> Seigler, Sogard, Monasterio, (IKF for a while)

Anthony> DH:Yoshida, Monasterio & LF: Jones, White

[moonslav59]

Chapman triggered his vesting option and now has another year of team control.

$13M/1

A month ago, that looked great. Now, it still looks pretty good, but some concerns have grown.

[mvp 78]

On 8/15/2026 at 9:53 PM, notin said:

Hey, maybe she was an obnoxious fan herself.

what might surprise people is I’m deathly silent when I attend games.  I rarely even clap.  So if any of you ever sit next to me, it will not be me who destroys your viewing pleasure. Also bear in mind, I won’t enhance it either. Unless we start talking baseball…

I'm pretty sure if their was an entire section of TalkSoxers, it would be one of the quietest sections in the ballpark. 

[mvp 78]

Red Sox overperforming post ASB? Durbin, Rafaela and Monasterio are top 10 in overperforming wOBA.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/post-all-star-break-woba-overperformers-and-underperformers/

Following their 15-game winning streak in July and a 9-game winning streak going into August, Boston was able to propel itself back into the playoff race... When looking at their wOBA comparatively to what was expected, this drop-off was coming... Five hitters have overperformed since the break, three of them in the league-wide top 10, and their output is worth monitoring if you rely on any of these Boston bats.

Ceddanne Rafaela, +.087 (.326 BABIP)
Caleb Durbin, +.085 (.349 BABIP)
Andruw Monasterio, +.061 (.409 BABIP)
Willson Contreras, +.032 (.349 BABIP)
Masataka Yoshida, +.022 (.301 BABIP)

For those rostering Wilyer Abreu or Jarren Duran, they have actually underperformed expected data.... Abreu in particular, almost inexcusably running a .188 BABIP and a .380 wOBA/.398 xwOBA. But I guess that’s what happens when you have 10 home runs in 27 games, and a HR/FB rate of 21.7%. 

[drewski6]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm pretty sure if their was an entire section of TalkSoxers, it would be one of the quietest sections in the ballpark. 

No, im loud and funny.  But i keep it funny and pg-13.

For example, at a friars game, ed cooley back (former coach left on bad terms),,,,everyone yelling "f ed cooley"....too much for me , so i waited until it was quiet and yelled "ed cooley doesnt season his pasta sauce.  How hard is it too add basil and garlic?  blandest marinara in town"

Or the time when i was at a providence bruins ahl game....and a player for the penguins AHL team was in teh box for flopping, and i was yelling, bro, you are in the wrong organization.  If you played for montreal, that would get you called up.....ANd the dude lauged and then gave me a pound through the glass.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Red Sox overperforming post ASB? Durbin, Rafaela and Monasterio are top 10 in overperforming wOBA.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/post-all-star-break-woba-overperformers-and-underperformers/

Following their 15-game winning streak in July and a 9-game winning streak going into August, Boston was able to propel itself back into the playoff race... When looking at their wOBA comparatively to what was expected, this drop-off was coming... Five hitters have overperformed since the break, three of them in the league-wide top 10, and their output is worth monitoring if you rely on any of these Boston bats.

Ceddanne Rafaela, +.087 (.326 BABIP)
Caleb Durbin, +.085 (.349 BABIP)
Andruw Monasterio, +.061 (.409 BABIP)
Willson Contreras, +.032 (.349 BABIP)
Masataka Yoshida, +.022 (.301 BABIP)

For those rostering Wilyer Abreu or Jarren Duran, they have actually underperformed expected data.... Abreu in particular, almost inexcusably running a .188 BABIP and a .380 wOBA/.398 xwOBA. But I guess that’s what happens when you have 10 home runs in 27 games, and a HR/FB rate of 21.7%. 

Yoshida went to the IL, so we may not see what happens to him.

Fred will love these Rafaela numbers.

Are these high BAbip numbers lucky or a result of high LD% and Hard Hit%?

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

"ed cooley doesnt season his pasta sauce.  How hard is it too add basil and garlic?  blandest marinara in town"

Marinara jokes usually bring the house down. The setup wasn't long enough I think.

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Marinara jokes usually bring the house down. The setup wasn't long enough I think.

There is an off topic page for this sort of post.

🫣

[moonslav59]

Remaining Games:

BOS:

2 AZ, 3SFG, 3 at MIA, 4 at NYY, 3 SEA, 4 at BAL, 3 LAA, 3 KCR, 3 at TX, 3 at TBR, 3 CLE, 3 CHC

NYY:

3 at BAL, 3 TOR, 4 HOU, 4BOS, 3 at LAA, 3 at SDP, 3 COL, 3 NYM, 3 at MIN, 3 at AZ, 4 TBR, 3BAL

TBR:

3TOR, 3at BAL, 3 at DET, 3 SDP, 3 NYM, 4 at TEX, 3 at ATL, 3 HOU, 3 ATH, 3 BOS, 4 at NYY, 3 at PHI

The Rays have a few tough stretches and only 2 easy series. They end with 4 v BOS 3 at NYY and 3 at PHI. They better be up 3-4 by then.

I'd say the Yanks have 3 easy series.

BOS 2 easy and 1-2 kinda easy.

[moonslav59]

DET still holds the 2nd spot in the AL run differential lead, despite being in a 3-way tie for the 7th best record in the AL.

+91 BOS

+86 DET

+85 NYY

+53 TBR

+45 NYY

...big gap to -23 SEA and -27 BAL

The Sox remain 8.5 GB TBR and 2.5 behind NYY.

