A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, sk7326 said:

Bryan Bello with his appearance today saw his ERA skyrocket to 0.68 in games where he does not pitch in the first inning.  

Randy was so upset, he wants him moved to the rotation.

[moonslav59]

How about Jones and Rogers and their tiny sample sizes adding up to 13 for 27 with 4 doubles and 2 HRs (12 runs and 7 rbi!) An OPS North of 1.400!

We have a bunch of regulars- some "new" at being regular moving up in OPS: here are the leaders...

.927 Contreras (Can he stay over .900?)

.790 Abreu (Can he finish over .800?)

.787 Rafaela (Can he end strong, for once?)

.779 Monasterio (This guy is a doubles machine!)

,747 Yoshida (Kinda earning some respect.)

.730 Durbin (What more can be said?)

.713 Seigler (Nice glove work, too.)

,711 Sogard (blasted Romy to AAA.)

IKF .705 (Was hot when he got hurt- may not see again.)

.701 Wong (waiting on AR to see if demoted)

.675 Anthony (almost out of hope for '26)

________________

.613 Duran (How is he still 3rd in PAs?)

Why isn't he at least up 9th? (No, don't say RBIs, PLEASE!)

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

.613 Duran (How is he still 3rd in PAs?)

Why isn't he at least up 9th? (No, don't say RBIs, PLEASE!)

Brilliant! If Duran bats 9th, he'll have the opportunity to drive in the other 8 guys batting in front of him... least, that's how he figures it (though he's still researching).

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

.613 Duran (How is he still 3rd in PAs?)

Why isn't he at least up 9th? (No, don't say RBIs, PLEASE!)

They never give Duran a day off. Why? He's probably really annoying in the dugout. 

[Nick]

we should give our new white lighting chance to play left field and let Duran rest.

3 positions of needs I thought were 'infield', catcher and outfield. Wasn't there a song, two out of three ain't bad?

Love to see Arias brought up.....why wait if we're going to do it in September? Move our shortstop to 2B until he quits hitting.

[moonslav59]

We shoulda got a LHB OF'er not White, but White's career v RHP is better than Duran's 2026 v R. Both are better v L, as we could have guessed.

Look-See...

Career splits for Jones & White with 2026 for Duran

V L

.808 Jones

.619 White

.567 Duran (.611 career)

v R

.629 White

.628 Duran (.799 career)

.479 Jones

Whitehas speed, too, so that's not a major factor in the decision.

[JoeBrady]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Randy was so upset, he wants him moved to the rotation.

My position always been that would be an off-season move, maybe in the DR or something.  Now I question the need to do it at all.  His 34.2 bulk innings has come in 6 games, or 5.7 IP/G.    And picking an opener comes with a set of advantages by matching L/R openers by opponents.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

My position always been that would be an off-season move, maybe in the DR or something.  Now I question the need to do it at all.  His 34.2 bulk innings has come in 6 games, or 5.7 IP/G.    And picking an opener comes with a set of advantages by matching L/R openers by opponents.

It's less about the handedness and more about missing the top of the order one time. 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We shoulda got a LHB OF'er not White,

You're looking at rotating Duran and Yoshida with another LF/DH.  He'd have to be a righty.

[mvp 78]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

You're looking at rotating Duran and Yoshida with another LF/DH.  He'd have to be a righty.

I think he's looking at just platooning Jones with a different LHB? That's my guess knowing moon. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

You're looking at rotating Duran and Yoshida with another LF/DH.  He'd have to be a righty.

No, I'm looking to bench or demote Duran.

To platoon LF and DH, we needed White or Jones to be a LHB.

[moonslav59]

Can we stop hoping Duran is going to get his head together?

He was great in '24, pretty good in '25, but he sucks now.

.701 since Sept 2024 is lower than IKF's OPS with the Sox and a lot of others. NUFF SAID!

[JoeBrady]

35 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Can we stop hoping Duran is going to get his head together?

