A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You can never get giddy with this game - although I'm sure Dave O'Brien would disagree.  I'm just watching and enjoying.

I agree. OB? Have you heard Will Flemming go nuts?

[UtahSox]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The offseason? 

Is that standard? I mean the only other time I remember a turn around like this was the Phillies this year, and Mattingly still has interim title. 

[Bellhorn04]

Man, Abreu has some SERIOUS power.  He has been hitting some Schwarber-like bombs, the 420 foot+ kind.  Hats off to Bloom for that trade.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Is that standard? I mean the only other time I remember a turn around like this was the Phillies this year, and Mattingly still has interim title. 

I don't think there's a standard. I just think there is no reason to rush it. They probably already have him under contract and will just see how this season plays out. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Man, Abreu has some SERIOUS power.  He has been hitting some Schwarber-like bombs, the 420 foot+ kind.  Hats off to Bloom for that trade.

8 homers over 420'. 

443 6/23 at COL

435 7/18 vs LAD

431 8/2 at LAD

430 8/4 vs CHW

427 5/8 vs TBR

422 7/30 at A's

422 7/18 vs TBR

421 6/12 vs TEX

 

[Bellhorn04]

50 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I agree. OB? Have you heard Will Flemming go nuts?

No, I don't do radio broadcasts any more.  Maybe I should check it out just for fun.

[mvp 78]

They were absolutely miserable at Fenway early on. Glad they turned it around. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No, I don't do radio broadcasts any more.  Maybe I should check it out just for fun.

The highlights are good. He's a bigtime suck up for ownership though and can be annoying from time to time. If he dialed down his rantings, he'd be better. 

[notin]

45 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Is that standard? I mean the only other time I remember a turn around like this was the Phillies this year, and Mattingly still has interim title. 

The Phillies replacing Girardi with Thomson was a good turnaround, too…

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Even after last night...

My point is that those stats were expected to decline when he went to fulltime.  Going from platoon hitter to fulltime, and maintaining your stats is huge.

[oldtimer]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I have to admit I'm about as high on the Sox as I've been since 2018.

Maybe in part because I really thought Brez did a good job improving on a pretty good 2025 team, and after such a horrific start, the doubts, hyper-criticisms and finger pointing became overwhelming.

It wasn't so much having to feel like maybe Fred, Red, the STORK and others might have been right, but rather how far off it looked like many of us were in our 2026 projections, and more importantly having to watch us piss away so many games we coulda-shoulda won.

Our run differential was always much better than our record indicated, but that offered very little solace and just a tiny fraction of hope for just a handful of posters and fans.

I'm not predicting a ring or the best record in the AL or ALE, but I will say this team is fun to watch. We improved the team on paper at the deadline, especially our worst batter (Narvaez) and added some OF and pen depth.

If we get nobody back from the IL. except Rutschman, we'll still have a top contending team. Guys like Anthony, Crochet and maybe even Crawford, Oviedo and IKF may make significant contributions.

With 50 games left, if we win half of those we wind up with 86 wins. We will probably be better than a 500 team so 90  wins is qu ite possible, which means a playoff position. With what we have returning, we are a threat in the playoffs. None of this looked likely a month ago. Time to congradulate Breslow for his actions.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Only the offense was terrible. The pitching and defense were very good. Even at 14 games under.500 the Sox run differential was a plus.

So I disagree that the team as a whole was terrible.

We had discussions about this at the time.  Our W/L record in one-run games v non-one-run games:

• Mar 0-2    1-2
• Apr 2-2     9-13
• May 3-5    10-9
• Jun 1-3      11-11
• Jul 5-1      16-3
• Aug 1-0    2-0

Obviously July is the outlier, but the other months looks fairly normal once you adjust for one-run games.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think the longest hot streak I've seen a team have was the 1984 Tigers, who started the season 35-5.  

So, only 8 straight more?

[moonslav59]

The Soxprospects.com podcast mentioned thinking there might not be an innings limit on Tolle & Bennett.

They loved the AR trade and mentioned he has a higher WAR in way less games than the team as a whole. They thought adding Azocar was overkill, but needed to get him. "Both can be true: it's a ridiculous overpay and a good trade for the Sox." Even if he doesn't ever play like his first 2 seasons, if he stays healthy, he's a 3-4 WAR catcher, which is a huge upgrade.

They kinda talked up Gutierrez. He was 20-25 in SF's system, which is a pretty good system. High A with good numbers and high contact rates. Probably LF'er due to arm. Fast and has some power. "No path for Mayer here... He gets back to California."