BAL, TEX and DET are all 61-64 and tied for the last WC slot. That's on pace for a 79 win season! 

Remember, someone projected us to win 90 games and miss the WC.

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

 

Pathetic. 

They stuck with Duran for too long. 

Now, he's dragging down the 7 slot numbers.

[moonslav59]

Trivia: When was the last time a whole team failed to K in a game?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

51 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Trivia: When was the last time a whole team failed to K in a game?

I don't believe anyone on the Sox K'd last night. Duran not in the lineup helped make that possible.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I don't believe anyone on the Sox K'd last night. Duran not in the lineup helped make that possible.

Yes, and I heard the last time before that was 2010.

[moonslav59]

The Sox have 3 qualifying RP'ers in the top 17 in ERA.

Granted, ERA is a bad stat for RP'ers, but still...

Big surprise, Bello is #1 at 0.85 and Whitlock & Chapman are #16 & 17.

[Michigan Adam2]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Pathetic. 

They stuck with Duran for too long. 

Now, he's dragging down the 7 slot numbers.

Rut is 3 for 22 and still has a much higher obp than durran 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Michigan Adam2 said:

Rut is 3 for 22 and still has a much higher obp than durran 

But, but, but... Duran hit the ball hard for that last out.

He's starting to heat up!

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

They stuck with Duran for too long. 

After accounting for BABIP, Duran was probably our best lead-off hitter with 9 HRs and a 8/0 SB in 184 ABs.  Unfortunately, Ks also count.  If Anthony can resume his career OBP, that would be a significant upgrade.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

After accounting for BABIP, Duran was probably our best lead-off hitter with 9 HRs and a 8/0 SB in 184 ABs.  Unfortunately, Ks also count.  If Anthony can resume his career OBP, that would be a significant upgrade.

Looks like Yoshida will be out for awhile. That means Anthony can DH when he returns. 

When the Sox face a left-handed pitcher, Anthony can play LF and either Story or Monasterio can DH. 

Neither is replacing Sogard at 2B. He's one of the most solid all-around ballplayers on the roster, and the perfect guy who can get on base from the #9 slot in the batting order so Anthony at leadoff has somebody to drive in. 

Mead's fracture has to be entirely healed before he can impact a baseball that won't impact his wrist. Best hope for him is the postseason, like when Schwarber missed the whole summer in 2016, then raked for the Cubs in the World Series.

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

After accounting for BABIP, Duran was probably our best lead-off hitter with 9 HRs and a 8/0 SB in 184 ABs.  Unfortunately, Ks also count.  If Anthony can resume his career OBP, that would be a significant upgrade.

I'm not sure what BAbip as to do with it, and Eaton/Sogard ad worse BAbip and better OBPs up first.

Of the batters with 40+ PAs in the one slot, OBP:

.347 Antony

.317 Sogard

.310 Yoshida

.265 Duran

,255 Seagler

OPS:

.720 Yosida

,667 Duran

.620 Antony

.577 Sogard & .573 Seigler

Maybe we shoulda tried Rafaela there more often.

.400 OBP and .956 OPS in 10 PAs. Jones has been a beast up first (1.493 in 18 PAs)

 

 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Looks like Yoshida will be out for awhile. That means Anthony can DH when he returns. 

When the Sox face a left-handed pitcher, Anthony can play LF and either Story or Monasterio can DH. 

Neither is replacing Sogard at 2B. He's one of the most solid all-around ballplayers on the roster, and the perfect guy who can get on base from the #9 slot in the batting order so Anthony at leadoff has somebody to drive in. 

Mead's fracture has to be entirely healed before he can impact a baseball that won't impact his wrist. Best hope for him is the postseason, like when Schwarber missed the whole summer in 2016, then raked for the Cubs in the World Series.

Seigler has done very well at 2B, too.

I hope Story's return doesn't mess with our recent middle infield success. The 2B+SS production over the last month or so has been maybe the best month in a very long time for the keystone combo.

OPS last 28 Days

.785 Monasterio

.756 Seigler

.671 Sogard

Since June 26th:

.856 Monasterio

.704 Sogard & .699 Seagler

[Hugh2]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Pathetic. 

They stuck with Duran for too long. 

Now, he's dragging down the 7 slot numbers.

That's always the problem with sticking with someone for too long, no one wants to sell high. 

That be like me suggesting we trade Payton Tolle this offseason.  I'd probably be crucified, but if he's laying eggs in two years everyone will be moaning about why he wasn't traded sooner. 

It's sad, I really like Duran.  I hope he turns it around 

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Seigler has done very well at 2B, too.

I hope Story's return doesn't mess with our recent middle infield success. The 2B+SS production over the last month or so has been maybe the best month in a very long time for the keystone combo.

OPS last 28 Days

.785 Monasterio

.756 Seigler

.671 Sogard

Since June 26th:

.856 Monasterio

.704 Sogard & .699 Seagler

It might, but I wonder how long they will stick with Story. Arias may be an option at some point but no need to rush him and lose the service time or the PPI elegibility next year.  If there's a lock out and he's been added to the 40 he doesn't get any development time next year, but the Sox do lose control so it makes sense to not rush him if Story can hold it down. 

I do wonder though, with how well Arias has been lighting it up if Arias gets the call.  If Story is just laying eggs and looks absolutely awful I wonder if they just call up Arias and plug him in there.