I'm thinking he goes on the block with Wong, Durbin, Monasterio, Yoshida, Bello, and everyone else that a fair amount of folks in here wanted to s***-can.  And y'all might be right, but it feels like folks are ignoring 15 HRs and 12/1 SB/CS against righties this year.  There are some good stats buried in those abysmal strikeout rates.

[Maxbialystock]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Randy was so upset, he wants him moved to the rotation.

Maybe next year.  I think the Sox can still use a super long reliever, especially when his non-starter ERA is absolutely lights out.  Too bad Miller had to pitch the first inning and completely screw it up on a stupid and lousy throw to 1b.  That run killed us just as much as Whitlock's in the 8th and Chapman's in the 9th.

I'm I the only one who remembers Daniel Bard who was a great reliever, a lousy starter, and then a reliever who couldn't find the strike zone?    How bad was that?  He was out of MLB from 2014 through 2019.  Then the Rockies brought him back up in covid 2020 with just 25 IP and an ERA of 3.65.  Two seasons later he peaked at 60 IP and an ERA of 1.79.  

 

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How about Jones and Rogers and their tiny sample sizes adding up to 13 for 27 with 4 doubles and 2 HRs (12 runs and 7 rbi!) An OPS North of 1.400!

We have a bunch of regulars- some "new" at being regular moving up in OPS: here are the leaders...

.927 Contreras (Can he stay over .900?)

.790 Abreu (Can he finish over .800?)

.787 Rafaela (Can he end strong, for once?)

.779 Monasterio (This guy is a doubles machine!)

,747 Yoshida (Kinda earning some respect.)

.730 Durbin (What more can be said?)

.713 Seigler (Nice glove work, too.)

,711 Sogard (blasted Romy to AAA.)

IKF .705 (Was hot when he got hurt- may not see again.)

.701 Wong (waiting on AR to see if demoted)

.675 Anthony (almost out of hope for '26)

________________

.613 Duran (How is he still 3rd in PAs?)

Why isn't he at least up 9th? (No, don't say RBIs, PLEASE!)

 

 

I hope one day you will realize you have been barking up the wrong tree.   Yes, Duran's having a bad year, but what you refuse to see is that two very different managers have played him in 110 games with only Abreu with 114 and Rafaela with 113 playing in more games. 

All I'm trying to do is explore the stats wo explain why he's played in 110 games.   Remember Anthony, the Sox highly prized left fielder?  He played in 30 games but only 17 in LF because they also used him as DH.  

Thus my mention of his rbi's (tied for 3d), dingers (3d), total bases (4th), runs scored (4th), and SB's (2d).  

Here's a new one.  Season to date, Duran's total bases with RISP is 3d best and his OPS with RISP is freaking  .823.  

In LF he has 1 error and 7 assists and is tied for the 5th best DWAR in MLB among left fielders.

 

[Maxbialystock]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They never give Duran a day off. Why? He's probably really annoying in the dugout. 

😀

[Maxbialystock]

Back to "A Realistic View, Part Deux"--

The Sox just lost 2 straight to the woebegone A's.   

However, their winning percentage, .547, is still the 3d best of 15 teams in the AL.  If they up it just a smidgen to .549, they win 90 games.  

Their strength is good pitching backed up by good D.   Right now I think 1b, 2b, and SS are the only weak spots on defense.  However, Contreras WAR is 3.9 and Manasterio's is 1.3 because their OPS's are .927 and .779.   Contreras' DWAR is a terrible -0.7, but he has just 4 errors in 879 chances and a .995 Fielding Percentage.  Plus right now I'm starting to like Monasterio at SS.  

Agree with those who worry about the pitching holding up.  On the other hand, Bello is helping, the bullpen overall has been pretty good, and Crochet and other won't stay on the IL forever.  Speaking of which, the hitting will be helped when/if Anthony and Mead return.  Meanwhile, the OPS's in July and August have been pretty good already.   Plus Rutschman is due back this week--think Toronto.  

Overall, it sure looks as though the Sox are back, but different from the big bats and high payrolls of the past.  In their last homestand the Sox averaged over 37,000 attendance.