No rental deals- not bad for 4 deadline deals.

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Soxprospects.com podcast mentioned thinking there might not be an innings limit on Tolle & Bennett.

They loved the AR trade and mentioned he has a higher WAR in way less games than the team as a whole. They thought adding Azocar was overkill, but needed to get him. "Both can be true: it's a ridiculous overpay and a good trade for the Sox." Even if he doesn't ever play like his first 2 seasons, if he stays healthy, he's a 3-4 WAR catcher, which is a huge upgrade.

They kinda talked up Gutierrez. He was 20-25 in SF's system, which is a pretty good system. High A with good numbers and high contact rates. Probably LF'er due to arm. Fast and has some power. "No path for Mayer here... He gets back to California."

No rental deals- not bad for 4 deadline deals.

MLB network was discussing the Rut Man, and what they were discussing is that Rut Man isn’t the same player he was his first 2-3 years, and maybe not staying healthy may have something to do with it. We don’t know about rentals yet, and that will depend on what kind of season happens next year, and if the Red Sox can resign Rut Man. Even if the Red Sox don’t limit Tolle, and Bennett they may limit themselves results with this being their first heavy workload.

[Maxbialystock]

22 hours ago, Nick said:

I'll have what Moon's drinking....

Me too.  

 

22 hours ago, Nick said:

I'll have what Moon's drinking....

 

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Old Red said:

MLB network was discussing the Rut Man, and what they were discussing is that Rut Man isn’t the same player he was his first 2-3 years, and maybe not staying healthy may have something to do with it. We don’t know about rentals yet, and that will depend on what kind of season happens next year, and if the Red Sox can resign Rut Man. Even if the Red Sox don’t limit Tolle, and Bennett they may limit themselves results with this being their first heavy workload.

I don't think we traded for that 2-3 Rut. I think we knew that was a long shot. How many games he can play is a big part of his value and projected value.

Last 2 years: despite a .713 OPS (still 101 OPS+) his bWAR is 3.8 over 157 games and 649 PAs. They'd take that in a heartbeat. They'd tale a 3.2 bWAR in 130 games, too.

His 2025-2026 fWAR is 3.5, so over 130 games that might project to 3.0. I think the Sox would be fine with that too.

The team fWAR at Catcher is 0.2, this year and was 1.8 last year. That's much worse than 3.0 to 3.5.

Is that upgrade worth giving up 3 top 6 prospects plus Narvaez? Games played will likely give us the answer, but he could do worse or better when he plays, too.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't think we traded for that 2-3 Rut. I think we knew that was a long shot. How many games he can play is a big part of his value and projected value.

Last 2 years: despite a .713 OPS (still 101 OPS+) his bWAR is 3.8 over 157 games and 649 PAs. They'd take that in a heartbeat. They'd tale a 3.2 bWAR in 130 games, too.

His 2025-2026 fWAR is 3.5, so over 130 games that might project to 3.0. I think the Sox would be fine with that too.

The team fWAR at Catcher is 0.2, this year and was 1.8 last year. That's much worse than 3.0 to 3.5.

Is that upgrade worth giving up 3 top 6 prospects plus Narvaez? Games played will likely give us the answer, but he could do worse or better when he plays, too.

I agree that games played will determine a lot, and if he can be resigned.

[Maxbialystock]

20 minutes ago, Old Red said:

MLB network was discussing the Rut Man, and what they were discussing is that Rut Man isn’t the same player he was his first 2-3 years, and maybe not staying healthy may have something to do with it. We don’t know about rentals yet, and that will depend on what kind of season happens next year, and if the Red Sox can resign Rut Man. Even if the Red Sox don’t limit Tolle, and Bennett they may limit themselves results with this being their first heavy workload.

Rutschman was a good get even if he isn't what he was his first two seasons.  Did you notice the Orioles used him a ton as DH his 2d and 3d years?  This year, his 5th, his OPS is a very credible .764 in just 67 games.   For a 3 time All-Star, his $7.25M salary is very reasonable.  

No doubt the Sox will keep careful track of Tolle and Bennett, but the Sox also seem to have an almost endles supply of SP's.  But I also think your point is well taken in that pitching (and good D) are crucial to this team.  

[Maxbialystock]

5 hours ago, oldtimer said:

With 50 games left, if we win half of those we wind up with 86 wins. We will probably be better than a 500 team so 90  wins is qu ite possible, which means a playoff position. With what we have returning, we are a threat in the playoffs. None of this looked likely a month ago. Time to congradulate Breslow for his actions.

All good and timely points.  Completely agree Breslow is the architect of this astounding season.  

[dannycater]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's been a long time coming for Part II, and yes 340 pages is too much to bear.

What a crazy season! In many ways, the team of the last 4-5 weeks is the same as the one from opening day to mid June, but in other ways, it's like night and day. The 40 man roster has not changed much until the Mead and deadline trades. Sure, there were additions as we put guys on the 60 Day IL, but a few were already in the Sox system.

Before I go into the new roster, I want to give a shout out to the bench. Much of the huge turn-around was fueled by SP'ers that we maybe 6th to 11th on the rotation depth chart: Tolle, Early (now gone,) Bennett and Sandoval. We've seen 18 different pitchers fill the 7 pen splots, yet our pen is one of the best in the league in fWAR and ERA-, among other stats. 9 pitchers have 20+ IP from the pen, while 13 have 13+ IP. We have a solid 7, now and are arguing over who to demote to make room for Miller.

Wong pretty much pushed Narvaez to the bench and a trade, although him sucking helped.

2B and SS have changed hands more times than anyone can name.

DH has been all over the map.

Only 1B (Contreras) 3B (Durbin) and the OF has gone pretty much subless.

There may still be some major roster changes to come, as our IL list can almost field a whole decent team, by itself:

SP: Crochet, Houck, Crawford & Oviedo

RP: Kelly & La Sorsa

C Rutschman

1B: Casas

2B: Mead

SS: Story

3B: IKF

OF/DH: Anthony

Some may/will not make a 2026 showing, but damn, this team seems to not need any of them, except Rutschman and maybe one pitcher to take innings from Tolle and Bennett, but hey, maybe Bello can handle the load.

Our rotation is among the best in MLB and could get better.

Our pen is top 2-3 in almost every category.

Our hitting still lacks multiple power bats, but the offense has come around to be around 10th to 14th best- maybe even top 10.

Our defense has been rock solid at nearly every slot.

We've been the best team in baseball for 5-6 weeks, and nobody has really been close. We've beaten the best of the best teams, and seem to have the focus and confidence to carry us at a good pace going forward.

I seriously doubt we can continue at this pace, but what a glory it has been. Rafaela has really come into his own, and Durbin flicked the team's light switch almost by himself. The team attitude seems just right. Contreras has brought a good kinda "edge" to the team's personality, and I love it.

It's hard not to be supremely optimistic about our chances. We will likely have a tough stretch or two before the season ends, but I like the fight in this team. They don't give up, despite Fred saying "game over."

Kudos to everyone, including Tracy and Brez.

Let's keep it "real" on this thread, and....

Go Sox!

Monasterio and Sogard's defense in the Dodger series and a few big OF throws by Abreu and Cedann were part of why Sox are continuing this streak of greatness. Hitters all rubbing off each other, but the defense has been exceptional, the pen is outright ridiculously great (and added Miller). I got to really watch Monasterio and this guy is like what Cabrera did in 2004 but better to me. Duran might be the "worst player statistically in MLB" according to him even! and he sucked so bad that his 19 RBI in July was 2nd among Red Sox players behind the red-hot Rafeala...I'm drinking whatever moon is drinking and whatever Breslow is offering. Go Sox!

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I agree that games played will determine a lot, and if he can be resigned.

The games played also plays into the worthiness of an extension and how much is the extension and years.

I don't agree with blanket statements like "A" if we extend him and "B" if we don't. What if he plays less games for us?

What if he plays 75% of the game but hits .625?

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

The games played also plays into the worthiness of an extension and how much is the extension and years.

I don't agree with blanket statements like "A" if we extend him and "B" if we don't. What if he plays less games for us?

What if he plays 75% of the game but hits .625?

What worries me some is the medicals were the hold up, and if the Red SOX medical staff gave the OK.

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, dannycater said:

Monasterio and Sogard's defense in the Dodger series and a few big OF throws by Abreu and Cedann were part of why Sox are continuing this streak of greatness. Hitters all rubbing off each other, but the defense has been exceptional, the pen is outright ridiculously great (and added Miller). I got to really watch Monasterio and this guy is like what Cabrera did in 2004 but better to me. Duran might be the "worst player statistically in MLB" according to him even! and he sucked so bad that his 19 RBI in July was 2nd among Red Sox players behind the red-hot Rafeala...I'm drinking whatever moon is drinking and whatever Breslow is offering. Go Sox!

As "high as I am," I gave the deadline trades a "C," and am not yet sold on the "fixing" of the middle infield.

I want more than anything to believe in Monasterio at SS and Seigler>Mead at 2B. Sogard looks nice as the utility guy going forward and Arias is a top 5 prospect in all of baseball. We even have Romy as a possible platoon place, one he properly "rehabs," again.

It's hard not to be happy about our current middle infield, but to use Red's words, all these guys are "suspect," even Mead,

I'm not being a downer, here, but there was a reason I had SS as my second choice to Catcher in our everyday needs priority rankings. You know my "love" for Duran, but I still had SS higher ranked than LF/DH.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

What worries me some is the medicals were the hold up, and if the Red SOX medical staff gave the OK.

I'm not sure the medical staff is as bad as many think it is. They often hold back all the information they know, and it's not their fault these guys get hurt on their couches, while on the IL.

[dannycater]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

As "high as I am," I gave the deadline trades a "C," and am not yet sold on the "fixing" of the middle infield.

I want more than anything to believe in Monasterio at SS and Seigler>Mead at 2B. Sogard looks nice as the utility guy going forward and Arias is a top 5 prospect in all of baseball. We even have Romy as a possible platoon place, one he properly "rehabs," again.

It's hard not to be happy about our current middle infield, but to use Red's words, all these guys are "suspect," even Mead,

I'm not being a downer, here, but there was a reason I had SS as my second choice to Catcher in our everyday needs priority rankings. You know my "love" for Duran, but I still had SS higher ranked than LF/DH.

It's the defense though..they upgraded the catcher hitting, so it was one or the other...I think Monasterio will continue to hit, and I think I don't care if Mead comes back or not--not the best defender...Mojo is mojo. I was happy with a lefty RP and an All-Star catcher. But totally get your points.

[Old Red]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure the medical staff is as bad as many think it is. They often hold back all the information they know, and it's not their fault these guys get hurt on their couches, while on the IL.

It just seems that most of the injured have taken not just longer, but a Lot longer to come back after being injured than what was first reported, or expected.

[Old Red]

40 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

As "high as I am," I gave the deadline trades a "C," and am not yet sold on the "fixing" of the middle infield.

I want more than anything to believe in Monasterio at SS and Seigler>Mead at 2B. Sogard looks nice as the utility guy going forward and Arias is a top 5 prospect in all of baseball. We even have Romy as a possible platoon place, one he properly "rehabs," again.

It's hard not to be happy about our current middle infield, but to use Red's words, all these guys are "suspect," even Mead,

I'm not being a downer, here, but there was a reason I had SS as my second choice to Catcher in our everyday needs priority rankings. You know my "love" for Duran, but I still had SS higher ranked than LF/DH.

Sometimes players get exposed the more they play, but so far it hasn’t happened with the makeshift MI.👏

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It just seems that most of the injured have taken not just longer, but a Lot longer to come back after being injured than what was first reported, or expected.

I don't disagree, but maybe the medical team did not want to give all the info and they werent really wrong. Hard to know. Being wrong on the timeline does not mean they messed up treatments- not that you are saying they did. Finally, some of our players on the IL (Casas, Crawford and maybe Sandoval and others) injured themselves while on the IL. I'm not sure any were because the medstaff did anything wrong.

Here in HOU, I hear the same about the Astros med staff, so I wonder. (They seem to mis guess the time out worse than we do.)

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Sometimes players get exposed the more they play, but so far it hasn’t happened with the makeshift MI.👏

True, but their sample sizes are small, this year.

This is Monasterio's 4th season and not his longest to date. This could be a fluke or just a break out year. (92 gms in 23, then 59 and 68 before 72, this year.) He did hit ,755 last year, so he now has a decent sample of continuous decent hitting. 140 games at .767- a 114 OPS+. Maybe I should believe more than I do!!!

This is just Seigler's second MLB season. 34 gms in 2025 (.501) and 36 this year (.690.) Not good but his D has been. (dWAR from -0.2 to +0.6) He's 27 and hit .875 at AAA in 466 PAs, However he hit between ,679 and .737 at other levels. (.747 minors career)

I'm loving what I'm seeing, but with the bat, Seigler has not convince me. Looking over these numbers and seeing Monasterio look good on D, I'm believing more than a few minutes ago,